楊榮文 中國必須做好與美國長期鬥爭的準備

中國必須做好與美國長期鬥爭的準備

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1300824.shtml

作者：環球時報發布時間：2023 年 10 月 30 日

編者注：

隨著APEC領導人會議在即，中美高層互動增多，釋放出美方希望對華關係穩定甚至改善的信號。 新加坡前外交部長楊榮文在近期接受環球時報記者李愛新、白雲逸專訪時對《環球時報》記者表示，即使出現新的氣球事件，雙邊關係也不會再次偏離正軌。 北京巡演。 楊還強調，中國必須做好與美國長期鬥爭的準備。 這是因為，至少目前，美國不信任中國。 但中國如何做好準備呢？ “中國知道該怎麽做，”楊說。

環球時報：隨著中美高層交往的增多，以及APEC會議的召開，您認為近期中美關係是否會發生變化？

楊：短期內，我認為美國希望與中國的雙邊關係穩定，甚至可能有所改善。 人們預計習近平主席將在舊金山會見喬·拜登總統，因為已經做了很多準備工作。

一年前，他們在印度尼西亞巴厘島進行了一次很好的會麵，持續了三個多小時。 不幸的是，達成的共識因氣球事件而脫軌。 氣球事件可能破壞一項廣泛的協議，這一事實表明它是多麽脆弱。 我相信，對於這次會議，我們已經做了更多的準備。 因此，即使發生新的氣球事件，雙邊關係也不會偏離正軌，因為雙方現在的互動更加深入。

關鍵是，美國短期內不希望雙邊關係惡化。 部分原因是美國方麵烏克蘭戰爭沒有取得太大進展。 還有人擔心經濟嚴重下滑，美國需要與中國合作。 如果沒有開放的渠道，一旦發生危機，可能就沒有時間就如何從概念上應對經濟挑戰達成共識。

我認為這是美國想在一定程度上改善對華關係的兩個主要原因。

GT：從長遠角度來看，您認為兩國關係將走向何方？

楊潔篪：從長遠來看，中美關係仍將緊張、困難。 兩者之間的較量還會持續一段時間，因為中國很有可能成為世界第一大經濟體。 美國感覺自己的世界主導地位受到中國的威脅，美國人很難接受這一點。 他們甚至擔心中國想要取代或取代美國成為世界第一。 中國一再表示沒有這樣的野心，但美國不太相信中國。 美國認為，一旦中國經濟強大了，它就會想重蹈西方列強強大時的覆轍。 在這一點上，我認為他們對中國曆史和中華文明還不夠了解。

中國必須要有耐心。 在形成更穩定的立場之前，雙方必須經過一段時間的相互考驗。 中國必須做好與美國長期鬥爭的準備。 美國政治也經曆周期性變化。 一直都有選舉。 反華情緒很容易激化，給所有候選人施加壓力，要求他們采取某些立場。

GT：對於中國如何與不願相信中國的美國進行溝通和互動，您有什麽建議嗎？

楊：我不應該給中國提供建議。 中國知道該怎麽做。 中國不會讓（緊張局勢）升級。 但與此同時，它也不希望自己的反應被誤認為是軟弱。 它必須表現出堅定性。 與此同時，中國必須能夠向中國人民解釋自己的立場，他們也在評判自己的政府，希望自己的政府強大而不是弱小。 這是必須達到的平衡。

GT：您一直在討論即將到來的多極世界。 您認為中美在未來的世界中可以扮演什麽角色？
楊：世界正在走向多極化。 美國之所以抵製，是因為它習慣於在世界上占據主導地位和卓越地位。 現在使我們能夠自由交流、旅行和貿易的許多製度都是由美國在二戰後塑造的。 美國發現其中一些機構不再按照其國家利益行事。 結果，我們看到美國將其中一些機構武器化，並將長期確立的做法武器化。 我想說的是，美國現在處於防禦地位。 感覺必須保護自己的利益。
中國應該對世貿組織等機構的改革采取建設性態度，讓美國變得更重要

我仍然覺得在他們內部工作而不是在他們之外工作會有所收獲。

環球時報：香山論壇正在北京舉行，討論安全合作。 您如何看待中國的全球安全願景及其對地區衝突的應對？

楊：對於中美兩國的國防機構和兩支軍隊來說，能夠相互溝通以避免發生意外非常重要。

不出所料，中國對遙遠衝突的反應一直是謹慎的。

中國在俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間進行了非常仔細的三角衡量。 它不希望俄羅斯崩潰，因為這不符合中國的利益。 與此同時，它不想提供武器，因為那是選邊站隊。 中國一直在告訴各方：我不想卷入你們的戰爭，但有一天需要重建時，我們會提供幫助。 中國是俄烏衝突的和平締造者，而不是麻煩製造者。

以巴衝突也是如此。 中方對哈馬斯的所作所為表示明確譴責，但對巴勒斯坦人民幾十年來遭受的不公正現象表示同情。 同時也在告訴以色列，中國不是對手。 這是中國常駐聯合國代表最近針對以色列的批評作出的回應。 他說，把中國視為對手是錯誤的。 中方一貫主張兩國方案，同等重視以色列和巴勒斯坦雙方的安全關切和合法權利。

中國一直非常小心，避免不必要地選邊站隊，並盡可能謹慎地進行三角測量。 我們不應該火上澆油。 我們應該成為和平締造者，而不是麻煩製造者。

然而，你必須預料到，當采取平衡立場時，雙方一開始可能會對你不滿意，因為雙方都希望你站在自己一邊。 但隨著時間的推移，當主角們因戰爭、暴力而疲憊不堪時，他們就會欣賞中國的溫和立場。

GT：您如何看待美國的反應？

楊：美國陷入了困境。 它與以色列有著長期的關係。 以色列也已成為美國國內政治的一部分。 選舉即將到來，因此美國的立場部分取決於選舉因素。

環球時報：近來，中菲之間的緊張局勢不斷加劇。 一些觀察人士認為，美國正在煽動菲律賓引發亞洲代理人戰爭。 您如何看待南海成為下一個爆發點的可能性？

楊潔篪：目前仁愛礁（菲律賓人稱之為仁愛礁）的緊張局勢是菲律賓幾年前在中國控製的環礁上擱淺一艘載著少量船員的舊船造成的。 這就是當前緊張局勢的原因。 中國不想強行拆除這艘船。 船體正在生鏽並破裂。 那裏的船員需要食物和水。 中國允許提供食物和水，但不允許修複這艘船，希望它能夠解體，問題會自行解決。

我希望這種緊張局勢不會失控。 這是一件小事，不應該讓它變成大事。 不出所料，美國支持菲律賓。 我隻希望美國的支持不會鼓勵菲律賓承擔不必要的風險，因為那樣中國將被迫做出反應。 至關重要的是，中國和菲律賓必須在政治層麵上進行會晤並進行對話，並妥善處理問題。

GT：一些觀察家表示，隨著世界範圍內衝突的加劇，美國的實力可能會過度擴張。 您認為俄羅斯與烏克蘭衝突、以色列與巴勒斯坦衝突會增加還是減少台海爆發衝突的風險？

楊：巴勒斯坦發生的事情將國際關注的焦點從烏克蘭轉移到了中東。 這對烏克蘭不利，因為烏克蘭無法獨自維持這場戰爭。 它需要西方的幫助。

烏克蘭戰爭和巴勒斯坦問題都分散了人們對台海的注意力，因為每個領導人的資源都是有限的，緊張的精力也隻有這麽多。

將時間和精力投入到兩個危機領域已經夠困難的了。 美中關係略有好轉，有利於緩解台海緊張局勢。

GT：您認為其他國家可以采取哪些措施來緩解中美之間的緊張關係？

楊：歐洲可以發揮非常重要的作用。 如果中國表現過度，歐洲就應該向美國傾斜一點。 這將限製中國。 同樣，如果美國的行為不合理，歐洲也應該與美國保持一定的距離，從而克製其行為。 歐洲可以在維護世界和平與穩定方麵發揮關鍵的平衡作用。

當我們自己的利益沒有受到直接影響時，東盟拒絕選邊站隊，因為我們認為選邊站隊沒有任何好處

es. 東盟希望對所有大國保持中立和友好，不僅對中國和美國，而且對印度、歐洲、日本和其他國家。 如果任何大國試圖欺淩東盟，我們就會轉向其他方向。 這將阻止欺淩行為。 這一直是東盟的戰略，即在大國之間動態平衡、對各方都有利。

於是，王道涵（時任大陸海峽兩岸關係協會會長）和辜振甫（時任台灣海峽交流基金會理事長）在新加坡首次會麵。 習主席與台灣島前領導人馬英九的會談也在新加坡舉行。 幾年前，時任美國總統唐納德·特朗普在新加坡會見了朝鮮領導人金正恩，隨後又在河內會麵。

許多國家定期參加東盟地區論壇。 每個人都坐在東盟談判桌旁。 東盟對每個人都很友好，每個人都在東盟感到舒適和受歡迎。 這就是去年G20巴厘島峰會如此成功的原因。

GT：新加坡會發揮更積極的調解作用嗎？

楊：新加坡的角色非常一致。 我們是和平締造者，我們絕不是麻煩製造者。 我們希望大國進行對話、妥協，因為這將有助於和平，也符合我們自己的利益。 我們不會從大國衝突中獲得任何好處。

事實上，如果我們的朋友互相爭吵，我們會感到非常不舒服。 我們鼓勵他們在東盟訪問時保持禮貌和通情達理。

環球時報：當前，中國也麵臨著經濟增速放緩等挑戰。 您對中國國內政治經濟形勢有何看法？

楊：我認為中國目前的經濟放緩不是很嚴重。 該國仍在適應新冠疫情的結束。 政府認為房地產行業過度投資的方式並不健康。 太多人購買房屋和公寓作為一種賺錢的單向賭注。 這導致經濟資源過度配置到房地產。 通過阻止它，政府必須注意係統性影響，因為房地產存在於每家公司的資產負債表上。

中國也有失業問題，但是中國有很多政策、靈活性。 新冠疫情期間，中國不必印鈔。 事實上，其他國家印的錢有很大一部分是中國收的。 在財政上，中國政府處於強勢地位。 與其他主要經濟體相比，中國的利率仍呈下降趨勢，這意味著政府有很大的財政空間來應對經濟下滑。 因此我對中國經濟持謹慎樂觀的態度。 這對整個世界都有好處。

China must be prepared for protracted struggle with the US

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1300824.shtml

By Global TimesPublished: Oct 30, 2023

 

 

Editor's Note: 

With the APEC leaders' meeting just around the corner, increasing high-level interactions between China and the US signal that the US wants its relations with China to stabilize and even improve. Even if there's a new balloon incident, bilateral ties will not be blown off course again, George Yeo (Yeo), former Singaporean minister of foreign affairs, told Global Times (GT) reporters Li Aixin and Bai Yunyi in an exclusive interview during his recent tour in Beijing. Yeo also stressed that China must be prepared for a period of protracted struggle with the US. This is because, at least for now, the US does not trust China. But how does China get prepared? "China knows what to do," Yeo said.


GT: With the increasing high-level interactions between China and the US, as well as the upcoming APEC meeting, do you think there may be changes in China-US relations in the near future? 

Yeo: In the short term, I believe the US wants bilateral relations with China to stabilize, perhaps even to improve a little bit. There's an expectation that President Xi Jinping will meet President Joe Biden in San Francisco, because a lot of preparatory work has been done.

They had a good meeting in Bali, Indonesia, one year ago, which lasted over three hours. Unfortunately, the consensus reached was derailed by the balloon incident. The fact that the balloon incident could derail a broad agreement shows how fragile it was. I believe for this coming meeting, much more preparations have already been made. So even if there's a new balloon incident, bilateral ties will not be blown off course because both sides have interacted with one another much more deeply now. 

The point is, the US, in the short term, doesn't want bilateral relations to get worse. This is partly because the war in Ukraine is not making much progress from the US side. There is also concern about a serious economic downturn, and the US needs to cooperate with China. Without open channels, if a crisis arises, there may be no time to reach a mutual understanding on how to conceptually address economic challenges. 

I think these are the two main reasons why the US wants to improve its relations with China to a certain degree.


GT: From a long-term perspective, where do you think the relationship is headed?

Yeo: In the longer term, China-US relations will remain tense and difficult. This trial of strength between the two will continue for a while, because China is very likely to become the world's largest economy. The US feels that its dominance in the world is threatened by China, and it's hard for Americans to accept this. They even fear that China will want to replace or displace the US as No.1 in the world. China said repeatedly that it has no such ambition, but the US doesn't quite believe China. The US thinks that once China becomes economically strong and powerful, it will want to do what the Western powers did when they became strong and powerful. In this, I believe they don't understand Chinese history and Chinese civilization enough.

China has to be patient. There has to be a period of time where both sides test each other before a more stable position crystallizes. China must be prepared for a period of protracted struggle with the US. US politics also goes through periodic changes. There are elections all the time. It's easy for emotions against China to become inflamed, putting pressure on all candidates to take certain positions. 


GT: Do you have any advice on how China could communicate and interact with a US that does not want to believe China?

Yeo: It's not for me to give advice to China. China knows what to do. China will not escalate (tension). But at the same time, it does not want its reaction to be mistaken as weakness. It has to show firmness. At the same time, China must be able to explain its position to the Chinese people who are also judging their own government and wanting their own government to be strong and not weak. This is the balance that has to be struck. 


GT: You have been discussing the coming multipolar world. What roles do you think China and the US can play in this future world? 

Yeo: The world is becoming multipolar. The US resists it because it's used to being dominant and preeminent in the world. Many of the institutions that now enable us to communicate, travel and trade freely were shaped by the US after WWII. The US is finding that some of these institutions are no longer acting in its national interest. As a result of, we see the US weaponizing some of these institutions, and weaponizing the long-established practices. I would say that the US is now in a defensive position. It feels that it's got to protect its own interests.

China should take a constructive attitude to the reform of institutions like the WTO and it's important to make the US continue to feel that it gains by working within them rather than working outside them. 
 

George Yeo Photo: Yu Jiayin/GT

GT: The Xiangshan Forum is being held in Beijing to discuss security cooperation. How do you view China's global security vision and its response to regional conflicts?

Yeo: It is important for Chinese and US' defense establishments and for the two armed forces to be able to communicate with one another in order to avoid accidents. 

China has been predictably cautious in its response to distant conflicts. 

Between Russia and Ukraine, China has triangulated very carefully. It doesn't want Russia to collapse, because that would not be in China's interests. At the same time, it doesn't want to supply weapons, because that's taking sides. China has been telling various parties: I don't want to be involved in your war, but one day when reconstruction is needed, we will be there to help. China is a peacemaker, not a troublemaker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

It's the same with the Israel-Palestine conflict. China has taken a clear position condemning what Hamas has done but is sympathetic to the injustices suffered by the Palestinian people over decades. At the same time, it is telling Israel that China is not an opponent. That was what China's permanent representative in the UN said recently, in response to Israeli criticism. He said, it is wrong to treat China as an opponent. China has long upheld a two-state solution and pays equal importance to the security concerns and legitimate rights of both Israel and Palestine.

China has been very careful not to take sides unnecessarily and to triangulate as carefully as possible. We should not add fuel to the fire. We should be peacemakers, not troublemakers. 

However, you have to expect that when taking a balanced position, both sides may be unhappy with you at first, because each side wants you to be on its side. But over time, when the protagonists are exhausted by war, by violence, they will appreciate China's moderate position. 


GT: How do you view the US response? 

Yeo: The US is caught in a difficult position. It has a longstanding relationship with Israel. Israel has also become part of US domestic politics. Elections are coming up, so the US position is partly conditioned by electoral considerations. 


GT: Tensions between China and the Philippines have been on the rise lately. Some observers believe the US is inciting the Philippines to trigger an Asia proxy war. What's your take on the possibility of the South China Sea becoming the next flashpoint? 

Yeo: The current tension over Ren'ai Reef, or what the Filipinos call Second Thomas Shoal, is the result of the Philippines beaching an old ship with a small crew on an atoll which was controlled by China some years ago. This is the cause of the current tension. China doesn't want to remove the hulk forcefully. The hulk is rusting and breaking up. The crew there needs to be fed and provided with water. China is allowing food and water, but not allowing the hulk to be repaired, hoping that it will disintegrate and the problem will solve itself. 

I hope this tension will not get out of control. It is a small matter which should not be allowed to become big. The US predictably supports the Philippines. I only hope that US' support does not encourage the Philippines to take unnecessary risks, because China would then be forced to react. It's critical that at a political level, China and the Philippines meet and talk and keep the problem in proportion. 


GT: Some observers say the US power may be overstretched as conflicts worldwide intensify. Do you think the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel-Palestine conflict will increase or decrease the risk of a conflict erupting across the Taiwan Straits? 

Yeo: What has happened in Palestine has taken the international limelight away from Ukraine to the Middle East. This is to Ukraine's disadvantage, because Ukraine cannot sustain this war by itself. It needs Western help.

Both the Ukraine war and the problem of Palestine have taken away attention from the Taiwan Straits, because every leader has limited resources and only so much nervous energy.

It is difficult enough to devote time and energy to two crisis areas. The fact that US-China relations have taken a slight turn for the better will help reduce tension across the Taiwan Straits.


GT: What do you think other countries can do to ease the tensions between China and US? 

Yeo: Europe can play a very important role. If China behaves excessively, Europe should lean a little to the US. This will then restrain China. In the same way, if the US behaves in an unreasonable way, Europe should be a little away from the US and thus restrain its actions. Europe can play a critical balancing role to maintain peace and stability in the world. 

ASEAN refuses to take sides when our own interests are not directly affected, because we see no benefits in taking sides. ASEAN wants to remain neutral and friendly to all powers, not only to China and the US, but also to India, Europe, Japan and others. If any major power tries to bully ASEAN, we will shift in other directions. This will stop the bullying. This has always been ASEAN's strategy, which is to be dynamically balanced among the big powers and to be useful to all of them. 

So Wang Daohan, (then head of the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits), and Koo Chen-fu (then chairman of the Taiwan-based Straits Exchange Foundation) met for the first time in Singapore. The talk between President Xi and former Taiwan island leader Ma Ying-jeou was also held in Singapore. A few years ago, then US President Donald Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore and after that in Hanoi.

Many countries meet regularly at the ASEAN regional forum. Everybody sits around the ASEAN table. ASEAN is friendly to everybody, and everybody feels comfortable and welcomed in ASEAN. That was why the G20 summit in Bali last year was so successful.


GT: Will Singapore play a more active role as mediator? 

Yeo: Singapore's role is very consistent. We are a peacemaker, we are never a troublemaker. We want the major powers to talk, to compromise, because this will conduce peace and is in our own interest. We derive no benefits from big power conflicts. 

In fact, we feel extremely uncomfortable if our friends are quarreling with one another. We encourage them to be courteous and reasonable when they visit us in ASEAN. 

GT: At present, China is also facing challenges like economic growth slowdown. What's your view on China's domestic political economic circumstances? 

Yeo: I don't think China's current economic slowdown is very serious. The country is still adjusting to the end of COVID. The government has decided that the way in which the real estate sector was over invested was not healthy. Too many people were buying houses and apartments as a one-way bet to make money. That resulted in excessive deployment of economic resources to real estate. By stopping it, the government has to be mindful of the systemic effects, because real estate is on every company's balance sheet. 

China also has an unemployment problem, but China has a lot of policy, flexibility. China did not have to print money during COVID. In fact, much of the money printed by other countries was collected by China. Financially, the Chinese government is in a strong position. In contrast to other major economies, interest rates in China are still trending down, which means that the government has a lot of fiscal room to address the economic downturn. I am therefore cautiously optimistic about the Chinese economy. That is good for the entire world.