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美國向製造業投入巨資，但麵臨熟悉的威脅：中國
By Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley
俄亥俄州佩裏斯堡的一家太陽能電池板工廠。拜登政府的一些官員擔心，中國進口產品的湧入可能威脅美國工廠的生存。
拜登政府已開始向美國工廠和基礎設施投入逾2萬億美元的巨資，旨在加強美國工業和應對氣候變化。
但該努力正麵臨一個熟悉的威脅：來自中國的低價產品激增。這引起了拜登總統及其助手的注意，他們正在考慮采取新的保護主義措施，以確保美國工業能夠與北京競爭。
就在美國工廠加大電動車、半導體和太陽能電池板的生產之時，中國的同類產品正大量湧入市場，價格往往比美國競爭對手低得多。歐洲市場也受到了類似衝擊。
美國企業高管和官員認為，中國的行為違反了全球貿易規則。這些擔憂引發歐美發出新的呼籲，要求對中國進口產品征收更高的關稅，這可能導致中國與西方之間本已緊張的經濟關係進一步惡化。
類似的中國進口激增曾導致奧巴馬政府在2008年金融危機後扶植國內太陽能製造業的努力遭到削弱，一些美國初創企業被迫倒閉。奧巴馬政府對中國生產的太陽能設備加征關稅作為報複，在世界貿易組織引發了一場爭端。
拜登政府的一些官員擔心，在政府投入巨資助力國內製造業發展之際，中國製造可能再次威脅到美國工廠的生存。據知情人士透露，作為對前總統特朗普四年前對中國加征關稅政策的審查，拜登政府官員似乎有可能提高對中國的新能源車和其他戰略物資的關稅。這項審查自拜登上任以來就一直在進行，可能會在未來幾個月內有最終結果。
國會也在呼籲推出更多保護措施。在1月5日致拜登政府的信函中，一個眾議院委員會的兩黨議員就中國向美國傾銷半導體的情況表達了關切。議員們詢問政府是否可以製定新的“零件”關稅，也就是要對製成品內部采用的進口芯片征稅。
此前，該委員會成員曾在11月的一封信函中建議拜登政府考慮就中國新能源車補貼發起新的貿易調查，可能導致對這類汽車征收額外關稅。
根據《紐約時報》獲得的一封日期為1月4日的信函，美國貿易代表戴琪向議員們表示，她對中國在電動車行業的做法也感到擔憂。戴琪向該委員會表示，拜登政府需要“與美國企業和工會合作，確定並部署更多應對措施，以幫助克服中國在該領域以國家為主導的產業扶植”。
過去五年來，美國一直對價值數千億美元的中國產品征收關稅，認為此舉可以抵消北京在美國銷售廉價產品對美國製造商造成的打擊。拜登曾試圖憑借大量補貼來為美國企業提供更多幫助，以此促進美國的太陽能電池板、新能源車，以及半導體等清潔能源技術製造業的發展。
但中國的產業政策性支出仍遠超美國。麵對經濟放緩和房地產泡沫逐漸破裂的困局，中國政府近來已進一步加大力度推動出口增長，並支持製造部門的生產。
華盛頓智庫戰略與國際問題研究中心中國商務和經濟項目高級研究員麥怡瑞(Ilaria Mazzocco)表示，北京尤其重視對新能源車和半導體等具有戰略意義的高科技產品的投入。
“世界上的其他國家也都想發展這些產業，”她說。
中國成功的部分原因在於其更大的市場為中國企業提供了打磨產品的規模和機會，同時中國還擁有龐大的工程師人才隊伍。例如，中國去年銷售了約670萬輛純電動汽車，而美國的銷量在120萬輛左右。
中國政府稱其奉行公平競爭，並將美國的貿易措施描述為保護主義。
南京港。麵對經濟放緩，中國政府最近加大了促進出口和支持製造業的力度。
但亞洲協會政策研究所副所長、前貿易談判代表溫迪·卡特勒表示，中國的清潔能源和半導體產業得到了大量政府援助，包括稅收抵免、獲得更便宜的能源和資金注入。
“這樣的例子不勝枚舉，”她說。“隨著中國企業利用這類係統，它隻會導致產能過剩。”
代表美國太陽能製造商的美國太陽能製造商聯盟的執行董事邁克爾·卡爾說，在美國，當太陽能電池板供過於求時，工廠就會讓生產線停工、裁員，並試圖將產能恢複到正常水平。
“中國不是這樣的，”他說。“他們隻是建造、建造、再建造。”
能源研究公司伍德·麥肯茲的分析師稱，中國去年在太陽能行業投資了1300多億美元，並準備在今年投產足夠的晶圓、電池和電池板，以滿足到2032年的全球年度需求。
上月底，兩家美國公司對拜登政府暫停對進口太陽能電池板征收關稅提出了法律挑戰。
中國在半導體領域的巨額投資，包括為支持該行業新設的3000億元基金，也令投資美國新芯片工廠的公司感到擔憂。
中國在全球芯片生產中所占份額很小，到2022年僅占7%左右。但專家表示，中國在半導體行業的支出超過了美國和歐洲的總和，可能在未來十年成為世界上最大的芯片生產國。
研究公司TechInsights副主管丹·哈奇森表示，令人擔憂的是，中國將在半導體領域采取其在航運、太陽能電池或鋼鐵領域所采取的做法——積累過剩產能，然後將外國競爭對手趕出該行業。
“這是一種合理的擔憂，因為西方公司的弱點在於它們必須盈利，”他說。
對那些受到不公平補貼，或以低於製造成本的價格在美國市場銷售的中國出口產品，美國可以征收關稅，它也確實這麽做了。本月，它對中國鋼鐵征收了超過120%的關稅。
但是，即使中國商品被美國封鎖，它們也可以流入其他國家。這會將全球價格推低至美國公司認為無法與之競爭的水平，並將美國公司擠出國外市場，削弱了它們的收入和競爭力。
一些人說，美國應該接受廉價的中國製造太陽能電池板和傳統芯片，而不是征收關稅，這會增加美國消費者和使用進口原料的工廠的成本。
自由主義智庫凱托學會的貿易專家斯科特·林西科姆表示，美國試圖在支出上超過中國，這在經濟上沒有意義，尤其是在與軍事無關的商品方麵。
“正確的對策是我們自己也來補貼嗎，還是說用經濟學上更明智的方式，‘外國政府要瘋狂補貼我們的消費，讓他們補貼去好了，我們才不在乎’？”林西科姆說。
蘇州的一條太陽能電池板生產線上，工人正在進行質檢。
但是，鑒於兩國關係日益緊張，以及中國實施某些出口禁令，華盛頓大多數官員現在認為，中國在關鍵市場的主導地位是一個重大風險。中國生產了世界上80%左右的太陽能電池板，近60%的電動車和80%以上的電動車電池。
根據電動車市場研究公司鄧恩洞察的數據，中國電動車的平均價格約為2.8萬美元，而美國電動車的平均價格約為4.75萬美元。去年第四季度，中國汽車製造商比亞迪的電動車交付量首次超過了特斯拉。
中國電動車在歐洲的受歡迎程度激增，促使歐盟開始對中國的不當補貼展開調查。到目前為止，中國的電動車尚未在美國站穩腳跟，因為美國對這些進口產品征收高額關稅。
作為拜登於2022年簽署的氣候法的一部分，主要在美國而不是中國采購和組裝的電動車的買家也將獲得豐厚的稅收抵免。不過，一些官員擔心，中國汽車總體上比美國汽車便宜得多，消費者無論如何都會選擇購買。
Flush With Investment, New U.S. Factories Face a Familiar Challenge
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/business/economy/china-electric-cars-chips-solar.html
Worries are growing in Washington that a flood of Chinese products could put new American investments in clean energy and high-tech factories at risk.
A solar panel factory in Perrysburg, Ohio. Some Biden administration officials are concerned that a flood of Chinese imports could threaten the survival of U.S. factories.Credit...Daniel Lozada for The New York Times
Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley are economics reporters in Washington who are closely tracking the impact of Biden’s industrial policies.
But the effort is facing a familiar threat: a surge of low-priced products from China. That is drawing the attention of President Biden and his aides, who are considering new protectionist measures to make sure American industry can compete against Beijing.
As U.S. factories spin up to produce electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar panels, China is flooding the market with similar goods, often at significantly lower prices than American competitors. A similar influx is also hitting the European market.
American executives and officials argue that China’s actions violate global trade rules. The concerns are spurring new calls in America and Europe for higher tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially escalating what is already a contentious economic relationship between China and the West.
The Chinese imports mirror a surge that undercut the Obama administration’s efforts to seed domestic solar manufacturing after the 2008 financial crisis and drove some American start-ups out of business. The administration retaliated with tariffs on solar equipment from China, sparking a dispute at the World Trade Organization.
Some Biden officials are concerned that Chinese products could again threaten the survival of U.S. factories when the government is spending huge sums to jump-start domestic manufacturing. Administration officials appear likely to raise tariffs on electric vehicles and other strategic goods from China, as part of a review of the levies that former President Donald J. Trump imposed on China four years ago, according to people familiar with the matter. That review, which has been underway since Mr. Biden took office, could finally conclude in the next few months.
Congress is also agitating for more protections. In a Jan. 5 letter to the Biden administration, bipartisan members of a House committee expressed concerns about China flooding the United States with semiconductors. Lawmakers asked whether the government could establish a new “component” tariff that would tax a chip imported inside another finished product.
That followed a November letter in which members of the same committee advised the Biden administration to consider a new trade case over China’s electric vehicle subsidies, which could result in additional tariffs on cars.
Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, told the lawmakers that she shared concerns about China’s practices in the electric vehicle industry, according to a Jan. 4 letter that was shared with The New York Times. Ms. Tai told the committee that the administration needed “to work with U.S. companies and unions to identify and deploy additional responses to help overcome China’s state-directed industrial targeting in this sector.”
The United States has maintained tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese products over the past five years, viewing that as a way to offset Beijing’s ability to undercut American manufacturers by selling cheaper products in the United States. Mr. Biden has tried to further help American companies with billions in subsidies intended to boost U.S. manufacturing of clean energy technology like solar panels and electric vehicles along with semiconductors.
Yet Chinese industrial policy spending still far outstrips that of the United States. Facing an economic slowdown and a gradual bursting of the property bubble, the Chinese government has recently redoubled efforts to promote exports and support its factory sector.
Beijing is particularly focused on investment in high-tech products with strategic importance, like electric vehicles and semiconductors, said Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
“Those are also the kinds of industry the rest of the world wants as well,” she said.
Some of China’s success stems from its larger market — which gives Chinese firms the scale and opportunity to hone their products — along with its vast pool of talented engineers. China sold about 6.7 million all-electric vehicles last year, for example, compared with around 1.2 million units in the United States.
The Chinese government has said it competes fairly and described U.S. trade measures as protectionist.
The Port of Nanjing in China. Facing an economic slowdown, the Chinese government has recently doubled down on promoting exports and supporting its factory sector.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
But Wendy Cutler, the vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former trade negotiator, said China’s clean energy and semiconductor industries had received a lot of state assistance, in the form of tax credits, access to cheaper energy and equity infusions.
“The list goes on and on,” she said. “As Chinese companies avail themselves of these types of systems, it just leads to overcapacity.”
In the United States, when the supply of solar panels exceeds demand, factories idle their lines, lay off workers and try to bring capacity back into alignment, said Michael Carr, the executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition, which represents U.S.-based solar manufacturers.
“That’s not the way it works in China,” he said. “They’ve just continued to build and build and build.”
China invested more than $130 billion in the solar sector last year, and is positioned to bring enough wafer, cell and panel capacity online this year to meet annual global demand through 2032, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm.
Late last month, two U.S. firms mounted a legal challenge to a temporary moratorium that the Biden administration had placed on tariffs on imported solar panels.
China’s hefty investments in semiconductors, including a new $40 billion fund to support the industry, are also worrying companies investing in new U.S. chip facilities.
China accounts for a small share of global chip production — only about 7 percent in 2022. But experts say that the country is spending more on its semiconductor industry than the United States and Europe combined, and that it could become the world’s largest maker of chips in the next decade.
Dan Hutcheson, the vice chair of research firm TechInsights, said the fear was that China would do for semiconductors what it did for shipping, solar cells or steel — build up excess capacity and then drive foreign competitors out of business.
“It’s a legitimate fear, because the weakness of Western companies is they have to be profitable,” he said.
The United States can — and does — impose tariffs on Chinese exports that are unfairly subsidized or sold in the American market for less than it cost to make them. This month, it slapped tariffs of more than 120 percent on Chinese steel.
But even when Chinese goods are blocked from the United States, they can flow into other countries. That pushes prices down globally to levels with which U.S. firms say they cannot compete, and crowds American firms out of foreign markets, cutting into their revenue and competitiveness.
Some say the United States should simply embrace cheap Chinese-made solar panels and legacy chips, instead of imposing tariffs that raise costs for American consumers and factories that use imported inputs.
Scott Lincicome, a trade expert at the libertarian Cato Institute, said it did not make economic sense for the United States to try to outspend China, especially for goods that are not military-related.
“Is the proper response we do our own subsidies? Or is it to be a better economist and say, ‘Actually, we’ll let foreign governments subsidize our consumption like crazy, we don’t really care’?” Mr. Lincicome said
But most officials in Washington now see China’s dominance of key markets as a significant risk, given growing tensions between the countries and China’s imposition of certain export bans. China produces around 80 percent of the world’s solar panels, nearly 60 percent of electric vehicles and more than 80 percent of electric vehicle batteries.
The average price for an electric vehicle in China is around $28,000, compared with about $47,500 in the United States, according to Dunne Insights, an electric vehicle market research firm. In the fourth quarter last year, the Chinese automaker BYD delivered more electric vehicles than Tesla for the first time.
Chinese electric vehicles have surged in popularity in Europe, prompting the European Union to begin an investigation into illegal subsidies. So far, Chinese electric vehicles have yet to gain a foothold in the United States, which imposes hefty tariffs on those imports.
As part of the climate law that Mr. Biden signed in 2022, buyers of electric vehicles that are primarily sourced and assembled in the United States, rather than China, will also receive lucrative tax credits. Still, some officials worry that Chinese vehicles are in general so much cheaper than American alternatives that consumers could choose to buy them anyway.
Keith Bradsher contributed reporting from Shanghai.
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade. More about Ana Swanson
Jim Tankersley writes about economic policy at the White House and how it affects the country and the world. He has covered the topic for more than a dozen years in Washington, with a focus on the middle class. More about Jim Tankersley
