73 萬億美元從嬰兒潮一代傳到千禧一代

億萬富翁雷·達裏奧 (Ray Dalio) 表示，73 萬億美元的巨大財富轉移不僅是從嬰兒潮一代到千禧一代，也是從政府到你我

作者：BYPAIGE HAGY
https://fortune.com/2023/08/04/billionaire-ray-dalio-great-wealth-transfer-boomers-millennials-economy/

雷·達裏奧（Ray Dalio），全球最大對衝基金橋水基金創始人。
EOIN NOONAN——網絡峰會（來自 GETTY IMAGES）
代際財富轉移即將到來，而且是我們所見過的規模最大的一次。 不僅如此，對衝基金億萬富翁雷·達利奧(Ray Dalio)還指出了為什麽這對美國家庭來說是個好消息，對聯邦政府來說是個壞消息，而且這可能與上周的曆史性降級有關。

據估計，年邁的嬰兒潮一代將向他們的繼承人（其中許多是千禧一代）傳承 73 萬億美元。 布裏奇沃特聯合公司創始人達利奧周三在 LinkedIn 上發布了一份冗長的時事通訊，他表示，如此巨大的財富在一定程度上是政府自行設計財富轉移的結果。

達裏奧認為，過去幾年，政府一直在將財富從公共部門（以中央政府和央行的形式）和政府債券持有人轉移到私營部門（以家庭和企業的形式）。 達利奧寫道：“由於政府采取了這種協調一致的行動，家庭部門的資產負債表和損益表狀況良好，而政府的狀況卻很糟糕。”

這種轉移發生在2020年和2021年的“自由貨幣”時代，當時利率接近於零，美聯儲使用了一種稱為量化寬鬆的策略來試圖刺激消費者支出。 這是一個昂貴的策略。

周二，惠譽將美國主權信用評級從滿分 AAA 下調至下一級別 AA+，震驚市場，理由是政府不斷增加的債務和預期未來幾年的財政惡化是降級的原因。 惠譽是三大信用評級公司中第二家取消最高評級的公司，另外還有標準普爾。

盡管達利奧沒有直接提及信用評級行動，但他的語氣類似。 “更簡單地說，中央政府承擔了更多的債務（因此資產負債表惡化），央行印製了更多的錢（導致通貨膨脹上升）並購買了大量債務，以便將錢送到人們手中。 因此，私營部門目前的財務狀況相對良好，”達利奧在他的時事通訊中寫道。

最大的財富轉移
嬰兒潮一代出生於 1946 年至 1964 年期間，正值二戰結束後出生率激增。 現在，最年輕的嬰兒潮一代已六十出頭，最年長的已接近八十歲。 他們的財富來自 20 世紀 80 年代初以來金融和房地產市場的增長，當時他們在二三十歲時購買了第一套住房並進行了第一次重大投資。

根據聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行的經濟數據庫，自 1983 年以來，美國房屋的平均價格上漲了近 500%。 股票市場也出現了巨大的增長。 據《紐約時報》報道，自 1983 年初以來，標準普爾 500 指數已上漲超過 2,800%，與此同時指數基金成為美國中產階級的熱門投資。

隨著這一代人開始死去，估計財富轉移總額接近 85 萬億美元——超過了過去的任何財富轉移。 嬰兒潮一代的千禧一代兒童將受益最多——預計到 2045 年將有 73 萬億美元的傳承——另外 12 萬億美元將捐贈給慈善機構。

相比之下，最偉大的一代，即出生於 1900 年至 1925 年並參加過第二次世界大戰的人，向嬰兒潮一代的孩子留下了 16 萬億美元。

盡管達利奧在他的 LinkedIn 時事通訊中沒有特別提到嬰兒潮一代，但他之前曾討論過他所說的“大擠壓”，這意味著最近寬鬆的財政政策的好處正在減弱。 當老年家庭離開勞動力市場並開始享受社會保障和醫療保險等退休福利時，他們將感受到最深刻的影響。 但至少從 2016 年起，達利奧多年來一直寫道，其中許多承諾無法兌現。

“退休人員希望他們無需工作即可獲得承諾的退休和醫療保健福利。 因此，所有這些人都期望在不生產任何東西的情況下獲得巨大的消費能力，”達利奧在 2016 年 10 月的美聯儲演講中說道。“與此同時，工人們期望獲得與實際生產同等價值的消費能力。 他們正在給予。 他們都無法滿足。”

換句話說，達利奧最近的時事通訊認為，政府越來越多地向自己施加巨大壓力。 政府到底能承擔多少？ 達利奧說，目前，它使經濟保持良好狀態，但他的文章和惠譽的降級提出了這樣的問題：這種情況能持續多久。

Billionaire Ray Dalio says the $73 trillion great wealth transfer isn’t just from boomers to millennials—it’s from the government to you and me

By BYPAIGE HAGY
https://fortune.com/2023/08/04/billionaire-ray-dalio-great-wealth-transfer-boomers-millennials-economy/

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.
EOIN NOONAN—WEB SUMMIT VIA GETTY IMAGES
The generational wealth transfer is upon us, and it’s the largest one we’ve ever seen. Not only that, but the hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has identified why it’s great news for American households and terrible news for the federal government, and it likely has something to do with last week’s historic downgrade.

An estimated $73 trillion will be passed down from aging boomers to their heirs, many of whom are millennials. Such great wealth is in part the result of the government engineering a wealth transfer of its own, according to Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio, who posted a lengthy LinkedIn newsletter on Wednesday.

Over the past few years, the government has been moving wealth from the public sector (in the form of the central government and central bank) and government bondholders to the private sector (in the form of households and businesses), Dalio argues. “As a result of this coordinated government maneuver, the household sector’s balance sheets and income statements are in good shape, while the government’s are in bad shape,” Dalio wrote.   

This transfer took place during the era of “free money” in 2020 and 2021 when interest rates were near zero and the Fed used a strategy called quantitative easing to try to boost consumer spending. This was an expensive strategy.

On Tuesday, Fitch shocked markets by downgrading the United States’ sovereign credit rating from a perfect score of AAA to the next rung, AA+, citing the government’s mounting debt and expected fiscal deterioration in the coming years as reasons for the downgrade. Fitch is the second of the three major credit-rating firms to remove their highest rating, along with S&P.

Although Dalio did not directly address the credit rating action, he sounded a similar tune. “Said more simply, central governments took on a lot more debt (so their balance sheets deteriorated), and central banks printed a lot more money (which caused inflation to rise) and bought a lot of the debt to get money into the hands of the private sector which, as a result, is now in relatively good shape financially,” Dalio wrote in his newsletter.

The greatest wealth transfer of all 
The baby boomer generation was born between 1946 and 1964 during the birth rate spike following the end of World War II. Now, the youngest boomers are in their early sixties and the oldest are nearing their eighties. Their wealth comes from growth in the financial and housing markets since the early 1980s, when they were in their twenties and thirties, buying their first homes and making their first significant investments. 

Since 1983, the average price of a U.S. house has risen nearly 500%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis’ economic database. The stock market has also seen tremendous growth. The S&P 500 index has risen over 2,800% since the beginning of 1983, concurrent to the time index funds became a popular investment for middle-class Americans, the New York Times reported. 

As this generation begins to die, the total estimated wealth transfer amounts to nearly $85 trillion—eclipsing any from the past. Boomers’ millennial children stand to gain the most—$73 trillion is projected to be passed down through 2045—and an additional $12 trillion will be donated to charities.

In comparison, the Greatest Generation, those born between 1900 and 1925 and who fought in World War II, handed down $16 trillion to their boomer children. 

Although Dalio did not mention boomers specifically in his LinkedIn newsletter, he has previously discussed what he calls “a big squeeze,” meaning the benefits of loose fiscal policies of late are diminishing. Older households will feel the effect most profoundly as they leave the workforce and begin cashing in on retirement benefits like Social Security and Medicare. But many of these promises can’t be kept, Dalio has written for years, since at least 2016.

“Retirees expect that they will get the retirement and health care benefits that they were promised without working. So all of these people expect to get a huge amount of spending power without producing anything,” Dalio said during a speech at the Fed in October 2016. “At the same time, workers expect to get spending power that is equal in value to what they are giving. They all can’t be satisfied.”

In other words, Dalio’s recent newsletter argues that the government is increasingly taking the big squeeze onto itself. Just how much can the government shoulder? For now, Dalio says, it’s kept the economy in good shape, but his writing and Fitch’s downgrade raise the question of just how long that can last.