風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
中國新的全球領導力
作者：傑弗裏·D·薩克斯 2014 年 11 月 29 日
問題文章
紐約—今年最大的經濟新聞幾乎是在不知不覺中傳來的：根據國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的記分員的說法，中國已經超過美國，成為世界上最大的經濟體。 而且，盡管中國的地緣政治地位及其經濟實力正在迅速上升，但由於其政治和經濟精英不受控製的貪婪以及中東自設的永久戰爭陷阱，美國繼續浪費其全球領導地位。
據國際貨幣基金組織預測，2014年中國GDP將達到17.6萬億美元，超過美國的17.4萬億美元。 當然，由於中國人口是其四倍多，其人均GDP為12,900美元，仍不到美國54,700美元的四分之一，這凸顯了美國的生活水平要高得多。
中國的崛起是重大的，但也意味著回歸。 畢竟，中國自2000多年前成為統一國家以來一直是世界上人口最多的國家，因此它也是世界上最大的經濟體也是有道理的。 事實上，有證據表明，直到 1889 年左右，中國（按購買力平價計算）比世界上任何其他經濟體都大，當時美國超過了它。 125年後的今天，隨著中國經濟數十年的快速發展，排名再次發生逆轉。
隨著經濟實力的增強，地緣政治影響力也隨之增強。 中國領導人在世界各地受到招待。 許多歐洲國家將中國視為實現更強勁國內增長的關鍵。 非洲領導人將中國視為他們國家不可或缺的新增長夥伴，特別是在基礎設施和商業發展方麵。
同樣，拉丁美洲的經濟戰略家和商界領袖現在對中國的期待至少與對美國的期待一樣多。 經過一段時間的高度緊張之後，中國和日本似乎正在采取措施改善關係。 就連俄羅斯最近也向中國“傾斜”，在包括能源和運輸在內的許多方麵建立了更牢固的聯係。
與二戰後的美國一樣，中國正在投入大量資金，與世界各國建立牢固的經濟和基礎設施聯係。 這將使其他國家能夠促進自身增長，同時鞏固中國的全球經濟和地緣政治領導地位。
中國的倡議數量驚人。 就在過去一年，中國啟動了四個重大項目，有望大大擴大其在全球貿易和金融中的作用。 中國與俄羅斯、巴西、印度和南非一起建立了新開發銀行，總部設在上海。 新的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行將設在北京，將幫助為整個地區的基礎設施項目（道路、電力和鐵路等）提供資金。 新絲綢之路陸路帶旨在通過擴大的鐵路、公路、電力、光纖和其他網絡，將中國與東亞、南亞、中亞和歐洲的經濟體連接起來。 新的21世紀海上絲綢之路旨在促進東亞和印度洋的海洋貿易。
總而言之，這些舉措可能會在未來十年帶動數千億美元的投資，加速對方國家的增長，同時加深其與中國的生產、貿易和金融聯係。
無法保證所有這一切都會成功或順利進行。 中國麵臨著巨大的內部挑戰，包括嚴重且不斷加劇的收入不平等、大規模的空氣和水汙染、轉向低碳經濟的需要，以及困擾美國和歐洲的金融市場不穩定風險。 如果中國對其鄰國變得過於咄咄逼人 — — 例如，要求獲得近海石油或爭議水域領土的權利 — — 將會引發嚴重的外交反彈。 任何人都不應該假設中國（或世界任何其他地區）在未來幾年一帆風順。
然而，令人震驚的是，就在中國經濟和地緣政治崛起之際，美國似乎正在千方百計地浪費自己的經濟、技術和地緣政治優勢。 美國的政治體係已被富有精英的貪婪所俘獲，他們的狹隘目標是降低企業和個人稅率，最大化其龐大的個人財富，並削弱美國在全球經濟發展中的建設性領導作用。 他們如此蔑視美國的對外援助，以至於為中國在發展融資領域新的全球領導地位敞開了大門。
更糟糕的是，在中國展示地緣政治力量的同時，美國係統性地奉行的唯一外交政策就是在中東不斷發動毫無結果的戰爭。 美國在敘利亞和伊拉克無休止地消耗其資源和能源，就像它曾經在越南所做的那樣。 與此同時，中國避免卷入海外軍事災難，而是強調雙贏的經濟舉措。
如果中國領導人強調對基礎設施、清潔能源、公共衛生和其他國際優先事項的投資，中國的經濟崛起可以為全球福祉做出貢獻。 盡管如此，如果美國也繼續與中國一起發揮建設性領導作用，世界將會變得更好。 巴拉克·奧巴馬總統和習近平最近宣布的有關氣候變化和清潔能源的雙邊協議顯示了可能實現的最好結果。 美國在中東的無休無止的戰爭表明了最糟糕的情況。
China's New Global Leadership
by Jeffrey D. Sachs Nov 29 2014
IN QUESTO ARTICOLO
NEW YORK – The biggest economic news of the year came almost without notice: China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy, according to the scorekeepers at the International Monetary Fund. And, while China's geopolitical status is rising rapidly, alongside its economic might, the US continues to squander its global leadership, owing to the unchecked greed of its political and economic elites and the self-made trap of perpetual war in the Middle East.
According to the IMF, China's GDP will be $17.6 trillion in 2014, outstripping US output of $17.4 trillion. Of course, because China's population is more than four times larger, its per capita GDP, at $12,900, is still less than a quarter of the $54,700 recorded in the US, which highlights America's much higher living standards.
China's rise is momentous, but it also signifies a return. After all, China has been the world's most populous country since it became a unified state more than 2,000 years ago, so it makes sense that it would also be the world's largest economy. And, indeed, the evidence suggests that China was larger (in terms of purchasing power parity) than any other economy in the world until around 1889, when the US eclipsed it. Now, 125 years later, the rankings have reversed again, following decades of rapid economic development in China.
With rising economic power has come growing geopolitical clout. Chinese leaders are feted around the world. Many European countries are looking to China as the key to stronger domestic growth. African leaders view China as their countries' new indispensable growth partner, particularly in infrastructure and business development.
Similarly, economic strategists and business leaders in Latin America now look to China at least as much as they look to the US. China and Japan seem to be taking steps toward better relations, after a period of high tensions. Even Russia has recently “tilted” toward China, establishing stronger connections on many fronts, including energy and transport.
Like the US after World War II, China is putting real money on the table – a lot of it – to build strong economic and infrastructure links with countries around the world. This will enable other countries to boost their own growth, while cementing China's global economic and geopolitical leadership.
The number of Chinese initiatives is staggering. In just the past year, China has launched four major projects that promise to give it a greatly expanded role in global trade and finance. China joined Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa in establishing the New Development Bank, to be based in Shanghai. A new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, to be based in Beijing, will help to fund infrastructure projects (roads, power, and rail, among others) throughout the region. The New Silk Road land belt seeks to connect China with the economies of East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and Europe through an expanded grid of rail, highways, power, fiber, and other networks. And the new 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is aimed at boosting ocean-based trade in East Asia and the Indian Ocean.
All told, these various initiatives are likely to leverage hundreds of billions of dollars in investment over the coming decade, speeding growth in the counterpart countries while deepening their production, trade, and financial linkages with China.
There is no guarantee that all of this will succeed or proceed smoothly. China faces huge internal challenges, including high and rising income inequality, massive air and water pollution, the need to move to a low-carbon economy, and the same risks of financial-market instabilities that bedevil the US and Europe. And if China becomes too aggressive toward its neighbors – for example, by demanding rights to offshore oil or territory in disputed waters – it will generate a serious diplomatic backlash. No one should assume smooth sailing for China (or for any other part of the world, for that matter) in the years ahead.
Still, it is striking that just as China is rising economically and geopolitically, the US seems to be doing everything possible to waste its own economic, technological, and geopolitical advantages. The US political system has been captured by the greed of its wealthy elites, whose narrow goals are to cut corporate and personal tax rates, maximize their vast personal fortunes, and curtail constructive US leadership in global economic development. They so scorn US foreign assistance that they have thrown open the doors to China's new global leadership in development financing.
Even worse, as China flexes its geopolitical muscles, the only foreign policy that the US systematically pursues is unceasing and fruitless war in the Middle East. The US endlessly drains its resources and energy in Syria and Iraq in the same way that it once did in Vietnam. China, meanwhile, has avoided becoming enmeshed in overseas military debacles, emphasizing win-win economic initiatives instead.
China's economic rise can contribute to global wellbeing if its leaders emphasize investment in infrastructure, clean energy, public health, and other international priorities. Still, the world would be better off if the US also continued to lead constructively, alongside China. The recent announcement by Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping of bilateral agreements on climate change and clean energy show the best of what's possible. America's perpetual war-making in the Middle East shows the worst.
