風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
格雷厄姆·艾莉森（Graham Allison）談到中國的全球力量如何導致超級大國衝突或其他方麵。
中國在經濟、技術和軍事實力方麵的顯著崛起正在一個不確定的時代從根本上重塑世界秩序，但未來會帶來冷戰式的競爭、合作，還是兩者兼而有之？
格雷厄姆·艾利森主演 2022 年 1 月 21 日
在地緣政治方麵，要給格雷厄姆·艾利森教授留下深刻印象需要付出很大的努力。 畢竟，他是冷戰者中的冷戰者——作為美國最有影響力的國防政策分析師和顧問之一，他因其在與俄羅斯核裁軍方麵的工作而兩次被授予國防部最高民事榮譽。 他是前助理國防部長、前外交關係委員會主任、三邊委員會創始成員，也是一位著名的政治學家，曾擔任肯尼迪學院院長和該校貝爾弗科學與國際中心主任 事務。 然而，就連艾利森也表示，他對中國這個世界上正在崛起的經濟、技術和軍事超級大國的快速轉型感到驚訝，他說，美國和世界其他國家早就該聽到一些有關中國實力和實力的殘酷事實了。 21世紀世界事務的潛在主導地位。
為了解釋中國如何不僅趕上了，而且在許多情況下超越了，美國、艾利森和一群同事正在撰寫一係列五篇研究論文，涉及經濟、技術進步、軍事實力、外交影響力等關鍵領域 和意識形態。 第三篇論文關於中國作為經濟超級大國的非凡崛起，其中指出，盡管有些人可能仍將中國視為發展中國家，但事實是，中國的 GDP 每四年就增加了相當於印度整個經濟的水平。 多年來，中國中產階級的人數（約 4 億）現在遠遠超過了美國的總人口。
與此同時，中國在人工智能、量子計算和綠色科技等21世紀基礎技術方麵要麽正在追趕，要麽處於領先地位，而最近的兵棋推演預測，中國現代化、擴張的軍隊可能會贏得對台灣的軍事衝突。 格雷厄姆·艾利森談到了中國的崛起以及下一個超級大國的競爭，同時也談到了超越冷戰思維的美中關係新範式的可能性。
劇集注釋：
格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison) 是哈佛大學道格拉斯·狄龍政府學教授，已在哈佛大學任教 50 年。 艾利森是一位領先的國家安全分析師，對核武器、俄羅斯、中國和決策特別感興趣。 艾利森是哈佛大學約翰·肯尼迪政府學院的“創始院長”，並擔任貝爾弗科學和國際事務中心主任直至 2017 年。 作為克林頓第一屆政府的助理國防部長，艾利森因“重塑與俄羅斯、烏克蘭、白俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的關係以削減前蘇聯核武庫”而獲得了國防部最高民事獎項——傑出公共服務國防獎章。 這導致12000多枚戰術核武器從前蘇聯加盟共和國安全歸還，並徹底消除了蘇聯解體時留在烏克蘭、哈薩克斯坦和白俄羅斯的4000多枚先前針對美國的戰略核彈頭。
他是多部著作的作者，其中包括：《戰爭注定：美國和中國能否逃脫修昔底德陷阱？》 （2017）、《李光耀：大師對中國、美國和世界的見解》（2013）、《核恐怖主義：最終可預防的災難》（2004）和《決策的本質：解釋古巴導彈危機》 （1971）。
作為現代肯尼迪學院的“創始院長”，在他的領導下，從 1977 年到 1989 年，一個小型的、未定義的項目發展了 20 倍，成為一所主要的公共政策和政府專業學院。 艾利森是三邊委員會的創始成員、外交關係委員會主任。 他在北卡羅來納州夏洛特出生和長大，並在戴維森學院接受教育。 哈佛大學（曆史學學士學位，優等生）； 牛津大學（學士和碩士學位，哲學、政治學和經濟學一等榮譽）； 和哈佛大學（政治學博士）。
China's remarkable rise in economic, technological, and military prowess is radically reshaping the world order during an uncertain age, but will the future bring Cold War-style rivalry, collaboration, or both?
FEATURING GRAHAM ALLISON
JANUARY 21, 2022
It takes a lot to impress Professor Graham Allison when it comes to geopolitics. He is, after all, the Cold Warrior’s Cold Warrior—as one of America’s most influential defense policy analysts and advisors, he was twice awarded the Defense Department’s highest civilian honor for his work on nuclear disarmament with Russia. He’s a former assistant secretary of defense, former director of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, and a renowned political scientist who has served as dean of the Kennedy School and head of the school’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Yet even Allison says he marvels at the rapid transformation of China, the world's rising economic, technological, and military superpower, and he says it’s well past time for the United States and the rest of the world to hear some hard truths about China’s power and potential dominance of world affairs during the 21st century.
To explain how China has not only caught up with, but in numerous cases surpassed, the United States, Allison and a group of colleagues are writing a series of five research papers on the key areas of economics, technological advancement, military power, diplomatic influence, and ideology. The third paper, on China’s extraordinary rise as an economic superpower, states that while some may be tempted to still see China as a developing country, the truth is that it has been adding the equivalent of the entire economy of India to its GDP every four years and that the number of people in the Chinese middle class—some 400 million—now far outnumber the entire population of the United States.
Meanwhile, China is either catching up or leading in foundational technologies of the 21st century like AI, quantum computing, and green tech, while recent war games predict that China’s modernized, expanded military would likely win a military conflict over Taiwan. Graham Allison talks about China’s rise and what could be the next great superpower rivalry—but also about the possibilities for a new paradigm for the U.S.-China relationship that goes beyond Cold War thinking.
Episode Notes:
Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, where he has taught for five decades. Allison is a leading analyst of national security with special interests in nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and decision-making. Allison was the “founding dean” of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, and until 2017, served as director of its Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. As assistant secretary of defense in the first Clinton administration, Allison received the Defense Department's highest civilian award, the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, for "reshaping relations with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet nuclear arsenal." This resulted in the safe return of more than 12,000 tactical nuclear weapons from the former Soviet republics and the complete elimination of more than 4,000 strategic nuclear warheads previously targeted at the United States and left in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus when the Soviet Union disappeared.
He is the author of numerous books, including: “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” (2017), “Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States and the World” (2013), “Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe” (2004) and “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971).
As "founding dean" of the modern Kennedy School, under his leadership, from 1977 to 1989, a small, undefined program grew twenty-fold to become a major professional school of public policy and government. Allison was a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, a Director of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was born and raised in Charlotte, North Carolina and was educated at Davidson College; Harvard College (B.A., magna cum laude, in History); Oxford University (B.A. and M.A., First Class Honors in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics); and Harvard University (Ph.D. in Political Science).
Hosted and produced by
Ralph Ranalli
Co-produced by
Susan Hughes
For more information please visit our webpage or contact us at PolicyCast@hks.harvard.edu.
This episode is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.
