夥伴們 歡迎大家來參加由中金財富打造的中國武林中國行雲會客廳活動，我是主持人喬博 當下世界經濟正處於充滿不確定性的十字路口, 大家看到地區政治邊緣衝突加劇 金融市場充滿波動。
產業鏈結構正在麵臨重塑 我們看到過去很多大家熟悉的世界秩序和規則正在發生變化
麵對種種的不確定性 我們該如何應對
今天我們非常有幸邀請到橡樹資本聯席創始人及聯席董事長霍華德馬克思先生
睿遠基金管理有限公司創始人及投資經理陳光明先生來到現場深度對談
希望在充滿不確定性的當下 能給我們的投資者夥伴們有所啟發
霍華德馬克先生是橡樹資本聯席創始人及聯係董事長 他所執掌的像素資本以逆向價值與卓越的風險管理能力
是全球最知名的另類資產管理公司之一
他更是一位布道者 相信在座的很多的夥伴都看過他兩本著作
投資最重要的是和周期 這兩本著作也是巴菲特先生利劍的著作
更是以三次以無人知曉為題寫下了他對時代巨變的回應
他強調未來無法預測 但也正因為無人知曉
我們才更應該在不確定的市場中做出理性的決策的
陳光明先生 石睿遠基金創始人及投資經理 他深耕中國資本市場超過25年
可以說是價值投資理念在中國本土化的實踐者 他陳光明先生始終唱做時間的朋友
用理性與耐心詮釋投資的本質 他的思考不僅關乎資本市場的起伏
更包含對於經濟趨勢 企業價值乃至社會責任的深度理解
霍華德先生與陳光明先生 一位是西方價值投資的領軍者 一位是東方中國投資的實踐者
今天他們將突破地域與文化的邊界 展開投資領域的深度對話
為我們呈現一場橫跨東西的思想盛宴 下麵讓我們用熱烈的掌聲歡迎霍華德馬克思先生與陳光明先生
今天特別榮幸有這機會再跟霍華德先生請教學習這些
熱烈歡迎霍華德先生再次來到中國派 也祝賀像素資本成立30周年
我之前與霍華德先生有兩次對話 第一次是在19年
在中歐工商管理學院 當時正是霍華德先生寫的第二本著作
周期這本書的中文版的出版的時間
我們就周期這本書展開了一次關於周期的對話
第二次是去年的這個時間在上海交通大學我們也舉行了一次對話
今天很榮幸 這個時間也非常好 特朗普總統單選以來
這個世界不確定性是更加增加
在這個時候對於美國經濟的走向的討論是比去年多了很多
觀點也更加的分化 霍華德先生一直很關注周期
所以我的第一個問題是想請教霍華德先生
您認為目前美國經濟現在所處的位置和去年相比有什麽明顯的變化嗎
另外我們也看到美國股市的總市值占到全球總市值的50%
而美國的GDP隻占到全球的4分之1左右 從估值的視角寫的比較高
最近有一個流行的觀點是美國的例外論的終結
你怎麽看待目前美國股票市場資本市場的投資價值
第一個問題包含兩部分 謝謝
Thank you mr chen It's a great pleasure to be with you this morning
I am and to be with C IC Cand its very good clients from all over china
You asked many questions in that one question and i'll i'll do my best to answer
Of course a lot has changed since I spoke with you last year
noise And uh I think the U S Economy continues to perform quite well and the dynamism is quite strong
Uhhaving said that the uh election of Donald trump as president brought changes in policy uh and those have introduced volatility and uncertainty into the markets
Of course everybody knows that the biggest uncertainty surrounds trade policy and tariffs and Donald trump feels extremely strongly about a trade and tariffs it is one of the areas he has expressed beliefs for forty years basically he believes that the other countries have ah taken advantage of the U
S And imposed unfair practices and that we have to uh uh redress this and uh improve our baLance of trade through the use of tariffs
So he introduced tariffs he paused the tariffs he changed the tariffs
And the financial markets do not like uncertainty and they responded very strongly at the beginning of April
but now they have largely recovered The market appreciated the fact that president trump was responsive to it and uh when the market expressed displeasure over his extreme actions
he moderated his stance and that has uhthe people responded to that very favorably
I think we will have tariffs He is a strong believer in tariffs
There's no question in my mind that will have higher tariffs than in the past The goal should be tariffs noise that are a moderate
predictable and targeted And of course
these tariffs started off suddenly massively and as a surprise
unk and across the board rather than targeted I think they'll be narrowed over time
And of course I think the markets will adjust To the most important aspect of your question
mister chen was with regard to american exceptionalism
I believe that amErica has been pre eminent in the world for the last eighty to one hundred years eh economically the reasons include the dynamic nature of the U
S Economy and the the uh devotion to free markets the rule of law
the technological and managerial unk um uh innovation
uh strong natural resources deep capital markets
uh many things have contributed to the american position That's why uh our companies lead the world in market capitalization
Of course part of it is because more of our companies are public than in other places So it's not completely an indicator of the size of the economy or the corporate sector or there are questions now about U
S exceptionalism I believe the list of things that I mentioned has made the U S
The number one destination for capital in the world over the last century
I believe it still is I believe it's still a wonderful place to invest in and will remain
So the question is is it still as good as it always was
And uh you know so far the behavior of this administration introduces questions about the dependability of of the U
S Uh as a as a world actor and uh uh as I say
I believe that the list of things that I mentioned remains in force
Some of them are under some question today But if you look at them in total
I don't think there's AA Better place in the world for people to invest in large sums of money
The U S Has dominated international portfolios to date Some people may decide to have a little less in the united states going forward
But I don't think phrases like the end of american exceptionalism or the end of uh US
Over representation in portfolios I don't think those phrases are in order I think the US
uh will still be a very rewarding place uh to invest in the decades to come
第二個問題 就剛剛前麵已經提到的4月2號這個特朗普關於全球加征關稅的事情
像素是最擅長價值投資和逆向投資 在關稅水平多次變化
並且未來可能還會繼續變化 那麽作為美國的投資人
您怎麽看待這種政策變化的影響 會如何影響上述資本的投資
四月關稅政策宣布後 全球市場明顯回調 不僅是股票
甚至包括傳統的避險資產 如國債 甚至環境
環境當然是非常短暫啊 那麽一般我們會把這種劇烈下跌中的加餐乘坐接刀子
在今年4月市場這種波動幅度裏 像素資本有嚐試去接刀子嗎
可以分享大家這種情況下如何平衡收益和風險
謝謝 Thank you mr Jenny Um I think one of the important aspects of being a value investor
as both you and we are is that our attraction comes from the companies uh not from the uh overall macro
Oak tree is not what we call a top down investor First making judgments about the economy than about the market
Then we look for good companies companies that will grow companies to lend to that will repay us and that never changes
As I mentioned uhyou know wellsome aspects of the U S Position may be somewhat diminished
The U S Exceptionalism is not at an end and the dependability of our own
our economy and our companies is not at an end So we continue to believe that we can find companies that will grow and companies that will repay us
and we pursue them whenever we find them available at a at an attractive Price
Of course uhwhen the policies were announced in early April and the markets responded negatively
uhwe view that you know some people back away they say always the market is declining Uhthat's worrisome
No we treat that as a merchandise going on sale And when the department stores run sales
we buy more aggressively And so we definitely put money to work in the weak environment of April and of course
have benefited by the recovery We think it's very important to what also always step up in tougher times
Some people call it catching a falling knife We think that's our job But uh the key is to keep one's nerve when the events in the environment are unsettling
be strong and step up I wanted to take this opportunity to ask you about the chinese market and how a
uhvalue investor like you behaved in the environment we're talking about
對這個我非常認同 或這些人剛才講的 其實價格的波動有時候非常劇烈
我們更關注的是企業本身的內在價值
它其實並不隨著這個價格有那麽大的變化 他們還是最優秀的一些企業
他們還在創造著豐厚的自由現金流 這一點我非常的認可
我也稍微回複一下 四月份我們中國的資產??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????也出現了不確定的關稅政策下也出現了巨大的波動
我們是有明顯加餐動作 主要基於兩個方麵的原因
第一個就是經過1819年的貿易戰之後 中國出口美國市場的占比是明顯下降的
中國上市公司收入中涉及到美國出口的大隻有低個位數
大約3%左右 同時企業也做了更多的準備
比如說出口市場更加的分散
第二個我們我本人也相信 中美彼此之間不可能在貿易上完全快速的切斷
非理性的高關稅也是不可持續的 那在市場反應非常劇烈下跌的途中
當然這個是全球性的 包括美國市場剛剛花的先生也提到 出現了明顯的波動
我們認為更多的是短期風險偏好的變化 對於長期的基本麵的影響
並沒有向股市反映的那麽大 所以我們就明顯的加餐了
下麵我再請教霍爾德先生 很多人在提出對美債市場的擔憂
債務攀升 美債缺少買家 這裏我主要想講的是美國國債
並且主要是長端的美國國債 您是否認同這種說法 對於上述所熟悉的信用債會有怎樣的影響
去年以來有不少的國內投資人布局美元債的投資
您認為投資人應該如何看待匯率的波動
因為我們是外國投資人 可能還得考慮匯率的影響
謝謝 I wrote a memo in december of entitled sea change in which I discussed the fact that the U
S Went through a period of unusually low interest rates
the fed funds rate which is our base rate was uh from the beginning of o nine until the end of twenty twenty one
The fed funds rate was zero most of the time and averaged about a half a percent
That's very unusual Today's interest rates seem high compared to the rates in that period of
but they're actually quite Normal in the context of history
Ah now it is true that the interest rate on the ten year U S Treasury which is the benchmark security
went from roughly four percent before the tariff announcements to four and a half and it has essentially stayed there so that half a percent increase in interest rates was a reflection of some displeasure with regard to the behavior
a perceived increase in uncertainty And of course
uhthings have been stirred up by the trump announcements And I would say they are uncertain
Nobody knows what uh where they're going to come out six months or two years from now
Uhin fact uhas you know the title of my memo on tariffs Was nobody knows yet again issued on April the ninth
But I continued to believe that interest rates will be roughly stable in this vicinity uh
for a good period of time I don't think they're gonna go much higher
Of course there is some concern about the dependability of U
S Treasury instruments but I think not much We were reduced one notch uh by the rating agency um recently
Uh but II think that people have to understand what that downgrade means
It's almost theoretical but because I think it means the U S Probability of defaulting went from half a per cent to one per cent
Defaults are still not likely Our interest rate is still low in the absolute
and I don't think interest rates are going to go higher unless we have an unusual burst of inflation and the fed has to restrain it
and I don't see that happening So I think that investors can expect that interest rates will be roughly stable in this vicinity
uhfor a long time to come Now that is a change from the recent history when interest rates were either declining or extremely low
And in the period I see ahead interest rates will be stable not declining and not ultra low
But I think today's environment is rather Normal and i'm very comfortable here The good news is that even that rates are higher
credit instruments like oak tree deals with now offer substantial returns
whereas during the period of low rates they did not do so We are very happy with the interest rates on credit securities here
noise 好的 下麵這個問題是關於這個像素是優秀的困境債的投資人
困境債策略往往能在危機中找到較好的投資機會
例如現在的這個市場環境 您認為是困境在策略適合運作的環境嗎
Again the key element to think about is the change from the ultra low interest rate environment to a more Normal interest rate environment
and that change has taken place So I mentioned how low interest rates were from o nine through twenty one
And as a result of that many companies uh were bought often by private equity funds and bought with large amounts of borrowed capital when you can borrow a large amount of money at a extremely low interest rate
it makes more sense to use other people's money than your own Uh and and the private equity investors did so and private equity grew very rapidly
The problem is that those companies will some of them we'll have trouble supporting high interest rate payments in today's interest rate environment
And especially when those debts mature some companies will have trouble refinancing their debt
Uh given that uh inch credit is not as readily available today and is more expensive
some companies will need help That is to say some will default because they cannot refinance or some will need what we call a rescue loan
a privately arranged loan to help them through a difficult period of course And these are are the two activities that we engage in most often in our opportunistic debt finds
investing in distress companies or providing rescue finance So we do believe in the next couple of years
we will be seeing an expanded opportunity to uh and that's the reason why we raised AA large sum of money
and we've put a good bit of it to work already Uhwe think there will be very good opportunities to do that
下麵這個問題是關於中國市場
今年在deep sick問世之後 我們感覺到投資人對於中國市場的情緒變得更加樂觀了
曾經有說法就是deep sick影響了美國科技巨頭在AI產業現有的壟斷格局
從您的觀察 海外的投資人怎麽看待中國科技這一個現象變化
Wellmr Chen I think you know i'm not an expert in technology and oak tree
for the most part does not make high tech investments Nobody can be good at everything
We don't claim to be very good at that I think the most important thing for people to recognize a signified by deep seek is uh that uh the U
S At this point in time does not have a monopoly on technological progress
And other countries most notably china will have uh things to say for itself in that sector
And deep seek is an indicator of the ability to non U S Companies and especially chinese companies to compete in some of these attractive fields like AI
Our companies have always had competition Some of the biggest problems in the stock market arise when we have so called bubbles
And one of the characteristics of a bubble in my opinion is that people underestimate likelihood that a market leader will encounter competition
Deep seek is an example of that competition And investors have to keep in mind when a sector is a performing very strongly
when a company is one of the performing strongly as the leader of that sector that that position is always subject to competition
And they should not be complacent and they should not overvalue it I have been to believe
eveneven though i'm not an expert on subject an hour leading tech companies the so called magnificent seven
which lead the s and p five hundred index are wonderful companie??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????s with unusually high profitability
very strong modes very strong technological position very strong market share And
uhyou know they are subject to competition They always have been
I think people are not gonna forget about that but I think the deep seek was a reminder This is a great opportunity for me to ask you how you look on this development and how you factor it into uh to the things you do in your portfolios
Deep seek這個公司的創始人 我是認識的
還是熟悉的 那應該講他前麵幾年的這個投入
能有這麽大的產出是遠超我預期的 事實上從他身上的這個案例就可可以看出來
中國可能很多的企業他們所做的事情可能是被低估的
當然這個deep sick是讓我作為一個資深的投資人
是讓我最吃驚的 就是因為他確實沒有花特別多的投入
沒有買很多的卡 是吧 然後也確實沒有特別長的時間這麽快做到這個程度
一方麵是非常鼓舞人心 另外一方麵也確實是也引起我很深的思考
中國很多情況都在類似的發展 可能隻是程度的不同
在這個意義上來講 中國的投資人或者是中國的自己人 他有一些燈下黑的一種這種情況
所以整體來講 我對這個中國科技產業 當然也包括我這稍微延伸一下
就是對中國的科技產業 這是一個典型的案例
包括對未來的長期的這些各行各業的投資機會
我是整體保持比較樂觀的態度的 因為在前幾年這個熊市的時候流行的主題敘事都是日本話在那個時候看到的都是啊中國的存在的一些問題
比如說老齡化立場的問題
確實和日本有相似的地方 但實際上有更多的不同
首先其實關於房地產的泡沫也是遠比大年的日本要小很多的
其次就是剛剛提到的這個創新的問題 其實我們中國的創新始終站在世界的前沿
實際上是屬於最創新的地方之一
另外一個地方可能應該是在美國 這個是全球最創新的兩個地方
是這個和當年日本失去30年是有巨大區別的
從科技的行業的創新 從AI的突破 以及最近創新藥的整體爆發
都證明著中國在創新這個方向是有巨大的潛力的
同時中國還具備最完備的 最高效率的最低成本的產業鏈
並且還在持續快速的迭代和進化中
在熊市的尾端 這個估值給的很低 在那個時候我們的像素資本在很多海外投資人認為不可投資的情況下
下屬資本是看好的 而且是持續看好的 我23年還專門去美國去拜訪了像素資本
他們是這樣的一個態度 那個時候定價是太低了
這是一種錯誤 隻是看到了悲觀的一麵 沒有看到樂觀的一麵 而樂觀的這一麵現在正在慢慢的展現給全球的投資人
我們相信隨著時間的推移 可能會有越來越多的投資人會認可中國的發展的潛力
中國企業的優秀 中國人民的優秀 我們梁文芬同誌比我年紀小很多
是個80後 因為是我們這一行的 所以我有機會看到看到他的這個巨大的進步
基於對中國企業 企業家還有中國人民的信心
我們覺得中國長期的競爭力正確處於持續上升的周期中
我相信資本市場最終一定會反映中國長期上升的經濟實力
最終實現較好的股東回報 You have mentioned uh
some of the differences between china and and other countries And of course
you are known for your value investing
uhexpertise and have had spectacular results lately investing in value in china
Uh what can you tell us about the difference between value investing in china and perhaps the value investing in the unit US
Or value investing in emerging markets as opposed to develop markets
Uh i'm interested to hear uh your uh view on this
霍德先生的書
首先是第一本叫投資者最重要的事兒 我們是反複閱讀
非常感謝給我們帶來非常好的指引
價值投資的從基本的原理上來講
這個其實是全世界都是一樣的 這個也非常簡單易懂
把第一內在價格買入 實現投資回報 在這個意義上來講
原理上是沒有區別的 沒有國家之間的區別 隻要堅持市場經濟
堅持公司所有權歸屬股東現代的公司治理結構
但是價值投資作為一門實踐性的科學 它的難度主要在對內在價值的判斷上
在不同國家內在價值的評估實踐可能會有一些差異
比如說在中國內在價值的穩定性和持續性相對要偏弱一點
或者說變化會相對會更多一點 所以企業發展的周期性或者周期會相對更短一點
所以從這個意義上來講 難度會更加大 需要更加小心的去評估
然後根據新的信息和新的變化 及時去更新企業的內在價值評估的值
其次在中國作為新興市場 相對來講價格的波動會更大
所以說如果價值投資堅持的好
內在價值判斷的更加準確 理論上更大的波動是更容易實現更好的價值投資的收益
故意的反過來講 有更多的價值投資者的出現 也會減少市場的價格波動
當然正是因為中國市場是一個新興市場 有更大的波動
所以對人性的挑戰就會更大 他會對你克製自己情緒的能力要求更高
他需要更多的抵抗貪婪和恐懼
抵製誘惑和抵抗壓力的要求會更高 就是抵抗人性的要求更高
另外內在價值的不確定性也更大 這當然也是導致波動比較大的重要原因之一
他也更需要你提升能力去更準確更好的掌握對內在價值的評估和判斷
I think the the important thread that you and I agree on is that the uh the key is the ability to objectively assess what the real value is and then when the volatility uh causes the Price to depart from the value to take advantage of those swings rather than succumb to them
Uh and uh i'm very pleased that you have done that Uhas you know
a few years ago uhthe world investors pronounced china as uninvestigated
It was an example of an of an excessive volatile reaction and those of us like yourself and like oak tree who held or added to our positions in china
I think have been rewarded to date and will continue to be rewarded
Ah what we're looking for is occasions when psychological errors cause Price to understate value
And I think that became the case uhin china just as it was became the case in our market in the turmoil of April
And I think the value investor can take advantage of下麵我請教一下霍華德先生
下麵一個問題 過去幾年我們經常聽到的一個詞就是市場的不確定性增加
從2020年的疫情之後的加息的衝突
AI的發展 還有美國的關稅政策等等
您在行業內從業超過50年 您覺得過去五年是否是投資上特別困難的五年
怎樣麵對不確定性 您認為具備什麽樣特質的投資人能夠適應這樣的市場
Ohmr Chen that's a great question When we look back and we see what happened with clarity
when we look ahead the future is uncertain Uhthe future I think
always seems more uncertain then the past was because the past we know
the future we don't We have to always bear in mind that we don't know what the future holds
uncertainty over them what we call the macro The outlook for politics
geopoliticsworld affairs and world economics is always uncertainty and subject to surprise
This contributes to the excessive swings of psychology that I referred to and to the excessive swings of Price relative to value that we want to take advantage of
Now it happens that the last five and maybe we would say the last twenty years have been unusually susceptible to outside influences
noisethe global financial crisis the excessive levering up of the financial sector and then the demise of some financial sectors
And then uhcompanies was an example Of course the pandemic was the russian invasion of ukraine
uhall the belligerency in the middle east the ups and downs of inflation and interest rate
It just feels that there has been so much volatility in terms of the environment and and maybe it's true that it is more than ever
but I think that people lose crack of the fact that the future is always uncertain and they mustn't do that
Fear over uncertainty sometimes persuades people not to invest
Usually it does So when the uncertainty has rendered the market cheap
we don't want to be discouraged at that point in time We want to be strong and invest despite the fact that the future is always uncertain
uncertain in the long run The U S And chinese economies are engines of growth
In the long run they will make their companies more valuable And uh
it's a distraction to let the volatility of uh of the market
which is induced by the volatility of investor psychology
deter us from participating You know Warren buffett the greatest investor in history
is famous for having said don't bet against the united states and uh I would also say don't bet against china
Long term patient conscientious commitment to to investing is much more successful than trying to guess at the future and get in and get out
Vast majority of investors both amateur and professional don't have the ability to do that timing
The market is very difficult Uhuh time in the market is what produces wealth in the long run
And I what we tried to practice and what I applaud about your approach is awareness of value consistent approach when the upsurge of uncertainty causes Prices to collapse的being strong and owning more
not less I think we should continue to do that uhdespite the fact that from time to time
uncertainty appears greater Uh and in that context i'd like to ask you how you think about and how you have weathered the ups and downs of uh of attitudes towards the chinese market noise
對這個華德先生講的很經典 對於美國經濟也好
對於中國經濟也好 對於美國的資本市場還是中國的資本市場
這些優秀的公司持續的創造價值的時候 他們很多時候還是要以農民的這個心態
長期的耕種 而不是獵人的心態動不動去打個獵
打獵的水平要求挺高 難度非常大 所以我非常認同
過去五年 或者說過去的一個周期中國的資本市場的波動確實非常的大
到現在其實還沒有恢複 過去的這個周期當中
在牛市的時候 確實我本人還是保持了一定的警惕
這個也是在某種意義上來講 也得益於霍華德先??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????生的這個指導
當時霍爾德先生說過剛鹿晗的時候是美國漂亮50的這個高峰期
得出的結論就是買好的不如買的 好在20年我們中國市場有點類似
也有點類似漂亮50的這個情況 就是好的公司挺貴的
所以我也很警惕 那麽到了21年 也是牛市還在延續的過程中
風格也轉向了一些 行業趨勢非常好的 叫我們叫賽道投資
那些公司的競爭力其實是啊存疑的 隻是說行業趨勢也比較好
對於這一些我更加的謹慎 因為這個對內在價值的判斷不確定
所以在牛市的當中我是保持的警惕和謹慎
尤其還有對宏觀經濟的一個周期 華大學生寫的這個周期的理論來講
我們中國經濟的最主要的過去的驅動力 房地產周期已經麵臨著調整的這個壓力了
所以對於中國經濟的這個周期 我也宏觀經濟也是相對也比較謹慎
這當然從長期來講 我們也認為這個還是會持續的往上走
我們也應該看到更多好的那一方麵 但是在一個階段性的 它有一個經濟結構的調整
這個老的傳統經濟走到比較高的位置 他有下的壓力的時候
整體來講就是用比較通俗的話來講 就是牛市的時候要擔心一點
風險偏好降低一點 對吧 熊市來臨之後
大家都覺得不可投資的時候 我們是站在法
我們在那個時刻 我們買了很多中國的優秀企業
而且一直是持有 所以在通過這樣的一個價值投資的方式
我們基本上本人應該算是組合應該算是比較平穩和順利的度過了這麽一個周期
所以還是價值投資幫助了我第一the most important message that comes out of this discussion that I think you and I share
that I want to emphasize for the viewing audiences is that the benefits from investing come from the long term growth of the economy and the long term performance of our good companies
The newspapers and the T V stations if you pay too much attention
will give you the impression that the market determines your performance and the
and that the market is the source of your gains
uhand that you must attend to the fluctuations of the market and deal with them and maybe even get in or out in anticipation of them
And I think this is a mistake The market in the short term is subject to psychology
Its fluctuations overstate changes in the uh in the fitness of the companies and distract from the long term mission
The long term mission as I keep saying is to invest in our economies and to invest in companies that will grow and lend money to companies that will pay us back
And in the long term that's where our returns come from
not from something called the market but from the the quality companies that we invest in
恭喜 像素資本創辦30周年年取得了巨大的成就
您作為第一代創始人 可能也在考慮傳承的問題
關於公司的傳承有什麽碰到什麽挑戰 還有什麽樣的好的方法可以分享
能夠順利的傳承到第二代甚至第三代
因為我也知道這個投資管理公司對人的依賴非常的大
怎麽做好傳承是一個巨大的挑戰 您是行業的前輩 我們非常想聽聽您在這方麵有什麽思考
謝謝 Thank you mr chen Um I i'd like to say that I will lead oak tree forever
But chances are it's not true We have to ensure the succession of the management
the skills of the individual are extremely important and we have to identify successors who have the necessary skills to be successful investors
But I think the the glue the common thread that ensures the succession is the culture at oak tree
We have a very strong culture The people who founded oak tree thirty years ago worked together for the prior nine or ten years
So we have forty years together And in fact at the time of our founding
we already had extensive experience with each other and we knew what kind of culture we wanted to create
And our mission was clear from the beginning of oak tree So we wrote down and established our investment philosophy
which has six important points that have never changed and that applied to everything we do
risk control consistencymarkets that are not fully understood
understood where we can get an advantage specializing in a few things rather than trying to do everything
not basing our investments on macro decisions about economies and markets
not trying to time the markets and get in and get out This is our investment philosophy
I think it's been very effective forty years We've worked together already And so the key to a successful succession was to find people with the skills and intelligence and people who embodied that culture
which we have done So we last year we appointed to co CEOS and the chief Operating officer
The three of them average approximately twenty years working at oak tree already
and they're just embarking on these rolls They bring a complete adherence to the culture in addition to a high degree of intelligence
skill and integrity So i'm very confident arranging a succession of management that will permit oak tree to continue to perform in the same mode as it always has
Culture is what makes an organization more than just the sum of the people
對 最後一個問題的 另外還有一個就是另外一部分 就是在資產管理行業
價值投資的反人性的逆向操作
與客戶順人性的投資行為 這兩者之間如何實現更好的匹配
這是一個世界性的難題 你有什麽好的辦法和建議
就通俗的講就是客戶往往在市場熱的時候比較激動
在市場低迷的時候非常的沮喪 他很難做出價值投資
擬人性的法人性的逆向操作
您有什麽好的建議 謝謝 Noise
that's really the key question has interest and
You mentioned markets being hot and being cold And it is this movement of markets from hot to cold to hot to cold based on investor psychology
which goes from optimistic to pessimistic to optimistic to pessimism
This fluctuation what we call volatility is really excessive
And as I said earlier importantlyit is a distraction from the real mission
And I think that the professional is
and especially the value investor which both you and I are
keeps the eye on value avoids the distraction of caring about what mr
Market says is good or bad to day as compared to yesterday and perseveres through cold times
And we limit one's excitement in hot times and uh behaves uh as a mature professional throughout
That's the best way to participate in the long term games of economies and companies
And I think that this understanding is at the base of the successful investing and always will be
感謝兩位投資大師的精彩分享 相信剛才hold marx先生所分享的投資理念對大家有很深的啟發
對真正的投資收益並不是來自於市場 而是來自於高質量企業的內生價值的提升
在麵對當下眾多紛紜的市場的噪音 我相信也會給我們很多投資者帶來一些內心的從容和堅定
再一次讓我們掌聲感謝霍爾的marx先生和陳光明先生的精彩分享
謝謝
