風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
如果中美徹底脫鉤，中國能撐多久？
海外網友薩基姆的回答
The United States is clamoring to sever all relations with China, as if without the United States, China could do nothing. So ridiculous! These words sound more like the groans of a terminally ill person struggling, or the dreams of a drunken man.
美國叫囂要斷絕與中國的一切關係，好像沒有美國，中國什麽都做不了，這麽可笑!這些話聽起來更像是一個身患絕症的人掙紮的呻吟，或是一個醉漢的夢話。
Firstly, international relations are not a "small circle" issue among children. From a common sense perspective, the United States cannot completely sever its relationship with China. Even if the United States really intends to do so, to what extent can the two countries decouple? The relationship between Russia and the United States is so bad that they have not severed all ties. In contrast, China and the United States are much closer.
首先，國際關係不是兒童之間的“小圈子”遊戲。從常識上講，美國不可能完全斷絕與中國的關係。即使美國真的打算這樣做，兩國能在多大程度上脫鉤?俄羅斯和美國之間的關係如此糟糕，他們也沒有斷絕所有聯係。相比之下，中國和美國要親密得多。
From an economic perspective, the trade volume between China and the United States in 2022 was 759.427 billion US dollars, a record set during the ongoing trade war. Sino US trade saves an average of $850 per American household per year. In terms of personnel exchanges, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of personnel exchanges between China and the United States reached 5 million annually, with an average of 17000 people traveling between China and the United States every day. A flight takes off and lands every 17 minutes. Not to mention the large number of students and tourists traveling between China and the United States. Do you think all of this will disappear one day?
從經濟上看，2022年中美貿易額為7594.27億美元，這是在貿易戰持續進行的情況下創下的紀錄。中美貿易為每個美國家庭平均每年節省850美元。在人員往來方麵，疫情爆發前，每年中美之間的人員往來達到500萬人次，平均每天有1.7萬人往來於中美之間，每17分鍾就有一架航班起降。更不用說在中美之間往來的大量學生和遊客了。你覺得有一天這一切都會消失嗎?
From another perspective, I would like to know more about how long it can last if the United States severs all ties with China? Under the impact of the COVID-19, the highly globalized industrial chain appears fragile. As the most populous country in the world, China has an extremely large domestic market and a complete industrial chain. China was the only country to achieve economic growth during the pandemic, which fully reflects the resilience and resilience of the Chinese economy.
從另一個角度來看，我更想知道，如果美國切斷與中國的所有聯係，它能維持多久?在新冠肺炎疫情衝擊下，高度全球化的產業鏈顯得脆弱，而中國作為世界上人口最多的國家，擁有極其龐大的國內市場和完整的產業鏈。中國是疫情期間唯一實現經濟增長的國家，這充分體現了中國經濟的韌性和彈性。
For the United States, once it loses a major customer like China, it will be difficult to make up for it. For example, before the United States blacklisted Huawei China, Huawei placed nearly $12 billion in annual orders with American companies and is expected to purchase over $20 billion in goods from American companies by 2020, but all of this has been erased by restrictions imposed by the US government. Therefore, the US government's trade ban on Huawei has actually caused significant economic losses to American companies.
對美國來說，一旦失去像中國這樣的大客戶，將很難彌補。例如，在美國將中國華為列入黑名單之前，華為每年向美國公司下近120億美元的訂單，本來到2020年可以從美國公司購買超過200億美元的商品，但這一切都被美國政府的限製抹去了。因此，美國政府對華為的貿易禁令實際上給美國企業造成了巨大的經濟損失。
The current international trade system is no longer the pattern of the US Soviet Cold War, and it is unrealistic to deviate from the development of globalization. If the United States intends to completely sever its ties with China, it means it is gradually falling into a cocoon of ignorance. In short, decoupling from China is not the solution to the US dilemma. Cooperation between the two countries is the best path.
當前的國際貿易體製不再是美蘇冷戰時期的格局，要脫離全球化的發展是不現實的。如果美國打算徹底斷絕與中國的聯係，那就意味著它逐漸陷入了無知的繭中。簡而言之，與中國“脫鉤”並不是解決美國困境的辦法。兩國合作是最好的道路。
Perhaps this question should be said as follows: If China completely cuts off its ties with the United States, how long can Americans continue to do so?
也許，這個問題應該這樣說:如果中國完全切斷與美國的聯係，美國人還能維持多久?
Because, as analyzed by AXIOS, Trump's trade war with China is a failure in any aspect. A report from the Oxford Institute of Economics supports his analysis, with some excerpts as follows:
因為，正如AXIOS的分析所說，特朗普對中國的貿易戰在任何方麵都是失敗的。牛津經濟研究院的一份報告支持了他的分析，以下是部分節選:
The United States benefits from trade and investment flows with China. The combination of bilateral trade, investment, and supply chain integration supports economic growth, consumer choices, and job creation. In 2019, exports to China provided 1.2 million jobs to the United States, and as of 2019, Chinese multinational corporations directly employed 197000 people in the United States.
美國從與中國的貿易和投資流動中受益。雙邊貿易、投資和供應鏈一體化的結合支持了經濟增長、消費者選擇和就業創業。2019年，對華出口為美國提供了120萬個就業崗位，截至2019年，中國跨國公司在美國直接雇傭了19.7萬人。
In 2019, American companies invested $105 billion in China, and the profits generated from these investments and their contribution to the competitiveness of American companies supported the US economy through research and development, domestic investment, and dividend payments. It is expected that China will drive about one-third of global economic growth in the next decade, and maintaining access to the Chinese market is becoming increasingly important for American companies to succeed globally.
2019年，美國企業在華投資1050億美元，這些投資帶來的利潤及其對美國企業競爭力的貢獻，通過研發、國內投資和股息支付，為美國經濟提供了支撐。預計中國將在未來十年推動全球經濟增長的三分之一左右，保持進入中國的市場對美國企業在全球取得成功越來越重要。
The trade war with China has damaged the US economy and failed to achieve the main policy goals outlined by the Trump administration. Not only did it not bring benefits to the economy, but it also reduced economic growth and employment in the United States, resulting in an estimated maximum loss of 245000 jobs. Despite the first phase of the trade agreement reached between the two countries in early 2020, tariff rates remain at their highest levels in decades.
•與中國的貿易戰損害了美國經濟，未能實現美國政府概述的主要政策目標。它不僅沒有給經濟帶來好處，反而降低了美國的經濟增長和就業，導致估計最高損失24.5萬個工作崗位。盡管兩國在2020年初達成了第一階段貿易協定，但關稅稅率仍處於數十年來的高位。
Lowering tariffs may benefit the US economy and create job opportunities. Even a moderate reduction in tariffs may promote economic growth and stimulate employment growth. In our trade war downgrade scenario, the two governments are gradually reducing the average tariff rate to around 12% (currently around 19%), and the US economy will increase its real GDP by $160 billion over the next five years, adding 145000 jobs by 2025. Due to the increase in employment and income, as well as the decrease in prices, the income of each American household will increase by $460.
降低關稅可能有利於美國經濟並創造就業機會。即使是關稅的適度回落也可能促進經濟增長並刺激就業增長。在我們的貿易戰降級情景下，兩國政府逐漸將平均關稅稅率降至12%左右(目前約為19%)，美國經濟在未來5年實際GDP將增加1600億美元，到2025年將增加14.5萬就業崗位。由於就業和收入的增加以及價格的下降，每戶美國家庭的收入將增加460美元。
The escalating trade tensions and severe decoupling from China will further damage the US economy and reduce employment. According to our scenario of escalating and decoupling trade wars, the real GDP of the United States will decrease by $1.6 trillion over the next five years, with 732000 job losses in 2022 and 320000 job losses in 2025. In addition to significant short-term impacts on economic output, the long-term impact will permanently reduce GDP, reflecting a decline in economic productivity. By the end of 2025, American households will lose approximately $6400 in real income.
•不斷升級的貿易緊張局勢和與中國的嚴重脫鉤將進一步損害美國經濟，並減少就業。根據我們的貿易戰升級和脫鉤情景，未來5年美國實際GDP將減少1.6萬億美元，2022年就業崗位將減少73.2萬個，2025年就業崗位將減少32萬個。除了短期內對經濟產出的重大衝擊外，長期影響將永久性地降低GDP，反映出經濟生產率的下降。到2025年底，美國家庭實際收入將損失約6400美元。
Last November, China announced a record $75.43 billion trade surplus, driven by an unexpected 21.1% year-on-year surge in exports. The fastest growing is exports to the United States, which increased by 46.1% to $51.98 billion, also setting a record
去年11月，中國公布了創紀錄的754.3億美元的貿易順差，這是受出口同比意外飆升21.1%的推動。增長最快的是對美國的出口，增長了46.1%，達到519.8億美元，也創下了紀錄。”
The Port of Los Angeles is the largest container cargo handling yard in the United States and the gateway to many Chinese goods. Here, containers carrying Chinese imported goods are stacked together like six story Lego blocks. Truck drivers crowded the parking lot, waiting for a few hours to pick up the goods and then transport them to various parts of the European continent.
洛杉磯港是美國最大的集裝箱貨物處理場，也是許多中國商品的門戶。在這裏，裝載中國進口商品的集裝箱像六層高的樂高積木一樣堆疊在一起。卡車司機擠滿了停車場，等待幾個小時來取貨，然後將貨物運往歐洲大陸各地。
October was the busiest month in the port's 114 year history, and traffic remained high. Gene Seroka, the executive director of the port, said that on December 1st, dock workers were busy unloading 19 ships, while under normal circumstances, 10 to 12 ships were unloaded daily. He said that there are still 12 ships waiting at the port, and on average, these ships waited for about 48 hours after their scheduled arrival.
10月是該港口114年曆史上最繁忙的一個月，交通量仍然很高。該港口的執行董事Gene Seroka說，12月1日，碼頭工人忙著卸載19艘船，而正常情況下每天卸載10到12艘船。他說，還有12艘船在港口等待，這些船平均在預定到達後等待了大約48小時。
Seroka said that we are going through a truly unprecedented period. You want to stuff 10 pounds of potatoes into a 5-pound bag. This order and replenishment scale is the largest we have ever seen, and it happens to be a holiday
Seroka說，我們正在經曆一個真正前所未有的時期。“你想把10磅土豆塞進一個5磅重的袋子裏。這種訂貨和補充的規模是我們見過有史以來最大的，而且現在恰逢假期。”
In the first two months of this year, China US trade increased by 81.3% year-on-year, reaching 109.8 billion US dollars, which is the fastest growing among all regions, including the European Union and ASEAN. During this period, China's exports to the United States increased by 87.3%, second only to New Zealand, and New Zealand's imports from China increased by 89.2%.
今年前兩個月，中美貿易同比增長81.3%，達到1098億美元，是包括歐盟和東盟在內的所有地區中增長最快的。在此期間，中國對美國的出口增長了87.3%，僅次於新西蘭，新西蘭從中國的進口增長了89.2%。
Tian Yun, Vice President of the Beijing Economic Operations Association and former economist at the National Economic Planning Agency, stated that the high growth rate reflects the rapid growth in demand after the US economic recovery and stimulus policies.
北京經濟運行協會副會長、前國家經濟規劃機構經濟學家田雲表示，高增長率反映了美國經濟複蘇和刺激政策後需求的迅速增長。
海外網友布雷恩的回答
During the embargo period dominated by the United States, China has survived for more than 30 years. It has trade relations with only a few countries, and none of them is a Economic power. Today, China has political and economic connections with countries around the world. Some people estimate that China produces 40% of the total global consumption of goods. The latest final data on China's exports shows that exports to the United States only account for 19%. In addition, please remember that China also provides most of the components and raw materials to the countries that manufacture the final product.
在美國主導的禁運時期，中國存活了30多年，隻與少數幾個國家有貿易關係，而且沒有一個是經濟大國。今天的中國與全球各國都有政治和經濟聯係。一些人估計，中國生產的商品占全球消費總量的40%。中國出口的最新最終數據顯示，對美出口隻占19%。此外，請記住，中國還向製造最終產品的國家提供大部分零部件和原料。
More importantly, since most consumer goods come from China, and many of the components used for final product assembly also come from China, can the United States survive cutting off imports? Many economic sectors will collapse and need to be rebuilt from scratch. The main and most obvious will be wholesalers and retailers. Many well-known brands, such as Wal Mart and Target, as well as the whole wholesale and supply chain, will disappear or regenerate for those enterprises with sufficient financial resources.
更重要的是，由於大多數消費品來自中國，而且許多用於最終產品組裝的零部件也來自中國，美國能否在切斷進口後幸存下來?許多經濟部門將崩潰，需要從頭開始重建。主要的和最明顯的將是批發商和零售商。許多知名品牌，如沃爾瑪(Walmart)、塔吉特(Target)等，以及整個批發和供應鏈，對於那些財力足夠雄厚的企業來說，將會消失或重生。
American consumers will see political inflation leading to soaring prices. Many people will directly fall into poverty. After all, when the main supply of a consumer economy is cut off and there are often no alternative sources for a long period of time, this is the expected result. Some companies, such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Boeing, generate 30% or more of their revenue from China. Think about how they will weather such a crisis safely.
美國消費者將看到政治引發的通貨膨脹導致物價飛漲。許多人將直接陷入貧困。畢竟，當一個消費經濟體的主要供應被切斷，而且在很長一段時間內往往沒有替代來源時，這就是預期的結果。一些公司，如英特爾、高通和波音，從中國獲得了30%或更多的收入。想想看，他們將如何安然度過這樣一場危機。
So, for everyone's happiness, please let go of these childish ideas. We all benefit from cooperation rather than confrontation.
所以，為了大家的幸福，請放下這些幼稚的想法。我們都受益於合作而不是對抗。
理查德•查克的回答
In the past, 70% of goods in international trade were manufactured goods, and now 70% are semi-finished products. Many people believe that this makes China, which is dominated by the manufacturing industry, more susceptible to the impact of raw materials and market cuts. But the fact is exactly the opposite.
過去國際貿易中70%的貨物是製成品，現在70%是半成品。有很多人認為，這使得以製造業為主導的中國更容易受到原材料和市場削減的影響。可事實恰恰相反。
The first mistake was overestimating the reliability of the US dollar. People use dollars in the international market because they can purchase goods in dollars. If China, as an important participant in international trade, no longer uses the US dollar for settlement, then people will undoubtedly increase their demand for the euro and reduce their demand for the US dollar. The significant depreciation of the US dollar will ignite the debt problem of the US government and trigger a fiscal crisis. When everyone is rushing to sell dollar denominated assets, it will be the end of the US economy. The key to the problem lies in the US fiscal dependence on debt.
第一個錯誤是高估了美元的可靠性。人們在國際市場上使用美元，因為他們可以用美元購買商品。如果中國作為國際貿易的重要參與者，不再使用美元進行結算，那麽人們無疑會增加對歐元的需求，減少對美元的需求。美元大幅貶值將點燃美國政府的債務問題，引發財政危機。當所有人都爭相拋售美元計價資產時，這將是美國經濟的末日。問題的關鍵在於美國財政對債務的依賴。
The second mistake is overestimating the affordability of American citizens. Due to the loss of the US market, Chinese people will lose some of their jobs. However, most Chinese people can return to labor-intensive industries that are about to disappear, and household savings will ensure a short-term quality of life. For heavily indebted American families, this will be a disaster. In this epidemic, even though the government paid people's living bills, there was still a huge riot in the United States.
第二個錯誤是高估了美國公民的負擔能力。由於失去美國市場，中國人將失去一部分工作。然而，大多數中國人可以回歸那些即將消失的勞動密集型產業，家庭儲蓄將確保短時間內的生活質量。對於負債累累的美國家庭來說，這將是一場災難。在這場疫情中，即使政府支付了人們的生活賬單，美國仍然發生了巨大的騷亂。
The third mistake is underestimating China's potential. Comparing the economic growth rates of the two countries, it can be found that China still has a lot of room for growth, while the United States does not. The contribution rate of China's economic growth to world economic growth exceeds one-third, and may reach over half this year. As an investor, the Chinese market is far more attractive than the United States. Never test the loyalty of capital. The capital trapped in developed markets will lead to increasingly intensified conflicts between the United States and its allies.
第三個錯誤是低估了中國的潛力。對比兩國的經濟增長率可以發現，中國仍有很大的增長空間，而美國則沒有。中國經濟增長對世界經濟增長的貢獻率超過三分之一，今年可能達到一半以上。作為投資者，中國市場遠比美國更具吸引力。永遠不要試探資本的忠誠。而被困在發達市場的資本將導致美國與其盟友之間的衝突日益加劇。
The fourth mistake is underestimating the importance of China in the world economy. More semi-finished product trade will actually help China dominate the world economy. The key to the problem lies in scale. For upstream companies, China is the decisive buyer due to its market size. For downstream enterprises, China is also the decisive seller due to its production scale. That's why when China stopped its economic activities due to the epidemic, countries that were not affected by the epidemic also began to suspend work. Upstream enterprises shut down due to a lack of orders, while downstream enterprises shut down due to insufficient supply. The United States cannot bypass China to obtain enough goods.
第四個錯誤是低估了中國在世界經濟中的重要性。更多的半成品貿易實際上會幫助中國主導世界經濟。問題的關鍵在於規模。對於上遊公司來說，由於其市場規模，中國是決定性的買家。對於下遊企業來說，由於其生產規模，中國也是決定性的賣家。這就是為什麽當中國因疫情停止經濟活動時，未受疫情影響的國家也開始暫停工作。上遊企業因缺乏訂單而停產，下遊企業因供應不足而停產。美國無法繞過中國獲得足夠的商品。
Therefore, the biggest mistake is to believe that US capital will allow the US to decouple from China.
因此，最大的錯誤是相信美國資本將允許美國與中國脫鉤。
新加坡網友KokHin Thong的回答
This may harm the Chinese economy, but in the long run, the harm to the US economy will be multiple.
這可能會損害中國經濟，但從長遠來看，對美國經濟的損害將是多重的。
Firstly, China is the world's largest market. China is the world's largest consumer of entertainment, automobiles, electronics, appliances, services, food, energy, technology, infrastructure, finance, and more! Removing China from the US economy means that China will retaliate and drive American companies out of China. You see, the growth of GDP in the United States is largely due to the growth of the stock market. When a large portion of revenue from Forbes 100 companies disappears overnight, it will mean an immediate recession!
首先，中國是世界上最大的市場。中國是全世界最大的娛樂、汽車、電子、電器、服務、食品、能源、技術、基礎設施、金融等消費國!把中國從美國經濟中剔除意味著中國將進行報複，把美國公司趕出中國。你看，美國GDP的增長很大程度上是由於股市的增長，當美國福布斯100強公司的一大塊收入一夜之間消失時，這將意味著立即衰退!
Secondly, the United States will lose its international market share.
其次，美國將失去其國際市場份額。
The growth of American companies over the past 30 years is mainly attributed to the benefits brought by China's manufacturing industry. American companies have a huge business presence in China, while Chinese companies do not have the same footprint in the United States. They only produce products and then label them with American brands. This can represent a nearly 9-fold markup. Imagine if the United States withdrew from China and left their technology to the Chinese people. They can produce identical products. They can earn huge profits by establishing their own brand. They will surpass the United States internationally.
美國企業過去30年的增長，主要歸功於中國製造業帶來的好處。美國公司在中國有龐大的業務，而中國公司在美國沒有同樣的足跡。他們隻是生產產品，然後在產品上貼上美國品牌的標簽。這可代表近9倍的加價。想象一下，如果美國撤出中國，把他們的技術留給中國人。他們可以生產完全相同的產品。他們可以通過樹立自己的品牌獲得巨大的利潤。他們將在國際上超越美國。
Thirdly, China has already achieved victory in terms of market share in emerging economies.
第三，中國在新興經濟體的市場份額方麵已經取得了勝利。
If you have been to countries in Africa or Southeast Asia, you will find that Chinese brands dominate their consumer economy. American companies may have a much larger share in Wet market such as Europe and Japan. But this situation will not continue because once China has sufficient market share in these emerging markets, they will enter Europe and Japan. This has already happened in Latin America.
如果你去過非洲或東南亞國家，你就會發現中國品牌主導著他們的消費經濟。美國公司在歐洲和日本等傳統市場的份額可能會大得多。但這種情況不會持續下去，因為一旦中國在這些新興市場擁有足夠的市場份額，他們就會向歐洲和日本進軍。這已經在拉丁美洲發生了。
So, the only solution is: learn to cooperate with Chinese people and find your own niche! Obviously, no country can do everything well. For example, Luxembourg's dental equipment is world-renowned. If you want to maintain competitiveness, then specialize and do your best.
所以，唯一的解決辦法是:學會與中國人合作，找到自己的利基!顯然，任何國家都不可能事事都好。例如，盧森堡的牙科設備世界聞名。如果你想保持競爭力，那就專攻並做到最好。
