John Mearsheimer 21世紀的大國政治

21世紀的大國政治

2022 年 11 月 8 日在匈牙利布達佩斯錄製

從希臘和羅馬時代，到英國和法國，再到今天的美國，帝國的興衰有起有落。有些帝國持續了幾個世紀，有些帝國隻持續了幾十年。 總有新的勢力想要稱霸。 對許多人來說，軍事實力與經濟福祉密切相關。 但一旦收銀機開始清空，整體下滑也就不遠了。 顯然，21世紀的全球主導地位是美國和中國之間的較量。 俄羅斯雖然危險，但相對較弱，其在烏克蘭的無能就可見一斑。 國家情報委員會是美國頂級政府機構，負責發布預測全球趨勢的報告。 毫不奇怪，它將北京視為華盛頓的“潛在競爭對手”，“可能會擁有最大的經濟體，並在 2030 年之前幾年超過美國”。

錄製於國立公共服務大學。

Great Power Politics in the 21st Century

Program #MEAJ002. Recorded in Budapest, Hungary on November 8, 2022.

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Empires rise and fall from Greek and Roman times down to the British and the French to the present-day U.S. Some lasted for centuries others mere decades. There are always new powers that want to rule the roost. For many, military power is closely linked to economic well-being. But once the cash register starts emptying overall decline is not far behind. It’s clear that in the 21st-century global dominance is a contest between the U.S. and China. Russia is dangerous but is relatively weak, witness its ineptitude in Ukraine. The National Intelligence Council is a top-level U.S. government agency that produces reports projecting global trends. Not surprisingly, it identifies Beijing as a “potential rival” to Washington that “will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the U.S. a few years before 2030.”

Recorded at the National University of Public Service.