馬克龍說 我必須承認西方霸權即將結束

現在馬克龍說：“我必須承認西方霸權即將結束”

對於法國來說，美國是平等的之一

https://www.thecitizen.in/opinion/now-macron-says-i-must-admit-western-hegemony-is-coming-to-an-end-335394

作者：SAEED NAQVI|2022 年 8 月 27 日 12:38

既然法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍已經用如此多的言辭宣稱“西方霸權可能即將結束”，烏克蘭的衝突，即真正的戰鬥，可能會擴大到美國和俄羅斯代理人可以攻擊和攻擊的地區。 被攻擊。 如果衝突遵循這種模式，戰略家就必須弄清楚擁有更多軍事基地是優勢還是劣勢？

在美國的慫恿下，烏克蘭襲擊了俄羅斯聲稱擁有其領土的克裏米亞，人們對衝突可能蔓延的擔憂加劇。 俄羅斯外交部已明確表示：美國任何進一步鼓勵將戰爭擴大到克裏米亞的行為都將意味著美國成為衝突的一部分。

如果任何一方似乎失敗，莫斯科或華盛頓（烏克蘭隻是西方選擇的地盤）這兩個主要交戰方中的任何一方的衝突都將迫在眉睫。 烏克蘭戰爭雙方都無法承受失敗，因為失敗將意味著世界秩序發生不利的改變。

法國的聲明顯然會挫傷西方士氣，但這一聲明並未公開發表。 但它會造成更大的損害，因為這是法國總統在一次閉門內部會議上向法國高級外交官和特使發表的詳細、令人信服的演講。 這份題為“馬克龍調查西方主導地位的終結”的內部文件已被泄露。

馬克龍表示，法國、英國和美國使西方偉大了300年。 在他看來，三者的貢獻如下：“法國是文化，英國是工業，美國是戰爭”。 他是在嘲笑美國嗎？ ”

我們已經習慣了這種偉大，它使我們對全球經濟和政治擁有絕對的主導地位——但情況正在發生變化。”

他詳細闡述了特朗普早在特朗普之前就一係列美國總統做出的“錯誤選擇”，“克林頓的對華政策、布什的戰爭政策、奧巴馬的世界金融危機”。 在這篇令人震驚的西方大國訃告中，馬克龍接著談到“我們不僅在兩年前，而且早在十年或二十年前就低估了新興大國的崛起”。 他堅稱，“多年來，中國和俄羅斯在不同的領導風格下取得了巨大成功。” 在馬克龍的世界觀中，印度也赫然存在。 “中國、俄羅斯、印度這些國家與美國、法國和英國相比都很好。”

這些國家的政治想象力“遠遠強於今天的西方人”。 他本人也感到震驚：中國已經讓7億人擺脫了貧困……但在法國，“市場經濟正在以前所未有的速度加劇收入不平等”。

令人高興的是，托馬斯·皮凱蒂（Thomas Piketty）的《21世紀資本》出版近十年後，一位法國政治家注意到了這一點。 馬克龍坦率地分析了他自己的政黨在最近的國民議會選舉中慘敗的情況，盡管他沒有用這句話。

馬克龍目前受到由魅力超凡的讓-呂克·梅朗雄和極右翼馬琳·勒龐領導的左翼聯盟的圍困。 馬克龍沒有提到的是，當梅朗雄競選總理職位時，中間派和他一起幫助極右翼勒龐增加了席位。 這日益成為西方民主國家的一種模式：左翼闡明的人民要求威脅著中間派所立足的資本主義結構。

通過控製媒體等工具，他們通過提出身份問題來轉移不滿情緒，這是各地極右翼的主要內容。 這是法國和其他地方的馬克龍式中間派的危機。

這並不是法國例外論第一次刺破西方團結的表象。 我們不必深入曆史。 戴高樂的例外論曾一度促使他以法國商標“Vive la France”結束他在加拿大魁北克的演講。 丘吉爾和羅斯福發現他自負。 他確信他們密謀反對他。

法國外交部長休伯特·韋德裏納(Hubert Vedrine)在90年代末不厭其煩地將美國描述為“超級大國”，需要更強大的聯合國係統來遏製。 “美國的霸權延伸到經濟實力、貨幣、技術、軍事、生活方式、語言和大眾文化產品，這些產品淹沒了我們的生活，甚至美國的敵人也渴望這些。” 這是欽佩還是羨慕？

弗朗索瓦·密特朗總統最不願意加入瑪格麗特·撒切爾和老布什總統為沙漠風暴行動鼓吹的“自願聯盟”。 他知道這是一項讓英裔美國人保持冷戰後世界秩序主導地位的行動。 德國的統一是另一個令人擔憂的問題。 商業利益迫使他加入。

2003年，在美國入侵伊拉克前夕，當唯一的超級大國光芒四射時，法國例外論卻反對這一不幸事件。 法國外交部長多米尼克·德維爾潘的介入令人難以忘懷：他是在那次緊張的聯合國安理會會議上唯一反對強流的聲明。 後來，擔任總理的維爾潘更加直言不諱：法國知道美國人不希望通過檢查路線來確定大規模殺傷性武器的存在。 “他們想要入侵和占領。”

當美國衰落時，馬克龍已經卷起了袖子。 他留下了否認的餘地：畢竟，他隻與他的官員私下交談過。 他一定知道重磅炸彈會爆炸。 他為歐洲製定了一個新的安全架構，其中有俄羅斯的空間，歐洲軍隊，法國與美國的印太戰略。 法國將推動中國新絲綢之路與歐洲互聯互通戰略更好融合。

迅速變化的全球形勢使印度處於有利位置，為各方提供了新的戰略選擇。 同樣，烏克蘭事件後美國的衰落，鼓勵法國將自己視為西方強國，並有多種選擇。 在法國的框架內，美國隻是其中之一。

Now Macron Says, "I must Admit Western Hegemony Is Coming To An End"

For France US is one among equals

https://www.thecitizen.in/opinion/now-macron-says-i-must-admit-western-hegemony-is-coming-to-an-end-335394

By SAEED NAQVI|27 Aug 2022 12:38 AM

Now that French President Emmanuel Macron has, in so many words, declared that "western hegemony may be coming to an end", the conflict in Ukraine, the real fighting, may expand to theatres where US and Russian proxies may be available to attack and be attacked. If the conflict follows this pattern, strategists will have to sort out whether having more military bases is an advantage or a handicap?

The fear that the conflict could spread increased after Ukraine, prodded by the US, attacked Crimea which Russia claims as its territory. The Russian foreign office has made it clear: any further US encouragement to extend the war to Crimea will mean that the US is part of the conflict.

Escalation of the conflict by either of the two principal combatants, Moscow or Washington (Ukraine is only the West's chosen turf) would become imminent if any one side appears to be losing. Neither side can afford to lose the Ukraine war because defeat would imply an unfavourably altered world order.

The French statement which would obviously demoralize the West was not made in public. But it will do even more damage because it was a detailed, cogently argued presentation by the French President before an audience of senior French diplomats and envoys in a closed door, internal meeting. Titled, "Macron surveys the end of western dominance", this internal document has been leaked.

France, the UK and the USA have made the West great for 300 years Macron said. In his view, the three contributed in the following way: "France is culture, England is industry and America is war." Is he mocking at the US? "

We are used to this greatness which gives us absolute dominance over the global economy and politics – but things are changing."

He dwelt on "wrong choices" made by a series of US Presidents long before Trump "Clinton's China policy, Bush's war policy, Obama's world financial crisis." In this astonishing obituary of Western power, Macron then turns to "our underestimating the rise of emerging powers, not just two years ago but as early as ten or twenty years ago." He insists that "that China and Russia have achieved great success over the years under different leadership styles." In Macron's world view, India looms too. "China, Russia, India, these countries compare well with the US, France and UK."

The political imagination of these countries "is far stronger than today's Westerners." He himself was shocked: China has lifted 700 million people out of poverty….. but in France "the market economy is increasing income inequality at an unprecedented rate."

It is nice that almost a decade after publication, Thomas Piketty's Capital In The 21st Century, a French statesman is taking note. Macron has candidly analysed, though not in these words, his own party having been trounced in the recent National Assembly Elections.

Macron is at present hemmed in by the Left alliance led by the charismatic Jean-Luc Melenchon and the far right, Marine Le Pen. What Macron does not mention is that at the sight of a larger than life Melenchon making a bid for the Prime Ministerial chair, the centrists with him, helped the ultra right, Le Pen, to increase her seat share. This increasingly is a pattern in Western democracies: people's demands articulated by the Left, threaten the Capitalists structure on which centrists stand.

With their control over instruments like the media they divert discontent by raking up issues of identity which is the staple for the far right everywhere. This is the crisis of Macron style Centrism in France as elsewhere.

This is not the first time that French exceptionalism has punctured the façade of Western unity. We do not have to go far into history. Charles De Gaulle's exceptionalism once famously drove him to end his speech in Quebec (Canada) with the French trade mark Vive la France. Churchill and Roosevelt found him conceited. He was convinced they conspired against him.

French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine would not tire in the late 90s describing the US as a "hyperpower" which needed to be contained by a stronger UN system. "The US supremacy extends to economic power, currency, technology, military, lifestyle, language and the products of mass culture that inundate our lives and which even the enemies of the US long for." Is this admiration or envy?

President Francois Mitterand was the most reluctant to join the "coalition of the willing" that Margaret Thatcher and President Bush Sr were drumming up for operation Desert Storm. He knew it was an operation to keep the Anglo-Americans on top of the post-Cold war world order. A reunified Germany was another anxiety. Commercial interests forced him to join.

In 2003, on the eve of the US invasion of Iraq, when the sole superpower moment shone bright, it was French exceptionalism which argued against the misadventure. The intervention by French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin is difficult to forget: his was the only statement against the strong current at that charged UN Security Council session. Later, Villepin, as Prime Minister, was even more blunt: France knew Americans did not wish to pursue the inspection route to establish the presence of weapons of mass destruction. "They wanted to invade and occupy."

Macron has rolled up his sleeves when the US is in decline. He has left room for deniability: he has, after all, only spoken to his officials in confidence. He must have known that the bombshell would explode. He has spelt out a new security architecture for Europe with room for Russia in it, a European army, a French strategy for the Indo-Pacific with the US. "France will promote a better integration of China's new silk route with the European connectivity strategy."

The rapidly changing global situation has placed India at a sweet spot, opening new strategic options on all sides. US decline post Ukraine likewise, encourages France to see itself as a Western power, with options all around. In the French framework the US is only one among equals.