風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
風蕭蕭 公平自由貿易 摧毀落後國家農業生產
風蕭蕭 2018年4月24日 於加拿大
2018年4月24日，文章 《中興門:芯片還算不上危機，真正的危機是糧食》令我深思。
西方鼓吹的公平自由貿易，限製他國政府扶持自己的經濟，其最大的危害，就是摧毀其它國家不發達的工業和農業。最突出的國家是海地，有報道：With cheap food imports, Haiti can't feed itself 有便宜的進口糧食，海地人卻在挨餓。這說明，盡管海地自己產的農產品成本高，但是，農民有事兒做，有飯吃。農業被廉價進口糧食擊垮之後，農民沒錢買，反而挨餓了。
其實，發達國家的政府都用各種手段間接或直接對農業進行經濟補貼，盡管如此，由於農業生產的特殊性，必須承受孤獨和辛苦，迫使年輕一代逃離農業生產，投向工業區，享受繁華的現代生活。加拿大的農業，就是如此。
我曾經看過一個帖子，一位華裔同胞買了農場，務農，太辛苦了，發牢騷，夏天，割不完的野草，成群的大蚊子叮咬，睜開眼睛忙到黑，總有幹不完的活。
中國農業也有長足進步，在平原地區，盡管受所有製的製約，散戶手中的田地，還是通過各種方式向大戶集中，國家對購買農機提供補貼，基本實現了機械化。還有可喜的是，大戶把散戶的田地通過租賃的方式集中起來，種植經濟作物，提高收益，散戶作為工人為大戶打工，各有所得，相得益彰。
中國人聰明，盡管受自然資源困乏的製約，糧食供應不是問題。
中興門: 芯片還算不上危機，真正的危機是糧食
轉載 作者：楊昭友 博訊北京時間2018年4月23日
https://boxun.com/news/gb/pubvp/2018/04/201804231219.shtml
2018年4月17日，美國政府宣布，在未來七年內禁止向我國中興出售以生產手機等通訊器材為主的元器件，其中包括芯片。 此消息一出 ，刺痛了國人的神經，從上到下，從媒體到坊間閑談，都在直呼 “中興危機”，“中興之痛”。然而，這算不上什麽危機。誠然，美國製裁中興 ，是對中興釜底抽薪，會在短期內給中興帶來困難 。對中華民族來說，不會因為美帝的驕橫而造成天下大亂，不會導致政權傾覆，相反，會激起中國接受教訓，擺脫唯美國馬首是瞻的思維，結束對美國大資產階級的依附。
真正的危機是什麽呢？是糧食！
可以設想一下，如果我們的糧食嚴重依賴美國，我們的種子嚴重依賴美國，突然有一天，美國宣布對華實行糧食禁運，中國會是什麽局麵？不消說，一個謠言缺糧就會導致人心惶惶（例如食鹽緊缺謠言，就造成搶購食鹽），隻要糧食開始短缺，國內有錢人就會搶購，囤積居奇；沒糧的為生存就會鋌而走險，會搶劫，會犯罪。僅此一招，中國就會亂成一鍋粥（大明王朝就是因為饑荒直接導致政權傾覆的，曾造成上億的人死於戰亂）。這樣，美國則會趁人之危，有限出口糧食，抬高糧價，同時扶持傀儡，顛覆中國政權，把中國大卸八塊。
也許有人說我危言聳聽。但危機是潛在的。18億畝的耕地紅線已經突破，而且耕地還在繼續減少。廣大的農村已經有大量的土地荒蕪。
我們的土地荒蕪，與美國有關係嗎？有！
美國通過糧食出口補貼，對我國實行糧食傾銷，使我們的農民種糧無利可圖，為了生存，不得不拋荒土地，尋找其他活路。而一家一戶的小農生產，無法實現機械化，無法用大農業來提高農業生產的效率，使糧食產量逐年減少，更加劇對美國糧食的依賴。
現在的農村，已經是老人農業和婦女農業，再過十年，還有誰在一畝三分地上堅持？
毫無疑問，這種小農生產，無法解決中國人民吃飯問題，而一家一戶的承包，又製約了機械化、集約化生產。雖然土地流轉、大戶轉包能在短期內解決部分糧食生產，可中國人口多，糧食需要量大，各地氣候、地形地貌不同，不是都適合大戶承包，也不能從根本上解決糧食問題。且由於中國重商輕農和因計劃生育孩子不多，大戶承包也有後繼乏人的問題。 未來的土地誰來種？中國的糧食依靠誰？不用說，繼續這種局麵，就得依靠進口，就得依賴美國，最後被美國把玩於股掌之中。
中興被製裁，其實沒什麽了不起，頂多是困難幾年，不會死人，不會大亂 。隻要有人，哪怕沒手機，沒電視，沒汽車，經過獨立自主、艱苦奮鬥，幾年後一切都可以創造出來。可是，沒有飯吃，即使全國的房子都用黃金建造，沒了人，一切都成了廢物。
寫此短文，隻為天下蒼生祈福，希望製訂政策的人們，未雨綢繆，擺脫XG精神的桎梏，走適合中國農業發展的康莊大道。
本人寫過《中國農村應該何處去》、《再論中國農村何處去》，對中國農業有過詳細論證。因公眾號無法再發，網友們可直接百度搜索標題找到文章。
With cheap food imports, Haiti can't feed itself
Decades of cheap imports, especially rice from the U.S., punctuated with abundant aid in various crises, have destroyed local agriculture and left impoverished countries such as Haiti unable to feed themselves.
updated 3/21/2010 7:41:15 AM ET
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — The earthquake not only smashed markets, collapsed warehouses and left more than 2.5 million people without enough to eat. It may also have shaken up the way the developing world gets food.
Decades of inexpensive imports — especially rice from the U.S. — punctuated with abundant aid in various crises have destroyed local agriculture and left impoverished countries such as Haiti unable to feed themselves.
While those policies have been criticized for years in aid worker circles, world leaders focused on fixing Haiti are admitting for the first time that loosening trade barriers has only exacerbated hunger in Haiti and elsewhere.
They're led by former U.S. President Bill Clinton — now U.N. special envoy to Haiti — who publicly apologized this month for championing policies that destroyed Haiti's rice production. Clinton in the mid-1990s encouraged the impoverished country to dramatically cut tariffs on imported U.S. rice.
"It may have been good for some of my farmers in Arkansas, but it has not worked. It was a mistake," Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 10. "I had to live everyday with the consequences of the loss of capacity to produce a rice crop in Haiti to feed those people because of what I did; nobody else."
Clinton and former President George W. Bush, who are spearheading U.S. fundraising for Haiti, arrive Monday in Port-au-Prince. Then comes a key Haiti donors' conference on March 31 at the United Nations in New York.
Those opportunities present the country with its best chance in decades to build long-term food production, and could provide a model for other developing countries struggling to feed themselves.
"A combination of food aid, but also cheap imports have ... resulted in a lack of investment in Haitian farming, and that has to be reversed," U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes told The Associated Press. "That's a global phenomenon, but Haiti's a prime example. I think this is where we should start."
Haiti's government is asking for $722 million for agriculture, part of an overall request of $11.5 billion.
That includes money to fix the estimated $31 million of quake damage to agriculture, but much more for future projects restoring Haiti's dangerous and damaged watersheds, improving irrigation and infrastructure, and training farmers and providing them with better support.
Haitian President Rene Preval, an agronomist from the rice-growing Artibonite Valley, is also calling for food aid to be stopped in favor of agricultural investment.
American-grown is cheapest
Today Haiti depends on the outside world for nearly all of its sustenance. The most current government needs assessment — based on numbers from 2005 — is that 51 percent of the food consumed in the country is imported, including 80 percent of all rice eaten.
The free-food distributions that filled the shattered capital's plazas with swarming hungry survivors of the Jan. 12 earthquake have ended, but the U.N. World Food Program is continuing targeted handouts expected to reach 2.5 million people this month. All that food has been imported — though the agency recently put out a tender to buy locally grown rice.
Street markets have reopened, filled with honking trucks, drink sellers clinking bottles and women vendors crouched behind rolled-down sacks of dry goods. People buy what's cheapest, and that's American-grown rice.
The best-seller comes from Riceland Foods in Stuttgart, Arkansas, which sold six pounds for $3.80 last month, according to Haiti's National Food Security Coordination Unit. The same amount of Haitian rice cost $5.12.
"National rice isn't the same, it's better quality. It tastes better. But it's too expensive for people to buy," said Leonne Fedelone, a 50-year-old vendor.
Riceland defends its market share in Haiti, now the fifth-biggest export market in the world for American rice.
But for Haitians, near-total dependence on imported food has been a disaster.
Cheap foreign products drove farmers off their land and into overcrowded cities. Rice, a grain with limited nutrition once reserved for special occasions in the Haitian diet, is now a staple.
Imports also put the country at the mercy of international prices: When they spiked in 2008, rioters unable to afford rice smashed and burned buildings. Parliament ousted the prime minister.
Now it could be happening again. Imported rice prices are up 25 percent since the quake — and would likely be even higher if it weren't for the flood of food aid, said WFP market analyst Ceren Gurkan.
Three decades ago things were different. Haiti imported only 19 percent of its food and produced enough rice to export, thanks in part to protective tariffs of 50 percent set by the father-son dictators, Francois and Jean-Claude Duvalier.
When their reign ended in 1986, free-market advocates in Washington and Europe pushed Haiti to tear those market barriers down. President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, freshly reinstalled to power by Clinton in 1994, cut the rice tariff to 3 percent.
Impoverished farmers unable to compete with the billions of dollars in subsidies paid by the U.S. to its growers abandoned their farms. Others turned to more environmentally destructive crops, such as beans, that are harvested quickly but hasten soil erosion and deadly floods.
Restoration efforts
There have been some efforts to restore Haiti's agriculture in recent years: The U.S. Agency for International Development has a five-year program to improve farms and restore watersheds in five Haitian regions. But the $25 million a year pales next to the $91.4 million in U.S.-grown food aid delivered just in the past 10 weeks.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization also distributed 28 tons of bean seeds in mountainous areas this month, with plans this week to distribute 49 tons of corn.
The G8 group of the world's wealthiest nations pledged $20 billion for farmers in poor countries last year. The head of the FAO called this week for some to be given to Haiti.
President Barack Obama's administration has pledged to support agriculture in developing nations. U.S. Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana has sponsored legislation to create a White House Global Food Security coordinator to improve long-term agriculture worldwide, with a budget of $8.5 billion through 2014.
Even Haiti's most powerful food importers have joined the push for locally produced food.
"I would prefer to buy everything locally and have nothing to import," said businessman Reginald Boulos, who is also president of Haiti's chamber of commerce.
But one group staunchly opposes reducing food exports to Haiti: the exporters themselves.
"Haiti doesn't have the land nor the climate ... to produce enough rice," said Bill Reed, Riceland's vice president of communications. "The productivity of U.S. farmers helps feed countries which cannot feed themselves."
