黑石2018年十大預測 Blackstone's ten surprises for 2018

黑石發布2018年十大預測！去年的準確度讓人虎軀一震

2018-01-04 08:39:24 來源：金融界基金

http://fund.jrj.com.cn/2018/01/04083923894456.shtml

黑石集團（Blackstone Group）顧問服務部副董事長、華爾街知名預言家Byron R. Wien 繼續發布新年十大意外事件預言，認為原油在2018年大漲，美元走強……Byron R. Wien 在每年年初給出十大意外事件的做法，已經堅持了33年；Byron R. Wien認為，這些事件發生的可能性超過50%。

Byron R. Wien 對2017年的十大預言：
一、標普500指數達到2500點。
二、美國GDP 增速超過3%。
三、特朗普將在所有問題上擯棄極端的處理方式和立場。
四、美元對日元匯率巨震。
五、通脹達到3%。
六、10年期美債收益率達到4%。
七、歐洲民粹主義抬頭，馬克龍競選失敗。
八、歐盟解散，歐元被棄。
九、中美貿易關係回暖。
十、中東局勢趨於平靜。

　　ZeroHedge 評論稱，Byron R. Wien對2017年的十大預言基本撲街，最多隻有兩條變成現實；但這絲毫不影響投資者，繼續關注Byron R. Wien對2018年十大“意外驚喜”點評。

2018年十大預測
一、朝鮮停止核試驗，但不會放棄現有核武器。
二、民粹主義、部落主義和無政府狀態將蔓延到世界各地。在英國，Jeremy Corbyn將成為下一任首相；西班牙加泰羅尼亞仍然將動蕩不安；英國脫歐讓洲將更加團結，經濟更快增長。
三、美元終於複活。美國經濟實際增長率將超過3%，再加上特朗普的刺激政策，投資者將重燃對美元計價資產的興趣，到時歐元兌美元將下跌至1.10，日元兌美元下跌至120。美國跨過企業回流海外資金也將提振美元。
四、美國經濟比2017年更加強勁。將導致標普500指數回調10%，將下降至2300點，但由於企業盈利持續向好，經濟增長向4%加速，指數將於年底重回3000以上。
五、WTI原油價格上漲到每桶80美元以上。主要受益於全球經濟持續複蘇和來自發展中市場出乎意料的需求，再加上生產乏力，庫存減少，OPEC減產等利好因素刺激。
六、通脹成為一個令人擔心的問題。全球經濟持續增長將給大眾商品價格帶來上漲壓力，工業化國家勞動力市場緊張將刺激工資上漲。在美國，平均時薪增速將接近4%，CPI將達到3%以上。
七、隨著通脹上升，利率開始走高。2018年，美聯儲將四次上調短期利率，十年期美國國債收益率上升至4%，但由於擔心對金融市場造成影響，美聯儲隻能溫和地收縮資產負債表。高收益息差將擴大，對股市造成困擾。
八、盡管特朗普不斷抨擊北美自由貿易協定和伊朗核協議，但它們都將被保留。因為，如果北美自由貿易協定被結束，將導致美國大量崗位流失，對於伊朗核協議，美國的盟友普遍表示支持。隨著中國在世界各地影響力的崛起，特朗普將開始意識到，沒有簽署TPP是一個錯誤，他將推進更多與亞洲的雙邊貿易。
九、共和黨將在11月中期選舉中失去對參議院和眾議院的控製權。選民對特朗普總統未能兌現競選期間做出的諸多承諾感到失望，同時特朗普無盡的推特也將激發越來越多的負麵反應。中期選舉將轉變為一場決定特朗普總統一職能否保留的全民公投。
十、中國將把重點放在信貸問題上，限製商業借貸，經濟減速。
此外，Byron R. Wien表示還有另外5大事件，也有成為十大意外事件的潛質。
一、歐洲企業公司盈利能力被投資者重視，遠東和新興市場增長相對於美國市場更快，機構全球投資組合更加包含範圍更廣。
二、人工智能將獲得明顯動力，法律和金融專業人員、快餐店和醫療保健行業從業人員的工作將被自動化；
三、網絡攻擊將更嚴重，會在一定程度上損害消費者信心。企業、金融機構的安全係統需要有大的升級。
四、歐洲和美國的監管部門開始關注互聯網商業模式的創造性破壞，迫於零售商和傳統媒體的壓力，他們將對亞馬遜、Facebook和穀歌開展反競爭行為調查；
五、比特幣風險不斷擴大，導致監管當局開始采取行動限製交易等。　　

Byron Wien Announces Ten Surprises for 2018

JAN 02, 2018

https://www.blackstone.com/media/press-releases/byron-wien-announces-ten-surprises-for-2018 

New York, January 2, 2018 – Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, today issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018. This is the 33rdyear Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.

Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2018 are as follows:

Also-rans:

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten because either I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

1. China finally decides that a nuclear capability in the hands of an unpredictable leader on its border is not tolerable even though North Korea is a communist buffer between itself and democratic South Korea. China cuts off all fuel and food shipments to North Korea, which agrees to suspend its nuclear development program but not give up its current weapons arsenal.


2. Populism, tribalism and anarchy spread around the world. In the United Kingdom Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next Prime Minister. In spite of repressive action by the Spanish government, Catalonia remains turbulent. Despite the adverse economic consequences of the Brexit vote, the unintended positive consequence is that it brings continental Europe closer together with more economic cooperation and faster growth.


3. The dollar finally comes to life. Real growth exceeds 3% in the United States, which, coupled with the implementation of some components of the Trump pro-business agenda, renews investor interest in owning dollar-denominated assets, and the euro drops to 1.10 and the yen to 120 against the dollar.  Repatriation of foreign profits held abroad by U.S. companies helps.  


4. The U.S. economy has a better year than 2017, but speculation reaches an extreme and ultimately the S&P 500 has a 10% correction. The index drops toward 2300, partly because of higher interest rates, but ends the year above 3000 since earnings continue to expand and economic growth heads toward 4%. 


5. The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude moves above $80. The price rises because of continued world growth and unexpected demand from developing markets, together with disappointing hydraulic fracking production, diminished inventories, OPEC discipline and only modest production increases from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran.


6. Inflation becomes an issue of concern. Continued world GDP growth puts pressure on commodity prices. Tight labor markets in the industrialized countries create wage increases. In the United States, average hourly earnings gains approach 4% and the Consumer Price Index pushes above 3%.


7. With higher inflation, interest rates begin to rise. The Federal Reserve increases short-term rates four times in 2018 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves toward 4%, but the Fed shrinks its balance sheet only modestly because of the potential impact on the financial markets. High yield spreads widen, causing concern in the equity market.


8. Both NAFTA and the Iran agreement endure in spite of Trump railing against them. Too many American jobs would be lost if NAFTA ended, and our allies universally support continuing the Iran agreement. Trump begins to think that not signing on to the Trans-Pacific Partnership was a mistake as he sees the rise of China’s influence around the world.  He presses for more bilateral trade deals in Asia.


9. The Republicans lose control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the November election. Voters feel disappointed that many promises made during Trump’s presidential campaign were not implemented in legislation and there is a growing negative reaction to his endless Tweets. The mid-term election turns out to be a referendum on the Trump Presidency.


10. Xi Jinping, having broadened his authority at the 19th Party Congress in October, focuses on China’s credit problems and decides to limit business borrowing even if it means slowing the economy down and creating fewer jobs. Real GDP growth drops to 5.5%, with only minor implications for world growth. Xi proclaims this move will ensure the sustainability of China’s growth over the long term.


11. Investors recognize that the earnings of companies in Europe, the Far East and the emerging markets are growing faster than those in the United States while the price earnings ratios in those regions are lower than those in America. Global investments become more broadly represented in institutional portfolios.


12. The Mueller investigation of the 2016 presidential election fails to implicate any members of the Trump family in collusion with Russian operatives.


13. Artificial intelligence gains visible momentum. Service sector jobs are automated, particularly clerks in legal and finance professions, as well as workers in fast food outlets and healthcare. Economists begin to question the unemployment data because the rate drops below 4% while so many people still appear to be out of work and seeking government assistance.


14. Cyberattacks become more prevalent and begin to affect consumer confidence. A major money center bank suspends deposits or withdrawals for three days because its system is penetrated. Numerous retail organizations report that customer personal information has been obtained by hackers. Those invading corporate information systems appear to be smarter and more innovative than the internal employees protecting the computer data, suggesting that the systems themselves need to be upgraded.


15. The regulatory authorities in Europe and the United States finally get concerned about the creative destruction of Internet-related businesses.  As a result of pressure from retailers and traditional media companies, they begin an investigation of anti-competitive practices at Amazon, Facebook and Google.  The public begins to think these companies have too much power.


16. The risks in Bitcoin are so great that regulatory authorities restrict trading.  Among their concerns are: no regulatory oversight; no safety and soundness measures; no recourse in the event of mistaken or miscalculated transactions; high cyber risk; no deposit insurance. (Risk source: Morgan Stanley.)

About Blackstone
Blackstone is one of the world’s leading investment firms. We seek to create positive economic impact and long-term value for our investors, the companies we invest in, and the communities in which we work. We do this by using extraordinary people and flexible capital to help companies solve problems. Our asset management businesses, with over $385 billion in assets under management, include investment vehicles focused on private equity, real estate, public debt and equity, non-investment grade credit, real assets and secondary funds, all on a global basis. Further information is available at www.blackstone.com. Follow Blackstone on Twitter @Blackstone.

The views expressed in this commentary are the personal views of Byron Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Blackstone itself. The views expressed reflect the current views of Mr. Wien as of the date hereof and neither Mr. Wien nor Blackstone undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.

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