2017 (187)
2022 (3)
在通脹的初期，適度的通脹對股市具有很強的助漲作用。因為：
(1)由於溫和的通脹刺激了經濟增長，而經濟的增長又推動了股市的上漲；
(2)由於通脹是流通中的貨幣增多，因此必然有一部分貨幣會流入股市，引起股市資金增加，需求擴大，從而推動了股市上漲；
(3)在物價全麵上漲的情況下，上市公司的資產也相應增值，必然引起公司股票價格的上漲。
在通脹的高漲階段，過度的通脹對股市具有較強的抑製作用。因為：
(1)高通脹造成企業高成本，從而使上市公司經營困難，公司股票下跌；
(2)高通脹必然引起宏觀調控政策發生逆轉，管理層不斷推出治理通脹的從緊政策，從而製約了經濟發展，造成股市的下跌；
(3)高通脹造成實際的負利率，會促使銀行利率不斷上調，造成企業資金緊張和股市資金困難，從而引起股市下跌。
Growth vs. Value Stock Performance and Inflation
Stocks are often broken down into subcategories of value and growth. Value stocks have strong current cash flows that will slow over time, while growth stocks have little or no cash flow today but are expected to gradually increase over time.15
Therefore, when valuing stocks using the discounted cash flow method, in times of rising interest rates, growth stocks are negatively impacted far more than value stocks.1617 Since interest rates are usually increased to combat high inflation, the corollary is that in times of high inflation, growth stocks will be more negatively impacted. This suggests a positive correlation between inflation and the return on value stocks and a negative one for growth stocks.
秒懂通貨膨脹與通貨緊縮的關係
通貨膨脹與通貨緊縮都是由社會總需求與社會總供給不平衡造成的，也就是流通中實際需要的貨幣量與發行量不平衡。無論通脹還是通縮都會使價格信號失真，影響正常的經濟生活和社會經濟秩序。
通貨緊縮和通貨膨脹，是世界經濟活動中常見現象。現在，歐元區和日本就出現通貨緊縮現象，津巴布韋和委內瑞拉就出現通貨膨脹。
通貨緊縮可以讓你的錢更值錢。但通貨緊縮的情況並不多見，也不會像通貨膨脹那樣嚴重。在歐元區，假設在2015年4月買一件商品需要1000歐元，到2016年4月買這件商品隻需要998歐元。
通貨膨脹可以讓你的財富化為烏有。在津巴布韋，如果在1980年有10億津元那是一筆巨資，當時可以兌換14.1億美元;但這10億津元到2009年1月1日隻能兌換1000萬億分之一美元。
嚴格地說，紙幣不算作是財富，因為紙幣的購買力會不斷發生變化，甚至會變成廢紙，這是因為通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮的緣故。接著聊聊通貨膨脹與通貨緊縮的5點不同。
1通脹與通縮本質不同：
通貨膨脹是指紙幣的發行量超過流通中所需要的數量，從而引起紙幣貶值、物價上漲的經濟現象，其實質是社會總需求大於總供給;通貨緊縮是與通貨膨脹相反的一種經濟現象，是指在經濟相對萎縮時期，物價總水平較長時間內持續下降，貨幣不斷升值的經濟現象，其實質是社會總供給持續大於社會總需求。
2通脹與通縮表現不同：
通貨膨脹最直接的表現是紙幣貶值，物價上漲，購買力降低。通貨緊縮往往伴隨著生產下降，市場萎縮，企業利潤率降低，生產投資減少，以及失業增加、收入下降，經濟增長乏力等現象。主要表現為物價低迷，大多數商品和勞務價格下跌。
3通脹與通縮成因不同：
通貨膨脹的成因主要是社會總需求大於社會總供給，貨幣的發行量超過了流通中實際需要的貨幣量。
通貨緊縮的成因主要是社會總需求小於社會總供給，長期的產業結構不合理，形成買方市場及出口困難。
4通脹與通縮危害性不同：
通貨膨脹直接使紙幣貶值，如果居民的收入沒有變化，生活水平就會下降，造成社會經濟生活秩序混亂，不利於經濟的發展。不過在一定時期內，適度的通貨膨脹又可以刺激消費，擴大內需，推動經濟發展。
通貨緊縮導致物價下降，在一定程度上對居民生活有好處，但從長遠看會嚴重影響投資者的信心和居民的消費心理，導致惡性的價格競爭，對經濟的長遠發展和人民的長遠利益不利。
5通脹與通縮治理措施不同：
治理通貨膨脹最根本的措施是發展生產，增加有效供給，同時要采取控製貨幣供應量，實行適度從緊的貨幣政策和量入為出的財政政策等措施。
治理通貨緊縮要調整優化產業結構，綜合運用投資、消費、出口等措施拉動經濟增長，實行積極的財政政策、穩健的貨幣政策、正確的消費政策，堅持擴大內需的方針。
Interestingly, the rate of change in inflation does not impact the returns of value versus growth stocks as much as the absolute level. The thought is that investors may overshoot their future growth expectations and upwardly misprice growth stocks. In other words, investors fail to recognize when growth stocks become value stocks, and the downward impact on growth stocks is harsh.18
Income-Generating Stocks and Inflation
When inflation increases, purchasing power declines, and each dollar can buy fewer goods and services. For investors interested in income-generating stocks, or stocks that pay dividends, the impact of high inflation makes these stocks less attractive than during low inflation, since dividends tend to not keep up with inflation levels.19
In addition to lowering purchasing power, the taxation on dividends causes a double-negative effect.20 Despite not keeping up with inflation and taxation levels, dividend-yielding stocks do provide a partial hedge against inflation.
Similar to the way interest rates impact the price of bonds—when rates rise, bond prices fall—dividend-paying stocks are affected by inflation: When inflation is on the upswing, income stock prices generally decline. So owning dividend-paying stocks in times of increasing inflation usually means the stock prices will decrease. But investors looking to take positions in dividend-yielding stocks are allowed to buy them cheap when inflation is rising, providing attractive entry points.
The Bottom Line
Investors try to anticipate the factors that impact portfolio performance and make decisions based on their expectations. Inflation is one of those factors that affect a portfolio. In theory, stocks should provide some hedge against inflation, because a company's revenues and profits should grow at the same rate as inflation, after a period of adjustment. However, inflation's varying impact on stocks confuses the decision to trade positions already held or to take new positions. In the U.S. market, the historical proof is noisy, but it does show a correlation to high inflation and lower returns for the overall market in most periods.
When stocks are divided into growth and value categories, the evidence is clearer that value stocks perform better in high inflation periods, and growth stocks perform better during low inflation. One way investors can predict expected inflation is to analyze the commodity markets, although the tendency is to think that if commodity prices are rising, stocks should rise since companies “produce” commodities. However, high commodity prices often squeeze profits, which in turn reduces stock returns. Therefore, following the commodity market may provide insight into future inflation rates.21
