RCA認為股市下跌是成熟牛市的一次調整,不是熊市的開始.

今晨,看到RCA的周報指出:當前股市下跌是成熟牛市的一次調整. 有關觀點全文如下:

A Maturing Equity Bull Market

According to our Global Investment Strategy service, the recent shakeout in risky assets should be regarded as part of the maturing process of the equity bull market.

This episode is very similar to the recession fears of 1998, which prompted Fed easing. The subsequent rally in stocks was powerful but led to increased volatility and ultimately ended in a crash two years later. We suspect that a similar pattern could play out this time around. Equities still offer reasonable value and should receive significant upside as investment capital gets funneled into fewer assets. Narrowing breadth of asset price inflation is a typical characteristic of a maturing market. In this cycle, commodities, government bonds, real estate and credit products have already largely been inflated but stocks still have room for further multiple expansion once the current turmoil in the credit market subsides. However, investors should be prepared for permanently higher volatility, which tends to accompany richer valuations. Bottom line: The bull market in equities, while in a maturing phase, should offer investors significant upside over the next two years.

附: TSX 1998年股災及其恢複圖:



由上圖可見,98年的股災, TSX也是在7月中(見圖中圈)開始突然加速下跌, 下跌了7周後起穩,然後用了7周的時間築成W底,,於10月下旬開始突破底部上行.


下圖是當時的日線圖,它更能反映其築底的過程和所花的時間:




由這個日線圖可見, TSX 98年的調整波: A波用了7周時間, B波用了15個交易日, C波用了12個交易日. C波的最底點大約在10月上旬左右.

結論:

若本次TSX調整果真如RCA所分析的那樣,即與98年的情形相似並重複曆史的話,那麽TSX有可能在下周衝擊MA50,及試探14000,這樣一來,從A波底部到B點可能以來用了大約16天, 若C波用2~4周話,那末, TSX將有可能在9月下旬或10月上旬接近C波底部,然後結束調整開始上行.