為什麽我們認為黃金板塊的突破有可能是真突破.

 

黃金自去年4月創$732/OZ以來,一直處於上下震蕩格局.

 

黃金板塊(以HUI為代表)也一直盤整中,多次出現假突破.尤其是近一個多月出現兩次假突破. 令投資人損失不少.

 

昨日,在黃金下跌時,各黃金股指數(HUI.XUA,SPTGD)都出現了強力反彈,並再一次突破下降趨勢線(見本人昨日POST 今日黃金板塊又有突破 )

 

今日,黃金及黃金股指數再一次上升,繼續FOLLOW-THROUGN昨日行情. 我們不禁要問: 這次黃金板塊突破是否有會FAKOUT?.

 

經過技術分析,我們認為這此黃金板塊的突破有可能是真突破.主要理由如下:

 

1. HUI與黃金比(HUI:GOLD)突破自去年高點以來的長達一年多的下降趨勢線(見圖中圓圈部分),這是黃金板塊非常非常強的BULL信號.有可能預示一倫新的黃金板塊牛市行情開始!!
   
   

 

 HUI/GOLD RAIO被認為是金股領先指標,是許多職業人士作為買入黃金板塊的信號.

因此這個信號有可能觸發機構建立金股LONG艙位.

 

2.許多指數股如ABX.TO,NEM.TO,G.TO,AEM.TO等都在形態上處於W底部突破形態,這類股占了SPTGD指數的40%以上,對指數有重大貢獻,因此,他們觸底反彈並開始一掄新的牛市行情有可能帶動整個板塊.

在基本麵方麵:

 

1.昨日,NEM宣布取消HEDGE 部分,市場認為公司對未來黃金看好有信心,AFTERHOUR,NEM大漲2.2%, 今日NEM繼續發燒,漲5.31%@10:23AM;

2.昨日, RBC Dominion Securities Inc.研究報告稱: 

 

GOLD:Seasonal Upturn Appears Imminent,並Summary:

 

Seasonality for gold typically bottoms out through July, and then moves up strongly from early August into October. Intermediate momentum for bullion is oversold, and key stocks have already started to register new intermediate momentum upturns. The stocks’ relative strength to bullion over the past month is a technical indication of emerging strength for the sector.

 

Key Technical Features:

• Intermediate momentum oversold and bottoming (p 1,3).

• Gold stocks outperforming bullion since early June (p 2).

• Commitment of Traders data consistent with prior turning points (p 2).

 

Action: Increase exposure to golds on any near-term weakness, and become more aggressive on a bullion close above 665.80 and an HUI Gold Stock Index close above 341.55 (see charts below)

 

並推薦了三個股票:G.TO, AEM.TO,SLW.TO

 

3.      今日, Scotia Capital is ‘extremely bullish’ on gold, silver and diamond prices, 預期黃金07年觸及$750,08年觸及$800 (全文見連接: http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=23059&sn=Detail)

 

綜上所述, 我們認為這次黃金板塊的突破有可能是真突破.

 

聲明:上述分析不代表投資建議,讀者自行承擔投資風險.