石油領導一切

石油(WITC)今日突破長達個多月的頭肩底(見下圖),極大地激起TSX的人氣,今日TSX大漲142點(1.04%)
.重新回到14000.



前幾日,知名技術派分析人士-Clive Maund 在其"Oil Market Update"(6-12-2007)中,

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund061207.html

指出:

" Oil has stubbonly refused to break above the clear line of resistranceat the $67 level, a break above which would be a bullish development that would be expected to lead an another strong run . With the dollar expected to strenthen and gold and silver weaken it seems highly   unlikely that oil will be the odd man out and rally. Other negative factors are the berishly aligned 200-ma moving average and last week 's marked increase in the Commercial 's short positions .  Overall, however, this is much more positive picture than that for gold and silver although a decline at least back to the support about $61 looks likely over the short to medium".

Clive Maund 認為石油和貴金屬不可能背離. 在金銀形態非常BEARISH而美元反彈強勁的前提下,盡管石油形態和被看好(頭肩底),石油很有可能在再次遭遇$67的阻力下回落到$61.

今天石油的強勁表現並一舉突破67的頸線,另行家大跌眼鏡. 成如Clive Maund 指出,若石油有效突破的話,那末很有可能產生新的一輪上升行情.

今日,TSX能源板在石油大漲的帶領下,強勁突破MA20均線,重新回到柏林段上半通到.關鍵是這兩天的成交量放大,對這個突破是有力的支持.



由於能源板在TSX中的龍頭老大(重要權重)地位,他的強健突破(MA20)再次領軍TSX一改TSX上周的頹勢, 有可能在未來帶來新的高度.

我們調整短期的走熊的看法,在未來的調整中,將重新補倉.

看來,建立好恰當的組合,以不變應萬變乃是上策.

少發言,多思考.

[土村大家庭]

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