2007年金山基金投資組合-金山2007年最優投資組合設計係列文章(1)

根據去年底的調研,,經過研究決定,金山基金的投資組合選定如下板塊作為SECTOR ROTATION:

黃金(10%);
資源(10%);
中國基金(10%);
新興市場(10%);
科技衛生(10%).

加上CORE基金(50%),構成2007年目標組合.

采用如下預期參考數據(板塊-回報率-風險)

黃金-30%-25%;
資源-20%-20%
中國基金-30%-15%;
新興市場-20%-17%;
科技衛生-20%-20%.
核心-10%-10%


設計出2007年金山基金投資組合的預期結果:

回報率-17%;
風險(均方差)-13.34%.

說明:
1.板塊將根據經濟氣候做適當調整;
2.使用的斜相關矩陣隨機確定,不是市場統計結果;
3.各板塊的預期回報率是目標基金的過去三年平均回報率.
4.組合的MIX取平均分配比例,不是最優解(FOINTIER).

[beibei_sd2004]

Excellent post and thank you Jim for the nice sharing!

I agree to overweight Gold, China and Technology in 2007 and have a couple of quick questions:

1 What's your recommended asset allocation for year 2007 in term of US large equity/US medium or small equity/International EAFE/Emerging Market/Commodities (gold etc)/Bond/Cash?

Usually there are some overlaps among some funds: e.g China Fund is part of Emerging market fund; Technology occupies around 20% of US large index (SP500) fund etc. I am not sure if you used Morningstar X-ray and I personally like it a not.

2 Efficient frontier is a great theory for asset allocation and portfolio management. It maximums the returns while minimizes the risks. What's your suggestion on this?

Thanks again