金山投資理財
風險聲明:這是一個記載學習理財炒股的個人心得筆記. 對他人采用本博客信息導致的失誤和損失本人不承擔任何義務和責任,敬請鑒涼.
其基本論據是:
1. 最近中國宣布有1萬億(1T)外匯儲備,而中國隻有1.3%的黃金儲備.最近中央銀行行長宣布國家將采取多樣化儲備(ALTERNAITVE),是人聯想黃金是另類投資儲備的對象.假使中國增加黃金儲備到5%,意味將買500億價值的黃金,這及有可能是黃金攀升到1000/OZ.
2. 美國負債有9萬億(9T).這導致美育弱,黃金強勢.
If China were to lay its $1 trillion in reserves end-to-end using dollar bills, the trail of paper would stretch for 96,906,565 miles. That’s enough to wrap around the widest part of the earth 3,876 times!
Clearly, Beijing’s coffers are overflowing. In fact, China has the largest foreign reserves of any country in the history of the planet. Compare that to Washington, which owes nearly $9 trillion, not counting contingent liabilities.
Whose paper currency do you think should have more purchasing power? Naturally, the yuan. Yet that’s not the case — the dollar remains stronger. But not for long. Here’s why ...
China Is Going to Corner
The World’s Gold Market
I warned of this nearly three years ago, but now the signs are even clearer: Over the next few years China is essentially going to corner the world’s gold market. In the process, the price of the precious yellow metal could soar to well over $1,000 per ounce, and eventually to more than $2,000 an ounce.
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Mind you, this won’t be intentional on China’s part. Beijing will not set out to consciously “corner” the gold market. But, in effect, that will be the end result.
Take it from me. I’ve met with central bankers, banking regulators, and gold traders in China. I know their views on the yuan and gold. I’ve been told that China will be buying up huge amounts of gold.
You see, Beijing knows that the rest of the world perceives China’s economy as loaded down with hidden debts and plagued by corruption. So as China progresses toward superpower economic status, authorities in Beijing want the country’s currency to be a world-class, stable medium of exchange.
They envision the yuan as a major international currency some day, with as much (or more) status than the U.S. dollar. That’s why they’re going to back the yuan with gold ... loads of it.
Consider this: China has a mere 1.3% of its reserves in gold (600 tons). That’s the lowest of any industrialized economy! To put it into perspective ...
- The U.S. has nearly 75% of its foreign reserves in gold.
- The European Union has 26.5% of its reserves in gold.
- Lithuania, Mozambique, and even tiny Nepal all have more of their reserves in gold than China.
| Tonnes | %of reserves | Tonnes | %of reserves | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States | 8,133.5 | 74.5% | Nigeria | 21.4 | 1.1% |
Germany | 3,423.5 | 61.4% | Ukraine | 17.3 | 1.9% |
IMF | 3,217.3 | 1) | Belarus | 16.5 | 24.6% |
France | 2,768.0 | 62.9% | Cyprus | 14.5 | 5.9% |
Italy | 2,451.8 | 66.1% | Korea | 14.3 | 0.1% |
Switzerland | 1,290.1 | 42.1% | Brazil | 13.7 | 0.4% |
Japan | 765.2 | 1.8% | Czech Republic | 13.5 | 0.9% |
ECB | 662.9 | 25.8% | Netherlands Antilles | 13.1 | 34.9% |
Netherlands | 654.9 | 57.3% | Jordan | 12.7 | 4.6% |
China | 600.0 | 1.3% | Cambodia | 12.4 | 19.7% |
Spain | 457.7 | 48.9% | Mongolia | 8.9 | 22.3% |
Taiwan | 423.3 | 3.2% | Ghana | 8.7 | 8.9% |
Portugal | 402.5 | 80.3% | Latvia | 7.7 | 4.4% |
Russia | 385.5 | 3.0% | El Salvador | 7.3 | 6.3% |
India | 357.7 | 4.4% | Myanmar | 7.2 | 13.8% |
Venezuela | 357.1 | 23.3% | CEMAC | 7.1 | 2.1% |
United Kingdom | 310.3 | 14.1% | Colombia | 6.9 | 1.0% |
Austria | 290.8 | 43.3% | Guatemala | 6.9 | 3.5% |
Lebanon | 286.8 | 31.0% | Macedonia, FYR | 6.8 | 8.1% |
Belgium | 227.7 | 34.9% | Tunisia | 6.8 | 3.5% |
Algeria | 173.6 | 4.9% | Lithuania | 5.8 | 2.7% |
BIS | 165.8 | 1) | Ireland | 5.5 | 11.9% |
Sweden | 161.8 | 12.1% | Sri Lanka | 5.2 | 3.6% |
Philippines | 146.3 | 14.0% | Slovenia | 5.1 | 1.2% |
Libya | 143.8 | 5.8% | Bahrain | 4.7 | 1) |
Saudi Arabia | 143.0 | 11.3% | Nepal | 4.0 | 4.8% |
Singapore | 127.4 | 2.0% | Mexico | 3.5 | 0.1% |
South Africa | 124.1 | 10.5% | Canada | 3.4 | 0.2% |
Turkey | 116.1 | 3.9% | Aruba | 3.1 | 18.1% |
Greece | 108.1 | 76.2% | Hungary | 3.1 | 0.3% |
Romania | 104.8 | 8.4% | Kyrgyz Republic | 2.6 | 7.7% |
Poland | 102.9 | 4.3% | Luxembourg | 2.3 | 17.1% |
Indonesia | 96.4 | 4.8% | Albania | 2.2 | 2.8% |
Thailand | 84.0 | 2.9% | Hong Kong | 2.1 | 0.0% |
Australia | 79.8 | 3.4% | Iceland | 2.0 | 4.0% |
Kuwait | 79.0 | 14.5% | Papua New Guinea | 2.0 | 4.0% |
Egypt | 75.6 | 6.7% | Mauritius | 1.9 | 2.8% |
Denmark | 66.5 | 4.3% | Trinidad and Tobago | 1.9 | 0.7% |
Pakistan | 65.3 | 10.3% | Mozambique | 1.7 | 2.9% |
Kazakhstan | 59.8 | 8.8% | Yemen | 1.6 | 0.5% |
Argentina | 54.7 | 4.2% | Tajikistan | 1.3 | 14.0% |
Finland | 49.1 | 13.8% | Suriname | 1.1 | 9.9% |
Bulgaria | 39.8 | 7.6% | Cameroon | 0.9 | 1.5% |
WAEMU | 36.5 | 9.7% | Honduras | 0.7 | 0.5% |
Malaysia | 36.4 | 0.9% | Qatar | 0.6 | 0.2% |
Slovak Republic | 35.1 | 5.4% | Dominican Republic | 0.6 | 0.6% |
Peru | 34.7 | 4.8% | Gabon | 0.4 | 0.8% |
Bolivia | 28.3 | 21.5% | Malawi | 0.4 | 5.3% |
Ecuador | 26.3 | 22.3% | Central African Rep | 0.3 | 4.7% |
Morocco | 22.0 | 2.4% | Chad | 0.3 | 2.8% |
Just to up its reserves to 5% in gold, Beijing would have to purchase $50 billion worth. That could easily send the yellow metal skyrocketing to more than $1,000 an ounce.
And if China were to match roughly half of the gold reserves held by the United States, it would have to buy another $300 billion worth. That kind of buying would send gold to more than $2,000 an ounce.
We’re getting closer and closer to the day when this starts unfolding. Why?
A few months ago, China announced that it will plow at least 2.5% of its trade surplus into gold. That’s a staggering $2.5 billion of brand new demand for gold every year.
Then, last week, People’s Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China’s government is seeking alternative investments to risky U.S. dollars.
My view: China has probably already started purchasing gold. That’s one of the reasons gold is now trading in the $625 range, well above important support levels on the charts between $590 and $600 an ounce.
This is why I suggest getting more aggressive in gold right now. By the time Beijing officially declares that it’s buying gold, it will be too late.
Another Reason Why
Gold Can Triple, and
Four Ways to Profit
In terms of the purchasing power of today’s dollars, gold reached $2,176 in 1980. But right now, it’s trading near $625 an ounce, less than one-third of its inflation-adjusted high. This alone suggests that gold has much more upside.
Even if gold got halfway to its inflation-adjusted price, it would zoom to more than $1,000 an ounce, more than a 50% gain from current levels.
So is gold undervalued? You bet it is! Just to catch up with inflation, it should soar above $2,000 an ounce. China’s buying would just be the icing on the cake.
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I believe gold is still one of the best bets out there, loaded with huge profit opportunities. No matter what aspect of the market I examine, I see much, much higher prices. So, without further delay, here are four ways to get a stake in gold ...
First, you can buy bullion. For small amounts, a convenient vehicle is 1- and 10-ounce gold ingots. It might be a good idea to own some physical gold this way, but don’t go overboard. It’s too much of a pain in the butt to transport and store it.
Second, I think the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) exchange-traded fund is a “must-own” investment. Each share represents 1/10 of an ounce of pure gold. And the metal is stored for you! This is the single best way I know of to own physical gold.
Third, consider gold mutual funds like DWS Gold and Precious Metal (SCGDX) and Tocqueville Gold (TGLDX). You can pack them away, with a view toward holding them for at least a couple years. In my view, these funds could double, triple, even quadruple, over that timeframe.
Fourth, you can invest in individual gold stocks. But be careful here. The irony of today’s bull market in gold is that some gold mining companies may actually go out of business as the price of gold soars. Reason: They still hedge too much of their gold production and/or reserves. As I always remind my Real Wealth Report subscribers, you need to be selective.
Best wishes,
Larry
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About MONEY AND MARKETS
MONEY AND MARKETS (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson, Nilus Mattive, and Tony Sagami. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM. Nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical inasmuch as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include John Burke, Amber Dakar, Monica Lewman-Garcia, Wendy Montes de Oca, Kristen Adams, Jennifer Moran, Red Morgan, and Julie Trudeau.
