哈伯的大市盤點及我的心得體會

今日搜索文章看到一個叫哈伯的文章: "大市盤點" (Investment Commentary), 文章見如下連接:

http://www.hable.ca/downloads/Commentary.pdf

閱後總體印象是作者對未來股市的走勢是嚴重看熊. 摘要如下:

1. 在經曆四年的牛市後,全球股市將在來年有大幅下跌行情而在2007年步入熊市("Expect a much choppier stock market in the years ahead with the emphasis on short-term trades","Expect now a serious decline into autumn, and a cyclical bear market into 2007")

2.VIX - Volatility Index形成一個下降契型"descending wedge",作者預測是向上突破,向上突破意味股市看熊.(VIX越大,股市月洶)

3. GOLD正孕育著一個向上突破的對稱三角形,未來看漲

4.NASDAQ和半導體板將下跌

5.TSX將下跌,具體的評價是:

CANADIAN STOCK INDEX: Still in strong and solid shape, BUT will break any day now the blue trend line to the downside. We will get maybe some more rally days (extent and duration unclear right now) followed by a decline. Possible target of the decline is the 10,000 area (estimate only!). Ambitious shorts can try to place positions on a break of the blue trend line to the downside.

作者的GENERAL GUIDELINES TO TRADERS AND INVESTORS

Expect now a serious decline into autumn, and a cyclical bear market into 2007. It is possible that we still get some additional rally days in the coming1 - 2 week (till mid-September), but the extent of it and the timing is fully unclear. More decline will follow.

Mind your risk management, as the financial markets will - as always - do anything to empty the pockets of the largest possible number of traders and investors.

Don't enter shorts prematurely, only short once the conditions as set out below in the trade recommendations are fulfilled. Just because we assume a medium term decline, it is prohibitive to bank one's farm on it. Respect the conditions for new trades. Shorts are much riskier than longs due to the higher volatility. Only short securities with high volume (well above 750,000 shares traded daily).

A warning to the current correction: don't short biotech, small caps, pharma, utilities, commodities and energy. These sectors have an inherent long-term upward bias, and therefore have a higher chance to cause losses to shorts. On the other side, these sectors are not useful for counter cyclical long positions in a declining market, because they usually decline in sympathy with the general market, although not as strong.

作者提出的建議:

MODEL PORTFOLIO

75% cash and 25% for trading in the markets
OR
25% cash, 50% in the below mentioned long-term investments and 25% for trading in the markets.

Short-term trade recommendations see below. Model portfolio will be modified in autumn 2006.

SHORT-TERM TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS (new as of 3-Sep-2006

Enter shorts now as follows:

Divide your capital 50% - 50% on DAX and NDX futures and enter shorts in both indexes on a break of the blue trend line to the downside. Stop loss on breakeven or 2% counter movement of the underlying. Be prepared for whipsaw and a choppy / volatile trading environment.

LONG-TERM INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS

As long-term investments the following can be recommended:

• Turkish government bonds denominated in Euro (buy only below par, buy the shorter end and hold till maturity)
• Gold (GLD)
• Japanese stock index certificates
• Venture capital and private equity funds
• Biotechnology funds (only those that are actively managed!)
• Oil related securities
• Individual real estate projects (no REITS please).

"Long-term" investment means holding periods of 5 years or longer.
This list will be updated again when it will be clear what the time after autumn 2006 will bring.

我個人的心得:

1.堅定自己的PORTFOLIO信念.
2寧可信其有,不可信其無,在戰略上要有所準備.在適當時候對PORTFOLIO做防禦性調整;
3不要被作者的悲觀預測所嚇倒.預測不一定代表現實.目前,TSX仍在上升通道.
4但目前要高度保持警惕.TSX上周收12145.具趨勢底線在12000隻有145點之遙,仍不是十分牢靠,可以說,一天就可輕易跌破.200天均線是11700,也隻有400點的距離,若來一個五月那樣的調整,也隻需兩天就可轉熊.
5.黃金市場原則是:跟隨趨勢走.若趨勢改變,則響應的投資策略就要改變(轉熊或看牛)

個人應對措施(策略):

1. 主力(CORE)部分不變;
2.中間部隊做防禦性調整(RISK從12.75下降到5.5和7.5);
3.先頭部隊放在資源黃金板,這些板塊未來預計看漲.