能源還有戲嗎?

最近,來自能源SECTORS的表現和消息給人們一混濁信息.反映在:

1.TSX能源SECTOR STPTEN在過去5周,出現4周的SELL-OFF,各種背離顯示機構在出貨,能源上升幅度的勢頭在減弱;
2. 上周收陽,有反轉跡象,其有效性有待證實;
3..石油股票季節性很強,大多數的石油股通暢在4-6月達到低點,而在9-10月達到高點.
4. OIL 供求矛盾必將導致新的替代能源研究的開發和發展,其進展將導致石油市場(股票市場)大跌,如80年代出現的石油危機及其緩解的情形,導致石油價格下跌80%.


http://www.ibnlive.com/news/oil-demand-will-die-out-saudi-minister/11606-2.html:

Nicosia: Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi has said that industrialized countries were studying intensely the use of alternative forms of energy, which would lead to limiting world demand for oil and reliance on Arab oil.

Addressing the 8th Arab Energy Conference in Amman on May 14, he said that Arab petroleum producers should take note of developments such as talks on the future of nuclear power, increased use of coal, energy-efficient vehicles, enactment of regulations on energy efficiency and the expansion of non –conventional oil development.

Their impact will not be felt in the next two or three years, "but the telltale signs are beginning to show now," he said.

Naimi reminded participants of the 1980’s crisis, when industrialized countries managed to reduce oil consumption and to increase the use of alternative energy sources, which caused oil prices to plummet by 80 percent and Arab oil production to fall by 50 percent.

5. 中國石油供應風險對石油股票的影響:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/27/content_4609449.htm

BEIJING, May 27 (Xinhua) -- China's oil supply is facing risks, which need to be solved mainly through domestic efforts, an oil expert said.

    Zhu Jianjun, a researcher with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China's largest oil producer, said at a forum on China's energy strategy recently that it is not oil shortage but the uneven distribution of oil resources that caused instability in the world oil market.

    Soaring oil price is the first risk, Zhu said.

    Rapid growth of the world economy has led to a sharp rise of oil consumption in recent years. Conflicts and financial speculation also help to drive oil price higher. Depreciation of the U.S. dollar is another factor for the oil price hikes, he said.

    According to statistics, China spent 43 billion US dollars importing oil in 2004 and the figure rose to over 50 billion US dollars in 2005.

    Zhu predicted that China's spending on oil imports will keep rising as its imports increase and international oil price remains at a high level.

    Transportation also poses a problem for China's oil supply, Zhu said.

    China now imports 140 to 150 million tons of oil a year, and over 70 percent of the imports have to go through the Malacca Straits in Southeast Asia. As the channel is now near its capacity, other channels have to be found, he said.

    China imported some 110 million tons of crude oil in 2004, but only 9 percent was shipped by Chinese oil tankers.

    According to statistics of Shanghai Shipping Exchange, by October 2005 China had more than 590 oil tankers with a combined capacity of only 12 million deadweight tons.

    To remove the risks, China must rely on increasing domestic oil and natural gas supply as well as develop overseas sources to ensure diversified supply and transportation channels, Zhu said.

    China should establish its own oil strategic reserve system and early warning system, improve energy efficiency and develop alternative energies to reduce oil consumption so as to ensure oil supply security, he said.

結論: ?

投資策略:季節性適當買賣,一遇風向改變,出逃要快!!

風險聲明: 能源板塊是高風險項目,風險自負.