http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2020980,00.html
請教各位的問題
1/這裏的facto peg 是什麽意思? Beijing ended a two-year de facto peg between the yuan and the dollar in June
2/這裏的agenda 是什麽意思? That beggar-thy-neighbor agenda encourages others to pursue similar policies
Once again the U.S. and China find themselves in a spat over the Chinese currency, the yuan. Many politicians and economists in the U.S. believe that Beijing manipulates the yuan's value to keep it artificially cheap to give Chinese exports an unfair price advantage in international markets, thus holding back America's economic recovery. In a sign of growing frustration in Washington, a bill in the House of Representatives would direct the U.S. government to slap punitive duties on goods from countries that keep their currencies undervalued. The bill is clearly targeted at China. One of its authors, Congressman Tim Ryan, recently warned that the U.S. "cannot continue to look the other way as China's currency policies slowly but steadily smother what remains of our American manufacturing." An adviser to China's central bank shot back that Beijing "will not appreciate the yuan solely because of external pressure."
中美又開始因中國貨幣人民幣的問題爭吵. 美國的許多政客和經濟學家認為北京操縱人民幣，人為地貶值使得中國出口商在國際市場上得到不公正的價格優勢，從而遏製了美國的經濟複蘇. 華盛頓的惱怒不斷上升跡象是:眾議院的一項議案要求政府對來自將本國貨幣貶值的國家的貨物征收懲罰性關稅. 此議案矛頭直指中國. 發起人之一的議員TIM RYAN近來警告美國政府"不能繼續左顧而言他，而中國的貨幣政策正在慢慢地但是穩定地窒息我們美國剩下的生產業." 一中國央行顧問回擊說北京"不會僅僅因為外界的壓力而使人民幣升值".
Beijing ended a two-year de facto peg between the yuan and the dollar in June. Since then, the yuan has appreciated less than 2% against the dollar, with much of that change suspiciously coming in the days surrounding congressional testimony by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on China's yuan policy. Geithner said China intervenes in currency markets "on a very substantial scale to limit the upward pressure of market forces" on the yuan. How much the yuan is undervalued is a matter of speculation and debate. But clearly it is undervalued. We know this because it tends to get stronger when Beijing does allow its value to change.
Beijing ended a two-year de facto peg between the yuan and the dollar in June. 從那以來，人民幣相對於美元升值了不到百分之二，被疑為僅為在美國財政秘書TIMOTHY GEIGHNER在國會聽證前後的日子作出的變化. GEIGHNER說中國幹涉貨幣市場，大幅度抑製市場人民幣上揚的壓力. 人民幣在多大程度上被貶值隻是個需要推測和辯論的問題. 但是很清楚人民幣是被貶值了的. 我們知道這個因為北京在同意人民幣改變價值的時候，人民幣傾向於更堅挺.
Nevertheless, a stronger yuan is no cure-all for America's economic ills. Sure, if Beijing allowed the yuan to appreciate, China's giant trade surplus with the U.S. — the main target of Washington's ire — could shrink. Imports would become cheaper for Chinese consumers and companies, stimulating American exports to China and creating badly needed jobs in the U.S. But a stronger yuan would not automatically balance trade between the U.S. and China. Between 2005 and 2008, when the yuan appreciated about 21% against the dollar, America's trade deficit with China increased. China simply produces too many of the basic consumer goods Americans need to buy, from toys to PCs. That's why fixing the imbalances between the two countries will take much more than currency movements. It requires major structural reforms in both economies. Americans have to save more and spend less; Chinese have to spend more and save less.
無論如何，人民幣升值並非是解決美國經濟問題的萬能藥. 肯定的是，如果北京同意人民幣升值，中國相對於美國的巨額貿易順差(華盛頓怒氣衝衝的主要目標)就會減縮. 進口貨對於中國消費者和公司會更便宜，會刺激美國對華出口，增加美國急需的就業崗位. 但是人民幣升值不會自動平衡中美貿易. 在2005年到2008年間，人民幣相對於美元升值百分之二十一，而美國對華貿易赤字卻增長了. 中國隻是生產了過多的美國人需要購買的從玩具到電腦的基本消費產品. 鑒於此，要解決雙方的不平衡，需要做出比貨幣進展更多的事情. 雙方經濟上都要作出重要的結構性改革. 美國必須增加儲存減少消費，而中國需要增加消費減少儲存.
A more expensive yuan can hurt Americans as well. It means heftier price tags on Chinese-made goods on Walmart shelves, taxing American consumers already stretched by unemployment and debt. Nor would a stronger yuan encourage factories and jobs to return to the U.S. from across the Pacific. Yes, yuan appreciation would make many export factories in China less competitive. But those factories would more likely relocate to the many other developing nations — India, Indonesia and so on — where costs are significantly lower than America's.
人民幣價值過高也會損害美國利益. 這意味著在沃爾瑪貨架上中國製造的產品會大幅度漲價，讓飽受失業和債務壓力的美國消費者增加負擔. 人民幣升值也不會鼓勵工廠和工作崗位跨過太平洋回到美國來. 確實，人民幣升值會讓中國出口工廠減少競爭力. 但是這些工廠可能會外遷到許多別的發展中國家: 印度，印尼等等，這些地方的成本比美國低得多.
Still, by strictly controlling the value of its currency, China's signal to the world is: We want to export to you for the good of our own recovery, not yours. That beggar-thy-neighbor agenda encourages others to pursue similar policies. On Sept. 15, Japan intervened in currency markets for the first time in six years to depress the value of a rising yen, hoping to help its exporters compete with those from China and elsewhere. That raises the specter of a round of competitive devaluations — just the kind of mercantilist nightmare that could derail the already shaky recovery from the Great Recession. By maintaining an undervalued yuan, moreover, Beijing is hurting poorer countries. The cheap yuan stunts their export sectors by keeping Chinese manufactured goods competitive vs. rival products from emerging economies with lower costs.
還有，通過嚴格控製其貨幣的價值，中國發給世界的信號是: 我們想出口給你們是為了我們的複蘇，不是為了你們. 這種損人利己的做法會鼓勵其他國家采取類似政策. 9月15日，日本六年來首次幹涉貨幣市場以便貶低正在升值的日元，希望借此來幫助其出口商增加與中國和其他國家的競爭力. 此舉引發了輪番競爭性貶值的幽靈 正如那種惡性營利的噩夢，可以使得複蘇脫軌，這種在大蕭條中的複蘇，本來就極其脆弱.
Most of all, China should reform its yuan policy for its own good. Policymakers fret that a sharp increase in the yuan's value would undercut the nation's export machine and cost valuable jobs. Yet China's past experience with yuan appreciation shows that its exporters can survive, and even thrive, not least because imported components and raw materials cost less. Beijing dreams of the yuan becoming a force in global trade and finance; that will never materialize unless the government loosens its grip. A stronger yuan would also pressure Chinese companies to become more efficient and high tech, which is a major goal of Beijing's. And it would help with the crucial transformation of China's invest-and-export growth engine to one based more on domestic consumption. That would make the economy less reliant on global demand, state spending and debt-driven investment.
A stronger yuan is good for just about everybody. Until Beijing awakes to that reality, China's controversial currency will remain a flash point in the country's relations with the rest of the world and an impediment to global economic progress.
最重要的是，中國應該為了自己的利益改革人民幣政策. 決策人擔心人民幣大幅度升值會減弱國家的出口機器，工作成本上漲. 然而中國過去的人民幣升值經驗顯示，由於進口元件和原材料成本降低，其出口商至少可以生存下去，甚至蓬勃發展. 北京夢想人民幣在全球貿易和金融中成為一個重要力量. 這永遠不會實現除非政府鬆綁. 人民幣升值也會促使中國公司提高效率，轉向高科技，這些都是北京的主要目標. 這也會幫助中國從投資出口的發展引擎轉向到更多建立在內需的發展模式上. 這會使經濟更少依賴全球需求，政府支出和債務驅動下的投資. 人民幣升值對每個人都有好處. 北京在意識到這個現實之前，中國有爭議的貨幣一直會成為中國和世界其他國家關係中的爆炸點，會阻礙全球經濟的進步.請閱讀更多我的博客文章>>>
