大家反駁一下?流感疫苗無效論

Dr. David Brownstein points out in a blog post regarding a new vaccine study, the Fluzone vaccine was nearly 98 percent ineffective during trials and, among the placebo group, less than 4 percent contracted the flu despite not having a vaccine.

http://blog.drbrownstein.com/time-for-a-flu-vaccine-fugetaboutit/

Time For A Flu Vaccine? Fugetaboutit!

The flu and cold season is upon us.  I have already seen numerous patients suffering with upper respiratory illnesses and even weathered my first bout. 

The CDC and the Powers-That-Be would have you believe that you should receive the influenza vaccine on a yearly basis. (1) They claim that the flu vaccine can save thousands of lives.  Of course, I have written to you many times that there is not a single study that has ever supported the claim that the flu vaccine saves any lives.  In fact, the history of the flu vaccine shows clearly that it fails nearly all who take it. 

A recent article in Family Practice News (September 1, 2017, p. 10) was titled, “Inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine safe, effective.”  The article states, “An intramuscular inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine reduced the risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza by up to 69% in previously unvaccinated children aged 6-35 months in a large randomized trial,,,reported at the annual meeting of the European Society for Paediartic (sic) Infectious Diseases.”

Wow. I have studied the influenza vaccine for years and I know that there is not one study that has shown the flu vaccine very effective for preventing the flu.  Is this something new? 

I pulled the study and read it. Here’s what I found.

The study included 5,806 healthy 6-35-months-olds.  More than 5,400 were randomized to two doses of the quadrivalent vaccine (Fluzone) or placebo .  The trial was conducted in Europe, Asia, South America and Africa between March 2014 and September 2016.  The incidence of any laboratory-confirmed strain of influenza illness during the period from 14 days post-vaccination to the end of the flu season was 1.01% in the Fluzone group and 3.28% in those who received the placebo. 

How did they get the 69% efficacy rate?  They used the relative risk statistical analysis by simply dividing 1.01 into 3.28.  When I lecture to health care professionals about statistics, I tell them that the relative risk analysis is used by the Big Pharma Cartel to make a poorly performing drug or therapy look better than it actually is.   Relative risk analysis should never be used when making clinical decisions about whether to prescribe a drug or therapy.  Sadly, most doctors and other health care professionals have no knowledge about how to properly review a medical study because they do not understand statistics. 

The more accurate way to determine the effectiveness of the flu vaccine in this study (and all other studies as well) is to use the absolute risk difference.  In the Fluzone study, the absolute risk difference between the Fluzone and the placebo group was 2.27% (3.28%-1.01%). That means that Fluzone was nearly 98% ineffective in preventing the flu as there was only a 2.27% benefit received for those who were vaccinated. In other words, this study showed that injecting Fluzone failed nearly 98%–they received no protection from the flu.

Folks, this is another study showing a flu vaccine failing the vast majority who receive it.  This study is consistent with other flu vaccine studies.  Why would anyone prescribe–much less take–a therapy that fails nearly 98% who receive it?

Flu season is approaching. 

Should you get a flu vaccine that fails the vast majority–98%–of the time? 

Fuggetaboutit!

1)     http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/885567?src=WNL_infoc_170924_MSCPEDIT_TEMP2&uac=83217PG&impID=1439801&faf=1 

所有跟帖: 

把3.28%的risk 降到1%, 有效率當然是69%. 比較的是相對Risk, 這是基本統計概念,不光醫藥這樣算 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (141 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:00:07

誤導就是用的這種手法。百萬分之一和百萬分之二的差別是一倍,可是都是小概率事件,臨床根本就沒有意義。 -薛成- 給 薛成 發送悄悄話 薛成 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:10:14

那要看sample size和statistical power. 相對Attack rate 來說,如果Sample size -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (257 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:23:10

NNT is 44 -虎嗅薔薇- 給 虎嗅薔薇 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:33:23

NNT在這裏,好象和lz說的沒有太大關係 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:11:44

3%得了流感,是不是可以說我隻有3%的可能性得流感? -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:33:36

嗯,如果你在那個臨床代表的人群裏,可以這樣估算。但這種統計是隨地區,場合,年齡等變的 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (388 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 08:57:04

對風險的估算不隻能看發病率,也要看病情的嚴重性和後果。NNT是無法顯示受益人的受益程度的。 -虎嗅薔薇- 給 虎嗅薔薇 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:08:19

是這樣 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:12:43

不打的話,您得流感的幾率是多少? -Gbdjw- 給 Gbdjw 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:05:55

得流感的幾率是3%。得流感死亡的幾率是百萬分之4.5。看下麵的數據。 -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:38:01

自己防範。 -Gbdjw- 給 Gbdjw 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:18:26

你可以覺得臨床沒意義,但差別一倍是事實。把這說成98%無效,那才叫誤導。 -davidhu1999- 給 davidhu1999 發送悄悄話 davidhu1999 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 11:19:35

不管有效無效從不打流感疫苗,幾乎沒得過流感 -夏陽- 給 夏陽 發送悄悄話 夏陽 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:08:42

我也是!也沒看見身邊的人打或提這事,好像生活在不同的世界。 -lawattaction- 給 lawattaction 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:35:40

我和兒子也從來沒打過。婆婆每年打,她年歲大了,又住老年公寓,屬於“高危”,應該打。 -Gbdjw- 給 Gbdjw 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:42:16

美國流感是會死人的,所以哪怕降低一點兒風險也是重要的 -dudaan- 給 dudaan 發送悄悄話 dudaan 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:10:48

+1, 特別是高風險人群 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:13:26

這裏是CDC的死亡數據:3%的可能性得流感,其中0.4%會死亡,萬分之1.5的死亡率,CDC強迫每個人打疫苗。對吧? -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (622 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:18:39

推薦和強迫還是不一樣的。 -虎嗅薔薇- 給 虎嗅薔薇 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:21:22

某些工作是強製性的。 -dudaan- 給 dudaan 發送悄悄話 dudaan 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:43:19

是的,比如醫院醫護人員。因為他們接觸的多為高危人群,如得流感,會害病人 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:54:14

確實如此。 -虎嗅薔薇- 給 虎嗅薔薇 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:30:07

I don't think it is mandatory for every one getting a flu shot. -shangxin_na- 給 shangxin_na 發送悄悄話 shangxin_na 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:21:23

CDC強迫??? 最多建議一下,自己的身體自己負責,愛冒險是自己的事 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:22:42

CDC的"建議“,到了臨床就是很強烈的marketing push,”建議“很容易變味。 -Gbdjw- 給 Gbdjw 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:38:47

CDC的mission是public health. 美國每年有數萬人死於流感相關疫病,直接治病費用>$10B -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (158 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:50:43

數據的出處,please, 疫苗的收入是多少? -Gbdjw- 給 Gbdjw 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:52:57

這個一搜就出,到處是數據。流感疫苗被醫藥公司稱為commodity product, 因為利潤很低 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (44 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:56:42

我去體檢,我的家庭醫生硬給我打一針,說不打不行。 -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:05:18

去告他:) -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:23:27

這個就是家醫的不對了怎麽能強製執行呢。我家醫建議打的疫苗多了,都被我婉拒了 -夏陽- 給 夏陽 發送悄悄話 夏陽 的博客首頁 (59 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:30:09

這篇文章說CDC在說謊,實際流感致死率是上麵萬分之1.5數據的3%。 真的是百萬分之1的水平也。CDC是不是有病啊? -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (471 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:34:57

這篇才是說謊 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:52:31

批駁一下唄,別幹喊口號。 -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 09:59:08

沒什麽好批的呀,那個數據沒有任何出處,信口而來。你知道CDC是如何運作收集數據的嗎? -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:03:09

原來BMJ是本爛雜誌,盡發爛文章。嗬嗬。 -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:07:57

老實講,我說的是你的結論。文章說的很清楚流感直接造成死亡隻有幾百到幾千,但會有幾萬人 -GoGym- 給 GoGym 發送悄悄話 (233 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:15:01

文章說的是CDC混淆概念,用流感引發症肺炎擴大死亡數據嚇人。肺炎由流感引發不到5%。 -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:42:57

BMJ是本好期刊,百家爭鳴,不拘一格。老百姓講話:是騾是馬,拉出來溜溜 -fuz- 給 fuz 發送悄悄話 fuz 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 10:23:48

把這結果說成是“was nearly 98% ineffective”這是明擺著的誤導。有這個在,其他的就不用說了。 -davidhu1999- 給 davidhu1999 發送悄悄話 davidhu1999 的博客首頁 (290 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 11:17:37

98%的人打與不打都不會得流感,你說這不是 ineffective,那是什麽?你給個科學準確的詞唄。 -萬得福- 給 萬得福 發送悄悄話 萬得福 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 11:52:33

因為正常人對這種小概率事件描述時,不會用這種方式。就這麽簡單。 -davidhu1999- 給 davidhu1999 發送悄悄話 davidhu1999 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/16/2017 postreply 14:06:05

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