njrookie's random thoughts
A collection of my posts on investment, trading, and life...
博文
(2024-02-26 15:51:46)
Shortenedweeksaw:1firsttwodaysmarketpullingback,especiallyNQ,inanticipationofNVDAearning.2NVDAreportedfantasticresultsaftermarketcloseonWeds(2/21)andchangedthemarkettone;3MarketralliedhugeonThur(NQ3%andES2%)andconsolidatedalittlebitonFriday.4lightonmacronews(THclaimonthewarm/hotside)andlotsoffedtalkwalkingbackcutsInterestingnote:bondralliedonFridaydespiteequitystrengthintheweek,abitpuzzlinggiventh...[閱讀全文]
(2024-02-19 18:09:02)
Abusymacroweekthatcanpotentiallychangeequitymarketdirection:1HotCPIonTuesdayandequity+bondbothsoldoffsignificantly2ColdRetailonTHsawrecovery3HotPPIputnailinthecoffinforPCEon2/29.Inflationseemstohavebottomed.4OPEXdidnotdissappointandSPXandNDXbothclosedaroundLOD.Bondsatsupport.5Dollarstrongeragainstothercurrencyandgldduetoyldspike.SOFRnowimpliesonly90bpsofcutfor2024.=================nextweek(2/20-2/...[閱讀全文]
(2024-02-14 01:01:56)
Anuneventualweek:
1nowweareoutofblackoutwindows,lotsofFedtalksreinforcingJ-Pow'spressconferenceandCBS60Minutesinterviewof"needingmoredata"beforecuttingrateandbasecaseforMarchisnocut;
2SuperhotJanNFPonFriday2/2(Dec23alsorevisedupsignificantly)isthefinalnailonthecoffintoeliminateMarchcut
3Continueddivergenceinequityandfixedincomemarket-equitycarriedbyMagAIzealousy,whichbon...[閱讀全文]
(2024-02-04 15:40:05)
Veryeventfulweeks:1Monday3PMinitialQRAfigureof$202Bisareliefforstockandbondmarket,anddollarsoldoffabitrelativetoothercurrenciesandgoldbecauseofit(netnewborrowingnotasbigasexpected);2TuesdayJOLTsnumberonthehotsideandmarketreactionismild;3Weds0830QREcompositionturnedouttobenotabigdeal.Treasuryincreasedissuancemostlyonthebellyofyieldcurve(moreonthislater);4WedsNYCBissuemoreisolated.SOFRinitallyrallie...[閱讀全文]
(2024-01-28 22:16:40)
Aratheruneventualweek: 1GDPat3.3%isstrongandGDPpriceindexat1.5%aresoft-landingtypestat; 2PCEonFridaylowbutasexpectedafterCPIandPPIinpreviousweek; 3GoodearningsfromNetflexandIBM;butbadonesfromIntelandTsla.QQQfinallyunder-performedSPYthisweek. 4Fixedincomemarketalsotradinginnarrowrange(blackoutwindowandnoFedtalk).Reactionstomacronewshavebeenmildthisweek,pointingtothingsarepricedinalr...[閱讀全文]
(2024-01-21 10:44:13)
ShortenedOPEXweekhastwodistinctphasesthispastweek: 1Equityandfixedincomemarketweaknessforthefirsttwodays; 2Equitymarketstrengthinthelasttwodaysoftheweekwhilebondmktwasweak. 3Dollarhasbeenstrong,consistentwithinterestratemovinghigher.GoldandBitcoinweakforthesamereason: =================MacroEventsLastWeek================== OnTuesday,11AMWallerspeechwalkedbackon202...[閱讀全文]
(2024-01-13 09:30:08)
Afteraweekstartforthenewyear,thesecondweeksawequityrecoveringlostgroundandmakinganewhighYTD: 1marketstartedtheweekstrongoutofgatewithleadshipfromtech.Tworeasonsseemtobefloatingaround:DallasFedLorieLoganspokeonSaturdaywhichmentionedFedshouldbeconcernedaboutrapidRRPdrawdownandstarttothinkaboutslowingdownQT.BasedonLL'sspeeach,BofAteampredictedFedwill(a)startcuttingrate,AND(b)starttaperingQ...[閱讀全文]
(2024-01-05 14:18:42)
Aninterestingstartoftheyear: 1SP500equitymarketsoldoffbyabout1.5%andtechsectorsoldoffbytwiceasmuch; 2yieldwentupacrosstheyieldcurve,andlongbond(TLT)soldoffbysimilar%asequity(SPY); 3USDstrengthedagainstothercurrencies.GLDdownatinybit. Threedominatingthemesthisweekimhv: 1delayedprofit-taking(notsellingwinnersuntil2024kickedin)todelaypayingcapgaintaxforafullyr;thisisespecia...[閱讀全文]
(2023-12-29 15:54:16)
2022年年底的小結在這： https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/1670999.html 去年年底關於2023的幾個預測大多都錯了。3月Fed因為銀行問題還是放水。11月開始Treasury開始manipulatedurationfornewissurance（effectivelyQE；TreasuryisnowthenewFed）。 Adifficultyearformarketneutraltraders，asIhavemainatianedabearishbaisthroughouttheyear.家底的一半拿來做trading，一般是幾天到幾周就清倉換倉。YTD大概30%回報。...[閱讀全文]
(2022-12-30 17:55:22)
今天雖然還不是2022最後一天，但是股市已經關市了。賬號金額也就確定了。去年的總結在這裏：
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/archive/2021/tzlc/1551715.html
去年對下麵的展望，ie"最後叮囑"今天讀起來，還不算離譜的：
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機會是等來的。美國利率處於一個30年的下降cycle，從10+%到了1%。這導致了所有assetprice都被帶動inflated。所謂的assetpriceinflation。TINA[閱讀全文]
