澤西 Macro 解盤 - 2024 Week 7 （02/12-02/16）

 

A busy macro week that can potentially change equity market direction:

1 Hot CPI on Tuesday and equity + bond both sold off significantly

2 Cold Retail on TH saw recovery

3 Hot PPI put nail in the coffin for PCE on 2/29. Inflation seems to have bottomed.

4 OPEX did not dissappoint and SPX and NDX both closed around LOD. Bonds at support.

5 Dollar stronger against other currency and gld due to yld spike. SOFR now implies only 90 bps of cut for 2024.

 

================= next week (2/20-2/23)===============

Not much macro on calendar. Only Weds 2/21 FOMC Minutes.

All eyes on NVDA ER on 2/21. 

SMCI sold off 20% from peak. Now OPEX and ER season mostly behind us, and rate market screaming higher, will equity market finally catch down to bond?