澤西 Macro 解盤 - 2024 Week 4 (01/22-01/26)

 

A rather uneventual week:

1 GDP at 3.3% is strong and GDP price index at 1.5% are soft-landing type stat;

2 PCE on Friday low but as expected after CPI and PPI in previous week;

3 Good earnings from Netflex and IBM; but bad ones from Intel and Tsla. QQQ finally under-performed SPY this week.

4 Fixed income market also trading in narrow range (blackout window and no Fed talk). Reactions to macro news have been mild this week, pointing to things are priced in already. All eyes on Fed and Treasury and NFP next week.

 

=============== Next week ================

Market will get busy next week:

1 FOMC on Weds (2PM decision and 230 Press) - we will get clarify on timing of rate cuts and QT tapering; My bet is Fed will rule out March hike (right now it is 50-50) and keep the rest data dependent; no tapering until H2 of 2024.

2 Monday and Weds Treasury QRA announcements; coupon bond supply remains massive for domestic market to absorb. Will Treasury still try to play the role of Fed?

3 Friday NFP - Job market likely remains strong

4 Big tech titans releasing earnings. AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / META. 65% of SPX companies should have reported after next week. 

5 EOM rebalancing favors bond instead of equity. The January seasonal flow into equity seems to be drying up finally.