不要賭報表 - DO NOT BET ON EARNINGS

原來在這裏

Recently due to the booming of AI, the daring of AI and the wall street Nvidia $NVDA had crazy good earning reports in last year or two (20 months to be exact, if we look at the stock chart from Jan 1st, 2023).

And I recall recently their every quarter's earning report is a confirmation of both the excitement of Nvidia and Gen-AI' fans as well as the company unstoppable momentum in the space. Personally I feel Nvidia is the only drug dealer in the AI chip space. And a few days ago, I heard the word "Nvidia watch party".

And (behind paywall, BI, Business Insider) Nvidia Earnings Watch Party at Bar Is Latest Sign of AI Hype - this title itself says something.

Also (behind paywall, WSJ, but you can listen to the article without pay) ‘Nvidia Day’ Inspires Watch Parties and Memes, but the Fanfare Doesn’t Last

Of course this excitement is on display at Chinese stock forums, Chinese YouTubers, and so on.

Mike 是麥克 - 8月25日 美股實盤分享 下周賭一把 ｜英偉達股票｜美股操作分享 || I was vigilant of this kind of pump due to my experience. But I don't know if there are others buy into those of BS (bull shit).

一畝三分地 - there are many discussions on NVDA and some are quite misleading.

Keep in mind for those guys, and many other creators, media people (think Jim Cramer of Mad Money) included, they don't make money from actually betting on earnings. They make money from eyeballs.

Verdict

I had 12 shares a day or 2 before the $NVDA earnings this time. I never traded much NVDA in the past. And this time I decided just have a bit fun - I didn't go to the "watch party" per say, or the Twitter (X) space dedicated to NVDA earnings. But I did listen to the earning call, as well as Jensen's interview with Bloomberg right after the earnings call. In the recent past Jensen has went on to Jim Cramer's CNBC Mad Money a few times, both after earning calls, or during other occasions. Don't know why this time he went to CNBC's rival Bloomberg.

PS: betting on earnings is essentially just like flip a coin. Because we as outsiders don't really have any edge trying to figure out how a company is doing in a particular quarter.

Also you can read more about "earning report" that I wrote in the past.