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凱利·麥克帕蘭：賈斯汀·特魯多幼稚的電動汽車計劃將鑰匙拱手讓給了中國
北京利用燃煤發電生產的電動汽車充斥全球，無助於應對氣候變化
凱利·麥克帕蘭 2023年12月28日
The American ambassador to Canada is pushing back on Ottawa's travel advice, saying his country doesn't search phones at the border.
2023年4月19日，人們在上海國際汽車工業展覽會上參觀中國電動汽車巨頭小鵬汽車的展位。凱利·麥克帕蘭寫道，加拿大自由黨政府強製要求到2035年，加拿大所有銷售的汽車都必須是電動汽車，但支持這一舉措的基礎設施卻十分匱乏。
首先，我要明確一點，我並不反對電動汽車。且不說拯救地球，誰願意在寒冬臘月把車停在肮髒的加油站前，冒著體溫過低的風險，隻為支付石油公司為再加滿一箱“髒”燃料索要的贖金呢？
電力固然好，但說真的。加拿大是最新一個為未來設定明確日期的國家。在我們看來，是2035年，屆時耗油量大的汽車將徹底消失。你無需承受任何考驗！這將是一個新的曙光，一個電動汽車 (EV) 的世界。無論你準備好了沒有，我們都來了。
或者呢？加拿大控製著零家大型汽車製造商。我們生產和購買來自其他國家公司的汽車。如果他們不能解決電動汽車市場仍然麵臨的諸多問題，未來的加拿大政府將無能為力。
在汽車巨頭中，通用汽車一直是最堅定的電動汽車信徒之一。對於首席執行官瑪麗·博拉來說，“EV” 就是“福音”的首字母。不要讓懷疑阻礙你，隻需堅定信念。
然而，這座汽車城如今卻陷入困境。通用汽車已放棄到2024年中期銷售40萬輛電動汽車的承諾。它還放棄了與本田汽車聯合開發更經濟實惠電動汽車的價值50億美元的計劃。它推遲了密歇根工廠電動卡車的投產，並收購了其2000家別克經銷店的一半，因為它們拒絕為實現全電動汽車的未來做出必要的投資。通用汽車暫停了其自動駕駛汽車Cruise部門的運營，並撥出100億美元用於股票回購，以安撫緊張的投資者。
與此同時，電動汽車銷量正在增長，但速度並未達到預期，導致大量未售出的汽車積壓。福特要麽削減要麽推遲了120億美元的電動汽車投資，並縮減了計劃在密歇根州建設的電池廠的規模。《今日美國》報道稱，由於價格高企、需求放緩、續航裏程焦慮、充電站匱乏，以及消費者越來越意識到電動汽車維修成本可能遠高於化石燃料汽車，電動汽車庫存較去年同期增長了506%。
美國的報告顯示，電動汽車需求主要集中在少數地區，通常是城市地區的富裕人群。據CarGurus Inc.稱，盡管由於供應過剩導致價格下降，但新電動汽車的平均成本仍比內燃機汽車高出28%，停產時間也比一年前延長了24%。即使是市場絕對領導者特斯拉，也認為有必要大幅降價，以保持其獲得政府補貼的資格。
汽車巨頭可以縮減開支，而小公司卻遭受重創。 《華爾街日報》對電動汽車初創企業的分析發現，在2020年至2022年期間成立的43家電動汽車初創企業中，已有5家破產，至少18家公司可能在2024年底前耗盡資金。其餘一些公司則專注於高端市場，而這些市場的價格遠超大多數買家的承受能力。
不知何故，賈斯汀·特魯多領導的自由黨選擇在此時公布渥太華新的電動汽車可用性標準，規定自2035年起，在加拿大銷售的所有新車都必須是電動汽車。目前，隻有大約十分之一的加拿大人擁有電動汽車，這表明人們對電動汽車的興趣正在減弱。但這並沒有阻止環境部長史蒂文·吉爾博特堅持認為，如果有人生產電動汽車，就會有買家湧入。誰知道呢，他也許是對的，但如果是這樣，那麽生產這些汽車及其電池的工廠很有可能來自中國或由中國控製的某個地方。
歐盟對北京方麵進軍其至關重要的汽車市場的決心深感擔憂，正對“巨額國家補貼”展開調查，稱其讓中國車型獲得了不公平的優勢。隨後可能會加征關稅。特朗普政府時期，美國對中國汽車征收了27.5%的關稅，拜登總統任期內，美國正考慮提高這一稅率。中國上汽集團（與通用汽車合資）生產的一款迷你車型在中國的售價約為5500加元，約為大多數歐盟電動汽車價格的四分之一。在英國——中國最大的海外市場——最便宜的替代電動汽車售價約為13000加元，最高時速為45公裏/小時。
Nada 最便宜的電動汽車零售價約為 4 萬加元。
除了廉價勞動力和製造能力外，中國還控製著生產電動汽車電池所必需的鈷和稀土礦物。
全球約 70% 的鈷礦產自剛果民主共和國，該國是全球最貧窮、最腐敗、最不穩定的國家之一。在剛果 19 家鈷礦企業中，有 15 家全部或部分由中國企業擁有。由於環境惡劣，采礦作業有時需要軍事保護。北京努力維護和擴大其主導地位，最近禁止出口稀土礦物加工技術，而稀土礦物是其主導的另一種重要電池原料。
中國試圖利用技術和商業渠道來獲得對民主國家和西方競爭對手的影響力，這已不是什麽秘密。在汽車行業的主導地位將極大地推進這一目標。CSIS 2023 年的一份報告警告稱，中國在全球電動汽車市場的增長對歐洲和北美的就業和工業競爭力構成了威脅。報告指出，“增加對中國的依賴會帶來風險”，因為中國曾利用其經濟影響力“懲罰那些挑戰其在國際事務中地位的國家”。此外，中國是迄今為止世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國，並且仍在燃燒大量煤炭。據數據機構全球能源監測組織 (Global Energy Monitor) 估計，中國正在建設的新建燃煤電廠數量是世界其他國家總和的六倍。
全球範圍內大量使用燃煤生產的電動汽車幾乎無助於應對氣候變化。或許這種情況不會發生——或許歐洲、美國甚至加拿大能夠找到新的重要礦產資源，並開發出開采這些礦產的手段和技術（更不用說環保審批了），從而能夠與中國龐大的低收入人口進行競爭。或許可以降低價格，讓低收入人群在2035年後也能買得起汽車。或許有人能想出辦法，讓數百萬住在高層公寓樓和公寓樓裏的居民無需建造單獨的發電站就能為他們的汽車供電。
無論如何，特魯多政府表示，這必須在12年內實現。如果情況並非如此，我們也沒有已知的B計劃。新的曙光是否應該就在懸崖邊上？自由黨告訴我們，隻要對信仰保持信心就好。
Kelly McParland: Justin Trudeau's naive EV plan hands the keys to China
Flooding the world with electric vehicles that Beijing manufactures using power produced by burning coal hardly helps to fight climate change
By Kelly McParland Dec 28, 2023, The American ambassador to Canada is pushing back on Ottawa's travel advice, saying his country doesn't search phones at the border.
People visit a booth for the Chinese EV giant XPeng at the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition on April 19, 2023. Canada's Liberal government is mandating that all cars sold in this country be electric by 2035, but the basic infrastructure to support such a measure is lacking, writes Kelly McParland.
First off, let’s be clear that I have nothing against electric vehicles. Never mind saving the planet, who wants to pull up to a grimy gas pump on a howling winter day and risk hypothermia for the privilege of paying whatever ransom oil companies are demanding for another tankful of “dirty” fuel?
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Or what? Canada controls precisely zero major car manufacturers. We build and buy cars from companies based in other countries. Should they fail to solve the myriad issues still confronting the EV market, a future Canadian government can do nothing about it.
Among auto giants, General Motors has been among the truest of believers. For chief executive Mary Barra, EV constitutes the first two letters in evangelism. Don’t let doubt get in the way, just put your faith in faith.
But there’s trouble in Motor City. GM has backed off a pledge to sell 400,000 electric vehicles by the middle of 2024. It’s also abandoning a US$5-billion joint plan with Honda Motors to develop more affordable EVs. It’s delaying the start of production on electric trucks at a Michigan plant, and bought out half its 2,000 Buick dealerships after they declined to make the investments needed for an all-EV future. GM suspended operations at its self-driving Cruise unit and is diverting US$10 billion to share buybacks to appease nervous investors.
Meanwhile, EV sales are rising, but not at the pace anticipated, resulting in huge backlogs of unsold cars. Ford is either chopping or delaying US$12 billion in EV investments and scaling back a planned battery plant in Michigan. USA Today reported that EV inventories were up 506 per cent from a year ago due to high prices, slowing demand, range anxiety, lack of charging stations and buyers’ growing awareness that EV repair costs can be significantly higher than those for fossil-fuelled cars.
U.S. reports show demand heavily concentrated in a few regions, generally well-off populations in urban areas. According to CarGurus Inc., while prices are falling thanks to excess supply, the average new EV still costs 28 per cent more than an internal-combustion rival, and will sit on the lot 24 per cent longer than a year ago. Even Tesla, the overwhelming market leader, felt the need to slash vehicle prices to keep them eligible for government subsidies.
While the auto giants can retrench, the little guys are getting creamed. A Wall Street Journal analysis of EV startups found that of 43 companies launched between 2020 and 2022, five have gone bust, and at least 18 others are likely to run out of money by the end of 2024. The remainder includes firms strictly focused on the luxury market, well beyond the reach of most buyers.
For reasons left unexplained, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals chose this moment to unveil Ottawa’s new Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, mandating that, as of 2035, all new vehicles sold in Canada must be electric. Only about one Canadian in 10 now owns an electric vehicle, amid signs of waning interest. That didn’t stop Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault from insisting that if someone builds them, buyers will come. Who knows, he may be right, but if so there’s a real chance the factory producing the cars and the batteries that run them will be from a plant located or controlled somewhere in China.
The European Union is so worried about Beijing’s determined push into its vital car market that it’s launching a probe into “huge state subsidies” it says give Chinese models an unfair advantage. Tariffs may follow. The U.S. imposed a 27.5 per cent levy under the Trump administration and is considering an increase under President Joe Biden. China’s SAIC Motors makes a mini-model (in a joint venture with GM) that sells in China for about C$5,500, about a quarter the cost of most EU electrics. The cheapest alternative EV in Britain, China’s largest foreign market, costs about C$13,000 with a top speed of 45 km/h. Canada’s cheapest EVs retail around C$40,000.
In addition to cheap labour and manufacturing capacity, China controls much of the cobalt and rare earth minerals essential to producing EV batteries.
About 70 per cent of the world’s cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the globe’s poorest, most corrupt and unstable countries. Of 19 Congo cobalt operations, 15 are owned in whole or part by Chinese powers. So harsh are conditions that mining operations sometimes require military protection. Beijing works hard to protect and expand its dominance, recently imposing a ban on the export of technology for processing rare earth minerals, another vital battery input it dominates.
It’s no secret that China aims to use technology and commercial access to gain leverage over democracies and western competitors. Dominance in the auto industry would greatly further that goal. A 2023 CSIS report warned that gains for China in global EV markets represents a threat to jobs and industrial competitiveness in Europe and North America. “Increased dependencies on China carry risks,” it noted, given China’s record of using its economic clout “to punish countries that challenge its position in international affairs.” As well, China is by far the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter and continues to burn vast amounts of coal. Data group Global Energy Monitor calculates China is building six times as many new coal plants as the rest of the world combined.
Flooding the world with EVs produced by burning coal hardly helps fight climate change. Maybe it won’t happen — maybe Europe or the U.S. or even Canada will find new sources of vital minerals and develop the means and technology (not to mention environmental approval) to extract them competitively with China’s vast low-wage population. Maybe prices can be lowered so people with lower incomes can also buy vehicles after 2035. Maybe someone will sort out how millions of people in high-rise condo towers and apartment blocks will all be able to power their vehicles without individual power stations.
In any case, the Trudeau government says it must happen within 12 years. If it doesn’t, we have no known Plan B. And should the new dawn prove to be beckoning just beyond a cliff? The Liberals are telling us to just have faith in faith.
