Jeffrey Sachs 關稅是謊言，赤字是你們自己的錯

Jeffrey Sachs 關稅是謊言，赤字是你們自己的錯

“關稅是謊言，赤字是你們自己的錯”，傑弗裏·薩克斯在聯合國抨擊特朗普的貿易戰

Times Now 2025年5月2日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnFMnUdnbk4

美國經濟學家傑弗裏·薩克斯在聯合國安理會“阿裏亞方案”會議上對華盛頓的外交政策進行了嚴厲批評，指責特朗普政府“經濟霸淩”，違反國際法，破壞多邊主義。薩克斯引用了他自己的研究，該研究顯示美國在193個聯合國成員國中對多邊合作的支持程度墊底，他譴責單邊關稅、強製性製裁和美元武器化嚴重損害了全球穩定。“這些措施不僅是非法的，”薩克斯警告說，“它們還會提高死亡率，威脅全球和平。”他呼籲回歸《聯合國憲章》原則，並警告稱，美國當前的行動已使世界“距離核午夜僅剩89秒”。

非常感謝您在這個極其重要的時刻召開這次區域公式會議，討論一個至關重要的議題。嗯，這個至關重要的議題是，我們如何才能保護、維護和擴展真正的多邊主義，也就是，根據原則、道德、國際法和聯合國憲章的標準進行治理。我們當然生活在一個多極化的世界，權力廣泛分散在世界各地。但正如大使先生您所說的，由於國際體係的濫用，我們並沒有完全進入一個多邊世界。去年我發表了一項研究，名為“各國支持聯合國多邊主義指數”。這項研究的目的是衡量各國與聯合國多邊主義的距離。我很遺憾地說，即使在去年美國采取新一輪單邊關稅措施之前，在193個聯合國成員國中，美國在世界排名中也排在倒數第193位，成為最不符合聯合國多邊主義的國家。這是因為美國采取了許多聯合國體係之外的措施。違反了基於聯合國的體係，背棄了對聯合國的承諾，美國在大多數時候，或者更準確地說，在聯合國大會上，投票反對世界上大多數國家。你們召開這次會議，部分原因是美國單邊製裁引發的緊急危機。這些製裁被稱為互惠製裁、互惠關稅，但與關稅互惠無關。讓我簡單解釋一下，特朗普總統聲稱美國貿易逆差是由其他國家欺負美國造成的。如果美國與一百多個國家存在貿易逆差，那麽這在某種程度上是其他國家的錯。我教授國際宏觀經濟學44年了，我可以毫不含糊地說，貿易逆差並不意味著其他國家在利用美國。
它隻是衡量美國支出超過收入的指標。換句話說，它的總消費和投資大於國民生產總值。這是一個統計恒等式。經常賬戶餘額是美國與世界其他國家商品和服務淨貿易的綜合指標。
這個赤字等於美國支出超過美國收入的差額。那麽，為什麽美國的支出超過收入呢？原因在於美國的儲蓄率非常低。與中國不同，中國人民、企業和政府都很節儉。在美國，私營部門和公共部門的儲蓄率都很低。但最值得注意的是，美國聯邦政府的赤字高達每年2萬億美元的巨額赤字，占其國內生產總值的6%到7%。這會導致每年1萬億美元的經常賬戶赤字。因此，美國政府的經濟主張完全不能為這些關稅措施提供依據。關稅旨在消除貿易逆差，而這並非中國合作夥伴的錯，而是由美國巨額預算赤字和低私人儲蓄造成的。因此，美國將自己的經濟政策歸咎於其他國家。這一點非常重要。這些單邊關稅毫無道理。
它們之間毫無關聯。對世界其他國家不公平的做法，以某種方式欺騙了美國。現在，美國政府的主張從未經過國會審查，也從未公開辯論過。它是作為一項緊急法令頒布的，呃，呃，在我看來，這不僅違反了多邊主義，也違反了美國憲法。美國憲法第一條第八款明確賦予美國國會征收關稅的權力，而不是美國總統。美國已經舉行了多場法庭聽證會，質疑美國政府單方麵征收關稅的合法性。我發現沒有美國政府在經濟上沒有任何正當理由為所采取的行動辯解，全球金融市場也開始陷入恐慌，迫使政府在大多數情況下扭轉其行動。不幸的是，包括美國和中國在內的世界經濟正在持續受到損害。現在我想強調的是，這種單邊主義有多種形式，關稅隻是其中之一。大使先生，如果您允許我，我想簡要列舉一下。美國是除關稅之外，使用強製性經濟措施最多的國家，包括對不同公司、對海外個人、對海外銀行部門實施製裁。因此，美國是迄今為止使用單邊強製性措施最多的國家。聯合國大會一再宣布，此類單邊強製性措施違反《聯合國憲章》，非法。這些措施對世界各地的人口造成了巨大傷害，剝奪了人們獲得基本醫療保健的機會，以及食物和清潔水等最基本需求。它們提高了死亡率。換句話說，這些措施不僅是非法的，而且對健康和福祉極其有害，尤其是對極度貧困的人群。此外，美國沒收其他國家的資產，就像它對俄羅斯聯邦、委內瑞拉、伊朗、朝鮮、阿富汗和其他國家所做的那樣。它隻是凍結了與其外交政策存在分歧的其他國家的美元資產。這是對美元在國際結算中特權的濫用，因為美國將其用作武器，而不是支付結算係統，在美國的推動下，這種情況已經變得非常嚴重。歐洲也采取了這些單方麵的強製性措施，包括沒收俄羅斯3000億美元的外匯儲備，在我看來，這公然違反??國際法，違背世界利益。不幸的是，美國參與了許多秘密的政權更迭行動。這意味著它不僅參與經濟欺淩，而且實際上還試圖或實際推翻政府。這些現在已經被非常嚴肅的研究記錄下來，一項出色的研究統計了1947年至1989年期間的64次秘密政權更迭行動。這是一個令人震驚的事實。任何國家都不應該推翻政府。不幸的是，美國也在世界各地進行軍備競賽。沒有任何一個國家像美國這樣，在80個國家擁有750個海外軍事基地。我認為這本身就對美國安全極為不利，也對世界和平構成威脅。但它也導致了世界各地的軍備競賽。我很遺憾地說，美國也在阻礙聯合國係統的工作。談到貿易，建立基於規則的貿易體係的關鍵是世界貿易組織，美國應該為幫助其成立而感到自豪。然而，自2019年以來，美國一直阻撓世貿組織上訴機構的運作，導致世貿組織無法進行爭端解決，因為上訴機構沒有足夠的法官，因為美國故意阻撓世貿組織職位的填補，以便這個基於規則的關鍵機構能夠履行職責。最後，我想補充一點，美國單方麵背離了具有全球意義的基本條約，包括《反彈道導彈條約》。 2002年，或許是美俄關係史上最大的動蕩。因為《反彈道導彈條約》（ABM條約）是美俄關係穩定的廢紙簍。2019年，美國單方麵退出了《中導條約》。在特朗普總統的領導下，美國再次退出了《巴黎氣候協定》，而該協定是聯合國氣候變化框架公約下一項對世界安全至關重要的全球性協議。這一切都非常可怕。換句話說，多邊主義的破裂。美國這樣一個強大、具有影響力的國家，卻是聯合國所有成員國中最不多邊的國家，這給世界帶來了重大風險和挑戰。我隻想簡要提一下，然後作為結束。首先是破裂的經濟關係。經濟貿易。國際貿易不是單贏的，而是一個雙贏的。當美國和中國進行貿易時，雙方都會受益。當貿易關係因單邊關稅而破裂時，雙方都會受損。這非常令人難過。當然，當世貿組織（WTO）破裂時，損失最大的是最貧窮的國家。基於規則的體係麵臨這樣的危機。第二個代價當然是軍備競賽。全世界現在每年在軍備上花費數萬億美元，但願這些武器不會被使用。我們當然不能使用這些武器，但用於這些武器的資源浪費令人震驚。包括歐洲在內的許多國家正在削減其軍備研發開支。用軍事援助預算來建立軍事預算。這對於一個和平的世界來說是不可接受的，也絕不會以任何方式保障我們的安全。第三個代價當然是公開衝突。這些單邊措施導致戰爭，而我們之所以爆發幾場戰爭，正是因為各國不遵守國際體係。例如，去年國際法院裁定，以色列違反國際法，將領土延伸至1967年6月4日的邊界之外。由於這一違反行為，聯合國大會將於6月就兩國解決方案的實施舉行高級別會議。以色列不幸也是世界上多邊主義排名最低的國家之一。因此，我們因此引發了公開衝突。我們還麵臨著嚴峻的現實，我們曾多次瀕臨核對抗。原子科學家公報告訴世界，我們距離午夜還有大約89秒。核對抗即將到來。另一個風險來自單邊主義和霸淩。當然，當我們麵臨衝突、霸淩和單邊主義時，我們就無法獲得我們迫切需要的解決方案，而這些解決方案對於解決氣候變化、發展綠色經濟、建設可持續世界的未來以及實現可持續發展目標至關重要，正如大使先生所提到的。因此，偏離一個至關重要的議程是所有這一切的顯著代價之一。我們都在遭受單邊主義的困擾。我們都在遭受霸淩。這是一個雙輸的局麵。80年前，我們的先輩們創造了聯合國，建立了一個國際法體係，一個受到國際尊重的體係。我們有責任推動它。我感謝你們今天召開的非常重要的會議，因為我們必須扭轉單邊主義，積極推動多邊主義，並在每一個關鍵時刻遵守《聯合國憲章》，因為這是我們安全、生存和發展的關鍵。為了我們的可持續發展，非常感謝。

‘Tariffs Are a Lie. The Deficit Is Your Own Fault’, Jeffrey Sachs Rips Into Trump’s Trade War at UN

 

Times Now 2025年5月2日  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnFMnUdnbk4

 

U.S. economist Jeffrey Sachs delivered a scathing critique of Washington’s foreign policy at a UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting, accusing the Trump administration of "economic bullying," violating international law, and undermining multilateralism. Citing his own study ranking the U.S. last among 193 UN member states in support for multilateral cooperation, Sachs condemned unilateral tariffs, coercive sanctions, and the weaponization of the dollar as deeply damaging to global stability. “These measures are not only illegal,” Sachs warned, “they raise mortality rates and threaten global peace.” He urged a return to UN Charter principles, warning that current U.S. actions have brought the world “89 seconds from nuclear midnight.”

 

thank you so much for convening this area formula meeting at an extremely

important time and on a crucial topic Uh the crucial topic is uh how we can

protect preserve and extend true multilateralism that is uh governance

according to principle according to ethics according to international law and according to the standards of the UN charter We are of course in a multi-olar world where

power is widely dispersed across the world But we are not fully in a

multilateral world because of the abuses of the international system as you have

spelled out uh ambassador Last year I published a study uh it's called the index of countries support for UNbased multilateralism The purpose of the study was to measure how close or how far countries are from

alignment with UNbased multilateralism

I am sorry to say that even last year

before this new round of unilateral

tariff measures of the United States of

the 193 UN member states the United

States ranked last 193rd in the world making it the country

least aligned with UN multilateralism

This is because the United States takes

many measures that are outside of the

UNbased system that are in violation of

the UN-based system that walk away from

UN commitments and the United States

votes against most of the world most of

the time or much of the time let me say

to be more precise in the UN General

Assembly You have convened this meeting uh in

part because of the immediate uh crisis

that has occurred because of US unilateral sanctions These were called

reciprocal sanction reciprocal tariffs

but they had nothing to do with reciprocity of tariffs And let me

explain briefly President Trump made the claim

that the US trade deficit is caused by

other countries abusing the United States That

if the US is running a trade deficit as

it does with more than a hundred countries that this is somehow the fault

of those other countries Well I have been teaching international macroeconomics for 44

years and I can say unequivocally that a trade deficit is

not a signal that other countries are

somehow taking advantage of the United

States It is only a measure that the

United States is spending more than it

earns In other words that its total

consumption and investment is greater

than the gross national product That is

a statistical identity The current

account balance which is the comprehensive measure of the net trade

of the United States and goods and

services with the rest of the world That

deficit equals the excess of US spending

over US income Now why does the US spend

more than it uh earns the reason is that

the saving rate in the United States is

very low Unlike China where people and

businesses and government are thrifty in

the United States the saving rates are

low of both the private sector and the

public sector But most notably the US federal government is

running an enormous deficit between 6

and 7% of our gross domestic product $2

trillion of deficit per year And that

spills over into a current account

deficit of $1 trillion per year So the tariff measures are utterly

unjustified by the economic claims of

the US government The tariffs are directed

towards a trade deficit that is not the

fault of China's partners but is the

result of America's large budget

deficits and low private saving And so

the United States is blaming other

countries for its own economic policies And this is extremely

important There is no excuse for these

unilateral tariffs Not remotely are they related to unfair

practices of the rest of the world

somehow cheating the United States Now

the claim of the US government was never

examined by Congress It was never

debated in the public It was made as a

matter of a an emergency decree uh that uh also

in my view not only violates

multilateralism but also the US

constitution where article 1 section 8

of the US constitution absolutely gives the power

of tariffs to the US congress not to the

president of the United States There are

already several court hearings in the

United States challenging the legality

of the US government's unilateral

imposition of tariffs I find no

justification whatsoever economically

for the actions that were taken nor did

the financial markets worldwide which

began to enter into a panic and that

forced the administration in most cases

to reverse what it had done Unfortunately uh there is continuing damage to the

world economy including visav China Now I want to emphasize that this

unilateralism takes many forms The

tariffs is just one And if you'll permit

me uh ambassador I would like to just

list briefly The United States is the

biggest user of coercive economic

measures other than tariffs putting on

sanctions on different companies on

individuals abroad on banking sectors

abroad And so the US is by far the

biggest user of unilateral coercive

measures And the UN General Assembly

repeatedly declares such unilateral

coercive measures to be illegal against

the UN charter And they do enormous harm

to populations all over the world

depriving populations of access to basic

health care to the most basic needs of

food and clean water They raise

mortality rates In other words they are

not only illegal but they are extremely

damaging to the health and well-being

especially of very poor people

The US in addition confiscates the assets of other

countries as it has done with the

Russian Federation with Venezuela with

Iran with North Korea with Afghanistan

and with other countries It simply

freezes the dollar holdings of other

countries with which it has foreign

policy differences And this is an abuse

of the prerogative of the role of the

dollar in international settlements

because it is used by the United States

as a weapon rather than as a payments

settlement system and this has become

very serious under the US uh impetus Uh

Europe too has engaged in these

unilateral coercive measures including

the confiscation of $300 billion dollar

of Russian foreign exchange reserves

which is in my opinion blatantly against

international law and against world

interest The United States unfortunately

engages in many covert regime change

operations Meaning that it engages not

only in economic bullying but in

actually the attempt or the actual

overthrow of governments These have been

now documented in very serious studies

counting by one excellent study 64

covert regime change operations during

the period 1947 to 1989 This is a

staggering fact No country should be

overturning the government of another

country under the UN charter Unfortunately the US is also engaged in

arms buildups all over the world No

other country comes close to having the

US situation of 750 overseas military bases in 80

countries This by itself in my opinion

is highly detrimental to American

security and a threat to the global

peace But it leads to arms buildups all

over the world I'm sad to say that the

United States also is impeding the work

of the UN system When it comes to trade

the key to a rule-based trade system is

the World Trade Organization which the

United States should take pride in

helping to bring into existence And yet

the United States since 2019 has blocked the appellet panel of

the WTO so that dispute settlements

cannot take place now at WTO because the

appelllet body does not have the

requisite judges because the United

States is deliberately blocking the

filling of positions of WTO so that that

crucial rulesbased institution can do

its job And finally I would add that the

United States has unilaterally departed

from fundamental treaties of global

significance including from the

anti-bballistic missile treaty in 2002

which was perhaps the single biggest

destabilization visa v Russia because

the ABM treaty the anti-bballistic

missile treaty was a bull work of

USRussia stability The US unilaterally

abandoned the intermediate nuclear force

treaty in 2019 and the United States is

walking out once again under President

Trump of the Paris climate agreement

which is a crucial global agreement

under the UN framework convention on

climate change for world security This is all quite dire In other

words the break of the multilateralism the fact that the United

States such a powerful country and such

an influential country in the world is

the least multilateral of all of the UN

member states poses major risks and

challenges to the world And I just want

to mention them in brief and then to

close First are the broken economic

relations Economic trade international trade is not a

winlose proposition It is a winwin

proposition When the United States and

China trade both sides benefit When the trade relations are

ruptured by unilateral tariffs both

sides lose This is extremely sad Of

course it's the poorest countries that

lose the most when the WTO rules-based

system faces such a crisis The second

cost of course is the arms race The

world is spending trillions of dollars

per year on armaments right now and god

forbid they should be used We must

not of course use these armaments but

the waste of resources directed at these

armaments is staggering Many countries including in

Europe are cutting their development aid

budget to build their military budget

This is unacceptable for a peaceful

world and it will not satisfy our security in any way

The third cost of course is open

conflict These unilateral measures lead

to war and we have several wars raging

precisely because countries are not

obeying the international system It was

decided by the international court of

justice last year for example that

Israel is violating international law by

extending beyond its borders of the 4th

of June

1967 and the UN General Assembly will

hold a high level session on the

implementation of the two-state solution

in June because of this violation Israel

sad to say is also one of the lowest

ranked countries in the world in

multilateralism So we get open conflict

as a result of this We also have the

dire reality that we have come far too

close to nuclear confrontation on

several occasions And the bulletin of

atomic scientists tells the world that

we are about 89 seconds from midnight on

nuclear confrontation This is another

risk that comes from the unilateralism

and the bullying Of course when we have

conflict when we have bullying when we

have unilateralism we don't gain

solutions that we desperately need for

climate change for the green economy for

the future of a sustainable world for

the sustainable development goals as you

mentioned ambassador And so the

diversion from an absolutely crucial

agenda is one of the telling costs of all of this We are all suffering from unilateralism We all suffer from bullying This is a lose-lose proposition We created 80 years ago Our our forefathers did a wondrous job to create the United Nations to make a system of international law a system of international respect And we have the responsibility to promote it And I thank you for today's very important session because it is extremely important that we reverse from unilateralism and promote actively multilateralism and the UN charter at every turn as the key for our safety for our survival and for our sustainable development Thank you very much。