風蕭蕭_Frank
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中國正在扼殺波音（全）：作為客機製造商和中國商飛的競爭對手
YouTube 《中國商業內幕 2025》4月25日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNZcXNc9yJs
波音和空客構成了全球大部分客機製造商的雙頭壟斷。
然而，盡管波音公司（BA）積壓的訂單需要十多年才能清關，其產品單價超過1億美元，並且是五角大樓第四大軍事承包商，波音公司仍然每個季度虧損數十億美元。
波音公司麵臨著嚴重的供應鏈問題和生產限製，此外，其安全記錄也備受質疑。
中國商飛是波音和空客的強勁競爭對手，近期其主力機型C-919的產量有所提升，C-929寬體飛機的交付時間預計將在2027年。憑借數百架飛機的訂單和強大的供應鏈，業內專家認為商飛是目前被波音蠶食的市場份額的有力競爭者。
在亞洲、非洲和南美洲這些增長最快的民航市場，情況尤其如此。在這些市場，商飛要麽成為航空公司的默認首選，要麽成為可接受的替代方案，因為英航和空客的訂單積壓和生產問題依然存在。
貿易戰和航空業全球關稅豁免的失效或許會短期內提振波音在美國市場的表現，但這將使其飛機在其他地方的價格高得令人望而卻步。中國已指示其航空公司拒絕接收英航的飛機及其零部件。
五角大樓和國會擔心，一旦波音公司破產，其安全、法律和財務問題將使國防部麵臨風險。
盡管波音公司糟糕的管理和工程問題在短期內十分嚴重，但中國切斷波音公司與關鍵供應鏈的聯係才是真正決定該公司走向衰亡的關鍵。
波音公司是中國“軍民兩用”技術和材料的典型買家，這些技術和材料用於民用和軍用領域。中國壟斷了重型稀土磁體及其製造所需的稀土金屬（REM）。這些磁體對客機的航空電子係統至關重要，對先進的軍用係統、高超音速導彈和隱形飛機而言更是至關重要。
中國關閉了所有這些軍民兩用技術的出口市場。由於被切斷了與中國供應鏈的聯係，波音公司和其他五角大樓承包商將無法履行這些價值數十億美元的合同。
資源和鏈接：
彭博社，《誰為航空航天關稅買單？》或許沒人會這麽做 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...
《華爾街日報》：波音、空客即將失去45年的免稅地位 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trum...
波音公司第四季度虧損38億美元，自2019年發生致命空難以來已虧損超過350億美元 https://www.king5.com/article/money/b...
波音公司的危機正在加劇。現在它正在借入數百億美元 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/15/in...
《華爾街日報》，中國對波音公司采取行動，要求航空公司不要向這家美國飛機製造商訂購新飛機 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stoc...
彭博社，隨著貿易戰的擴大，中國下令暫停波音飛機交付 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
彭博社，隨著關稅飆升，中國航空公司推遲波音飛機交付 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
貿易戰動蕩：中國暫停向航空公司交付波音飛機 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tra...
中國商飛計劃提升C919產能，加大對波音和空客的挑戰 https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...
中國商飛將生產75架C919飛機挑戰空客和波音的主導地位 https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/202...
《福布斯》：飛機生產障礙導致訂單積壓創紀錄，機隊老舊 https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwy...
奧緯谘詢：2025-2035 年全球機隊和維護、修理和大修 (MRO) 市場預測 https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-exper...
路透社：文件顯示，越南監管機構提議批準中國商飛的噴氣式飛機 https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...
波音商用飛機市場展望，2024-2043 https://cmo.boeing.com/
《華爾街日報》：波音在特朗普的貿易戰中遭受全方位打擊 https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines...
排名：全球國防預算最高的 15 個國家https://www.visualcapitalist.com/larg...
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早上好，波音公司是美國一家商用客機製造商，同時也是一家主要的國防承包商。波音公司上個季度虧損了38億美元，過去5年虧損超過350億美元，這簡直難以想象。一架客機的價格超過1億美元，而波音公司積壓的訂單已經持續多年。換句話說，波音公司擁有數千架飛機的訂單，價值數百億美元。波音公司與五角大樓簽訂了巨額國防合同。五角大樓的支出超過了其後10個國家的總和，但這家公司仍然虧損。即使在相對景氣的時期，波音公司也經營不善，無法盈利。盡管航空業是雙頭壟斷的，但波音公司目前在該領域唯一真正的競爭對手是空客。但波音的好日子即將結束，雙頭壟斷的局麵也即將結束。comarmac是一家正在快速發展的中國公司。他們最終將接管目前由波音和空客服務的市場，但首先消失的將是波音。這是奧緯谘詢對機隊和 MRO 的預測。航空領域的 MRO 是指維護、修理和大修，因此，這是對全球飛機數量、部件數量和乘客數量的全麵調查和預測。目前，該行業積壓了 17,000 架飛機，創曆史新高。按照目前的生產率，清理這些飛機需要 14 年時間。假設 2019 年沒有人再訂購飛機，訂單積壓時間為 7 年，現在是 14 年，因此航空公司需要延長飛機的飛行時間。飛機正在老化，這意味著更高的燃油成本，也意味著需要進行更多的維護和維修，並延長飛行時間，以彌補飛機數量不足的問題。預計到2035年，每年的飛行小時數將達到1.12億小時，比現在高出39%，目前已創下曆史新高。到2035年，中國的飛機隊規模將再增長40%。這是波音公司的報告。這是一份CMO（商業市場展望）。波音和空客的CMO正在滾動更新，他們的展望是20年後，也就是到2043年。這是波音公司對各地區的預測。我們可以看到，空中交通的增長將主要集中在發展中國家和全球大多數國家，包括南亞、東南亞、非洲、中國和南美洲。
相比之下，北美的年增長率將是南亞和東南亞的一半。
換句話說，亞洲、非洲和南美洲將需要更多的飛機，而波音和空客目前無法交付他們訂購的飛機。至於中國，它被認為是一個更加成熟的市場，但仍在快速增長。交付給中國市場的飛機中，40%將用於替換飛機，60%將用於服務新的航線和市場。這是中國市場的一個獨特之處，中國擁有龐大的貨運機隊，專門用於電子商務。幾乎所有機場都設有大型航站樓，專門為這些飛機和機組人員提供服務。這些飛機很容易識別，因為它們沒有窗戶。這些照片是我幾天前在Shaman機場等待起飛時自己拍的。
全球70%的電子商務銷售額來自中國和美國，所有這些行業的大多數工廠都在這裏。回到奧緯谘詢，他指出，飛機訂單在增加，但飛機產量在下降。去年全年交付的飛機不到300架，比2018年少30%。客運量創曆史新高，因此航空公司別無選擇，隻能延長飛機的飛行時間。就飛機的機齡而言，以及在相同時間內飛行時間更長而言，這是一個供應鏈問題，因為沒有足夠的原材料或設施來製造飛機，也沒有足夠的人員在這些設施中工作。
中國商飛是中國商用飛機有限責任公司，而中國商飛已經對波音和空客的雙頭壟斷格局構成了挑戰，因為商用飛機正在像其他所有製造業一樣發展。中國擁有製造所有飛機的供應鏈，也擁有充足的設施和人員。中國商飛也將失去中國市場。也就是說，中國的航空公司和航空貨運公司會從中國商飛購買飛機。南亞和東南亞市場就在附近，那裏的買家會密切關注中國商飛。尤其是在波音和空客的訂單積壓問題持續發酵的情況下，中國商飛的消息對航空業中任何不知道所有飛機在哪裏的人來說都是一個好消息。到2029年，Comarmac希望每年有200架C919噴氣式飛機投入市場。這也很有意義，尤其是對於那些了解中國市場的人來說。
中國市場在一月份，現在才四月份。就在幾個月前，COMAX還表示他們每年將生產50架，現在產量增加了75%，也就是增加了50%。Comarmac的高管隻有在已經實現之前的目標的情況下才會公開設定新的目標。這就是這裏的運作方式，因此Comarmac的產量正在迅速擴大。COMAX的產能激增是航空業的深刻轉變，波音和空客的雙頭壟斷正在苟延殘喘。Comarmac正在快速增長。Comarmac已經為他們生產的任何飛機準備好了市場和買家。Comarmac已經擁有數百份訂單，主要來自國內航空公司。如果COMAX的飛機獲得鄰國監管機構的批準，就會有更多的需求。
越南就是一個例子，監管機構正在推動COMAX飛機與美國標準等同。如果這種情況發生，市場份額就會上升。想想這對一家正在等待新飛機的航空公司意味著什麽，尤其是一家較新的航空公司，你無法增加飛機數量或乘客，而且如果你今天訂購一架飛機，你得等10年才能拿到。越南的做法將會在整個亞洲、南美和非洲重演。他們的國內航空公司無法從波音或空客獲得新飛機，但Comarmac將能夠供應這個市場。這將是另一個要麽從中國購買，要麽在沒有關稅的情況下生存的例子。這也會以複雜的方式擾亂供應鏈，但這對波音來說尤其糟糕。任何來自中國的產品都有高關稅，而波音從中國購買大量零部件來製造飛機，而這一切都變得非常昂貴。反過來，波音的飛機價格卻變得更加昂貴，因為互惠關稅，訂單甚至被取消。飛機完工交付後，航空公司迫切需要新飛機，但他們還是放棄了，因為現在成本太高了。俊亞航空是一家廉價航空公司，擁有超過100架飛機的機隊，但即將交付一架新的787飛機。未來20年，20%的新增飛機需求將來自中國，
但波音公司自2019年以來，他們就沒有從中國獲得過大額訂單，俊亞航空隻是第一筆訂單。現在，所有航空公司都麵臨著同樣的問題。中國政府要求航空公司停止從美國公司購買飛機或零部件。報複性關稅高達125%，是美國工廠生產的任何產品成本的兩倍多。
目前有10架737 Max飛機準備交付，這對當時在737 Max問題上頻頻出問題的波音公司來說是一個好消息。《華爾街日報》很好地解釋了用於製造飛機的零部件的免稅狀態，而這種狀態似乎即將結束。除非中國允許，否則波音公司將麵臨又10億美元的損失。波音計劃在今年年底前恢複交付。今年迄今為止，波音已交付了130架飛機，其中18架交付給中國。737 Max的售價超過1億美元。但這裏存在一個關稅豁免問題。許多國家的許多公司都需要生產商用客機的零部件。幾十年來，這些零部件都沒有征收關稅。但隨著新關稅的實施，關稅豁免消失了。
現在，所有來自中國或其他地方的零部件的價格都高得多。空客在阿拉巴馬州莫比爾設有組裝廠，在法國和德國也設有工廠。所有這些針對零部件和材料的關稅都將以各種奇怪的方式衝擊空客飛機的成本結構。業內人士已經不知道任何東西的價格了，所以沒有人再做任何事情。整個航空航天供應鏈正在被打亂。
達美航空就是一個例子。他們的高管不知道新飛機和舊飛機零部件的價格，所以他們的首席執行官切斷了新訂單，並停止了所有的擴張計劃。達美航空有大量空客飛機訂單。這些飛機預計今年到貨，而該公司表示，即使要征收高額關稅，也不必擔心。如果關稅高達20%，突然之間，這筆賬就算不通了。達美航空之前就經曆過這種情況。在特朗普第一屆政府執政期間，他們曾巧妙地繞過了這一關，在其他國家接收飛機，而不是將飛機租賃給美國境內航線提供服務。但沒有人真正確定這次這招是否有效。《虛假申報法》是司法部可以針對這種顯而易見的事情而采取的法律。
罰款是少付關稅金額的三倍，而且這也是一種刑事違法行為，可能會導致航空公司高管入獄。所以，效仿達美航空的做法更容易，他們表示不會接收任何新飛機。
今年，在供應鏈的上遊，其他公司也在做同樣的事情。MET Aerospace生產緊固件，與發動機和機翼相比，這似乎無關緊要，但波音公司卻宣布了不可抗力事件，並否認了履行合同的責任。
供應緊固件的所有其他問題都存在。又有一件事情擺在他們麵前：供應鏈堵塞，波音公司無法獲得製造飛機所需的零部件，隻從Howmet Aerospace公司采購了一個螺母、螺栓或緊固件，供應鏈就無法正常運轉。股票投資者忽略了全局，沒有關注其他所有事情，因為波音公司股價在達美航空推遲空客訂單後上漲，因為投資者認為這將為波音公司在美國市場搶占空客的銷量鋪平道路。所以高關稅對波音公司在美國市場有利。但波音公司訂購的大部分飛機都是為美國以外的航空公司製造的。空客更有可能在世界其他地區獲得市場份額。恐怖分子的出現對空客公司有利。在美國以外的所有地區，波音公司都受益。
在中國，波音公司麵臨被永遠拒之門外的風險，這將對空客和Comarmac公司有利。回到這張圖表。Comarmac公司根本不在乎他們是否在美國賣不出一架飛機。歐洲或北美為什麽要費心嚐試，Comarmac 隻需出現就能占領中國市場，對於這裏所有有巨大增長計劃的市場，除非波音和空客想出如何比現在更快地製造飛機，Comarmac 將出售他們製造的每架飛機，這些市場將屬於能夠製造飛機的公司，就這麽簡單，擁有飛機供應鏈的公司，擁有訓練有素的機械師和技術人員，他們可以製造飛機並提供替換零件，行業能力可以提高產量以滿足航空公司的需求，而波音和空客現在無法做到這一點，這是 Dalon Leon 的優點。
波音在商用航空領域的未來充滿疑問，尤其是在全球增長最快的市場。中國商用飛機製造公司（comarmac）將占據這些快速增長領域的大部分新市場。未來，中國航空公司和中國飛機製造商的市場份額將增長，而波音和空客的市場份額將萎縮。
幸運的是，波音公司也通過為五角大樓製造飛機賺了很多錢。不幸的是，波音公司需要從中國進口原材料、電子產品和零部件來為五角大樓製造飛機。
而中國正在切斷這些軍民兩用技術，即軍民兩用技術，任何經過中國的軍民兩用產品基本上都已銷聲匿跡。為了讓公司進口具有軍民兩用目的的中國零部件或材料，他們需要向中國監管機構保證，這些材料不會出售??給第三方或以其他方式用於軍事用途。這幾乎是不可能的。如果中國監管機構知道，如果他批準出售後來出現在隱形轟炸機或高超音速導彈係統中的材料，他將丟掉工作，那麽這個人的默認答案將是堅決的“不”。
這些材料的市場實際上已經關閉，更明確的是，波音公司本身也被列入了中國的出口禁令名單，這意味著波音公司和其他一些公司無法從中國獲得製造武器所需的材料，而幾乎所有這些材料都來自中國，因為中國已經宣布了稀土出口禁令，這些材料在航空航天領域，尤其是在軍用航空航天領域有著廣泛而深入的用途。一家航空航天公司製造客機，而軍用航空航天公司製造轟炸機和導彈，因此，這些來自中國的稀土出口帶對製造各種飛機的公司來說都是一個嚴重的問題，但稀土金屬、磁鐵和零部件的雙重用途出口帶對軍用航空航天承包商構成了生存威脅。製造無人機和汽車所需的磁鐵的出口在中國港口已被阻止。這些磁鐵也是製造機器人、導彈和航天器的武器製造商所需要的。波音公司，以及中國特別列出的其他一些公司，這些是我們未來戰爭所需供應鏈的關鍵投入，這些供應鏈被關閉了。
中國基本上生產了世界上所有的重稀土金屬，並且生產了世界上 90% 的稀土磁鐵，這些磁鐵的磁性要強得多。日本和德國占據了剩下的 10% 的大部分，但我們又遇到了中國。日本和德國需要中國提供製造磁鐵的原材料。我們應該假設中國的出口禁令將包括日本和德國為任何製造飛機和導彈的公司製造磁鐵的公司。假設監管機構剛剛拒絕了波音公司，那麽它也會給希望為波音公司製造磁鐵的日本或德國公司同樣的答案。如果我們想知道這會給中國帶來多大的痛苦，答案是不會太多。這些磁鐵微不足道，隻占中國整體出口的一小部分。對中國的經濟影響很小，但對其他地區的影響很大。這是來自能源研究所的分析，他們得出了五大要點。第四點是我們是如何走到這一步的，為什麽沒有快速解決辦法。我們不能在美國開采任何東西，我們不能建立汙染嚴重的稀土精煉廠。
在美國，我們不在美國生產磁鐵，因此，我們完全依賴其他國家進口鈧和鈧，進口量高達100%。總體而言，我們70%的磁鐵依賴中國。因此，我們距離擁有這些原材料的供應鏈還有幾十年的時間。波音公司可以在民用飛機上使用磁鐵，更不用說軍用飛機了。這是一份11月份的國會報告。分析師們觀察到，波音公司麵臨很多問題，波音公司正在遭受巨額損失。致命的墜機事故、安全、法律和財務問題。機械師們罷工，然後大幅加薪。波音公司不得不籌集250億美元來積累現金。除了商用飛機部門發生的一切之外，波音公司在太空和國防領域也麵臨著巨大的問題。國會和五角大樓意識到，我們的國防係統高度依賴波音公司，而波音公司也高度依賴中國。波音公司是五角大樓第四大承包商，每年為F-15“阿帕奇”和“奇努克”加油機支付超過200億美元的費用，以及太空和地球上的每一個項目。這份清單
波音公司依賴中國獲取其所需的零部件和材料，而中國卻切斷了這些供應。這是一份2022年的報告，列出了波音公司與五角大樓簽訂的航空航天合同，調查中的每個項目都依賴於一條貫穿中國的供應鏈。
最近，波音公司贏得了F-47戰鬥機的合同，下一代空中優勢未來戰鬥機，它擁有最先進的隱形技術，在速度和機動性方麵無與倫比，有效載荷是導彈和炸彈，美國的敵人永遠不會看到它即將到來，這一點是真的，沒有人會預見到它即將到來，因為它不會到來，這架飛機永遠不會被建造，那個紅色的大東西是五四廣場，位於山東省青島市，是……好的尋求，首先要問，它會給你，尋求，你就會找到開放的……
China is killing Boeing, Part I: As a builder of passenger jets and competitor to COMAC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNZcXNc9yJs
Boeing and Airbus form the duopoly of firms that manufacture most of the world's passenger jets.
But Boeing (BA) loses billions of dollars every quarter. This, despite a backlog of orders that will take over a decade to clear, products that costs over $100 million each, and serving as the Pentagon's fourth largest military contractor.
Boeing faces severe supply chain issues and production constraints, in addition to well-documented concerns about its safety record.
China's COMAC is a serious rival to Boeing and Airbus, and recently ramped up production of its main offering, the C-919, and will have the C-929 widebody ready by 2027. With an order book of hundreds of aircraft and robust supply chains, industry experts count COMAC as a strong contender for market share now owned by Boeing.
This will be especially true in the fastest-growing commercial markets in Asia, Africa, and South America, where COMAC will be either the default first choice for airlines, or an acceptable alternative as backlogs and production issues persist at BA and Airbus.
The trade war and the collapse of the aviation industry's global tariff exemptions may be a short-term boost for Boeing in the US market, but will make their planes prohibitively expensive everywhere else. China has instructed its airlines to refuse deliveries of BA aircraft and parts.
Closing scene, Dalian coast, Liaoning
The Pentagon and Congress are concerned that Boeing's safety, legal, and financial troubles leave the Defense Department vulnerable in event of the company's bankruptcy.
But while Boeing's poor management and engineering problems are grave in the short term, it is China's decisions to cut off Boeing from key supply chains that will doom the company.
Boeing is the archetypal buyer of "dual-use" technologies and materials from China, which are used in both civilian and military sectors. China has monopolies on heavy rare magnets, and the REM that are required to build them. These magnets are crucial in avionics systems for passenger jets, but even more so for advanced military systems, hypersonic missiles, and stealth aircraft.
China closed export markets for all these dual-use technologies. Boeing and other Pentagon contractors will be unable to fulfill the multi-billion dollar contracts, now that they've been cut off from China's supply chains.
Resources and links:
Bloomberg, Who Pays for Aerospace Tariffs? Maybe No One https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...
Wall Street Journal, Boeing, Airbus Set to Lose 45-Year Duty-Free Status https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trum...
Boeing posts $3.8 billion Q4 loss and has lost more than $35 billion since fatal crashes in 2019 https://www.king5.com/article/money/b...
Boeing’s crisis is getting worse. Now it’s borrowing tens of billions of dollars https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/15/in...
Wall Street Journal, China Goes After Boeing, Tells Airlines Not to Order New Aircraft From U.S. Jet Maker https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stoc...
Bloomberg, China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
Bloomberg, Chinese Airline Delays Boeing Jet Delivery as Tariffs Surge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
Trade War Turbulence: China Halts Boeing Jet Deliveries For Airlines https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tra...
Comac ramps up challenge to Boeing and Airbus with plans to boost C919 production capacity https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...
COMAC to Produce 75 C919 Jets to Challenge Airbus and Boeing Dominance https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/202...
Forbes, Aircraft Production Hurdles Create Record Order Backlog, Older Fleet https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwy...
Oliver Wyman, Global Fleet And MRO Market Forecast 2025-2035 https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-exper...
Reuters, Vietnam regulator proposes approval of Chinese COMAC jets, documents show https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...
Boeing Commercial Market Outlook, 2024-43 https://cmo.boeing.com/
Wall Street Journal, Boeing Hit From All Sides in Trump’s Trade War https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines...
Ranked: The 15 Largest Defense Budgets in the World https://www.visualcapitalist.com/larg...
China Issues New Export Control Regulations: What Businesses Need to Know? https://www.china-briefing.com/news/c...
China Imposes Export Controls on Rare Earth Minerals https://www.instituteforenergyresearc...
New York Times, China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/bu...
Semiconductors and National Defense: What Are the Stakes? https://www.csis.org/analysis/semicon...
America’s Carriers Rely on Chinese Chips, Our Depleted Munitions Too https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegl...
Defense Implications of Challenges at Boeing https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/...
Boeing Wins $8.46 Bln Worth Multiple Defense Department Contracts https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/boein...
What Are the Top Boeing Government Contracts? https://executivegov.com/2022/12/what...
Boeing wins contract for NGAD fighter jet, dubbed F-47 https://www.defensenews.com/air/2025/...
South China Morning Post, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon hit as China slaps dual-use export ban on 28 US defence firms https://www.scmp.com/news/china/milit...
China's COMAC will be bigger than Boeing and Airbus, combined, by 2040. 
• China's COMAC will be bigger than Boe...
<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>
good morning boeing is an American
manufacturer of commercial airliners
jets as well as a major defense
contractor in the last quarter Boeing
lost $3.8 billion and the company has lost over $
35 billion in the last 5 years and it's
hard to imagine how that's even possible
an airliner costs over $100 million and
Boeing has a backlog of orders that goes
out for years in other words Boeing has
an order book of thousands of planes and
tens of billions of dollars and Boeing
has huge defense contracts with the
Pentagon the Pentagon spends more than
the next 10 countries combined and this
company still manages to lose money
boeing then is a poorlyrun company even
in relatively good times and cannot make
money even though the aircraft industry
is a duopoly their only real competition in
that space today is Airbus but the good
times are ending for Boeing and that
duopoly is also ending comarmac is a
Chinese company who is growing rapidly
and they will eventually take over the
markets that are served today by Boeing
and Airbus but it's going to be Boeing
that goes away first this is the fleet and MRO forecast
from Oliver Wyman mro in aviation is
maintenance repair and overhaul so it's
a comprehensive survey and forecast for
how many planes how many parts how many
passengers across the world today the
industry has backlog of 17,000 planes a
record high at current production rates
it will take 14 years to clear those
assuming nobody shows up to order
anymore in 2019 the order backlog was 7
years and now it's 14 so airlines need to fly their planes
for longer planes are getting older and
that means higher fuel costs that also
means much more maintenance and repairs
and longer flight times to compensate
for the fact that there aren't enough
planes 112 million flight hours per year are
forecast for 2035 which is 39% higher than now and
it's a record high right now china will grow its fleet of planes
by another 40% during that time out to
2035 here is Boeing's report this is a
CMO or commercial market outlook cmos
for Boeing and Airbus are rolling and
they look out for 20 years so in this
case through 2043 here is Boeing's
forecast by region and we can see that
the growth in air traffic is going to be
primarily in the developing world and in
the global south global majority
countries south Asia Southeast Asia
Africa China and South America all will
grow at 5% or more per year by
comparison North America will grow at
half the rate of South and Southeast
Asia in other words Asia Africa and South
America will need a lot more planes and
Boeing and Airbus can't deliver the
planes that they have on order
now as for China it's considered a much
more mature market but it's still
growing fast 40% of the planes delivered
to the Chinese market will be
replacement aircraft with 60% to serve
new routes and markets this is a unique feature to the Chinese
market that China has an enormous cargo
fleet that is dedicated to e-commerce
there are huge terminals at almost all
the airports here which only serve those
aircraft and crews these planes are easy
to spot because they don't have any
windows these are photos that I took
myself waiting for takeoff out of Shaman
a few days ago 70% of all the e-commerce
sales in the world are China and United
States and most of the factories for all
those industries are right
here back to Oliver Wyman who notes that
the order books for planes are rising
but aircraft production is falling fewer
than300 airplanes were delivered during
all of last year which is 30% below 2018
passenger traffic is booming all-time
highs so airlines have no choice but to
fly their planes for longer and longer
longer in terms of how old the planes
are and longer in terms of the time in
the air in the same amount of time it's
a supply chain problem there aren't
enough raw materials or facilities to
build them or people to work in those
facilities comarmac is the commercial
aircraft corporation of China and COMAC
already represents a challenge to the
duopoly of Boeing and Airbus because
commercial aircraft is already going the
way that all the other manufacturing
industries have gone china owns the
supply chains to make everything and
they also have plenty facilities and
they have plenty of people comarmac will
also have China's market to lose that's
to say that Chinese airlines and air
cargo carriers here they will buy planes
from Comarmac is a first choice south
Asia and Southeast Asia markets are
literally next door and buyers there
will be looking hard at Comarmac 2
especially as these backlogs at Boeing
and Airbus drag on and the news out of
Comarmac is encouraging to anyone in the
airline business who has no idea where
all the planes are going to come from by
2029 Comarmac hopes that 200 of their
C919 jets hit the market every
year this is telling too especially for
those who know China in January it's
only April now so just a few months ago
COMAX said they were going to build 50
per year now it's 75 or 50% more com
executives would only set that new goal
publicly if they had already met their
previous one that's how it works here so
production at Comarmac is scaling up and
quickly bottom line COMAX capacity boom
is a profound shift in aviation and the
Boeing and Airbus duopoly is living on
borrowed time comarmac is growing
aggressively and Comarmac has ready
markets and buyers for any plane they
build comarmac has hundreds of orders
mostly from domestic airlines and there
is more ready demand when COMAX planes
get approved by regulators in neighboring countries vietnam is an
example where regulators are pushing to
recognize COMAX planes as equivalent to
American standards when that happens the market share goes
up and consider what it means for an
airline who is waiting for new planes
especially if it's a newer airline you
can't add roots or passengers and you're
waiting 10 years to get a plane if you
order it today what Vietnam is doing will be
replayed all across Asia and South
America and Africa their domestic
airlines cannot get new planes from
Boeing or Airbus but Comarmac will be
able to supply this market it will be
another instance of either buying from
China or doing without the tariff situation is
scrambling up supply chains in complex
ways as well but it's especially bad for
Boeing anything coming from China has a
high tariff and Boeing buys a lot of
components from China to build their
planes that is all getting very
expensive going the other way Boeing
planes just became much more expensive
because of reciprocal tariffs orders are
being cancelled even after the planes
have been completed and delivered
airlines are desperate for new planes
but they're walking away anyway because
now they just cost too much junya is a
budget airline here with a fleet of over
a 100 planes but paws delivery of a new
787 20% of the new demand for planes in the
next 20 years will be here but Boeing
hasn't had large orders from China since
2019 and Junya was just the first it's
now all the airlines here china's
government requested that airlines halt
buys of planes or parts from US companies the retaliatory tariffs 125% more than double the cost of anything coming out of US factories
there are 10 737 Max planes which are
ready for delivery which at the time was
welcome relief for Boeing who had so
many problems with the 737 Max the Wall Street Journal does a good
job here of explaining the dutyfree
status of components that go into
building airplanes that seems to be
ending boeing is looking at another
billion in losses unless China resumes
deliveries by the end of this year and
of the 130 planes Boeing has delivered
so far this year 18 came to China the price of the 737 Max is over
$100 million but here is the tariff exemption
problem it takes a lot of companies in a
lot of countries to produce parts for a
commercial airliner and for decades
there were no tariffs applied on any of
it but with the new tariffs that
exemption goes away and everything
sourced from China or from anywhere now
costs a lot more airbus has an assembly
plant in Mobile Alabama other plants in France and
Germany so all these tariffs on
components and materials are going to
hit cost structures of Airbus planes in
a lot of weird ways nobody in the
industry has any idea what anything is
going to cost anymore and so nobody is
doing anything the entire supply chain
for aerospace is being blown
up delta Airlines is an example and
their executives don't know what
anything costs anymore either for new
planes or parts for their old ones so
their CEO cut off new orders and stopped
all their expansion plans delta had big
orders for Airbus planes that are
supposed to arrive this year and the
company said don't even bother if
they're going to have a high tariff on
them if the tariff is 20% suddenly the
math doesn't work delta went through this before
during the first Trump administration
and they had a clever workaround by
taking delivery in a different
country than leasing the plane to
service routes in the United States
but nobody is really sure if that'll
work this time the False Claims Act is a
law that the Justice Department could
employ here against something as obvious
as that and the fines are three times
the amount of underpaid tariffs and it's
also a criminal violation that might see
airline executives going to jail so it's
easier to do just what Delta did and say
they're not going to take any new planes
this year further up the supply chain other
companies are doing the same thing how
met aerospace makes fasteners and that
doesn't seem significant compared to
engines and wings but how declared a
force majure event and disclaimed their
responsibility to fulfill contracts to
supply fasteners with all the other problems
Boeing has got here's another one for
them the supply chain is getting jammed
up and Boeing doesn't get the parts it
needs to build their planes just one nut
or bolt or a fastener from Howmet
Aerospace and the supply chain doesn't
work stock investors are missing the big
picture here and not paying attention to
everything else going on because Boeing
stock went up after Delta pushed back
their Airbus order because investors
thought that would clear a path for
Boeing to take sales from Airbus in the
US market so the high tariffs are to
Boeing's benefit in the American market
but most of Boeing's planes on order are
for airlines outside the United States
and Airbus is much more likely to gain
market share in the rest of the world
the terrorist would be to Airbus's
benefit everywhere outside the United
States in China Boeing is at risk of
being locked out forever which would be
to Airbus's benefit and to the benefit
of Comarmac going back to this chart again Comarmac
doesn't care if they never sell a plane
in Europe or North America why bother to
even try comarmac will have the China
market just by showing up and for all
the markets here that have big growth
plans unless Boeing and Airbus figure
out how to build planes a lot faster
than they are now Comarmac will sell
every single plane they build these
markets will belong to the company that
can build planes it's as simple as that
the company that has the supply chains
for planes the highly trained machinists
and technicians who can build them and
the replacement parts for them the
industry capacity to ramp up production
to meet the demand from airlines and Boeing and Airbus can't do
those things now this is Dalon Leon be good.
good morning boeing's future in
commercial aviation is very much in
doubt especially in the fastest growing
markets in the world comarmac will take
over most of the new markets in these
fast growing areas and going forward the
market share for Chinese airlines and
for China's plane maker will grow while
shrinking for Boeing and for Airbus
fortunately for Boeing the company also
makes a lot of money building planes for
the Pentagon unfortunately for Boeing they
need raw materials and electronics and
components from China to build those
planes for the Pentagon and China is
cutting those off dual use is technology that has
applications in both civilian and
military sectors and anything dual use
that goes through China is basically
dead in order for companies to import China
components or materials that have a
dual-use purpose they need to guarantee
Chinese regulators that those materials
will not be sold to a third party or
otherwise be used in military
applications and this is basically
impossible if a regulator in China knows that he
will lose his job if he approves a sale
of materials that later show up in a
stealth bomber or in a hypersonic
missile system the default answer from
that guy is going to be a hard
no so the markets for these materials
are effectively closed more explicitly Boeing itself was
placed on the Chinese export ban list by
name and this means that Boeing along
with these other companies here cannot
get materials they need to build weapons
from China and China is where almost all
of them come from for the rare earth's export bans
that have already been announced by
China they have deep and wide use in
aerospace and especially in military
aerospace an aerospace company builds
planes for passengers a military
aerospace company builds bombers and
missiles so these rare earth export
bands from China are a serious problem
for companies that build planes of all
types but the dual use export bands of
rare earth metals and magnets and
components are an existential threat to
military aerospace contractors exports of magnets that are
necessary for the manufacturing of
drones and cars have been stopped at
China's ports these are also the magnets
needed by weapons makers who build
robots missiles and spacecraft boeing
then along with some others that were
specifically singled out by
China these are the critical inputs for
the supply chains of everything we need
for the future of warfare those chains
are shut down china produces basically all may as well say
of the heavy rare earth metals in the
world and 90% of the world's rare earth
magnets which are much more
powerful japan and Germany make up most
of the remaining 10% but then we run
into China again japan and Germany need
China for the raw materials to build
their magnets and we should assume that
China's export ban is going to include
companies in Japan and Germany that
build magnets for anybody building
planes and missiles and that
hypothetical regulator who just said no
to Boeing is going to give the same
answer to a Japanese or German company
who hopes to build magnets for
Boeing and in case we're wondering how
much pain this will cause here in China
it's not very much at all these magnets
are insignificant just a tiny share of
China's overall exports minimal economic pain in China
with big effects everywhere
else this is an analysis from the
Institute for Energy Research and they
have five big takeaways number four is how we got here
and why there's no quick fix we cannot
mine anything in the United States we
cannot set up the dirty refineries for
rare earths in the United States and we
do not manufacture magnets in the United
States as a result we are wholly
dependent on others for imports for
scandium and itrium at 100% and overall we're dependent on
China for 70% so we're decades away from
having a supply chain for these raw
materials and then the magnets that
Boeing can use in their civilian
aircraft let alone in their military
planes this is a congressional report from
November the analysts observe here that
Boeing has a lot of problems and Boeing
is losing a lot of money fatal crashes
safety legal and financial troubles the
machinists went on strike then got big
payraises then Boeing had to raise $25
billion to build cash big problem for
Boeing in space and in defense in
addition to everything happening in
their commercial jets division congress
and the Pentagon realize that our
defense systems are highly dependent on
Boeing and in turn though Boeing is
highly dependent on China boeing is the
fourth largest Pentagon contractor at
over 20 billion a year the F-15 Apaches
and Chinuks refueling tankers as well as
space and for every single thing on this
list Boeing is dependent on China to get
the parts and the materials they need
and China's just cut them
off this is a report from 2022 and it's
a big list of Boeing's aerospace
contracts with the Pentagon and every
project in this survey depends on a
supply chain that runs through China
most recently Boeing won the contract
for the F-47 fighter jet the next
generation air dominance future fighter
jet it has state-of-the-art stealth
technology there is nothing close to it
in terms of speed maneuverability
payload payload being missiles and bombs
america's enemies will never see it
coming that part is true nobody will see
this coming because it's not coming this
plane will never be built that big red thing is May 4th
Square in Ching Dao Shandong Province be
good seek first of all ask it will be given to you
seek and you will find open.
