風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
比爾·克林頓，2025 年柏林世界論壇
比爾·克林頓：“民主不僅僅是真正的選舉和多數製”
作者：Tim Hains 日期：2025年3月19日
前總統比爾·克林頓周二在柏林舉行的“2025 年民主、科技和人類未來世界論壇”上發表講話：
比爾·克林頓：我認為我們今天麵臨的很多問題並不是新問題；我認為它們由來已久。我認為人們一直渴望權力和財富。我認為，如果可以逃脫懲罰，人們總是願意為自己濫用權力找借口。
我認為民主最重要的一點是，當你沒有獲勝時它是如何運作的——也就是說，民主是一個法治高於意誌統治的製度，社區的福利高於領導者的利益，人民的激情可以在不經過深思熟慮的情況下得到緩和。
當這位偉大的女性開始執政時，她正在與杜特爾特打交道，杜特爾特曾說他要殺死街上所有的毒販，很多母親希望他這麽做，因為他們的孩子在街上被人販毒，他們所做的太可怕了。最後，他即將被追究責任，但重要的是要記住，是某種真實的東西激發了人民的激情，使他贏得了一場真正的選舉。
所以，我想說的第一件事是，民主不僅僅是真正的選舉和多數人統治——它關乎那些相信少數人權利和個人權利的人，以及對每個人權力的限製。
我想說的第二件事是，除非你時不時地獲勝，否則這一切都不重要——也就是說，我們在這裏慶祝那些真正贏得選舉的人，這很重要——你必須時不時地獲勝；否則，沒人會關注。
所以，我認為我們需要看看現在發生了什麽。你們中的一些人說整個信息生態係統很奇怪。在我的國家，有些人從社交媒體獲取所有信息，甚至來自主流報紙或網絡電視的信息。
哦，這似乎很容易。問題是，如果你相信民主，這很難做到。你仍然必須讓人們停下來，深呼吸，思考他們在時間的長河中處於什麽位置，以及真正發生了什麽。這並不容易，呃，我記得在上次選舉中，我正竭盡所能為我的候選人做事，這兩個戴著 MAGA 帽子的人顯然是特朗普的支持者，他們走過來問我是否願意和他們合影。我說：“當然。”然後，我拍了張照片，那個人說：“你平衡預算的方式很棒——我們之後再也沒有這樣做過，差得很遠。”然後，他還說了幾句好話，我說：“那麽，我可以為我的候選人辯護嗎？”那個人看著我笑了笑，說：“不，我已經太過分了。”
但他是誠實的；他明白自己已經被現在主導美國的身份政治所俘虜，所以，至少，我和他進行了一次文明的交談。
我之所以這麽說，是因為世界上每個國家都在發生這種情況。你看，很多讓杜特爾特上台的人都是善良、正派的人，他們每天起床去上班，害怕自己無法在越來越無法無天和困難的環境中撫養孩子。
不久前，很多人的身份被被認為是強製性的社會行為所麻痹。我們的女兒讓我們擺脫了對同性婚姻的反對，而這一直是我成長過程中的一部分。最後，當她還小的時候，她看著我說：“爸爸，這不是你的問題。你必須意識到，像婚姻這樣親密的關係，它與婚姻之外的人無關。”
突然間，我坐在那裏，一盞燈亮了，一個負擔被卸了下來。我告訴你這些，是因為如何達到這些裏程碑很重要，如何繼續戰鬥很重要，獲勝也很重要——你必須時不時地獲勝；你必須讓人們相信你是對的，你不能放棄別人。
真正令人震驚的是——如果你不是美國人，那一定很奇怪——在過去幾十年裏，在全世界範圍內，盡管我的國家發生了這麽多好事，但我們卻讓數百萬人相信他們主要是受害者，這真是太神奇了。我們必須給予應得的讚揚——宣傳這一事業的人做得很好。
其次，我們允許國家存在太多不平等；有些事情值得憤慨，有些事情值得憤怒。我還想請你們所有人記住，你們給出了最好的論據，即你們不能僅僅因為民主對你們今天有好處或者它總體上產生了更好的結果就支持民主。民主確實如此——不同的群體基於
比同質群體做出更好的決策。我可以用一遍又一遍證明這一點的研究填滿這個房間。同質群體是否人數眾多，足以獲勝，是否感到害怕和被剝奪，這都無關緊要。
因此，我懇求你們不要厭倦這項工作。一百多年前，在這個偉大的國家，一位偉大的基督教民主黨人馬克斯·韋伯寫了一本很短的書，名為《政治作為一種職業》。我每隔兩三年就會重讀一遍；這是一本漂亮的小書，大約 117 頁，其中最重要的一句話是：“政治是漫長而緩慢地鑽硬木板。”
他說，如果你想做這項工作，你必須願意付出時間的代價，然後，如果你掌權，如果你有宗教信仰，你必須相信每一天，你的靈魂都處於危險之中，因為對他人生命的權力行使，就是承擔一個我們生來就沒有智慧去充分行使的角色。這就是為什麽我們必須克製；這就是為什麽我們需要法治。
在美國，有一句方便的政治諺語說，即使是壞了的鍾，一天也有兩次是對的——這是真的，沒有人是永遠正確的。我們其他人注定要努力擺脫壞鍾模式，盡可能接近永遠正確。我們這些相信民主的人意識到，參與這一事業的人越多，社會就越有可能變得更好，而現在我們正在與這種冷漠的興起作鬥爭，每個人都說：“哦，我太累了。我不想再想這件事了。”
“哦，我知道俄羅斯發生的事情很不幸，但是，哦，我能做些什麽呢？我真的很喜歡這個男子漢，他說話強硬，行為強硬，讓我擺脫了思考所有這些事情的負擔。我的意思是，我每天都有工作要做，我有賬單要付，我有孩子要擔心，我關心什麽？我知道什麽？”
這就是我們在這裏的每一個國家都必須接觸的人。看，我喜歡政治；我玩得很開心。我一路輸了兩次選舉，但我一直堅持下去。我當時太傻了，不知道那不是最終結果，我玩得很開心，我真的對人很感興趣，名人和我遇到的人。這很有幫助。
我喜歡我們必須做出的經濟學和科學決策的複雜性，我很高興我們對人類基因組進行了測序，醫生，我希望你能做到你說的一切，請快點。明年，我們將慶祝結婚 50 周年——不，今年，今年——我的意思是，今年，我忘了我已經進入了新的一年——就是今年。有一天有人問我：“好吧，我知道事情並不輕鬆，那麽你怎麽知道你有麻煩了？你的預警係統是什麽？”我說：“當希拉裏開始走到陌生人麵前，問‘你見過我的第一任丈夫嗎？’時，我就知道了。”
所以，我之所以這麽說，是因為我確實希望你們能為我們創造機會，讓我們活得更長，因為當你死後，擁有所有精神能力是一件很棒的事情——如果你的大腦和身體都能正常運作，那是一件很棒的事情。但最重要的是，無論你活多久，你將如何記錄你的生活？你如何記錄決定了你是否真的關心民主。你如何記錄決定了你是否是以色列人，你最喜歡這個國家的什麽。
今晚回家時，如果你想保持相關性，無論你是否在位，請問自己這個問題：首先，問問自己，我記錄的方式是否有意義？對我來說，問題是：當你辭職時，人們的生活是否比你剛開始時更好？孩子們的未來是否更光明，事情是否在好轉而不是分崩離析？這是我簡單的小小記分卡，我的觀點是，在公共生活中，如果你能說，“是的，他們過得更好，是的，孩子們有更光明的未來，是的，我們更有可能團結在一起而不是被摧毀”，我認為這是相當不錯的努力。
如果你考慮一下媒體的運作方式，如果你考慮一下威權政治的發展方式，你會發現這一切都是基於摧毀一切——你必須保持憤怒，保持怨恨，確保你的人群獲勝，而另一群人失敗。這就是你對勝利的定義。這就是為什麽那個戴著 MAGA 帽子的人在上次選舉中看著我說，“我太過分了”，他的身份——他無法擺脫自己所處的位置。
在我看來，有人建議巴勒斯坦人撤離加沙，這樣我們就可以在那裏建立與拉斯維加斯大道相當的地方。如果你從未去過加沙，但有機會去的話，而且那裏很安全，我推薦你去——那裏美得令人窒息，海灘美得令人難以置信，而且沒有盡頭。我曾經向阿拉法特主席提出的一個論點是，如果我們能用足夠的西岸來保護加沙，那麽加沙將成為巴勒斯坦國巨大的財富來源。
受到巴勒斯坦人的尊重和接受——海灘可能是巴勒斯坦國未來令人難以置信的關鍵。而這還是在我們知道他們在近海水域有天然氣之前。
但這一切都取決於你如何記分。所以，我要說的是：我一生都在努力幫助實現和平與進步。當極右翼開始試圖接管美國時——不是通過白宮，而是通過國會，很多年前，但我已經卸任了——一位發言人說：“你知道，老布什總統和他的顧問科林·鮑威爾和海軍上將斯考克羅夫特以及克林頓總統的問題在於，他們被困在了現實世界中。
他們根本就沒有意識到，冷戰結束後，美國曾短暫地成為世界上占主導地位的經濟、政治和軍事力量。我確實明白這一點，”他們說，“但我們應該利用這段時間重塑現實——我們不必生活在現實世界中。”我聽到這個消息，心想：“天哪，這家夥一直在自欺欺人。”
所以，最後，一位記者問我是怎麽想的——我是不是被困在了現實世界中？我說：“你知道，我在一個酗酒的家庭裏長大。我整個童年都在努力融入現實世界。我喜歡這裏，我想我會留下來。”但是，為了留下來，你必須為其他人騰出空間。為了留下來，你必須重視多樣性，將其作為經濟、政治甚至個人更新和充實的源泉。
所以，請原諒我，我認為整個世界都在經曆一場身份危機，但這並不是什麽新鮮事——它和時間一樣古老；隻是一切都披上了閃亮的新衣和人工智能。但是，如果你很脆弱，即使沒有算法，你也會被坑，如果你相信個人的責任、自由和民主的力量，即使在你沒有獲勝的日子裏，也沒有人能把它從你身上奪走——沒有人能把它奪走。
所以，別忘了——我要說的最後一點——納爾遜·曼德拉告訴我，他在監獄裏經曆的最重要的事情是意識到把他關進監獄的人可以奪走他的一切，除了他的思想和心靈——那些他必須放棄的東西。不要放棄它們。隻要你繼續戰鬥，我們就會沒事的。
Bill Clinton, Berlin World Forum 2025
Bill Clinton: "Democracy Is About More Than Real Elections And Majority Rule"
By Tim Hains On Date March 19, 2025
Former President Bill Clinton spoke Tuesday at the "World Forum 2025 on the Future of Democracy, Tech and Humankind" in Berlin:
BILL CLINTON: I think a lot of this problem we’re facing today is not new; I think it’s old. I think people have always hungered for power and wealth. I think people have always been willing to make excuses for themselves in the abuse of power if they could get away with it.
I think the most important thing about democracy is how it works when you don’t win—that is, it’s a system in which the rule of law is bigger than the rule of will, in which the welfare of the community is greater than the interest of the leader, and in which the passions of the people can be moderated before they’re acted on in a not well-thought-out way.
When this great woman started, she was dealing with Duterte who had said that he was going to kill all these drug dealers on the street, and a lot of mothers wanted him to do it because their children were getting given drugs on the street, and what they did was terrible. And, finally, he’s about to be held accountable, but it’s important to remember there was something real that started the passions of the people and that enabled him to win a real election.
So, the first thing I want to say is, democracy is about more than real elections and majority rule-- It’s about people who believe in minority rights and individual rights and restraints on everybody’s power.
The second thing I want to say is, it doesn’t matter unless you win now and again—that is, we celebrated people here who actually won elections, and it’s important—you have to win now and again; otherwise, nobody pays attention.
So, I think we need to look at what’s going on at this moment. Some of you have said this whole information ecosystem is bizarre. There are people in my country who get all their information from social media, even information that originated in mainstream newspapers or network television.
Oh, it seems so easy. The problem is, if you believe in democracy, it’s hard work. You still have to get people to stop, take a deep breath, and think about where they are in the flow of time and what’s really going on. It is not easy, and, uh, I remember in the last election, I was going out there doing what I could for my candidate, and these two guys in MAGA hats who were clearly for Trump came up and asked if I would take a picture with them. I said, “Sure.” So, I’m taking a picture, and the guy said, “It was great the way you balanced the budget—we hadn’t done it since, not close.” And, so he said a couple of other nice things, and I said, “Well, can I make my case for my candidate?” And the guy looked at me and smiled; he said, “No, I’m too far gone.”
But he was honest; he understood that he had been captured by the identity politics which now dominate America, and so, at least, I had a civilized conversation with him.
And I say that because this is going on in every country in the world. Look, a lot of the people that brought Duterte to power were good, decent people that got up every day and went to work and were terrified they couldn’t raise their kids in an increasingly lawless and difficult atmosphere.
A lot of people’s identity is paralyzed by what was considered mandatory social behavior not very long ago. Our daughter got us out of our opposition to gay marriage, which was just a visceral part of my upbringing, and, finally, when she was young, she looked at me and she said, “Dad, it’s not about you. You have to realize a relationship as intimate as marriage—it’s not about somebody who’s not in the marriage.”
And all of a sudden, I was sitting there, and a light came on, and a burden was lifted. I’m just telling you all this because how you reach these milestones is important, and how you keep fighting is important, and winning is important—you got to win every now and then; you got to convince people that you’re right, and you can’t give up on people.
The thing that is truly stunning—and it must be really weird if you’re not American to look at it—how, in the wide world, with all the good things that have happened to my country in the last few decades, we have convinced millions of people that they are primarily victims, is amazing. And we have to give credit where credit is due—the people that are propagating this business have done a good job.
Secondly, we have allowed too much inequality in our country; there are things to resent, there are things to be angry about. I would ask all of you also to remember that you gave the best argument that you cannot be for democracy just because it’s good for you today or it produces better outcomes in general. It does—diverse groups basically make better decisions than homogeneous groups. I could fill this room with the studies that have proved this over and over and over again. It doesn’t matter if the homogeneous group is numerous enough to win and afraid and feeling dispossessed.
So, I plead with you not to grow weary in doing this work. More than a hundred years ago, in this great country, a great Christian Democrat, Max Weber, wrote a very short book called "Politics as a Vocation." I reread it every two or three years; it’s a beautiful little book, about 117 pages long, and the most important line is, “Politics is the long and slow boring of hard boards.”
He said, if you want to do this work, you have to be willing to pay the price of time, and then, if you get in power, you have to be, if you’re religious, to believe that every single day, your very soul is on the line, because to exercise power over another person’s life is to assume a role that none of us were born with the wisdom to fully exercise. That’s why we have to have restraint; that’s why we need the rule of law.
In America, there’s a convenient political saying that even a broken clock is right twice a day—that’s true, and nobody’s right all the time. The rest of us are fated to live our lives trying to move away from the broken clock model as close to being right all the time as possible. Those of us who believe in democracy realize that the more people who can be part of that endeavor, the more likely the society is to be better off, and now we’re fighting this rise of apathy, where everybody says, “Oh, I’m so tired. I don’t want to think about this anymore."
"Oh, I know it’s unfortunate what’s happening in Russia, but, oh, what can I do about it? And I really like this macho person who talks tough, acts tough, and relieves me of any of the burdens of thinking about all this stuff. I mean, I have a job to do every day, I got bills to pay, I’ve got kids to worry about, what do I care? What do I know?”
That is the person we have to reach in every single nation represented here. Look, I love politics; I had a good time doing it. I lost two elections along the way, and I just kept going. I was so dumb, I didn’t know it wasn’t final, and I had a great time, and I was genuinely interested in people, famous people and just people I ran into. It helps.
I love the complexity of economics and scientific decisions we had to make, and I’m glad we sequenced the human genome, and, Doctor, I hope you can do everything you say, and, please, hurry up. Next year, we celebrate our 50th anniversary—no, this year, this year—I mean, this year, I forget I’m in a new year—it’s this year. And somebody asked me one day, “Well, I know it wasn’t all easy sailing, so how did you know you were in trouble? What was your early warning system?” I said, “When Hillary starts going up to total strangers and says, ‘Have you met my first husband?’—that’s when I know.”
So, I’m saying this because I do want you to develop the opportunity for us to live longer, because it’s a great thing to have all your mental facilities when you’re over—if you can hang around with your brain as well as your body, it’s a great thing. But the most important thing is, however long you live, how will you keep score with your life? How you keep score determines whether you really care about democracy. How you keep score determines if you’re an Israeli, what you love most about your country.
Ask yourself this, when you go home tonight, if you want to stay relevant, whether you’re in power or out: Ask yourself, first of all, am I keeping score in a way that makes any sense at all? For me, it is: Are people better off when you quit than when you started? Do the children have a brighter future, and are things coming together instead of being torn apart? That’s my simple little scorecard, and my view is that, in public life, if you can say, “Yes, they’re better off, and, yes, the kids have a brighter future, and, yes, we’re more likely to hold together than be blown apart,” I think that’s a pretty good effort.
If you think about the way media works, if you think about the way authoritarian politics goes, it’s all based on blowing all that up—you got to stay mad, stay resentful, and make sure your crowd wins while the other crowd loses. That’s how you define victory. That’s why that guy looked at me in the last election, in his MAGA cap, and said, “I’m too far gone,” and his identity—he couldn’t get outside of where he was.
It seemed to me that it was being suggested that the Palestinians should evacuate Gaza so that we could build the equivalence of the Strip in Vegas there. If you’ve never been to Gaza, and you ever get a chance to go, and it’s safe, I recommend it—it’s breathtakingly beautiful, the beach is unbelievable, and it goes on forever. And one of the arguments I used to make to Chairman Arafat is that it would be a source of enormous wealth for a Palestinian state if we could secure it with enough of the West Bank to be respectable and acceptable to the Palestinians—that the beach might be the unbelievable key to the future of a Palestinian state. And that’s before we knew they had any gas in the water offshore.
But it all depends on how you keep score. So, I will say this: I spent a lifetime trying to help make peace and progress. When the far right started trying to take over America—not through the White House, but through Congress, many years ago, but I was already out of office—one guy, one of these spokespeople, said, “You know, the problem with the first President Bush and his advisers, Colin Powell and Admiral Scowcroft, and President Clinton, is that they were trapped in the reality-based world.
They simply did not understand that, after the Cold War was over, we had a momentary period where America was the dominant economic, political, and military power in the world. I did understand that,” they said, “but we should have used it to remake reality—we didn’t have to be in the reality-based world.” I heard that, and I thought, “Oh God, this guy’s been drinking his own Kool-Aid.”
So, finally, a reporter asked me what I thought—was I trapped in the reality-based world? And I said, “You know, I grew up in an alcoholic home. I spent my entire childhood trying to get into the reality-based world. I like it here, and I think I’ll stay.” But, in order to stay, you had to make room for everybody else. In order to stay, you have to value diversity as a source of economic, political, and even personal renewal and enrichment.
So, if you’ll forgive me, I think the whole world’s having an identity crisis, but it’s not a new one—it’s as old as time; it’s just all in shiny new clothes and AI. But you can be screwed without an algorithm if you’re vulnerable, and if you believe in individual responsibility and freedom and the power of democracy, even on the days you don’t win, nobody can take it away from you—nobody can take it away.
So, don’t forget—last point I want to make—Nelson Mandela told me the most important thing that happened to him in prison was realizing that the people who put him in jail could take everything from him except his mind and his heart—those things he had to give away. Don’t give them away. We’re going to be fine if you keep fighting.
