Toynbee 預言 中國文化將統一世界

湯因比預言：中國文化將統一世界

Toynbee predicts: Chinese culture will unify the world

November 26, 2016
http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html

阿諾德·湯因貝是英國著名曆史學家。他的20卷本巨著《曆史研究》與斯賓格勒的《西方的沒落》和《羅馬吉本的早興衰》並列，傳承了“最持久的沉思”，他和斯賓格勒有一個共同點：他們兩人都洞察了二十世紀西方文明的衰落，但他不像斯賓格勒那樣，為西方描繪了可怕無望的前景，他試圖以基督的救贖精神來拯救西方。他的研究繼承自英國的經驗主義，他的核心是思想受到法國哲學家柏格森的影響，柏格森的靈感來自於德國的歌德，他早期對古羅馬的研究導致了全球一體化的思想，使他相信人類的統一性，因此被稱為“全球統一先知” “”。下麵，我就摘錄他晚年與日本社會活動家池田合著的對話：《展望二十一世紀》，看看他是如何預言世界統一的：

中華民族的美德在屈辱的世紀中繼續發揮作用。這種美德也體現在移居世界各地的華僑華人的活動中。

東亞擁有許多曆史遺產，可以使其成為世界統一的地理和文化軸心。在我看來，這些遺產有以下幾個方麵：

第一，中華民族的經驗。在過去的二十一個世紀裏，中國在全世界範圍內維持著一個帝國，是真正的區域國家的典範。

其次，在中國曆史的長河中，中華民族逐漸培育了世界精神。

第三，儒家世界觀中的人文主義。

第四，儒釋道的理性主義。

第五，東亞人對宇宙的奧秘敏感，認為宇宙想要主宰宇宙就會被打敗。我想，這就是道家思想最可貴的意義。

第六，這種直覺是佛家、道家和中國所有哲學流派（除了今天已絕跡的法家）所共有的。人類的目的不是超越自己的想象來主宰自然，而是相信自己必須與自然和諧相處。

第七，過去，無論是軍事領域還是非軍事領域，科學應用於現代技術競爭，西方人占據主導地位，但東亞國家可以擊敗他們。日本人已經證明了這一點。

第八，日本人和越南人敢於挑戰西方的勇氣。這種勇氣在未來還會繼續下去，但我希望在人類曆史的下一個階段，能夠為解決人類問題的建設性事業做出貢獻。

在現代世界，我親身體會到中國人能夠勝任任何職業，並且能夠保持高水平的家庭生活。中國人無論在國家衰落的時候，還是在國家動亂的時候，都能保持這種美德。

未來統一世界的恐怕不是西歐國家，也不是西歐國家，而是中國。而正因為中國對未來的政治使命有這樣的政治信號，所以中國在當今世界上有著驚人的威望。中國兩千二百年來的統一政府，除了很短的一段時間外，在政治上已經將億萬人民統一為一個整體。而且，一個統一的中國在所有受保護國家的政治主權上都得到承認。文化的影響甚至滲透到遙遠的地區，即所謂的中華王國”。事實上，自公元前221年以來，中國一直是半個世界的中心，在政治的各個領域都團結一致，而在西方，我是這樣的。恐怕中國的命運將帶動半個以上的世界，為整個世界帶來政治的團結與和平。

英國人打敗了拿破侖，立即發動了鴉片戰爭，喚醒了中國。

未來中國將在人類社會中發揮怎樣的作用？

由於西方族勢力的擴張和暫時統治，地球人類社會已經擺脫了這種統治力量，並將在未來繼續下去。在人類社會最後排入地球的時候，中國僅僅停留在三個國家、五強之一或者更強大的位置？或者成為世界的“王國”，是中國未來的使命？

這是全人類都關心的問題，尤其是距離中國較近的蘇聯和日本。美國可以撤軍

從東亞大陸沿岸和海上島嶼前往關島，然後從夏威夷撤出。一旦需要撤回美國西海岸，美國和中國就可以脫離整個太平洋。但今天，單純的地理距離不再重要。火箭的發明使浩瀚的太平洋變得窄如溪流。包括中國在內的所有國家都在直線範圍內。這就是今天的現實。
所以，在我看來，當全人類成長為一個社會時，可能就是世界統一的日子。如今，在原子時代，這種通過武力進行統一征服的方式——統一地球大部分地區的傳統方式——已經很難做到。同時，我所預見的和平統一必須以地理和文化為軸心，不斷具體化和擴大。我有預感，這個軸心不在美國、歐洲和蘇聯，而是在東亞。

東亞地區包括中國、日本、韓國、越南，人口眾多。這些民族的活力、勤奮、勇氣、智慧，不亞於世界上任何一個民族。從地理上看，這是從中華文化與佛教共同傳承的角度來看，還是從外部現代西方文明不得不妥協的這個共同問題來看，它們是相連的紐帶。就中國人而言，幾千年來成功地團結了政治界和文化界數億人民，比世界上任何其他民族都多。他們展示了政治和文化上統一的能力，並取得了無與倫比的成功。這種統一是當今世界的絕對要求。中國人民與東亞人民之所以合作，在人類統一進程中被認為是不可或缺的、必然的過程中，可能會起到主導作用，原因就在這裏。

如果我推測沒有錯誤的話，估計世界的統一就能和平實現了。這是原子時代唯一可行的道路。然而，雖然是中華民族，但任何時候都不太平。戰國時期，和古希臘、近代歐洲一樣，也有分裂和鬥爭。然而漢代以後，戰國時期的好戰精神就被拋棄了。早在公元前202年，漢朝開國皇帝劉邦就完成了中國的統一。

在此之前，始皇帝的政治統一是通過武力實現的。因此，他死後，出現了民族主義複辟的地方。漢代劉邦維護了中國民族感情從地方分權到世界主義的平衡。與秦始皇的魅力和專製行為相反，他巧妙地用自己的生命來完成事業。

未來統一世界的人一定是世界主義者，正如中國的第二任統治者取得了更大的成功一樣。同時，還需要有實現最終目標的能力。世界的統一是避免人類集體自殺的出路。在這方麵，現在準備最好的是兩千多年來形成了獨特思維方式的中國人民。不是在半個世界，而是在整個地球上，人們可以生活或社交。必須實現統一的未來，而政治家的原型就是漢代的劉邦。

編者注：

外國曆史學家的言論似乎值得中國人深思。當我們中國人看不起自己的中國文化時，當我們中國人不當地貶低自己時，外國人就看不到我們的文化和我們曆史上的優秀之處，甚至在他們眼中的文化可能會統一整個世界。

然而回想起來，我們中國人對自己的文化又了解多少？反對儒家，好像連儒家經典都沒讀過；反對佛教，認識似乎隻停留在宗教上，而未能看到佛教人生觀的分析；反對傳統文化。就是蟬的傳統文化不知道是什麽，就因為反對所以反對，說一點道理。

你為什麽不以平靜的心情，靜靜地了解我們的文化呢？誰反對，必有強烈的反對者，有理由接受時代的奉承或恭維，認為儒學是廢物，必須自學儒家垃圾 第123條，要說服別人，如果隻有無理論證，隻是在上麵儒家帽子一頂，沒人會相信。反對佛教也是如此。有哲學家說過，佛教哲學是最美的哲學。然而，在這個哲學論壇上，有很多人不能容忍佛教哲學。哲學不應該是排他性的

好的哲學永遠是最好的。

在這裏，我想說：作為我們中國人，但作為一個愛好哲學的中國人，必須要對其曆史和文化史有一個很好的認識，而不是站在批判的起點上，曆史文化研究就是批判，這不好。先生。錢慕偉說：“研究我們民族的曆史文化，應該有一些溫情。在我看來，在現在的中國，隻要能做到這一點，就已經很好了，溫暖在很多人看來是很難實現的。當然，這並不是說曆史不需要批評，但也並非如此。批判的標準，是建立在這一點的基礎上的，而要達到這一點，就必須建立在對自己的曆史和文化的理解或洞察的基礎上，而不是他人的、或感性的判斷。總之，我們必須有良好的曆史觀，要能夠準確地回顧和研究民族曆史文化，要能夠從曆史文化中提煉出可以對中國有關黨派進行係統總結的哲學思想。

阿諾德·約瑟夫·湯因比（Arnold Joseph Toynbe，1889—1975）是英國著名曆史學家。湯因比對曆史有著獨特的眼光，他的12本曆史研究著作講述了世界上各個主要民族的興衰。被稱為“現代學者最偉大的成就”。因為他的叔叔是一位專門研究經濟發展史的曆史學家，也叫阿諾德·湯因比（Arnold Toynbee，1852—1883），為了區分兩者，人們通常稱呼兩人的全名，以免混淆。

Toynbee predicts: Chinese culture will unify the world

November 26, 2016
http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html

Arnold Toynbe is a famous English historian. His 20 volume masterpiece "historical research" and Spengler's "decline of the west" and the "Rome gibbon early rise and fall" in parallel, is called "the giant History Museum, is the most famous contemporary American philosophy professor Li Weiyu of human civilization through the heritage of the" most and most sustained meditation". He and Spengler have the same thing: they both have insight into the decline of Western civilization in twentieth Century. But he did not like Spengler, depicts a terrible hopeless prospect for the west, he tries to salvation spirit of Christ to save the west. His research was inherited from British empiricism, and his core ideas were influenced by the French philosopher Bergson, whose inspiration came from Gerd of germany. His early studies of ancient Rome led to the idea of a global integration that convinced him of the unity of human beings and was thus called a "global unified prophet"". Below, I will extract from his old age and Japanese social activist Ikeda co authored the dialogue: "outlook twenty-first Century", take a look at how he predicted the unity of the world:

The virtue of the Chinese nation has continued to function in the humiliating century. This kind of virtue is also embodied in the activities of overseas Chinese people who have migrated to different parts of the world.

East Asia has many historical legacies, which can make it the unifying geographical and cultural axis of the world. In my opinion, these heritages have the following aspects:

First, the experience of the Chinese nation. In the past twenty-one centuries, China has maintained an empire all over the world and has been an example of a truly regional country.

Second, in the long course of Chinese history, the Chinese nation gradually cultivated the spirit of the world.

Third, humanism in the Confucian worldview.

Fourth, the rationalism of Confucianism and buddhism.

Fifth, East Asians are sensitive to the mystery of the universe, and believe that the universe will be defeated if it wants to dominate it. I think this is the most precious sense of taoism.

Sixth, this intuition is Buddhism, Taoism and Chinese all genres of Philosophy (except today extinct Legalists) have in common. The aim of man is not to dominate the nature beyond his own conceit, but to have a belief that he must live in harmony with nature.

Seventh, in the past, in military and non military two areas, science was applied to the modern competition of technology, while the Westerners were dominant, but East Asian countries could defeat them. The Japanese have proved it.

Eighth, the courage of the Japanese and Vietnamese to dare to challenge the west. This courage will continue in the future, but I hope that in the next stage of human history, it can contribute to the constructive cause of solving human problems.

In the modern world, I have personally learned that the Chinese are competent for any profession and that they can maintain a high standard of family life. The Chinese are able to hold on to this virtue no matter when the country is declining or when it is actually in turmoil.

It is probably not the Western European countries, nor the countries of Western Europe, but China that will unify the world in the future. And because China has such a political signal for future political missions, China has an amazing prestige in the world today. China's unified government in the past two thousand and two hundred years, in addition to a very short period of time, has been politically hundreds of millions of people unified as a whole. Moreover, a unified China is recognized in the political sovereignty of all protected states. The influence of culture even permeates far away regions, what is called the kingdom of china". As a matter of fact, China has been the center of half the world since almost 221 bc. In the last five hundred years, the world has been united in every field of politics and in the west. I am afraid it is China's destiny to bring more than half the world and bring political unity and peace to the world as a whole.

As for the past China, Napoleon said, "don't wake the sleeping giant."". The English defeated Napoleon and immediately launched the Opium War, which awakened china.

What role will China play in human society in the future?

Because of the expansion and temporary rule of the Western Ethnic forces, the earth human society has been rid of this ruling power and will continue in the future. In the last row into the earth in the human society, China just stay in the three countries, one of the five powers or more powerful position? Or become the world's "the kingdom", is the future of the China mission?

This is a matter of concern for all mankind, especially the Soviet Union and Japan, which are closer to china. The United States can withdraw from the East Asian mainland coast and the sea islands to Guam, and then withdraw from Hawaii. Once needed to be withdrawn to the west coast of the United States, the United States and China can be separated from the entire Pacific ocean. But today, simply geographical distance is no longer important. The invention of rockets led to the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean as narrow as a stream. All countries, including China, are within each other's straight-line range. That's the reality of today.
So, in my opinion, when all mankind grows into a single society, it may be the day of world unification. Today in the atomic age, this unified conquest by force - the traditional way of unifying the vast part of the earth - has been hard to do. At the same time, the peaceful reunification that I foresee must be centered on the geographical and cultural axis and continuously crystallized and expanded. I have a hunch that this axis is not in the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union, but in East asia.

East Asia, consisting of China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, has a large population. The vitality, the diligence, the courage, the wisdom of these nations are no less than those of any other nation in the world. From the geographical point of view, this is from the common heritage of Chinese culture and Buddhist point of view, or from the outside of modern western civilization had to compromise this common problem, they are connected in a bond. And as far as the Chinese are concerned, thousands of years have succeeded in uniting hundreds of millions of people from the political and cultural world, than any other nation in the world. They demonstrate the ability to be politically and culturally unified and have unparalleled success. Such unification is the absolute requirement of the world today. The reason why the Chinese and the East Asian peoples are cooperative, in the process of human unification which is considered as indispensable and inevitable, may play a leading role, and the reason lies here.

If I speculate that there is no mistake, it is estimated that the unification of the world will be realized in peace. This is the only feasible road in the atomic age. However, although it is the Chinese nation, it is not peaceful at any time. In the Warring States period, as in ancient Greece and modern Europe, there were also divisions and struggles. However, after the Han Dynasty, the belligerent spirit of the Warring States period was abandoned. The founding emperor of the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang, completed the unification of China as far back as 202 bc.

Before that, the political unity of the first emperor was accomplished by force. Therefore, after his death, there appeared a place of nationalism restoration. In the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang kept the balance of Chinese national feelings from the local decentralization to the cosmopolitanism. Contrary to Qin Shihuang's actions of charm and despotism, he skillfully used his life to accomplish the cause.

Those who will unify the world in the future must be cosmopolitan, just as the second rulers of China have achieved greater success. At the same time, the ability to achieve the ultimate goal is required. The unification of the world is the way to avoid human collective suicide. In this respect, what is best prepared now is the Chinese people who have developed a unique way of thinking in the past two thousand years. Not in half the world, but in the whole earth where people can live or socialize. A unified future must be achieved, and the original model of the statesman is Liu Bang of the Han dynasty.

Editor's note:

The speech of foreign historians should seem to be worth pondering by chinese. When we look down on their own Chinese Chinese culture, when we Chinese their own history improperly belittle oneself, foreigners can see our culture and our history of outstanding place, even in the eyes of the culture they may unify the whole world.

However, looking back, we Chinese in their own culture and know how many? Against Confucianism, it seems that even the Confucian classics have not read; oppose Buddhism, understanding just seems to only stay in religious, but failed to see the Buddhist outlook on life analysis; against the traditional culture. It is the traditional culture of the cicadas do not know what, just because the opposition so opposed, say a little truth.

Why don't you in a calm mood, quietly understand our culture? Who oppose, there must be a strong opposition who reason to receive flattery or compliment of the era, that Confucianism is a waste, must study by oneself say a Confucian garbage 123th, to convince others, if only no argument argument, just on a top hat Confucian a top, no one will believe. The same is true against buddhism. Some philosophers have said that Buddhist philosophy is the most beautiful philosophy. However, there are many people who can not tolerate Buddhist philosophy in this philosophical forum. Philosophy should not be exclusive, and good philosophy is always the best.

Here, I want to say: as we Chinese, but as a hobby of philosophy Chinese, must have a sound understanding of its history and culture history, rather than standing on the starting point of criticism, historical and cultural studies is to criticize, this is not good. Mr. Qian Muwei said: "there should be some warmth in studying the history and culture of our nation.". In my view, in the present China, as long as it can be done to the point, it has been very good, warmth seems to be difficult to achieve among many people. Of course, this is not to say that history does not need to be criticized, but not so. The critical criteria, is established on the basis of the point, and to achieve this point, is must be established on the basis of understanding or insight on their own history and culture, and not others, or sense judgment. In short, we must have a good view of history, to be able to accurately review and study of national history and culture, to be able to extract from the history and culture of the system can China involved party summary on philosophy.

Arnold Joseph Toynbe (Arnold Joseph Toynbee, 1889 - 1975) was a famous British historian, he was known as "the greatest historian in modern times". Toynbee has a unique vision of history, and his 12 book, historical studies, tells the rise and decline of all the major nations in the world. It is called "the greatest achievement of modern scholars"". Because his uncle is a historian specializing in the history of economic development, also called Arnold Toynbe (Arnold Toynbee, 1852 - 1883), in order to distinguish between the two, people usually call the two person's full name, to avoid confusion.