風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
特朗普正麵臨與中國的失敗關稅戰
彭博原創
2024年11月8日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB9jBpX1yx8
美國和中國陷入了爭奪科技霸權的戰鬥，這對唐納德·特朗普來說將是一個重大挑戰。多年的關稅、出口管製和金融製裁並沒有減緩習近平對主導地位的追求。中國已成為電動汽車和太陽能等行業的世界領先者，並在其他行業迎頭趕上。但即使美國尚未成功絆倒中國，也沒有跡象表明它會停止嚐試。
@wingmay8571 2天前
我是一名工程師，自1991年以來一直在美國一家高科技航空技術公司工作。我的大多數同事都是亞洲人。他們都是受過高等教育的專業人士。我們不得不從中國購買大量設備，因為美國沒有我們需要的設備。當有人購買美國國旗時，它是中國製造的。
@wingmay8571 2天前
I am an engineer and working for a high tech aviation technology company in America since 1991. Most of my co-workers are Asian. They are highly educated professionals. We have to buy a lot of equipment from China because America doesn't have the equipment we need. When someone buys an American flag, it is made in China.
@Rainer86 1天前（修改過）
我永遠無法理解對全球人力資源分配和再利用的漠視。作為客戶，我們從中國和其他國家提供的物美價廉的商品中受益。另一方麵，這些國家的人民也受益匪淺，因為數百萬人已經擺脫了貧困。如果我們最終要為這些產品支付更高的價格，那麽在美國生產衣服、廚房用具和玩具有什麽好處呢？相反，我們應該專注於在美國開發先進技術。政客們經常用愛國主義來掩飾自己的議程。事實上，這些心胸狹隘的政客正在阻礙人類的進步。
@Rainer86 1天前（修改過）
I can never understand the disregard for the global distribution and reutilization of human resources. As customers, we benefit from China and other countries that provide affordable, high-quality goods. On the other hand, people in those countries also benefit, as millions have been lifted out of poverty. What’s the benefit of making clothes, kitchen appliances, and toys in America when we end up paying higher prices for them? Instead, we should focus on developing advanced technology in the U.S. Politicians often use patriotism as a disguise for their own agendas. Indeed, these narrow-minded politicians are hindering the progress of humankind.
@jhouck1969 1天前
對所有進口商品征收200%的關稅將使所有商品的價格上漲三倍，包括依賴從世界各地進口材料的國內產品。此外，還要圍捕1100萬移民，讓他們脫離勞動力隊伍，還要花錢為他們提供住房和食物，同時還要努力將他們驅逐出境。如果你認為過去幾年的通貨膨脹很糟糕，那就等著看所有這些出色的政策生效吧……
@jhouck1969 1天前
A 200% tariff on all imports will make the cost of everything three times more expensive, including domestic products that rely on materials imported from around the world. Add to that the idea of rounding up 11 million immigrants, taking them out of the workforce and costing money to house and feed them while working to deport them. If you thought inflation was bad the past few years, wait until all these brilliant policies take effect...
@jesselee3391 4天前（修改過）
看來美國沒有通過經濟學入門課程。關稅降低了整個經濟的效率。我們缺少提供重要服務的工人——從醫療保健到供不應求的房屋建設。我們最不需要的就是將這些工人重新部署到裝配線上，讓產品變得更貴！當然，保護微芯片和稀土等關鍵行業。然而，讓昂貴的美國工人製造運動鞋和兒童玩具是沒有意義的。還是不相信？好吧，看看孤立主義對英國的影響……
@jesselee3391 4天前（修改過）
It appears the United States failed Economics 101. Tariffs make the economy as a whole less efficient. We are short on workers to deliver important services - from healthcare to the construction of homes in short supply. The last thing we need is to redeploy those workers onto assembly lines to make stuff more expensive! Sure, protect critical industries like micro chips and rare earths. However, it makes no sense to have expensive American workers making sneakers and kids toys. Still not convinced? Well, see how isolationism is working out for the UK....
@Chicago48 4天前
大約十年前，我在一所常春藤盟校工作並獲得博士學位。科學項目由來自中國和印度的約70%的亞洲學生組成。 他們中的許多人沒有留在美國，而是回國發展自己的國家經濟。 或者他們在美國科技公司工作，學習和磨練自己的技能，然後帶著知識回到亞洲。 我知道伊利諾伊州有一所大學一定有1/2的學生來自中國，我相信其他IVY學校也是如此。
如果不去美國大學，亞洲人就會去加拿大和英國的大學。 這些大學依賴外國學生。
@Chicago48 4天前
About 10 years ago I worked for an Ivy league university and the Ph.D. science programs consisted of about 70% Asian students from China, India. Many of them didn't stay in the US but went home and built up their country economies. Or they worked for the US tech companies, learned and honed their skills and then went back to Asia with the knowledge. I know there's an Illinois university that must have 1/2 its students from China, and I'm sure it's the same with the other IVY schools.
If not the US universities, the Asians will go to Canadian and English universities. These universities depend on foreign students.
@dannyseville2543 4天前
不僅限於中國，但特朗普說的讓我發笑的是世界不再購買美國汽車。特斯拉在全球範圍內的表現還不錯，通用汽車（蛋白石/沃克斯豪爾）並不是一個像樣的品牌，福特確實在削減其產品組合，而大多數其他美國品牌在美國以外的市場供應有限。
科技——除了價格過高的蘋果之外，現在還有什麽其他國家沒有更好的選擇呢？
食品 - 也許如果他們的標準更好，他們可能會進行更好的貿易。
@dannyseville2543 4天前
Not particularly limited to China but something that Trump said that made me laugh was about the world isn't buying American cars. Tesla ain't doing too bad globally, gm (opal / vauxhall) aren't exactly a decent brand, ford are really cutting back on their portfolio and most other american brands have limited availability outside of the US.
Tech - aside from the overpriced Apple, what else is there now that doesn't have better options from other countries?
Food - maybe if their standards were better, they might do better trade.
@hongdeli6148 36秒鍾前
即使所有進口產品都征收300%的關稅，但還是會在中國製造。因為很多產品的生產已經自動化、機械化了，其他國家就生產不了，而其他國家沒有中國這樣的全球市場空間，根本賺不到錢。
@hongdeli6148 6分鍾前
美國偉大的偉大之處在於，現在什麽也做不了。
@hongdeli6148 36秒鍾前
Even if 300% tariff on all imports; but it will still made in China. Because the production of many products has been automated and mechanized, other countries cannot produce them, and other countries do not have the global market space that China has. They simply cannot make a profit.
@hongdeli6148 6分鍾前
The great of the great USA is that the graet is that can do nothing now.
在他的連任競選中，毫無疑問，他對美國霸權的野心仍然是他的北極星。我們將雇用美國人，購買美國產品，建設美國，發展美國，並向全世界展示美國夢又回來了。但在離開橢圓形辦公室四年後，特朗普回來麵對的是一個更加大膽、更加精明的中國，而美國可能已經在遏製中國方麵失敗了。解決這個問題很可能是特朗普在與中國四年攤牌之後的主要情節之一。謝謝，謝謝。
讓我們倒退一秒鍾。中國進口 2001 年中國加入世界貿易組織，標誌著全球經濟進入新紀元。貿易壁壘降低，中國得以向全球出口廉價玩具、T 恤和電視機，出口熱潮幫助數億中國人躋身中產階級。然後，在中國，發生了兩件關鍵事件。我正式競選美國總統。同年，中國正式公布了一項十年計劃，旨在通過尖端創新升級其蓬勃發展的出口經濟。“中國製造 2025”本質上是習近平主席的願景，旨在確保中國成為全球技術領軍者。從本質上講，這實際上是確保中國的國家安全目標是其政策製定的核心。這種宏偉抱負將激勵曆屆美國總統采取行動。
這是第一點，但這隻是眾多計劃中的第一個。美國為遏製中國經濟增長而采取的關稅和限製措施始於特朗普政府的關稅和一些貿易政策。基本上，他們試圖提高中國公司向美國銷售產品的成本，從而糾正巨大的貿易逆差。當一個國家從一個國家的進口量超過向這個國家的出口量時，就會出現這種不平衡。
拜登總統推遲決定取消特朗普時代對中國進口產品征收的任何關稅。你可以看到這在 2023 年產生了影響。赤字縮減至 2010 年以來的最小總額，反映了從中國進口的下降。但在全球範圍內，中國的生產能力正處於曆史最高水平。自二戰後美國以來，中國製成品貿易順差占全球 GDP 的比例是任何國家中最大的。特朗普還出台了控製美國製造商以及一些盟國經濟體高科技出口的政策，這些政策被拜登政府收緊。
因此，這實際上使得將美國商品或美國技術轉移到中國變得不可能或更加困難。美國政府阻止華為向美國出售其大部分電信設備，然後又更進一步。它聯係了世界各地的許多盟友，試圖說服他們也不要讓華為向他們的國家出售設備。這給他們帶來了各種各樣的問題。2022 年，他們限製了中國獲得最先進半導體的能力，包括用於訓練 ChatGPT 等模型的 AI 芯片。他們還限製了該國獲得芯片製造設備的能力，包括製造驅動智能手機的最先進芯片的機器，以及人工智能和量子計算。
大型設備，例如荷蘭公司 ASML 開發的這些極紫外光刻機。這些限製還旨在阻止中國科技巨頭開發任何可能威脅美國軍事優勢的東西，這一擔憂長期以來一直與華盛頓的經濟戰略交織在一起。在半導體和這些非常敏感的技術方麵，中國仍然落後於美國。所以我們看到了一些有效的在那裏，美國是可以做到的。但數據顯示，美國主導的出口管製產生了意想不到的副作用。它們迫使中國變得更加自力更生，政府支持並投資於自己的科學家和研究人員。
他們非常積極地申請專利，他們認為這些專利將幫助他們發展對其未來至關重要的國內產業。當國家主席習近平在中國將某件事作為優先事項時，他可以指出銀行提供廉價融資。他可以指出國有企業全力支持該部門或行業。
例如，上海微電子裝備等公司的支持者擁有先進的光刻機，被認為是中國與 ASML 競爭的最佳選擇。在這一點上，我認為每個人都認為他們距離能夠與 ASML 在行業巔峰地位相匹敵還有許多年的時間。但他們正在為此投入數十億美元，他們決心盡可能縮小差距。
2023 年，當我們發布 Mate 60 時，或者更準確地說，彭博新聞社委托一家研究公司拆解了一部手機，這證明了中國半導體生態係統正在擴大。手機內部的半導體比任何人想象的都要強大得多。這表明，中國不是落後美國 8 年或 10 年。實際上，中國落後美國 4 到 5 年。但交叉應用才是 DC 真正擔心的，如果我們可以對手機這樣的消費產品做到這一點，那麽對用於軍事應用和其他領域的更敏感的技術也同樣容易做到這一點。
中國確實已經衝在前麵，占據了領先地位。看看這張圖表。你可以看到，中國在許多高科技出口產品中的市場份額正在增長，尤其是電動汽車。盡管美國征收關稅，限製技術獲取。歸根結底，人們認為貿易總能順利進行。
這就是我們在思考中國電動汽車行業時看到的情況。例如，比亞迪這樣的大型電動汽車製造商已經通過在泰國、匈牙利和巴西等地建廠來規避一些潛在的限製。
特朗普希望進一步限製中國電動汽車和電池的進口。在他的第二任期內，他可能會試圖履行一項保護美國汽車製造商的競選承諾。
我將征收任何需要的關稅，100%、200%、1000%。特朗普的第二任期他們不會向美國出售一輛汽車。華盛頓擔心的是，電動汽車及其背後的一些軟件將能夠收集個人信息，並可能與中國政府共享，或者至少與參與製造這些汽車的公司共享。北京強烈反對這種言論。那麽，兩屆美國政府是否以特朗普最初打算的方式阻礙了中國？似乎並非如此。
彭博社追蹤的“中國製造 2025”目標中，絕大多數已經實現或即將實現。關稅有助於減少美國與其競爭對手的貿易逆差。但正如我們之前所看到的，關稅並沒有阻止中國擴大其他地區的出口。盡管美國可能在某些領域（如先進芯片製造）減緩了北京的進步，但總體而言，習近平的產業政策正在成功提升中國的技術能力。但即使美國尚未成功打倒中國，也沒有人認為特朗普第二屆政府會停止嚐試。
如果你看看地緣政治格局，我認為很明顯，美國將繼續對他們的生活施加壓力，要求實施更多限製。特朗普與中國第一次對抗的後續結果如何，尚待書寫。但如果你聽特朗普的話，很明顯，讓美國保持領先地位是他的最終目標。我們可以做別人做不到的事情。
中國沒有我們所擁有的東西。沒有人擁有我們所擁有的東西。
Trump Is Facing a Losing Tariff War With China
Bloomberg Originals 2024年11月8日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB9jBpX1yx8
The US and China are locked in a battle for tech supremacy, and it’s set to be a major challenge for Donald Trump. Years of tariffs, export controls and financial sanctions have done little to slow Xi Jinping’s quest for dominance. China has become a world leader in industries like electric vehicles and solar power, and it's catching up in others. But even though the US hasn’t managed to trip China up yet, there’s no sign it's going to stop trying.
Introduction
It's official Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States. Donald Trump's first presidency gave Washington a playbook of hardline tactics for preventing China from overtaking the US as the world's dominant economic and technological power.
Trump introduced punitive tariffs on China, as well as trying to rebalance the trade deficit to try and contain China's economic rise, as well as trying to contain its military might.
To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. Trump is focused on raising tariffs to prevent China from shipping many of their goods into the United States that perhaps are subsidized by the government.
In his campaign for reelection, left no doubt that his ambition for American supremacy was still his North Star. We will hire American, buy American, build American, grow American, and show the whole world that the American dream is back.But after four years out of the Oval Office, Trump is returning to face an emboldened, savvier China and one the US may already be losing its battle to contain.
Tackling that is likely to be one of Trump's primary plotlines in the sequel to his first four year showdown with China. Thank you, thank you. Let's rewind for a second.
Chinese imports When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it marked a new era in global economics.
Lower trade barriers allowed China to ship cheap toys, t-shirts and TVs around the globe, and an export bonanza that helped lift hundreds of millions of Chinese into the middle class. Then around here, two pivotal events occurred. I am officially running for president of the United States. And that same year, China officially revealed a 10-year plan to upgrade its thriving export economy with cutting edge innovations. 'Made in China 2025' is essentially President XI Jinping's vision to secure China's place in the world as a preeminent global technological leader. At its heart, it's really about ensuring that China's national security goals are at the heart of its policymaking. It's the kind of grand ambition that would galvanize successive US presidents into taking action.
This is number one, but this is the first of many. The US Tariffs and restrictions
efforts to contain China's growth began with tariffs and some of the trade policies in the Trump administration. Basically, they sought to make it more expensive for Chinese companies to sell to the US and consequently redress a massive trade deficit.The imbalance that occurs when the nation imports more from a country than it exports to it.
President Biden is holding back on a decision to scrap any Trump era tariffs on China imports. You could see this has had an impact in 2023. The deficit shrank to the smallest total since 2010, reflecting a decline in imports shipped from China. But globally, China's productive prowess is at historic heights. Its manufactured goods trade surplus is the largest relative to global GDP of any country since the US right after World War two.
Trump also introduced policies to control high-tech exports from US manufacturers,
as well as those of some allied economies, which were tightened by the Biden administration.
So that essentially makes it impossible or much harder to transfer US goods or US technologies into China. The US government stopped Huawei from being able to sell much of its telecom equipment into the United States, and then it went even a step further.
It went to many of its allies around the world and tried to persuade them also to not let Huawei sell its equipment into their countries. That caused all sorts of problems for them.
In 2022, they constrained China's ability to get the most advanced semiconductors out there, including AI chips that would be used to train models like ChatGPT. They also constrained the country's ability to get chipmaking equipment, including the machines that make the most advanced chips that drive smartphones, and also AI and quantum computing.
Massive appliances like these extreme ultraviolet lithography machines developed by Dutch company ASML. The constraints are also intended to hinder China's tech giants from developing anything that could threaten America's military superiority, a concern long intertwined with Washington's economic strategy. In terms of semiconductors and these really sensitive technologies, China is still lagging behind the US. So we have seen some efficacy there. But the data shows US-led export controls had an unintended side effect.
They forced China to become more self-reliant Government support and invest in its own scientists and researchers.
They've been very aggressive in applying for patents that they think are going to help them develop domestic industries that are critical to their future. When President X Jinping makes something a priority in China, he can point to banks to provide cheap financing. He can point to state owned enterprises to throw their full weight
behind, backing that certain sector or industry.
For instance, backers of companies like Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment,considered China's best bet for competing with ASML, has advanced lithography machines. At this point, I think everybody believes that they're many years away from being able to match ASML at the pinnacle of the industry. But they're pouring billions and billions of dollars into this effort, and they're very determined to be able to close the gap as much as they possibly can.
Evidence that China's semiconductor ecosystem was expanding emerged in 2023, when, while we released the Mate 60, or more precisely when Bloomberg News commissioned a research firm to take one apart. Inside that phone was a semiconductor that was much more powerful than anybody thought China could make on its own. It suggested, instead of being 8 or 10 years behind the US. Actually, China was 4 to 5 years behind the US. But the cross application is what really worries DC that if we can do this with a consumer product like a phone, it's just as easy to do this with much more sensitive technology that's used for military applications and other areas.
China really has charged ahead to take a lead. Take a look at this chart. You can see China's market share of many high-tech exports growing, particularly EVs. Despite US tariffs and restrictions on access to technology.Ultimately, there is this idea that trade always gets through.
And that's sort of what we see when we think about the EV industry in China. So for example, a big EV automaker like BYD is already getting around some of these potential restrictions by building factories in places like Thailand, in Hungary and in Brazil.
Trump wants to further limit imports of Chinese EVs and batteries. And in his second term, may try to fulfill a popular campaign pledge to protect US carmakers.
I will impose whatever tariffs are required 100%, 200%, 1,000%. Trump’s second term They're not going to sell one car into the United States. The concern in Washington is that the electric vehicles and some of the software behind them would be able to collect personal information and perhaps share it with the Chinese government, or at least with the companies that are involved in making those vehicles. It's the kind of rhetoric Beijing has vehemently rejected. so have two U.S. administrations hindered China in ways Trump initially intended? It doesn't appear so.
The vast majority of 'Made in China 2025' targets that Bloomberg tracks actually have been achieved or are on track to be achieved. Tariffs have helped cut America's trade deficit with its rival. But as we saw earlier,they haven't prevented China from boosting exports elsewhere. And while the US may have slowed Beijing's progress in some areas,like advanced chipmaking, overall, Xi Jinping's industrial policies are successfully advancing China's technological capabilities. But even if the US hasn't managed to trip China yet, nobody expects a second Trump administration to stop trying.
If you look at the geopolitical, landscape, I think it's clear that the United States will continue to apply pressure on their life for more restriction. How the sequel to Trump's first confrontation with China will play out is yet to be written. But if you listen to Trump, it's clear that keeping America on top is his ultimate goal. We can do things that nobody else can do.
China doesn't have what we have. Nobody has what we have.
