烏襲擊俄發電廠損害了普京的戰爭努力

分析人士稱烏克蘭襲擊俄羅斯發電廠損害了普京的戰爭努力

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2024/09/01/analysts-say-ukraine-strikes-on-russian-power-plants-hurt-putins-war-effort/

作者：Ken Silverstein 高級撰稿人，報道全球能源和氣候問題

烏克蘭無人機襲擊莫斯科烏克蘭無人機襲擊了科納科沃發電站附近。

共產主義和壓迫導致蘇聯於 1989 年解體。但其棺材上的最後一顆釘子是與阿富汗的戰爭，這場戰爭從 1979 年持續到 1989 年。事實上，這場衝突耗盡了帝國日益減少的金庫和人民的精力——這場戰鬥主要是與征兵進行的。

今天，曆史正在重演。蘇聯已經解體，但俄羅斯目前與烏克蘭的戰爭卻讓人想起了過去。縱觀曆史，社會始終選擇自由而不是極權主義。烏克蘭人決心不再生活在封閉的專製體製下。為了取得勝利，他們實際上瞄準了俄羅斯境內的能源基礎設施。
“烏克蘭人可以贏得這場戰爭，我們看到了這一點，”歐洲政策分析中心民主研究員埃琳娜·貝克托娃 (Elina Beketova) 在一次虛擬新聞發布會上說。

有趣的是，普京幾個月前表示，俄羅斯擁有 70 萬軍隊，可以比西方更持久。現實情況是，俄羅斯正在使用訓練不足的征兵。現在，每個人都知道烏克蘭軍隊如何直接進入烏克蘭蘇梅地區北部的俄羅斯領土。征兵剛剛投降。

回想一下 1968 年 8 月，當時捷克斯洛伐克人試圖擺脫蘇聯的控製。俄羅斯人使用捷克坦克平息了叛亂。但快進到 2024 年 8 月。類似的坦克從烏克蘭駛入俄羅斯，占領了庫爾斯克地區。烏克蘭軍隊控製著該地區至少 60 平方公裏的土地和 93 個定居點。

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普京正在猛烈抨擊。作為一種軟弱的表現，他經常吹噓俄羅斯擁有核武器。鑒於西方正在為烏克蘭提供軍事支持，而且烏克蘭也擁有核武庫，俄羅斯領導人的選擇有限。“這意味著俄羅斯的獨裁政權不那麽強大或可持續，”智庫高級研究員 Pavel Luzin 說。

毫無疑問，俄羅斯繼續打擊烏克蘭。8 月底，俄羅斯向該國派遣了一波無人機，襲擊了其能源基礎設施——這是幾個月來最大的此類襲擊。烏克蘭最大的私營能源公司 DTEK 已損失近 90% 的發電能力，損失約 500 億美元。 DTEK 為烏克蘭提供 20% 的電力

報複性打擊

俄羅斯軍隊夜間用無人機襲擊哈爾科夫

烏克蘭總統澤連斯基呼籲西方盟友向該國提供遠程武器以保護其公民。昨晚，烏克蘭用無人機襲擊了莫斯科的一座發電廠。它還襲擊了油庫和煉油廠。歐洲政策分析中心跨大西洋防禦計劃高級研究員 Nico Lange 說：“烏克蘭現在有了選擇，因為它在這次入侵的初始階段取得了成功。”

2020 年，俄羅斯的石油和天然氣收入達 2190 億美元。這兩個行業合計占俄羅斯出口的 60% 和聯邦預算的 40%。普京試圖通過減少對歐洲的天然氣出口和提高價格來展示俄羅斯的能源實力。俄羅斯每天通過在全球銷售石油和天然氣賺取 5 億至 10 億美元，以資助其對烏克蘭的戰爭。

烏克蘭的舉措適得其反。它不僅失去了全球市場份額，而且英國石油公司、殼牌公司、埃克森美孚公司和 Equinor 也縮減了在俄羅斯的業務。與此同時，烏克蘭擁有歐洲第三大天然氣儲量。盡管它在 20 世紀 60 年代和 70 年代生產了 700 億立方米天然氣，但由於俄羅斯將生產轉移到西伯利亞，1991 年產量減少了一半以上。烏克蘭國家石油天然氣公司表示，它可以加大力度，為歐洲提供燃料。

“兩年前，歐洲天然氣價格飆升，”該智庫高級研究員愛德華·盧卡斯說。“但現在它們略高於戰前的水平。這有點像俄羅斯的核武器——一隻不叫的狗。”

高級研究員盧津指出，烏克蘭對燃料儲存設施和變電站的襲擊是報複性的，目的是讓俄羅斯人嚐嚐自己的苦頭。俄羅斯的電網已經很脆弱，需要現代技術來提高彈性。這些襲擊，加上其電網的脆弱性，預計將給俄羅斯人民帶來今年冬天的巨大痛苦，甚至可能比烏克蘭人民所經曆的苦難還要嚴重。

最引人注目的問題是俄羅斯獨裁政權能否生存下去。如果俄羅斯失敗，公眾和政治精英的不滿情緒可能會增加。反對

持續的經濟製裁和軍事損失可能會進一步加劇俄羅斯的壓力，從而為政府內部的政治反對派或派係挑戰普京的領導地位創造機會。

烏克蘭武裝部隊表示，截至 8 月 31 日，俄羅斯損失了 615,000 名士兵和 368 架飛機。

戰爭的代價

俄羅斯-烏克蘭-衝突-安全

想想看，美國的國內生產總值約為 27 萬億美元——一個高度多元化的經濟。中國的國內生產總值為 18 萬億美元。俄羅斯的經濟規模要小得多：2.3 萬億美元，而且嚴重依賴石油和天然氣出口。這些錢大部分都用於資助戰爭——而不是支持俄羅斯社會。俄羅斯的動蕩正在暗流湧動。

蘇聯解體時，世界歡迎俄羅斯及其衛星國加入全球社會。市場向俄羅斯開放。但普京對烏克蘭的戰爭改變了這一切。更糟糕的是，該政權逆轉了該國的民主進步。現在，任何批評普京或國家的人都會被監禁或殺害。

雖然普京希望因恢複蘇聯領土和自豪感而聞名，但作家安妮·阿普爾鮑姆說，俄羅斯人會記住他是摧毀這個國家的人。她的書《獨裁公司》中說，他回避普通公民的利益。

“他們隻是他的炮灰，”她告訴自由歐洲電台。阿富汗和現在的烏克蘭都是這樣。如果我們聽普京的副手的話，他們盯著波羅的海國家，認為波蘭是他們永遠的敵人。因此，烏克蘭贏得這場戰爭至關重要。

“軍事失敗可能會為國家自我反省或重大變革創造一個真正的機會，就像俄羅斯過去經常做的那樣，”她寫道。“隻有失敗才能說服俄羅斯人自己質疑殖民意識形態的意義和目的，這種意識形態幾十年來一再使他們自己的經濟和社會以及鄰國的經濟和社會陷入貧困和毀滅。”

那麽，這場戰爭將如何結束？烏克蘭總統澤連斯基認為，他的國家必須通過升級來緩和局勢，這一策略包括奪取俄羅斯土地，同時奪取俄羅斯關鍵的能源資產。然而，普京相信他可以贏得這場消耗戰。但代價是什麽？

這種情況持續的時間越長，俄羅斯就會變得越貧窮，看起來就越無力。這可能會賦予人民權力，推翻獨裁者。

Analysts Say Ukraine Strikes On Russian Power Plants Hurt Putin's War Effort

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2024/09/01/analysts-say-ukraine-strikes-on-russian-power-plants-hurt-putins-war-effort/

By Ken Silverstein Senior Contributor， covers global energy and climate issues

 

Ukrainian drones hit near the Konakovo Power Station. 

 

Communism and oppression led to the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1989. But the final nail in its coffin was its war with Afghanistan, which lasted from 1979 to 1989. Indeed, the conflict drained the empire’s dwindling coffers and the people’s energies — a battle fought mainly with conscripts.

 

Today, history is repeating itself. The Soviet Union has collapsed, but Russia's current war against Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the past. Throughout history, societies have consistently chosen freedom over totalitarianism. Ukrainians are determined to never again live in a closed, authoritarian system. To achieve victory, they are effectively targeting Russia's energy infrastructure deep inside the country.

“Ukrainians can win this war, and we see it,” says Elina Beketova, democracy fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, at a virtual press event.

Interestingly, Putin said a few months ago that Russia has 700,000 troops and could outlast the West. The reality is that Russia is using poorly trained conscripts. By now, everyone is familiar with how Ukrainian troops marched straight into Russian territory just north of Ukraine’s Sumy region. The conscripts just surrendered.

Think back to August 1968, when the Czechoslovakians tried to break free of the Soviet’s grasp. Russians used Czech tanks to quell the rebellion. But fast-forward to August 2024. Similar tanks are rolling out of Ukraine and into Russia, taking over the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces control at least 60 square kilometers and 93 settlements in this area.

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Putin is lashing out. In a sign of weakness, he routinely boasts that Russia has nuclear weapons. Given that the West is supplying Ukraine’s military and it, too, has a nuclear arsenal, the Russian leader’s options are limited. “That means that the Russian authoritarian regime is not so strong or sustainable,” says Pavel Luzin, senior fellow with the think tank.

Undoubtedly, Russia continues to pummel Ukraine. In late August, it sent a wave of drones into the country, attacking its energy infrastructure— the biggest such assault in months. Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, has lost nearly 90% of its generating capacity, costing about $50 billion in damages. DTEK supplies 20% of Ukraine’s electricity

Retaliatory Strikes

Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Western allies to give the country long-range weapons to defend its citizens. Last night, Ukraine hit a power plant in Moscow with drones. It is also striking oil depots and refineries. “Ukraine has options now because it was successful in the initial phase of this incursion,” says Nico Lange, senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Russia's oil and gas revenues amounted to $219 billion in 2020. Together, these two sectors account for 60% of Russia's exports and 40% of its federal budget. Putin attempted to flex Russia's energy power by reducing natural gas exports to Europe and increasing prices. Russia was earning between $500 million and $1 billion per day from selling oil and gas globally to fund its war against Ukraine.

It is backfiring. Not only is it losing global market share, but BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, and Equinor have also scaled back their Russian operations. Meanwhile, Ukraine possesses the third largest natural gas reserves in Europe. Although it produced 70 billion cubic meters in the 1960s and 1970s, this decreased by more than half in 1991 due to Russia shifting production to Siberia. Ukraine’s Naftogaz said it could step up and provide fuel to Europe.

“Two years ago, European gas prices spiked," says Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the think tank. “But now they are slightly above pre-war levels. It’s a little bit like Russia’s nuclear weapons — the dog that didn't bark.”

 

Senior Fellow Luzin points out that Ukrainian attacks on fuel storage facilities and electric substations are retaliatory, aiming to give Russians a taste of their own medicine. Russia's electricity network is already fragile and needs modern technologies to increase resiliency. These attacks, combined with the vulnerability of their electricity network, are expected to cause significant suffering for the Russian people this winter, possibly even more than the hardships experienced by the Ukrainian people.

The most compelling question is whether the Russian dictatorship will survive. If Russia loses, dissatisfaction among the public and political elites could increase. Continued economic sanctions and military losses may further strain Russia, potentially creating an opportunity for political opposition or factions within the government to challenge Putin's leadership.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces said as of August 31, the Russians have lost 615,000 soldiers and 368 planes.

The Cost Of War

Consider that the United States has a gross domestic product of about $27 trillion—a highly diversified economy. China’s GDP is $18 trillion. Russia’s economy is significantly smaller: $2.3 trillion and heavily dependent on oil and gas exports. Much of that money goes towards funding the war — not supporting Russian society. Russian unrest is bubbling beneath the surface.

When the Soviet Union fell, the world welcomed Russia and the satellite nations into the global community. Markets opened to Russia. But Putin’s war against Ukraine has changed that. Even worse, the regime has reversed the country’s democratic strides. Now, any critic of Putin or the state is imprisoned or killed.

While Putin wants to be known for restoring Soviet territory and pride, author Anne Applebaum said Russians will remember him as the one who destroyed the country. Her book Autocracy Inc. said that he shuns the interests of ordinary citizens.

“They are just cannon fodder to him,” she told RadioFreeEurope. That was the case in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. And if we listen to Putin’s deputies, they have their eye on the Baltic States and consider Poland their eternal enemy. It is, thus, crucial for Ukraine to win this war.

"A military loss could create a real opening for national self-examination or a major change, as it so often has done in Russia’s past,” she writes. “Only failure can persuade the Russians themselves to question the sense and purpose of a colonial ideology that has repeatedly impoverished and ruined their own economy and society, as well as those of their neighbors, for decades.”

So, how does this war end? Ukraine’s President Zelenksy thinks his country has to escalate to de-escalate, a tactic that involves taking Russian land while taking out critical Russian energy assets. However, Putin believes he can win the war of attrition. But at what cost?

The longer this goes on, the poorer Russia becomes and the more toothless it looks. That may empower the people and dethrone the dictator.