John Mearsheimer 中國是烏克蘭戰爭的真正贏家

約翰·米爾斯海默：中國是烏克蘭戰爭的真正贏家嗎？| 終局#136（Luminaries）

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl7goPRw_eE

Gita Wirjawan 2023年4月28日 

我認為我們今天在世界上麵臨的局勢比冷戰時期危險得多，現實主義者約翰·J·米爾斯海默在這次對話中警告道。

他挑釁性言論的根本原因是什麽？美國應該在多大程度上親自動手？

現實主義者約翰·米爾斯海默在終局134中受到邁克爾·麥克福爾的批評，他為烏克蘭戰爭的原因和後果辯護，他總結為“大國政治的悲劇”。

米爾斯海默先生是芝加哥大學 R. 溫德爾·哈裏森政治學傑出服務教授，他還分享了他對美國為何討厭他的現實主義理論、誰將從曠日持久的烏克蘭戰爭中受益以及氣候危機如何加劇北極地區的地緣政治緊張局勢的看法。

主持人是印度尼西亞教育家、企業家、斯坦福大學沃爾特·H·肖倫斯坦亞太研究中心 (APARC) 現任訪問學者吉塔·維賈萬 (Gita Wirjawan)。

John Mearsheimer: Is China the Real Winner of Ukraine War? | Endgame #136 (Luminaries)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl7goPRw_eE

Gita Wirjawan

 2023年4月28日  Endgame Podcast with Gita Wirjawan

“I think the situation we face today in the world is much more dangerous than it was during the Cold War,” warned realist John J. Mearsheimer in this conversation.

What are the underlying causes of his provoking statement? To what extent the United States should get its hands dirty?

Criticized by Michael McFaul in Endgame 134, realist John Mearsheimer defends his argument on the cause and consequences of the Ukraine War which he concludes as “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”.

Mr. Mearsheimer, who is an R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, also shares his view on why the US hates his realism theory, who will benefit from the prolonged Ukraine War, and how the climate crisis might increase the geopolitical tension over the Arctic region.

Hosted by Gita Wirjawan, an Indonesian educator, entrepreneur, and current visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University.

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4,670 條評論

@limjtet4932 1年前

以下是一位馬來西亞 YouTuber 所寫的分享：

我來自馬來西亞。中國與馬來西亞的貿易已有2000年的曆史。那些年，他們曾多次成為世界第一強國。他們從來沒有派遣軍隊占領我們的土地。中國海軍上將鄭和曾五次來到馬六甲，率領龐大的艦隊，所乘坐的旗艦是克裏斯托弗·哥倫布旗艦聖瑪麗亞號的八倍。他本可以輕易占領馬六甲，但他沒有。 1511年，葡萄牙人到來。 1642年，荷蘭人到來。 18世紀英國人來了。我們被一個又一個地殖民。

當中國想要來自印度的香料時，他們就與印度人進行貿易。當他們想要寶石時，他們就與波斯人進行交易。他們沒有奪取土地。中國唯一一次向外擴張是在元朝，當時成吉思汗及其後裔窩闊台汗、貴由汗和忽必烈汗吞並了中國、中亞和東歐。但元朝雖然立足於中國，但卻是蒙古帝國的一部分。 

然後到了1800年，屈辱的世紀。英國在茶葉和瓷器貿易中找不到足夠的白銀來支付清朝的費用，並且這種鴉片行為持續了30多年，因此英國向中國走私鴉片來迷惑民眾，這是扭轉貿易逆差的策略。在中國為了遏製鴉片而燒毀鴉片倉庫並關閉港口後，英國發動了第一次鴉片戰爭，中國戰敗。在和談（《南京條約》）中，香港被迫向英國投降。英國人擁有中國90%的鴉片市場，當時的維多利亞女王是世界上最大的毒梟。剩下的 10% 歸波士頓的美國商人所有。波士頓的許多機構都是靠鴉片利潤建立的。 

《南京條約》簽訂十二年後，西方開始變得非常非常貪婪。英國人希望清政府： 

1.開放中國邊境，允許貨物自由進出，免稅。 

2.使鴉片在中國合法化。

瘋狂的要求，清政府拒絕了。英國和法國（在美國的支持下）與中國發動了第二次鴉片戰爭，中國再次戰敗。英法聯軍突襲頤和園，並威脅燒毀故宮，清政府被迫交出港口、自由貿易區、白銀30萬公斤，九龍被占領。從此，中國的資源通過這些商區和港口自由流出。在隨後的條約修改中，中國人被賣到海外充當勞工。 

1900年，中國遭受八國同盟的進攻。這八強盜分別是：日本帝國、俄羅斯帝國、大英帝國（包括印度）、法國、美國、德國、意大利和奧匈帝國。北京（現北京）的無辜中國平民被殺害，建築物被摧毀，婦女被強奸。皇宮遭到搜查，寶藏最終流入倫敦大英博物館和巴黎盧浮宮等博物館。 

20世紀30年代末，中國在二戰中被日本占領。數百萬中國人在占領期間死亡。僅南京大屠殺就有30萬中國人死亡。 

毛澤東將中國從混亂中重新團結起來。一段時間存在和平與團結。但毛澤東統治後期，人們因饑荒和權力鬥爭而遭受痛苦和死亡。 

然後是鄧小平和他臭名昭著的“黑貓白貓”故事。他對實用主義而非意識形態的偏愛改變了中國。這種思維使中國不斷發展以適應國家的實際需要，而不是僵化於意識形態。這也標誌著共產主義在中國的實際死亡。現行的社會主義+精英+市場經濟模式就像手套一樣適合中國人，推動著中國的崛起。新加坡也有類似的模式，而且可以說比香港更成功，因為香港作為中國的門戶，受益於中國的經濟繁榮，而新加坡卻沒有從中受益。

短短30年，中國共產黨讓8億人擺脫了貧困。增長速度在人類曆史上是前所未有的。他們建立了最大的移動網絡、迄今為止世界上最大的高速鐵路網絡，並且已成為基礎設施領域的龐然大物。他們把一個叫深圳的漁村變成了僅次於矽穀的世界第二大科技中心。他們正在成長為一個技術強國。它擁有世界上最複雜的電子商務和無現金支付係統。他們已經啟動了對火星的探索。中國人民過著美好的生活，中國已成為世界上最安全的國家之一。全國人民的愛國主義精神達到了前所未有的高度。 

對於所有這些成就，西方沒有什麽好說的。中國遭受西方強烈的反華宣傳。西方媒體使用“共產主義”這個關鍵詞來灌輸對中國的恐懼和仇恨。 

中國所做的一切都會受到負麵報道。 

他們聲稱中國在製造 iPhone 時使用了奴工。事實是，蘋果是世界上最賺錢的公司，它拿走了大部分利潤，把一些利潤留給了富士康（一家台灣公司），而幾乎沒有留給工人。 

他們聲稱中國的一胎政策是不人道的。同時，他們指責中國龐大的人口汙染了地球。事實上，中國人均能源消耗量僅為美國的 30%。 

他們聲稱中國在新疆進行了種族清洗。事實上，中國有優先少數民族的政策。長期以來，少數民族允許生育兩個孩子，而占多數的漢族隻允許生育一個孩子。少數族裔在大學入學時可以得到較低的分數。中國有39,000座清真寺，美國有2100座。中國每名穆斯林擁有的清真寺數量大約是美國的三倍。 

當新疆發生恐怖襲擊事件時，中國有兩個選擇：

1. 在維吾爾族極端分子變成恐怖分子之前對其進行再教育。

2. 隨他們去吧，他們發動襲擊，殺害無辜者後，轟炸他們的家園。 

中國選擇方案一是為了從根本上解決問題，而不是殺人。美國如何解決恐怖主義？從戰艦上發射導彈，從天上投下炸彈。 

疫情期間，當中國采取極端措施封鎖民眾時，他們被指責為不人道。

當中國因采取極端措施而迅速複蘇時，他們被指責在實際數字上撒謊。

當中國的病例數變得如此之低，以至於可以向其他國家提供醫療支持時，他們被指責出於政治動機。 

西方媒體總是有理由攻擊中國。 

就像任何國家一樣，中國也有不負責任的人做壞事、肮髒事，但中國政府總體做得很好。但我一遍又一遍地聽到西方人這樣評價：我喜歡中國人，但中共是邪惡的。他們真正想要的是中國人改變政府，因為現在的政府太好了。 

幸好中國不是多黨民主國家，否則中國的反對黨就會得到美國臭名昭著的NGO（非政府組織）如NED（國家民主基金會）的支持，推翻執政黨。美國、英國打不開中國大陸，就對香港下手。在所有前英國殖民地國家中，隻有香港人獲得了英國的BNO。因為英國希望香港人認為他們是英國公民，而不是中國人。他們在世界各地的顏色革命中經常使用分而治之的策略。 

他們采取了拘留華為首席財務官、禁止華為等卑鄙手段。他們發起了一場愚蠢的貿易戰，這對任何人都沒有好處。發展中國家與發達國家之間始終存在貿易逆差。美國就像一個賣豪車的人問農民：為什麽我總是買你的菜，而你卻不買我的車？ 

30年前，當中國人為世界製造襪子時，世界就順其自然。但當中國開始製造像華為和大疆這樣的高科技產品時，它引起了紅色警報。因為當西方和日本產品在技術上與中國產品相當時，它們在價格上永遠無法與中國產品相比。第一世界國家希望中國繼續製造襪子。他們不是想提升自己，而是想拉低中國。 

美國近期針對中國的舉動有一個非常重要的背景。當利比亞、伊朗和中國決定在石油貿易中放棄美元時，卡紮菲被美國殺死，伊朗被美國製裁，現在輪到中國了。美國一直在無中生有地印鈔票。美元仍然被廣泛接受的唯一原因是因為它是唯一允許與石油進行交易的貨幣。美國與沙特達成協議，石油隻能以美元交易。如果沒有石油美元地位，美元就會貶值，美國就會衰落。因此，任何試圖違背這個命令的人都將被淘汰。中國很快將使用黃金支持的加密貨幣，白宮的警報瘋狂響起。

中國的成就是靠艱苦努力取得的。不是通過掠奪世界。

我對中國所遭受的一切苦難深表同情，但現在我為他們感到高興。

@limjtet4932 1年前

Sharing below written by a Malaysian YouTuber:

I’m from Malaysia. China has traded with Malaysia for 2000 years. In those years, they had been the world’s biggest powers many times. Never once they sent troops to take our land. China's admiral Zhenghe came to Malacca five times, in gigantic fleets, and a flagship eight times the size of Christopher Columbus’ flagship, Santa Maria. He could have seized Malacca easily, but he did not. In 1511, the Portuguese came. In 1642, the Dutch came. In the 18th century the British came. We were colonised by each, one after another.

When China wanted spices from India, they traded with the Indians. When they wanted gems, they traded with the Persian. They didn’t take lands. The only time China expanded beyond their current borders was in Yuan Dynasty, when Genghis and his descendants Ogedei Khan, Guyuk Khan & Kublai Khan concurred China, Mid Asia and Eastern Europe. But Yuan Dynasty, although being based in China, was a part of the Mongolian Empire. 

Then came year 1800, the Century of Humiliation. Britain smuggled opium into China to dope the population, a strategy to turn the trade deficit around, after the British could not find enough silver to pay the Qing Dynasty in their tea and porcelain trades and the doping went on for over 30 years. After the opium warehouses were burned down and ports were closed by the Chinese in ordered to curb opium, the British started the Opium War I, which China lost. Hong Kong was forced to be surrendered to the British in a peace talk (Nanjing Treaty). The British owned 90% of the opium market in China, during that time, Queen Victoria was the world’s biggest drug baron. The remaining 10% was owned by American merchants from Boston. Many of Boston’s institutions were built with profit from opium. 

After 12 years of Nanjing Treaty, the West started getting really really greedy. The British wanted the Qing government: 

1. To open the borders of China to allow goods coming in and out freely, and tax free. 

2. Make opium legal in China.

Insane requests, Qing government said no. The British and French (with supports from the US), started Opium War II with China, which again, China lost. The Anglo-French military raided the Summer Palace, and threatened to burn down the Imperial Palace, the Qing government was forced to pay with ports, free business zones, 300,000 kilograms of silver and Kowloon was taken. Since then, China’s resources flew out freely through these business zones and ports. In the subsequent amendment to the treaties, Chinese people were sold overseas to serve as labor. 

In 1900, China suffered attacks by the 8-National Alliance. These 8-Robbers were: Empire of Japan, Russian Empire, British Empire (including India), France, USA, Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary. Innocent Chinese civilians in Peking (Beijing now) were murdered, buildings were destroyed & women were raped. The Imperial Palace was raided, and treasures ended up in museums like the British Museum in London and the Louvre in Paris. 

In late 1930s China was occupied by the Japanese in WWII. Millions of Chinese died during the occupancy. 300,000 Chinese died in Nanjing Massacre alone. 

Mao brought China together again from the shambles. There were peace and unity for some time. But Mao’s later reign saw sufferings and deaths from famine and power struggles. 

Then came Deng Xiao Ping and his infamous “black-cat and white-cat” story. His preference in pragmatism than ideologies transformed China. This thinking allowed China to evolve all the time to adapt to the actual needs in the country, instead of rigidly bounded to ideologies. It also signified the death of Communism in actually practice in China. The current Socialism+Meritocracy+Market Economy model fits the Chinese like gloves, and it propels the uprise of China. Singapore has a similar model, and has been arguably more successful than Hong Kong, because Hong Kong being gateway to China, was riding on the economic boom in China, while Singapore had no one to gain from.

In just 30 years, the CPC have moved 800 millions of people out from poverty. The rate of growth is unprecedented in human history. They have built the biggest mobile network, by far the biggest high speed rail network in the world, and they have become a behemoth in infrastructure. They made a fishing village called Shenzhen into the world’s second largest technological centre after the Silicon Valley. They are growing into a technological power house. It has the most elaborate e-commerce and cashless payment system in the world. They have launched exploration to Mars. The Chinese are living a good life and China has become one of the safest countries in the world. The level of patriotism in the country has reached an unprecedented height. 

For all of the achievements, the West has nothing good to say about it. China suffers from intense anti-China propagandas from the West. Western Media used the keyword “Communist” to instil fear and hatred towards China. 

Everything China does is negatively reported. 

They claimed China used slave labor in making iPhones. The truth was, Apple was the most profitable company in the world, it took most of the profit, leave some to Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) and little to the labor. 

They claimed China was inhuman with one-child policy. At the same time, they accused China of polluting the earth with its huge population. The fact is the Chinese consume just 30% of energy per capita compared to the US. 

They claimed China underwent ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang. The fact is China has a policy which priorities ethnic minorities. For a long time, the ethnic minorities were allowed to have two children and the majority Han only allowed one. The minorities are allowed a lower score for university intakes. There are 39,000 mosque in China, and 2100 in the US. China has about 3 times more mosque per muslim than the US. 

When terrorist attacks happened in Xinjiang, China had two choices:

1. Re-educate the Uighur extremists before they turned terrorists.

2. Let them be, after they launch attacks and killed innocent people, bomb their homes. 

China chose option 1 to solve problem from the root and not to do killing. How the US solve terrorism? Fire missiles from battleships, drop bombs from the sky. 

During the pandemic, when China took extreme measures to lockdown the people, they were accused of being inhuman.

When China recovered swiftly because of the extreme measures, they were accused of lying about the actual numbers.

When China’s cases became so low that they could provide medical support to other countries, they were accused of politically motivated. 

Western Media always have reasons to bash China. 

Just like any country, there are irresponsible individuals from China which do bad and dirty things, but the China government overall has done very well. But I hear this comment over and over by people from the West: I like Chinese people, but the CPC is evil. What they really want is the Chinese to change the government, because the current one is too good. 

Fortunately China is not a multi-party democratic country, otherwise the opposition party in China will be supported by notorious NGOs (Non-Government Organization) of the USA, like the NED (National Endowment for Democracy), to topple the ruling party. The US and the British couldn’t crack Mainland China, so they work on Hong Kong. Of all the ex-British colonial countries, only the Hong Kongers were offered BNOs by the British. Because the UK would like the Hong Kongers to think they are British citizens, not Chinese. A divide-and-conquer strategy, which they often used in Color Revolutions around the world. 

They resort to low dirty tricks like detaining Huawei’s CFO & banning Huawei. They raised a silly trade war which benefits no one. Trade deficit always exist between a developing and a developed country. USA is like a luxury car seller who ask a farmer: why am I always buying your vegetables and you haven’t bought any of my cars? 

When the Chinese were making socks for the world 30 years ago, the world let it be. But when Chinese started to make high technology products, like Huawei and DJI, it caused red-alert. Because when Western and Japanese products are equal to Chinese in technologies, they could never match the Chinese in prices. First world countries want China to continue in making socks. Instead of stepping up themselves, they want to pull China down. 

The recent movement by the US against China has a very important background. When Libya, Iran, and China decided to ditch the US dollar in oil trades, Gaddafi’s was killed by the US, Iran was being sanctioned by the US, and now it’s China’s turn. The US has been printing money out of nothing. The only reason why the US Dollar is still widely accepted, is because it’s the only currency which oil is allowed to be traded with. The US has an agreement with Saudi that oil must be traded in US dollar ONLY. Without the petrol-dollar status, the US dollars will sink, and America will fall. Therefore anyone trying to disobey this order will be eliminated. China will soon use a gold-backed crypto-currency, the alarms in the White House go off like mad.

China’s achievement has been by hard work. Not by looting the world.

I have deep sympathy for China for all the suffering, but now I feel happy for them.

@yingtaoli4966 1年前

作為一個中國人，我尊重約翰·米爾斯海默及其現實主義理論，但我並不認同。

中國不會在軍事上製定打敗美國的戰略，因為美國無法被打敗（美國擁有巨量的核武器）。從古至今，所有的帝國都不是被外部敵人打敗的，都是由於帝國內部的腐朽崩潰的。中國的策略是繼續強大自己，立於不敗之地，然後坐等美國犯錯然後崩潰。

中國不必掠奪就能富裕強大，而美國必須靠掠奪才能維持霸權，得道多助失道寡助，美國霸權最終會自我毀滅。

@jokepiebenga4709 2周前

What a lesson in history from this Malaysian You Tuber! Thank you! 

I am an 80 year old woman from the Netherlands and a long time already I'm ashamed for what my country and the West in general has done to the world and what misery they brought on people all over the world.

We only can hope it's done now for the West.

In the near future there will come a lot of destruction and a shift in our so called 'values' and that will only be for the better for all human kind! 

@fredsuun5004 1年前（修改過）

Now I understand why Chinese welcome Prof. John Mearsheimer. He is one of the few Western elites who do not blame China out of ideology (cliches of slave labor, human right, etc.) but seriously analyze China based on facts and theory. I especially appreciate his empathy on Chinese's struggle of sincerely trying to "peaceful rise." That empathy is so rare from another culture and shows his wisdom. Respect and look forward to more of his works and interviews.

@juanpisente7464 1年前（修改過）

Thank you Prof. Gita Wirjawan for the amazing content. We, as Indonesians, are incredibly lucky to have you as an inspiration.

I would humbly like to add to Mearsheimer's points. As someone who immersed himself in Chinese history as a young boy and is currently taking business in university. I believe that the United States are overlooking a few things, including Professor Mearsheimer. 

1. The Chinese, historically, have a concept called the "Tributary System." Basically, a pragmatic China would leave their neighbors alone as long as they pay "tribute" to the Chinese. The US have a perspective as if, wherever China walks, autocracy will follow similar to the Cold War with Communism. I don't think that is the case. China doesn't care about the internals of other countries as long as "they paid tribute." The Yuan Dynasty only invaded the Singhasari because our ancestors did not pay tribute. I think this idea of pragmatism will be highlighted as China's soft power projection in the future. The world can trust China more because they never coup a third world country, unlike the US. 

2. The Chinese are incredibly long-term oriented. This is the lands of Sun Tzu and their warfare tactics revolves our deception. I don't think Taiwan is China's end goal. Taiwan is just a distraction. I think a Chinese-dominated international finance is the end goal. We see how Saudi Arabia turned from the US after Chinese exports of Saudi oil eclipsed that of the Americans. They see the power in buying themselves friends. If one day China invaded Taiwan, it would be in a day where Southeast Asia have been dominated with Chinese money and SK-Japan no longer becoming advanced economies due to their advancing age demographics. They are playing the long game. They are sacrificing their short-term goals in Taiwan for long-term financial dominance. 

3. Many American theorists (even in YouTube) predicted that China will collapse anytime soon. They are underestimating the Confucian culture of the Chinese society. They said when China opened the COVID-19 restrictions because of the protests, it becomes as symbol that China will collapse. China doesn't work like that. When the West has a concept called "Divine Right to Rule," China has a more transactional-based concept to justify rule called the "Mandate of Heaven." Basically, this includes an Confucian ideal where the people give their full loyalty to the state and in return, the Chinese state will protect and provide their needs. China opening the COVID-19 restrictions is a symbol that the PRC is acting in accordance to the Mandate of Heaven and Confucian ideals. They are listening to the people. If anything, the Chinese would appreciate their government more after the protests. 

Chinese philosophy is very pragmatic. Their government will not collapse just because a government official is contradicts another. America's greatest mistake will be to use their line of thoughts on the Chinese instead of trying to learn from the Chinese's own unique eastern-way of thought. The Chinese, humiliated by the West for 200 years, have known the Western way of thought all too well evidenced by their love of Mearsheimer. There is a Chinese advantage in war of minds. In the past, I like to say to my International Relations friends in campus that "the Americans are playing chess, while the Chinese are play mahjong." Mearsheimer is right when he says the Americans have to take the Chinese more seriously.

@marvinfok65  1年前（修改過）

Well I have respect for Mearsheimer that he is dead honest about the US-China relationship is about hegemony and not some bullsh!t democracy vs authoritarian.

Mearsheimer once participated in a debate in Intelligence Square on the topic if "China is friend or a foe' a few years ago. He did try initially to bullsh!t about that if China is a democracy, US would not have treated China like a foe. However, by almost at the end of the debate and he was asked if he would think of China as a friend if China eventually becomes a democracy, he said NO. He honestly admitted that whether China is a democracy or not is not import because China is becoming too powerful, a jeopardy to US's hegemony!

 

@ClrenceKayet-iy9vk 2個月前

Am so grateful to have this lesson from Prof. Mearsheimer for free. The facilitator is has also done a great job.

@Bulelengman 1年前

Never in my life I would imagine a free accessible talks from John Mearsheimer. Terima kasih banyak Pak Gita..

@mbelgedhez007 1年前（修改過）

Salah satu pakar paling dihormati dalam bidangnya, tapi juga paling sedikit didengarkan oleh para politisi. Demi mengejar keuntungan taktis dan jangka pendek, mereka harus kehilangan keuntungan strategis dlm jangka panjang. Dan itu jadi salah satu penyebab kemunduran AS: politisinya tidak mendengarkan ilmuwan, kalau mendengar adalah pada ilmuwan yg melayani kepentingan jangka pendek mereka. 

Terimakasih Pak John dan Pak Gita!

@danielpan2159 1個月前

Thrilled to have such a wonderful speech by intelligent John and professional interviewing by Gita!

@user-bf4sb2ms2u 10個月前

完整的聽完了，確實如中國人所想的。美國總是想著假借自由民主的名義遏製中國發展，不就是因為中國發展的太快了，威脅到美國霸權地位了嗎？他們總是很虛偽。而這位教授非常真誠的講出了中美交惡的底層邏輯。

中國人喜歡聽真話，做真事。如果美國希望遏製中國，我們更願意聽到你們清晰地說:"我們美國想要當世界老大"，而不是"中國不是一個文明國家，中國是壞人，希望其他國家聯合起來反對中國"。

說白了，美國就是希望發展霸權主義，推行意識形態對立，反對多邊主義罷了，大家都非常清楚這一點。所以中國人甚至更喜歡特朗普一點，因為特朗普至少非常真實，他就是希望American first，而拜登就是個虛偽的老頭子。

我認為中國崛起不影響美國人民的生活，並且合理競爭有利於全人類發展，如果把競爭的力量都用於發展航天航空等高精尖領域，而不是軍事，那這個世界會多麽美好啊。

@manawa-2872  1年前

WOW... as an International Relations student... I am amazed with this podcast session. I mean. I've been following you on Instagram and YouTube as well for more than 5 years and this is the most appealing talk I ever watch. Watching both of you makes me tremendously happy, because I can see and comprehend ideas and views from this Outstanding Scholar. Dankjewel Pak Gita.