Warwick Powell 中國新經濟戰略的影響

Don't Miss Out! How China's New Economic Strategies Impacts You

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFiFtj1oOM

Warwick Powell | 鮑韶山， @baoshaoshan，adjunct Professor at Queensland University of Astralia; working at the intersection of China, digital technologies, supply chains, financial flows and global political economy & governance. 

Think BRICS  2024年7月21日

Explore China's New Economic Strategies with Prof. Warwick Powell as we delve into China's Third Plenum, Digital Payments, Supply Chain Digitalization, and more. Learn about the mBridge Payment Platform and its potential to revolutionize international transactions. Understand the real implications of De-dollarization and how China’s Technological Independence initiatives are reshaping global markets. This comprehensive overview covers Economic Reforms, Global Financial Stability, and the impact of the BRICS Alliance on global dynamics. We also discuss China's Economic Impact on Foreign Investment, International Trade, and Economic Modernization, emphasizing National Security and Digital Economy advancements. Discover how Blockchain technology, Electric Vehicles, and Semiconductors play pivotal roles in China's growth strategy.

In this interview, Prof. Warwick Powell shares insights into China's ambitious goals for 2035 and the modernization of its governance systems. We examine the balance between China's Digital Economy and Supply Chain innovations and how these developments affect global markets. Additionally, the video highlights the geopolitical implications of China-US Trade Relations and China’s Financial Strategies aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth. We explore China’s Green Development initiatives, Rule of Law advancements, and efforts towards an Inclusive Democracy. This in-depth analysis provides a clear picture of China’s private sector's contributions to GDP growth and the broader global economic trends influenced by these strategies.

While this video provides a thorough analysis of China's New Economic Strategies and their global impact, it also offers insightful discussions into the intricacies of China's local economic policies and provides comparisons with other nations' strategies. Additionally, the video explores the domestic social impact of these economic reforms and the potential challenges faced by China's technological advancements. For those seeking a deeper understanding of China’s internal policy adjustments and the microeconomic effects of these strategies, this video is an invaluable resource. Our comprehensive approach ensures you gain a well-rounded perspective on these critical developments.

This video is a must-watch for anyone interested in Global Markets, China-US Trade Relations, and the far-reaching implications of China's economic and technological evolution. Stay informed and understand the nuances of these complex developments with Prof. Warwick Powell’s expert insights.

Follow Prof. Warwick Powell: ?? X: https://x.com/baoshaoshan ?? Substack: https://warwickpowell.substack.com/ ?? Website: https://www.smarttradenetworks.com/

打破“霸權接力”遊戲，中國為世界經濟去中心化賦能

來源：中國日報網  2024-07-18

導讀

過去數百年來，全球經濟呈“中心-邊緣”結構，位於中心地位的霸權國家從邊緣國家掠奪財富，造成全球發展不均衡。近年來隨著中國的崛起，這種軸輻結構被打破，世界經濟格局出現去中心化趨勢。中國致力於在國內國際兩個市場構建更加均衡的經濟發展模式，讓更多人享受發展的紅利。日前召開的中共二十屆三中全會圍繞中國式現代化建設、高質量發展等議題，為實現這一目標的指明了方向。

本文為中國觀察智庫獨家約稿，轉載請注明來源：中國日報中國觀察智庫。

在過去700年的大部分時間裏，全球經濟擴張呈現出日益一體化的特征：越來越多的國家和地區被卷入資本積累的循環，而其中總有一個霸權國家占據著政治經濟主導地位。世界體係呈“中心-邊緣”的軸輻結構不斷擴張，在這個結構中，霸權的接力棒幾次易手，從文藝複興時期的意大利到“海上馬車夫”荷蘭，再到“日不落帝國”不列顛，現在又傳給了美國。

在每個時代，位於“軸輻”中心的霸權國家都在從位於邊緣的國家掠奪財富。現在，我們再次來到了係統性變革的時期，但不同的是，這一次的變革可能並不是“霸權接力棒的傳遞”那麽簡單，而是係統性的去中心化。

中國共產黨第二十屆三中全會日前在北京召開，會議的主要議程之一是審議《中共中央關於進一步全麵深化改革、推進中國式現代化建設的決定》稿。審議主要圍繞中國式現代化建設、新質生產力、高質量發展等核心議題展開。所有這些不僅事關中國自身的發展，而且也將對正在形成的世界體係的形態產生重大影響。

過去30年來，中國已經成為世界上唯一的製造業“超級大國”。它貢獻了全球30%的製造業附加值，在所有產品類別中都占據了重要地位。這得益於強勁的國內市場增長。1995年，中國製造業產出占出口的比例為11%；在中國加入世貿組織短短幾年後的2004年，這一比例上升至18%；如今這一比例再次降至13%左右。換句話說，隨著產出的增長，國內市場也在增長。

與此同時，中國已成為140多個國家的最大貿易夥伴。在過去10年中，中國同全球南方國家，特別是同“一帶一路”共建國的貿易增長，超過了同歐美發達經濟體的貿易增長。如今，中國與全球南方國家的貿易額超過了與美國、歐盟和日本的貿易額之和。

中國當前和未來一段時期的出口增長，將圍繞可再生能源係統、新能源運輸解決方案和數字技術的結合展開。國內市場的激烈競爭，加上快速的自動化和集群效應帶來的生產力提高，極大地壓低了產品價格。成本的不斷降低讓新技術逾越了國家間發展程度不同的障礙，加速了各國的低碳轉型，助力《巴黎協定》目標的實現，最終讓整個世界受益。

低成本的清潔運輸係統，以及能源主權，對於擴大資本積累及全球生產和增值的去中心化至關重要。

中國通過把“蛋糕”做大的方式，讓所有人民享受發展的紅利，這與過去那種通過人為製造緊缺和尋租，隻讓少數人獲利的資本積累模式截然不同——前者讓消費者獲得好處，而後者讓食利者積累財富。

中國也正在成為一個資本輸出國，在“一帶一路”框架下投資的基礎設施項目就是顯著的例子。但最近，我們看到中國企業在其他國家投資礦產加工和製造業的項目越來越多，這說明中國不光是在“授人以魚”，也是在“授人以漁”。

在過去30年的大部分時間裏，全球的數據流都是通過地麵基站、海底光纜和人造衛星組成的通信網絡進行傳輸的，而這些數據最終匯入了美國弗吉尼亞州的數據中心。這給數據安全和數字主權帶來了隱患。正如美國學者亨利·法雷爾和亞伯拉罕·紐曼在2023年出版的《地下帝國》 (Underground Empire) 一書中所說：美國通過控製全球商業通道，將全球經濟武器化了。

但這種情況也正在發生變化。中國企業正在擴大自己的數字網絡，為“一帶一路”框架下越來越多的貿易基礎設施提供支撐。這個數字網絡及其相關的數據中心等“硬件”設施，與開源操作係統和平台等“軟件”相結合，共同構成了21世紀新數字標準的基礎，正在催生一個新興的“數字威斯特伐利亞體係”。

中國要搞現代化建設，核心是要構建所謂的“新質生產力”。新質生產力可以降低生產和流通成本，進而隨著基礎設施和技術的日益普及，促進財富的分散。中國在尋求國內更均衡發展的同時，也在通過貿易、資本輸出和技術轉讓，促進全球一體化，解決數十年來全球發展不均衡的問題。

克服不均衡的經濟發展，與挪威政治學家約翰·加爾通提出的“積極的和平”理念是相通的。今天，多極化已經成為現實。中共二十屆三中全會正在製定一項政策方針，鞏固全球新經濟架構的基礎，以支撐各國日益增長的經濟主權基礎上不可分割的總體安全。

是做一個剝削者還是賦能者？這是個問題。在世界多極化的時代，中國式現代化給出了唯一的確定答案：要做一個賦能者——通過去中心化的、均衡的全球經濟發展來賦能民族複興和積極和平。三中全會為實現這一目標指明了具體步驟的方向。

本文原文發表在中國日報國際版，原標題為 "Enabler not expropriator"

出品：中國日報中國觀察智庫

Enabler not expropriator

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202407/18/WS66987dbfa31095c51c50eb56.html?

By WARWICK POWELL   2024-07-18 10:28

China's development model is pricing people into the green transition by way of abundance

For the best part of the past 700 years, the system of global economic expansion has been characterized by increasing integration with more territories incorporated into circuits of capital accumulation against a backdrop of a dominant political-economic hegemon. The world system has expanded as a center-periphery structure, in which the baton of the hegemon has been handed from the Italians to the Dutch, then to the English and then to the Americans.

In each epoch, the hegemon has expropriated wealth from the periphery. We are now, again, in a period of systemic change. But perhaps, this time, the transformation is not merely one of "passing on the baton" but one of systemic decentering.

The third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is guided by and will deliberate on the draft of the CPC Central Committee's Decision on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernization. Much of these deliberations will revolve around core themes such as Chinese modernization, new quality productive forces and high-quality development. All of these have implications not just for China's own development but also for the shape of the world system that is unfolding.

In the past three decades, China has emerged as the world's sole manufacturing superpower. It contributes 30 percent of global value added, and occupies a prime position in all product categories. It has achieved this off the back of strong domestic market growth. In 1995, the ratio of China's manufactured output to exports was 11 percent. This increased to 18 percent in 2004, a few years after the country's admission to the World Trade Organization, receding to 13 percent or so today. Put another way, as output grew so did the domestic market.

At the same time, China has emerged as the largest trading partner for over 140 nations. Over the past decade, China's trade growth with the Global South, particularly those participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, has outstripped trade growth with the mature economies of Europe and the United States. Now, China trades more with the Global South than it does with the US, the European Union and Japan combined.

The current and future phase of export growth will revolve around a combination of renewable energy systems, new energy transport solutions and digital technologies. Intense competition in the domestic market, coupled with rapid automation and cluster-enabled productivity gains, has placed incredible downward pressure on prices. The world market is now the beneficiary of low-cost technologies that overcome development barriers and hasten the decarbonization transition that nations agreed to strive for in the Paris climate accord.

Low-cost and clean transport systems together with energy sovereignty are pivotal to expanded capital accumulation and the decentering of global production and value adding.

China's model is pricing people in by way of abundance. This contrasts with the traditional models of capital accumulation that prices people out through confected scarcity and rent seeking. Consumers are the beneficiaries in the former case, whereas the rentier accumulates wealth in the latter.

China is also emerging as an exporter of capital. Infrastructure investments via the BRI are notable examples, but more recently we are seeing Chinese companies invest in minerals processing and manufacturing facilities in other countries. China isn't just exporting final products; it is exporting value-adding capacity and know-how.

For the best part of the past 30 years, the flow of data globally has been via a network of terrestrial, submarine and stellar infrastructure channeled through data centers in Virginia in the US.Data security and sovereignty were compromised. In effect, as argued recently by US scholars Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman in their 2023 book Underground Empire, the US has weaponized the global economy through its control over the pipes of global commerce

This, too, is changing, as Chinese companies expand an alternative digital network to buttress the growing array of trade infrastructure that has been developed through the BRI. This digital network and its associated infrastructure of data centers is allied with a growing commitment to open-source operating systems and platforms, as the foundation for the new digital standards for the 21st century. Such an approach is enabling an emergent Digital Westphalia.

Chinese modernization is underpinned by what has been called new quality productive forces. These enable the development of low-cost systems of production and circulation, supporting value decentering as infrastructure and know-how are made increasingly available. Just as China seeks to achieve more even development domestically, the effects of its model of global integration via trade, capital exports and transfer of knowhow is also tackling decades of uneven global development.

Overcoming uneven economic development is symbiotic with what Johan Galtung once described as a positive peace. Multipolarity is already a reality today, and the third plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee is consolidating a policy approach that reinforces the economic underpinnings of a new global economic architecture that can support models of indivisible security for all based on growing economic sovereignty.

To be an expropriator or an enabler? That is the question. In an era of multipolarity, Chinese modernization can only take the form of being an enabler — an enabler of national rejuvenation and of positive peace through decentered, even economic development worldwide. The third plenum consolidates steps toward this.

The author is an adjunct professor at Queensland University of Technology and a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at [e-mail].