Robert Atkinson 美國再多製裁也攔不住中國芯片

白宮顧問：為什麽美國再多製裁也攔不住中國芯片？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wV5mT277iY&ab_channel=

China Content Center

107,876次觀看  2024年6月13日
從TikTok禁令到芯片禁令，從限製出口到增加關稅，美國的對華政策到底是什麽？今年4月，我們有幸連線到美國信息技術與創新基金會（ITIF）的創始人兼主席羅伯特·阿特金森教授。美國信息技術與創新基金會是美國最具盛名的頂級智庫之一。他是怎麽看美國對華的芯片禁令呢，讓我們來聽聽他是怎麽說的。
想要了解中國的真實聲音，歡迎關注 https://thechinaacademy.org/

Robert D. Atkinson

Canadian-American economist

 

 

Description

Robert David Atkinson is a Canadian-American economist. He is president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a public policy think tank based in Washington, D.C., that promotes policies based on innovation economics. He was previously Vice President of the Progressive Policy Institute. Wikipedia

Born: November 22, 1954 (age 69 years), Calgary

Education: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of Oregon

Organization founded: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

The Real Contest With China

https://itif.org/publications/2023/08/28/the-real-contest-with-china/

By Michael Brown and Robert D. Atkinson  August 28, 2023

Read the Commentary

 

As Beijing has become Washington’s overriding challenge of the 21st century, the Chinese leadership has made clear that it aims to displace the United States as the world’s technological and economic superpower. As Michael Brown and Rob Atkinson write in Foreign Affairs, this form of competition has no historic precedent. China has a much larger and more technologically advanced economy than did the Soviet Union at its peak, and in contrast to its Soviet predecessor it is deeply integrated into the global economy. The rivalry between the two powers has significant diplomatic, military, and ideological aspects, but its most important dimensions are technological and economic.

 

China views dominance of advanced industries as a key to national security. It aims to increase its power by establishing global preeminence in a broad array of developing technologies. Many of these, such as biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and aerospace, are current U.S. strengths. As a result, it is likely that China will continue employing “innovation mercantilist” trade and economic policies—including outright intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer, along with massive subsidies of domestic industries—to achieve this goal. These tactics have already been successfully demonstrated in steel, shipbuilding, solar panels, high-speed rail, LCD displays, batteries, and advanced telecommunications.

 

Washington has yet to grapple with the full range of this threat. U.S. policies thus far have been focused on limiting intellectual property theft, countering unfair trade practices, constraining China’s semiconductor industry through export controls, and strengthening the U.S. military. The CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Congress last year, promise to support domestic semiconductor and clean technology production, but they fall short of offering a comprehensive approach to winning the technology race. Similarly, the Biden administration’s policy to “invest, align, and compete,” outlined by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in May 2022, does not support the funding, private-sector coordination, or competitive advantages at the scale that is required to retain the country’s supremacy in advanced technologies.

 

Instead, Washington must prepare for an all-out effort to win the competition with China. This means a multigenerational campaign that will involve large investments in science, technology development, and domestic manufacturing; an engaged private sector to build national capabilities; and sustained actions to make Chinese tactics unprofitable. To carry this out, the United States will need to identify the critical and emerging technologies of the coming century and develop coherent and detailed plans to nurture them.

272 條評論

@hongdeli6148
50秒鍾前
中國人平均智商高歐美10點，您看國際智力型競賽，各個國家隊都有華人。歐美社會治安混亂，人們心理壓力大，影響大腦神經元發育，降低智力水平，已經進入死循環。美國政客越折騰越加快玩完。

@qingzhu5741 4周前
美國對中國的限製其實是在限製自己的發展。

@saibinlin4407 3周前
前段時間有一美國議員講了一段話，我覺得代表了美國人的真實思想，他的大致意思是，即使中國按照美國的規則體係和法律意願來配合美國，美國一樣還會限製中國的發展。因為中國破壞了美國人可以在輕鬆的發展氛圍中來主導和引領世界發展的模式。中國以難以想象的增長讓美國人深切感受到了危機，美國人不願意看到任何一個強大的對手，即使是德國和印度都不可接受，更何況是共產主義中國。所以美國人所有的行動並不隻是讓中國屈服，而是要把中國趕回到原始社會。

@pneumonoul8639
4周前
美國要檢討如今日漸衰弱的國勢根本是自身的問題，和中國崛起沒半毛錢關係。

說穿了還不就是忌妒中國比你強，難道要中國停下前行的腳步，難道要中國和你一起逐漸衰敗？美國還真是病得不輕。

@samchui9246
4周前
白人至上的年代已經過去

@xiaowenou4354
4周前
中國每年培養這麽多工科生，真不是吃素的，好多孩子都很聰明。

@user-je2ew6vl7v
4周前
隻是限製生產芯片的工具而已，不賣高端芯片也無所謂，但是物理規律都是一樣的，技術突破是時間問題

@davidchung4691
4周前
Fair comment coming from an American!

@teoeehuat8742
4周前
You are only one of the American who telling the truth things. I Respect what you said.

@jianchiwei5379
4周前
白宮 --> 自宮

@maplered5351
4周前（修改過）
美國黨派利益已經淩駕於美國國家利益，但是沒有任何一個本土勢力可以平衡黨派利益用於服務國家利益，這就是美國製度的缺陷。雖然美國人也明白黨派爭鬥，但是無法改變這才是美國的現實。說一個最現實的例子，中國電動車就全球而言發展最為迅速，也相對於西方而言會更便宜，但是美國的議員以及政黨為維護自身的利益限製或加大關稅禁止中國電動車進入美國，大家可以試想一個問題，這樣的行為誰會獲利，無非就是美國的汽車製造商以及收獲政治現金的政客以及利益團體，但是這樣的人口規模隻占美國總人口的極少部分。當美國公民需要購買汽車時，他們往往需要多花更多資金來購買美國生產的本土汽車。這樣行為本身就是無視消費者利益的行為，任何國家都是少數人掌握大量財富，而中等或以下收入的人群確占據總人口的大部分。而美國製定政策群體忽視大多數人民的實際利益，相對保護極少數人的利益，這樣的行為本身就不符合國家的整體利益。所以美國政治製度本身是有缺陷的，往往很難從自身去修複問題，明明知道問題是什麽，但是從政治的角度應該理性的分析問題解決問題，從國家長遠規劃中尋求平衡解決之道，但是美國就2黨政治而言，並沒有另外的力量可以讓2黨回歸理性。
American partisan interests have overridden American national interests, but there is no homegrown power that can balance partisan interests for use in the service of national interests, and that is the flaw in the American system. Although Americans also understand partisan fighting, but can not change this is the reality of the United States. Say a most realistic example, China's electric car on the world's most rapid development, but also compared to the West will be cheaper, but U.S. lawmakers as well as political parties in order to protect their own interests to limit or increase tariffs to prohibit China's electric car into the U.S., we can imagine a question, such behavior who will profit, is only the U.S. automakers and harvest political cash politicians and interest groups, but the size of the population only accounts for a fraction of the U.S. population, but this population is only a fraction of the size of the U.S. population. But the size of such a population is only a tiny fraction of the total US population. When U.S. citizens need to buy a car, they often have to spend more money to buy a homegrown U.S.-made car. Such behavior is in itself a disregard for the interests of the consumer. In any country, it is the few who hold the bulk of the wealth, while the middle-income or lower-income groups make up the majority of the population. And the United States policy-making groups ignore the actual interests of the majority of the people, relatively protect the interests of a very small number of people, such behavior itself is not in line with the overall interests of the country. So the U.S. political system itself is flawed, it is often difficult to repair the problem from itself, know what the problem is, but from a political point of view should be rational analysis of the problem to solve the problem, from the country's long-term planning to seek a balanced solution, but the U.S. on the 2-party politics, there is no other force can make the 2 parties return to rationality.

@yulu4835
4周前
前提是美國政治製度允許，4年一屆的政策製定者在為競選方向付出極大精力的情況下幾乎不可能。。。現在的兩黨競選壓力已經到了明顯的政治相互打壓的地步了，兩黨的建製派已經壓不住了，而需要做出重大變革的政策又不太可能會出自建製派，矛盾凸顯的越來越嚴重啦。

@michaelchen4879
4周前
China's leaders and scientists know very well to tackle any challenges calmly. They will not get panic. But in the US, politicians only know sanctions after sanctions. What protectionism can do for the good of America's future? Wolf Amendment has been there since 2011. But it is now Bill Nelson asked China  by saying that " Can you share some of the soils and rocks sampled from the far side of the moon with us for our study?" And surprisingly,China have answered :"OK,No problem." What a shame to the US. By contrast, which country is actually way behind?

@cashqian823
3周前
焦慮的不是美國，而是控製美國的財閥

@user-ph2uq4zf9b
3周前（修改過）
是猶太人的焦慮吧!  
猶太人已經控製了美國，美國已經控製了G7，G7已經控製了G20，G20已經控製了世界，隻差俄羅斯與中國 (其他各國都不是問題)，俄羅斯已經進入程序，但是因為中國因素讓這程序變得複雜與冗長，還可能翻盤，中國人真麻煩。
有一批中國人還將猶太人的陰謀公諸於世，協助俄羅斯的金融免於崩潰，協助一些金融戰失敗的國家免於破產，更讓伊朗與沙特達成和解互相建交，真是可惡啊!
最可惡的是有一根刺，直接刺向以色列，刺向猶太人的老巢，這是何等的不敬!

@kangmeisong2390
4周前
You are a true strategist。

@phillee8666
4周前
Trade is two lane street and it has to benefit both partners.  Just like someone going to a restaurant to have a lunch. You will have a good meal but you have to pay the food you eat. The US thinks that they could have a lunch without paying the bill that will benefit the others. That is exactly the colonialism mentality. Who in the world will serve you without pay, slave? If US does not want others to be benefited, stay home. That is even worse, because the whole world may be very glad to know that US will stay home. The whole world will be in peace.

@seabig2353
4周前
直接證明：美元的匯率不是由市場決定的！而是由美國政府決定的！以後美國人也別指責其他國家操縱匯率了！

@kib3571
3周前
得道者多助.... 失道者寡助。

@4-SeasonNature
4周前
Excellent observations

@Elfan97-ec1uk
4周前
Who in their right mind would sanction their largest customer ?

@mtcnew8353
4周前
What does the speaker mean not playing by the rules? For example, is HUAWEI not playing by the rules? If so what rule is HUAWEI not playing by? U.S. uses simply a national security threat to block HUAWEI and in addition, to sanction HUAWEI in every whichever way possible. Can US provide any evidence that HUAWEI is a national security threat? More likely, it’s the tech advances that HUAWEI show that makes US products non competitive. So anytime US is behind is a national security threat that must be blocked. Funny when U.S. was ahead, was there any country that uses this approach against US?

@shawnkuo001
3周前
Very insightful comments

@shengzhizhou4735
3天前
分析的比較理性客觀！

@user-mi5lv8kg5u
3周前
老美少有的有識之士

@williamdeng1870
4周前
A smart American.

@secondthoughtsecondthought3187
4周前（修改過）
Trump在任時對中國進口產品加關稅，包括Nobel經濟學獎得主的無數美國學究都說沒有用。是好事還是壞事各人看法不同，但美國從中國進口商品已大幅度下降。中國的國師們在Biden勝選後興奮的說Biden是被我們搞定的人選。但Biden上台後不但維持著而且還增加了關稅，並且又加上了科技產品和技術的製裁。在言論自由的社會中，這些美國學究們可以隨便表達他們的看法，但他們說得對否和有無效用就是另外一回事了。中國人聽聽心裏舒服就是了，用不著當真。美國和整個西方世界與中俄在經濟上脫釣是大潮流。在上一次冷戰時兩個陣營幾乎沒有經濟來往，然後在過去幾十年中滾在一起你中有我我中有你，結果鬧出無數的糾紛。三十年河東三十年河西，新冷戰巳經開始，將來還是各過各的日子，不再在一起打滾，省得不停的打架。在社會中，互相看著不順眼的兩個人不會來往。價值觀對立的國家們也不可能長時間的滾在一起。

@petertien6
3周前
The real question is: what are your "rules'? The US sets up all kinds of rules and then change them anyqay she wishes and whenever she wants !

@user-wk7qe1bq6z
4周前
A country's development should not be about consumption, but should leverage its strengths and develop its own path by referring to the advantages of other countries.

@user-mh8bc9lr6t
4周前
Welcome to China

@BitKoinETF
3周前
Not playing according to American rules? Spell out your RULES please 

@user-qf2yl7we7k
3周前
Why all the best can only be enjoyed by America? Others are not humans ?

@chchan1069
11天前
 HK$38.00
Thanks!

@MrVodkapowered
3周前
美國以及西方已經忘了怎麽競爭了。

@alextan6551
3周前
China can be a self sufficient coun

@simonjp873
3周前
華盛頓共識的基礎是歐美做高端產業和金融服務，其他國家做原料輸出地，做世界低端製造業工廠，同時做歐美的市場，賺了錢買美國國債，這樣循環，但中國打破了他這個夢想，因為中國人要過上好生活，就不能隻生產成衣和鞋襪，他也要生產新能源產品，汽車，大飛機，芯片半導體，軟件等產品，他也要購買原材料，他也可以提供金融服務

@songyang80
8天前
有需求就能獲取利益， 有獲利就有研究的動力， 中國市場那麽大 美國限製不住的

@user-vp6vf8wm2s
4周前
Play by rules? Here we go again 
Whose rules are you talking about?
What are these rules?
Lay them out
No body in the world know what these rules are, in fact American and the West broke all kinds of rules that were instrumented at the UN, World Trade, World Bank, IMF, you list go on and on.
Human rights, the West and American does not have any leg  to stand on in this subject, slavery trade was number one colonial another nation by extermination of the aboriginal or first native citizens, Australia, America, Canada,. 
War and invading other countries for the name of democracy and national security threads?

@chiangkamsau9632
3周前
尾帝自傲自視，強盜邏輯，阻礙他國進步，自己不跑也不準人跑，尾帝自己昌議平等人權民主又何在？，霸權尾國第一焦慮作怪。不進則退，自強自信自立，中國加油。

@jzllm
2周前
反市場的行為不可持續，而現在的中國似乎更加深諳此道

@wang-rw6cd
3周前
產品最重要的是市場，沒有市場，再好的產品也得不到發展。限製別人不能讓美國更強大

@user-ug2ix2zj5o
4周前
支持華為華為世界第一

@user-nc3oy7ki1l
13天前
What does not kill me, makes me stronger.

@user-hq7ut7bj5i
9天前
中美距離很遠，但中國的文化和美國文化有非常大的差異，美國的成功不可複製，而中國的崛起也無法遏製。世界隻能有一個說了算的老大，中國就算不想爭也沒用。現在亞洲和一些金融較弱的國家正在不可阻擋的想著中國靠攏，支持美國的口號響亮，但腳下的動作卻如此誠實。要想不被別人劫掠，必須有兩大國在爭鬥小日子才舒服。

@yzz2319
11天前
美國的處處設限；才證明中國朝著個方向不放棄是對的；其實也是美國怕中國超越；中國芯片會突破。

@michaelchokhq
3天前
叫醫生開憂鬱藥給美國吧

@herberzh
4周前
The West need to understand that China's political sophistication and intelligence are superior to itself.
In history, China had many political challenges and invasion from external powers. China's history proved that Chinese people have sustained those challenges,  remained on the land, and drive other power out of the area. That's why we had the Great Wall. It becomes the symbol for China's strength and unification. 
The West, on the other hand, need to prove itself that it's political power is sustainable. It need show to the world that there is ONE political power able to retain its position for 500+ years. So far there is none.
This is because the West failed to understand that the "cultural strength" and only emphasis on its military power. The earth is a globe. To conquer the world with force is like the dog chase it's own tail. This is why the US invaded so many small countries, but none of this political and military campaign are successful, or bring any real benefits to US people. 
That's why China's political intelligence is far more superior to the West. Because we have the proven historical experience.

@tongleongsim9202
3周前
治不了,官商深度的捆綁在一起,這是國情所致,自由民主,可以天天辯論,但有各種阻礙難成事.沒錯,中國是個強大的競爭對手.

@user-fc2gr9mx1s
4周前
真正的學者。

@PaPa-cn1rz
4周前
因為無理取鬧，任性非為。

@user-gf1zd7hm1e
3周前
最大製裁是提供便宜又好的產品給對手

@user-dp4oj1hy2y
3周前
Electoral politics has its advantages, but if too much experience and money are spent, it will defeat the purpose. Remember: Elections themselves are not great. Elections are for selecting talents. Only when outstanding talents govern the country can the country develop and progress.
America's elections are now going astray, all about party and individual losses. There is no accountability mechanism for those in power who do something bad, and they can even use various unethical means to continue to win elections.

@user-gx6mo7lk4f
3周前
透過國內物價上漲，完成美元貶值的過程，傳導至美國以外的地方，到美國的商品也都要上漲，
美國賣商品已經上漲造成。

@user-fo2uh4rm5c
4周前
Unless sanctions
meet powerful 
retaliations from
all directions. 
It is a stupid gambling in politics.

@yinshantang
3周前（修改過）
問題是美國執政者並非為國家而隻為選票。做對的事並不能保證取悅選民

@kellee5113
3周前
Why can’t we coexist and complement each other?

@user-yv2cw4oz2n
2周前
自願砸大錢參加軍備競賽、科技競賽、太空競賽、核武競賽、外交競賽，獨自砸大錢來對抗全球一起砸錢，是蘇聯共產的北極圈優良風俗；晶片隻是「科技競賽」裡的一小部份，這種競賽非常有趣，打個比方，中華蘇維埃好不容易湊出270億美元，成立「芯片發展基金」，大部份用來補貼成熟製程，少部分用來補貼高階製程，反觀台積電平均毛利率超過50%，從龐大獲利中抽一小部份出來，300億美元作為明年的資本支出，用來發展地球上還沒出現的新科技，再加上美日歐尖端高科技企業與台積電合作，各自以最尖端的科技基礎，與台積電共同研發下一個世代的科技，中華蘇維埃獨自砸大錢，對抗全球合作一起砸小錢，而每一筆小錢都比中華蘇維埃的270億美元還多，誰會跟蘇聯一樣自己斷氣，隻要有點智商都知道。

@abangjohn653
2周前
the difference was China leads their capitalist while the US is capitalist leads the government.

@dongdongli447
8天前
說實話這兩年美國的做法 反而讓我覺得他們的體製真的是有很多方麵都非常不錯的， 打不過就立法強賣，這說明政府的執行力和為了結果可以不擇手段， 一國最高負責人我覺得都自己下不了床了，各個領域的運轉也沒看到有什麽大問題 說明他體製的韌性和合理性， 我真的不是在諷刺 確實覺得我們一定要更深入的了解和學習他們的一些對我們自身發展有益的地方。