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中國的崛起與全球秩序：對加拿大等中等強國的影響
https://medium.com/centre-for-international-and-defence-policy/chinas-rise-and-the-global-order-implications-for-middle-powers-like-canada-92b341c2c14c ?國際與國防政策中心·
聯係報告 2024 年 2 月 16 日
作者：Anjana Balachandran，渥太華大學
在現代曆史上，很少有事件能像中國的迅速崛起那樣深刻地重塑全球格局。 從經濟實力到不斷擴大的軍事影響力，中國的崛起迫使各國重新調整其外交政策和戰略。 在這個不斷發展的世界秩序中，像加拿大這樣的中等強國麵臨著挑戰和機遇。 加拿大如何適應中國崛起為全球大國的影響，並在新的地緣政治現實中規劃前進道路？
中國崛起的故事深深植根於1978年後的發展軌跡。 在鄧小平的領導下，中國從一個以農業為主的社會轉變為一個經濟大國。 這一變化是在西方列強建立的二戰後國際秩序背景下發生的。 二戰後的秩序也是由蘇聯塑造的，導致世界因冷戰競爭而分裂，超級大國及其盟友建立了不同的勢力範圍和規範。 這一以既定規範和機構為特征的秩序現在發現自己正處於中國影響力日益增長的十字路口。
這個時代引入了重要的製度和框架，例如《聯合國憲章》的主權、貨幣穩定的布雷頓森林體係； 關稅及貿易總協定（關貿總協定）是世界貿易組織（世貿組織）的前身，所有這些都促進自由經濟秩序以及人權和民主價值觀。 隨著中國的崛起，它挑戰了西方領導的霸權和兩極緊張局勢的殘餘，凸顯了國際秩序的複雜性和全球權力轉移的微妙動態。 這一進展挑戰了既定的規範和機構，考驗了二戰後建立的全球框架的彈性，並反映了中國崛起對西方影響力遺產和冷戰時代分歧殘餘的深刻影響。
從曆史上看，植根於皮埃爾·特魯多時代的加中關係經曆了相當多的波動，在相互合作的時期和明顯緊張的時期之間搖擺。 多年來，這種多方麵的關係不斷擴大，不僅包括貿易，還包括文化、學術和體育交流。 盡管有這種擴張，但兩國關係也遇到了一些挑戰。 值得注意的是，在斯蒂芬·哈珀總理任期內，兩國關係經曆了一定程度的動蕩，其特點是在人權、外國投資和安全問題等問題上對中國采取了更加謹慎、有時甚至是批評的立場。 這一時期出現了一些緊張時刻，例如高層訪問推遲和公眾批評凸顯了雙邊接觸的複雜性。
無可否認，加拿大和中國之間的經濟互動至關重要，中國的快速增長使其成為加拿大重要的貿易夥伴。 這種經濟紐帶是通過《外國投資促進和保護協定》（FIPA）等協議正式確立的，旨在加強雙邊投資流動。 然而，這種關係的經濟層麵並非沒有挑戰。 例如，加拿大在 2020 年對中國的出口明顯下降，這是由於全球大流行的破壞和政治緊張局勢升級的共同作用。 這些因素導致了所謂的“經濟動蕩”，此前穩定的貿易和投資增長突然麵臨重大阻力，反映出國際政治經濟中更廣泛的不確定性以及可能影響經濟關係的具體雙邊摩擦。
中國對既定秩序的挑戰是多方麵的。 中國在全球供應鏈中的關鍵作用及其發起的替代性多邊倡議。 在經濟上，隨著中國在全球供應鏈中的關鍵作用以及“一帶一路”等替代性多邊倡議的啟動，擴大了中國的全球足跡。 在政治上，中國對聯合國和地區論壇的貢獻表明了其對多極世界的渴望。 在軍事上，南海及其他地區的活動凸顯了其不斷擴張的野心。 此外，中國的文化和軟實力舉措旨在投射其價值觀和敘事，提供西方意識形態的替代方案。
在數據和信息發揮作用的 21 世紀數字宇宙中
作為強國，網絡安全已成為國際關係的一個重要方麵。 從傳統戰爭到網絡戰爭的轉變從根本上改變了“攻擊”的定義。 國家支持的網絡攻擊不斷升級，導致數字基礎設施和商業係統麵臨嚴重的持續威脅。 盡管如此，公眾對國家行為者網絡行動的認識仍然有限。
例如，2010 年針對伊朗核計劃的 Stuxnet 攻擊就體現了國際權力結構中權力動態的轉變。 從那時起，網絡戰格局迅速發展，速度超過了監管反應。 “五眼聯盟”等國家和情報聯盟越來越多地將網絡安全專家納入其防禦機製。 北約承認網絡安全在國際衝突中的關鍵作用，特別是其在 2014 年宣布嚴重的網絡攻擊可能觸發第 5 條[1]，這反映出國家主導的網絡行動越來越依賴數字專業知識。 然而，在這個快速變化的環境中，國際機構如何對網絡間諜活動進行分類和解決仍然存在很大的不確定性。
安全擔憂在加中關係中日益突出，南海爭端集中體現了中國崛起帶來的地緣政治挑戰。 隨著中國主張領土主張並擴大軍事存在，加拿大麵臨著複雜的外交格局，一邊主張和平解決，一邊應對中國的侵略立場。
對於傳統上與西方列強結盟的加拿大來說，這些事態發展提出了一個難題。 鑒於中國影響力日益增強，平衡經濟機遇與安全關切是一項微妙的外交任務。 加拿大對北約等國際聯盟的依賴在維持力量平衡和維護基於規則的全球秩序方麵發揮著至關重要的作用。
加中關係的一個關鍵方麵是人權問題造成的道德困境，特別是在香港和新疆等地區。 這些問題使加拿大必須權衡其經濟利益與對人權的承諾，這表明各國在與中國等超級大國打交道時麵臨著更廣泛的挑戰。 2019 年香港抗議活動和據報道的新疆嚴重侵犯人權行為（包括大規模拘留維吾爾族穆斯林）之後的鎮壓給加拿大帶來了重大挑戰。 這些情況反映出，在堅持基本人權原則的同時與中國保持戰略關係麵臨著更廣泛的困難，加拿大的外交政策需要采取細致入微和原則性的方法，以有效解決這些有爭議的問題。
中國在全球秩序中占據主導地位的時代不是轉瞬即逝的，而是持久的現實。 對於加拿大這樣的國家來說，這需要采取戰略性的、細致入微的方法。 通過了解挑戰、抓住機遇並堅守價值觀，加拿大可以維護自身利益，並在塑造全球敘事方麵發揮建設性作用。 展望未來，加中關係的軌跡仍存在不確定性。 加拿大必須在其經濟利益和安全關切與其對人權的承諾以及中國全球崛起帶來的挑戰之間取得戰略平衡。 這涉及經濟夥伴關係多元化、加強傳統聯盟以及參與多邊外交。
加中關係象征著現代國際關係的挑戰和機遇。 隨著全球格局不斷變化，加拿大適應、接觸和保持與中國平衡的能力對於塑造其國際地位至關重要。 這種具有曆史深度和當代複雜性的關係無疑將繼續成為加拿大外交政策和全球戰略的關鍵因素。
China's Rise and the Global Order: Implications for Middle Powers Like Canada
By: Anjana Balachandran, University of Ottawa
In modern history, few events have reshaped the global landscape as profoundly as China’s meteoric rise. From its economic prowess to its expanding military footprint, China’s ascent has compelled nations to recalibrate their foreign policies and strategies. Middle powers like Canada face challenges and opportunities in this evolving world order. How can Canada adapt to the implications of China’s emergence as a global power and chart a path forward in this new geopolitical reality?
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing. PMO photograph by Adam Scotti.
The story of China’s rise is deeply rooted in its post-1978 trajectory. Under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, China transformed from a predominantly agrarian society to an economic giant. This change occurred against the backdrop of a post-WWII international order established by Western powers. The post-WWII order, also shaped significantly by the Soviet Union, led to a world bifurcated by Cold War rivalries, establishing distinct spheres of influence and norms by both superpowers and their allies. This order, characterized by established norms and institutions, now finds itself at a crossroads with China’s growing influence.
This era introduced critical institutions and frameworks, such as the United Nations Charter’s sovereignty, the Bretton Woods system for monetary stability; and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a precursor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), all promoting a liberal economic order and the values of human rights and democracy. As China ascends, it challenges both the Western-led hegemony and the bipolar tensions remnants, underscoring the international order’s complexity and the nuanced dynamics of global power shifts. This progression challenges established norms and institutions, testing the resilience of the global framework established in the aftermath of WWII and reflecting the profound implications of China’s rise on both the legacy of Western influence and the remnants of Cold War-era divisions.
Historically, Canada-China relations, rooted in the era of Pierre Trudeau, have seen their fair share of fluctuations, swinging between periods of mutual cooperation and times of palpable tension. This multifaceted relationship has broadened over the years to encompass not just trade but also cultural, academic, and sports exchanges. Despite this expansion, the relationship has encountered its share of challenges. Notably, during the tenure of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, relations experienced a degree of turbulence, characterized by a more cautious and sometimes critical stance towards China on issues ranging from human rights to foreign investment and security concerns. This period saw moments of strain, such as delayed high-level visits and public criticisms that underscored the complexities of bilateral engagement.
Economic interactions between Canada and China have undeniably been pivotal, with China’s rapid growth positioning it as an essential trading partner for Canada. This economic bond was formalized through agreements like the Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA), aimed at enhancing bilateral investment flows. However, the economic dimension of this relationship has not been without its challenges. For instance, Canada experienced a noticeable decline in its exports to China in 2020, a setback attributed to a combination of the global pandemic’s disruptions and escalating political tensions. These factors contributed to what can be described as ‘economic turbulence’, where the previously steady growth in trade and investment faced sudden and significant headwinds, reflecting the broader uncertainties in the international political economy and the specific bilateral frictions that can impact economic ties.
China’s challenge to the established order is multifaceted. with China’s pivotal role in global supply chains and its initiation of alternative multilateral initiatives. Economically, with China’s pivotal role in global supply chains and its initiation of alternative multilateral initiatives like the Belt and Road have expanded China’s global footprint. Politically, China’s contributions to the United Nations and regional forums signal its aspirations for a multipolar world. Militarily, activities in the South China Sea and beyond highlight its expanding ambitions. Furthermore, China’s cultural and soft power initiatives aim to project its values and narratives, presenting an alternative to Western ideologies.
In the 21st century’s digital universe, where data and information work as powerhouses, cybersecurity has emerged as a critical aspect of international relations. The shift from traditional to cyber warfare has fundamentally changed the definition of ‘attack’. State-sponsored cyber-attacks have escalated, leading to advanced persistent threats to digital infrastructure and commerce systems. Despite this, public awareness of state actors’ cyber operations remains limited.
The 2010 Stuxnet attack on Iran’s nuclear program, for example, exemplifies the shift in power dynamics within the international power structure. Since then, the cyber warfare landscape has rapidly evolved, outpacing regulatory responses. Nations and intelligence alliances like Five Eyes have increasingly incorporated cybersecurity experts into their defence mechanisms. NATO’s acknowledgment of cybersecurity’s pivotal role in international conflicts, notably its declaration in 2014 that severe cyberattacks could trigger Article 5[1], reflects the increasing reliance on digital expertise in state-led cyber operations. However, there remains high uncertainty in how international bodies categorize and address cyber espionage in this rapidly changing landscape.
Security concerns have become prominent in the Canada-China relationship, with the South China Sea dispute epitomizing the geopolitical challenges posed by China’s ascent. As China asserts its territorial claims and expands its military presence, Canada faces a complex diplomatic landscape, advocating for peaceful resolutions while navigating China’s aggressive stance.
For Canada, a nation traditionally aligned with Western powers, these developments present a conundrum. Balancing economic opportunities with security concerns in light of China’s growing influence is a delicate diplomatic task. Canada’s reliance on international alliances, such as NATO, plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance of power and upholding a rules-based global order.
A critical aspect of Canada-China relations is the ethical dilemma posed by human rights concerns, particularly in regions like Hong Kong and Xinjiang. These issues place Canada in a position where it must weigh its economic interests against its commitment to human rights, indicative of the broader challenges nations face when engaging with superpowers like China. The crackdown following the 2019 Hong Kong protests and the severe human rights abuses reported in Xinjiang, including mass detentions of Uighur Muslims, present significant challenges for Canada. These situations reflect the broader difficulty of maintaining strategic relations with China while adhering to fundamental human rights principles, necessitating a nuanced and principled approach in Canada’s foreign policy to navigate these contentious issues effectively.
The era of China’s dominance in the global order is not a fleeting moment but a lasting reality. For nations like Canada, this necessitates a strategic, nuanced approach. By understanding the challenges, seizing opportunities, and staying true to its values, Canada can safeguard its interests and play a constructive role in shaping the global narrative. Looking towards the future, the trajectory of Canada-China relations remains uncertain. Canada must strategically balance its economic interests and security concerns with its commitment to human rights and the challenges posed by China’s global ascent. This involves diversifying economic partnerships, strengthening traditional alliances, and engaging in multilateral diplomacy.
The Canada-China relationship is emblematic of the challenges and opportunities that characterize modern international relations. As the global landscape continues to shift, Canada’s ability to adapt, engage, and maintain a balanced approach with China will be crucial in shaping its international standing. This relationship, with its historical depth and contemporary complexities, will undoubtedly continue to be a key factor in Canada’s foreign policy and global strategy.
