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傑弗裏·薩克斯：“美國和歐洲從來都不是非洲可靠的合作夥伴”
https://www.classfmonline.com/business/Jeffrey-Sachs-US-Europe-never-been-reliable-partners-for-Africa-48525
傑弗裏·薩克斯 2024 年 1 月 10 日
傑弗裏·薩克斯
以“宏觀經濟休克療法”而聞名的美國經濟學家傑弗裏·薩克斯在一本關於可持續發展目標的新書中轉向倫理學。
在此，他闡述了非洲聯盟、金磚四國和其他大陸機構必須如何引領發展中國家建立新的金融架構。
以4%的相對較低利率重新安排非洲國家的債務期限30年； 向富裕國家征稅，不僅因為它們“對氣候變化的曆史責任”，而且還因為“竊取非洲的資源”：美國經濟學家、哥倫比亞大學教授傑弗裏·薩克斯（Jeffrey Sachs）在哥倫比亞大學擔任可持續發展中心的負責人。 國際經濟界以其直接且往往大膽的公式而聞名。
前聯合國秘書長特別顧問（2001 年至 2018 年）、暢銷書《貧困的終結》（2005 年）的作者，因其在發展中國家實施宏觀經濟休克療法中的作用而聞名。
他也是對抗世界饑餓、文盲以及最近的環境退化問題的專家。
薩克斯於 2022 年 12 月出版了他與幾位學者合著的最新著作《可持續發展的倫理實踐》，書中提供了不同信仰的宗教領袖與跨學科研究人員和實踐者之間的深入對話，以尋求一種倫理道德。 就如何實現可持續發展目標（SDG）達成共識。
在這次采訪中，這位市場經濟的捍衛者對非洲大陸的現狀及其前景做出了診斷——非洲在全球化世界中，並應對其自身的挑戰。
傑弗裏·薩克斯：世界在實現可持續發展目標方麵遠遠落後。 主要問題是財務問題之一。 可持續發展目標是教育、醫療保健、零碳能源、可持續農業、城市基礎設施和數字經濟領域的投資議程。 這六種投資類別需要花錢，但世界上較貧窮的一半國家（低收入和中低收入國家）需要更多的融資來實現可持續發展目標。
我們需要對全球金融架構進行根本性改革。 非洲聯盟在 G21 中的成員身份（於 2023 年被接納為新成員）對於新金融架構的談判非常重要，金磚國家（主要新興市場和發展中國家的夥伴關係）也將如此。
那麽，金磚國家決定於2023年在約翰內斯堡擴大國家範圍，您認為這是積極的嗎？
我是金磚國家的堅定支持者。 我確實希望他們能夠很好地合作，特別是中國和印度，因為如果這樣的話，金磚國家將有助於建立一個更加公平的世界。
非洲國家如何平衡經濟發展與環境可持續性的需求，特別是麵對氣候變化的挑戰？
非洲需要大量資金來應對損失和損害以及適應。 這應該以富裕國家支付的形式出現，資金來源是對富裕國家碳排放征收的全球稅。 損失和損害賠償基金現已設立。 美國投入了 1750 萬美元，相當於五角大樓 9 分鍾的開支。 美國的傲慢無邊無際。 美國每年應繳納約 250 億美元的稅，即每噸二氧化碳排放量約 5 美元。
您認為外國援助在促進非洲經濟發展方麵發揮了什麽作用？
對外援助發揮的作用不大。 富裕國家提供的財政支持太少。 這些富裕國家不應該稱之為援助，而應該根據其對氣候變化和濫用全球體係的曆史責任來征稅——例如竊取非洲的資源和殖民主義的罪惡、政權更迭行動、政治暗殺等。 美國和歐洲列強對盧蒙巴、卡紮菲等人的製裁。
據世界銀行統計，自 1960 年以來，已有 1.5 萬億美元的公共發展援助流向非洲。如何優化這些援助以獲得更有效的成果？
正如我所說，全球金融架構需要大規模革新，以便資本從富國流向窮國。 部分原因是降低美元在全球交易中的主導地位。 金磚國家將幫助實現這一目標。
非洲主要需要兩件事：作為非洲聯盟的內部團結，以及與中國、印度、阿拉伯國家和拉丁美洲的良好外交關係。
您因在 20 世紀 90 年代末在布雷頓森林機構中的不妥協立場而聞名。 您認為世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織 2023 年 10 月在馬拉喀什表達的變革意願是真誠的嗎？
美國正在抵製國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行的真正改革
因為真正的改革意味著中國、印度、俄羅斯和其他國家將獲得更多的投票權。 歐洲將失去投票權，美國將失去否決權。 這些變化將以某種方式影響國際體係。
您如何看待越來越多的非洲國家正在擺脫與西方（主要是美國和歐洲）的曆史聯係，例如為了俄羅斯的利益？
我認為非洲需要兩件主要的事情。 首先，非洲聯盟內部團結，擁有單一市場和在內部連接非洲所有地區的實體基礎設施（公路、鐵路、光纖、電網）。 其次，非洲需要與中國、印度、阿拉伯國家和拉美地區建立良好的外交關係。
美國和歐洲從來都不是非洲可靠和強有力的合作夥伴。 太多的貪婪、自私和帝國遺產的玷汙。 也許這會改變。 它需要改變。
債務是 2024 年非洲麵臨的最大挑戰之一。您建議采取哪些可持續債務管理和減免戰略，以促進經濟穩定和增長？
陷入債務困境的國家賬上的所有債務都應以 4% 的固定利率（以美元計）延長 30 年。 這應該適用於欠世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織、區域開發銀行和雙邊債權人的債務。 隻要有可能（取決於集體行動條款的條款），各國還應重組其 30 年期私人債券。 未來，所有開發融資的期限應至少為30年。
您是否像世界銀行那樣認為 2024 年將是非洲債務違約之年？ 繼讚比亞、加納之後……埃及、索馬裏、突尼斯等地也存在一些風險。
正如我所說，所有這些國家的債務重組都應該持續至少30年。
與此同時，撒哈拉以南非洲地區正在為今年經濟增長的小幅增長做準備。 非洲經濟如何利用技術和創新來刺激增長並解決失業和收入不平等等問題？
每個還沒有國家科學技術基金的非洲國家都應立即設立國家科學技術基金，支持至少占國內生產總值1%的研究和開發。 無論是最貧窮的國家還是最富裕的國家都應該如此。
非洲需要教育複興。 這首先是為每個孩子提供公費的教育機會。
非盟一開始也應該在聯盟層麵設立一項基金，規模至少為每年250億美元。 非洲需要在人工智能、疾病、生態、氣候、農業等廣泛的主題上進行自己的研發。
鑒於最近 Covid-19 大流行的經驗，非洲國家應采取哪些步驟來加強其醫療保健係統並加強大流行病的防備？
非洲的醫療保健係統應以社區衛生服務為基礎，並由人工智能和數字係統支持社區衛生工作者。
遠程醫療可以極大地加強服務提供。 歐洲和中東的外籍醫生應該在一年中的部分時間返回非洲提供公共服務。
這不是太理想化了嗎？
我想更進一步：他們在美國、歐洲和中東繳納的稅款應該匯到非洲，以幫助支付醫療費用。
教育在經濟轉型中發揮什麽作用？非洲國家如何改進教育體係以滿足快速變化的全球經濟的需求？
教育是非洲最重要的投資。 基本標準應該是：100%的兒童完成高中教育。 至少 30% 完成高中教育的兒童應該繼續攻讀學士學位。 非洲需要教育複興。 這首先是為每個孩子提供公費的教育機會。 如有必要，非洲國家應承擔新的長期債務，以確保普及中等教育。
青年失業是許多非洲國家麵臨的重大挑戰。 您建議采取哪些策略來為年輕人創造有意義的就業機會？
教育和技能，然後是充滿活力的經濟，在公共和私營部門雇用受過良好教育和高技能的年輕人。 不過，關鍵是技能。
私營部門也應該參與非洲大陸的經濟發展。 哪些政策可以鼓勵非洲大陸負責任的商業行為？
私營部門將在四個條件下快速、動態地擴張：訓練有素的勞動力； 良好的基礎設施，特別是電力、數字、水利、鐵路和公路； 單一的非洲市場，貨物可以在整個非洲快速且免關稅運輸； 與中國、印度、拉丁美洲、土耳其、阿拉伯國家以及金磚國家開放投資關係。
您在多大程度上相信區域一體化和合作
非洲國家間的合作對於可持續經濟發展至關重要？
非洲團結至關重要。 非洲有 14 億人口，到 2050 年將達到 25 億左右。這是一個巨大、年輕、充滿活力的市場。 單一市場將是非洲未來發展的巨大 — — 實際上是至關重要的 — — 推動力。
在此背景下，非洲經濟如何確保經濟增長的包容性，惠及廣大人民並減少收入不平等？
同樣，這裏有幾個關鍵條件：普遍獲得優質教育； 普遍獲得公共醫療保健； 普遍獲得優質城市基礎設施； 健全的退休金製度以保障退休收入； 和平; 結束對婦女和少數群體的歧視； 為有幼兒、殘疾人、貧困人口和老年人的家庭提供社會保護。
非洲2023-2063年的發展軌跡可以像中國1980-2020年的發展軌跡一樣。 非洲具備快速增長時期的條件。
所有這一切都需要強有力的預算和可靠的稅收，以及富裕國家與其曆史義務相稱的付款。
數字經濟難道不能在促進非洲的金融包容性和經濟賦權方麵發揮作用嗎？ 哪些政策可以促進這一轉變？
數字經濟是全球發展的重要均衡器。 印度隨著在支付、政府服務、教育、醫療保健和其他活動中部署數字技術而蓬勃發展。
非洲需要堅實的光纖網絡、與全球骨幹網的強大連接、5G以及大力支持數字經濟的非盟領導力。
您建議非洲國家采取哪些戰略來從 Covid-19 大流行的影響中恢複經濟並增強抵禦未來危機的能力？
非洲需要一個40年計劃，即2023-2063年，以便到2063年成為高收入地區，並成為世界經濟的主要組成部分。 這個有可能。 非洲2023-2063年的發展軌跡可以像中國1980-2020年的發展軌跡一樣。 非洲具備快速增長時期的條件。 為了實現這一目標，非洲需要沿著我之前概述的六個優先領域轉向高投資模式。 教育和技能將成為非洲經濟活力最重要的引擎。
農業也是許多非洲經濟體的重要部門。 這些國家如何實現農業轉型，以加強糧食安全並促進經濟增長？
農業現在是一個高技能、資本密集、信息密集的部門。 非洲需要部署機械化、人工智能、大數據、灌溉、農作物新品種等，實現農業升級。 隨著機器和人工智能取代低技能農業工人，農業勞動力的比例將大幅下降。 沒關係。 大多數工作的未來都在城市，而不是農村地區。 未來非洲的城市化將會非常迅速。
非洲國家如何解決腐敗問題並改善治理，創造有利於經濟可持續發展的環境？
腐敗的關鍵是透明度、在線政府係統、數字經濟和訓練有素的公務員隊伍。 此外，跨國公司需要誠實納稅。 大部分腐敗發生在采礦和碳氫化合物行業。 應特別關注這些國際部門，因為它們非常濫用權力，並向政府官員行賄。
Jeffrey Sachs: 'US, Europe never been reliable partners for Africa'
Jeffrey Sachs January 10, 2024
Jeffrey SachsHere, he expounds on how the African Union, the BRICs and other continental bodies must lead the push towards a new financial architecture for developing countries.
Reschedule the debts of African countries over a period of 30 years, at a relatively low rate of 4%; tax rich countries for their “historical responsibility for climate change”, but also for “stealing Africa’s resources”: The American economist Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University, where he heads the Center for Sustainable Development, has made a name for himself in the international economic community with his direct and often bold formulas.
The former special adviser to the secretaries-general of the United Nations (from 2001 to 2018) and author of the best-selling The End of Poverty (2005) is renowned for his role in implementing macroeconomic shock therapy in developing countries.
He is also a specialist in the fight against world hunger, illiteracy and, more recently, environmental degradation.
In his latest book, published in December 2022, Ethics in Action for Sustainable Development, which he co-wrote with several academics, Sachs offers an in-depth conversation between religious leaders of different faiths and interdisciplinary researchers and practitioners, in search of an ethical consensus on how to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In this interview, the champion of the market economy gives his diagnosis of the state of the continent and its prospects – for Africa in a globalised world, and tackling its own challenges.
Jeffrey Sachs: The world is lagging far behind in achieving the SDGs. The main question is one of finance. The SDGs are an investment agenda, in education, healthcare, zero-carbon energy, sustainable agriculture, urban infrastructure and the digital economy. These six investment categories cost money, but the poorer half of the world – the low-income and lower-middle income countries – needs much more financing to achieve the SDGs.
We need a fundamental overhaul of the global financial architecture. The African Union’s membership in the G21 [it was admitted as a new member in 2023] will be very important in negotiating a new financial architecture, so too will be the BRICS [a partnership of leading emerging markets and developing countries].
You see it as positive, then, that the BRICS decided to enlarge its sphere of countries in Johannesburg in 2023?
I’m a strong supporter of the BRICS. I do hope that they can work well together, especially China and India, because if so, the BRICS will help to make a much fairer world.
How can African?nations balance economic?development?with?the need?for environmental?sustainability, especially?in the face of climate-change challenges??
Africa needs substantial financing for losses and damages and for adaptation. This should come in the form of payments from the rich countries, funded by global taxes on carbon emissions of the rich countries. The Losses and Damages Fund has now been established. The US put in $17.5m, equal to nine minutes of Pentagon spending. The US arrogance knows no bounds. The US should be taxed for around $25bn per year, roughly $5 per ton of CO2 emission.
In your view, what?role?does?foreign?aid?play?in fostering?economic?development?in Africa?
Foreign aid plays a modest role. There is far too little financial support from rich countries. Rather than call it aid, these rich countries should be taxed in line with their historical responsibility for climate change and for the abuses of the global system – such as stealing Africa’s resources and the sins of colonialism, regime-change operations, political assassinations such as those of Lumumba, Gaddafi, etc., by the US and European powers.
According to the World Bank, $1.5trn of public development aid has gone to Africa since 1960. How can this aid be?optimised?for more effective outcomes??
As I was saying, the global financial architecture needs a massive renovation so that capital flows from rich to poor countries. Part of this will be to reduce the dominant role of the US dollar in global transactions. BRICS will help make that happen.
Africa needs two main things: internal unity as the African Union, and good diplomatic relations with China, India, the Arab states and Latin America.
You are known for your uncompromising position on the Bretton Woods institutions, in which you worked at the end of the 1990s. Do you think the will to change that the World Bank and IMF expressed in Marrakech in October 2023 is genuine?
The US is resisting real reform of the IMF and the World Bank because real reform would mean that China, India, Russia and other countries would gain much more voting weight. Europe would lose its voting weight, the US would lose its veto power. These changes will come to the international system, one way or another.
What do you think of the fact?that?more and more African?countries are breaking off their?historical?attachments?to?the West (the US and Europe mostly),?to the benefit?of Russia,?for example?
I think that Africa needs two main things. First, internal unity as the African Union, with a single market and with physical infrastructure (roads, rail, fibre, power grid) that connects all parts of Africa internally. Second, Africa needs good diplomatic relations with China, India, the Arab states and Latin America.
The US and Europe have never been reliable and robust partners for Africa. Too much greed, self-interest, and taint of imperial legacy. Perhaps that will change. It needs to change.
Debt is one of the greatest challenges for Africa in 2024. What?strategies?do you?recommend?for sustainable?debt?management and relief to promote?economic?stability?and growth??
All debts on the books of debt-distressed countries should be extended for 30 years at a 4% fixed interest rate (in USD). This should apply to debts owed to the World Bank, IMF, regional development banks, and bilateral creditors. Wherever possible (depending on the terms of collective action clauses) countries should also restructure their private bonds for 30-year maturities. In the future, all development finance should be at maturities of at least 30 years.
Do you?think, as the World Bank does?for example, that?2024 will?be?the year?of debt?default in Africa? After?Zambia, Ghana… There are some?risks?in Egypt, Somalia, Tunisia?etc.?
As I have said, all of these countries should have their debts restructured for at least 30 years.
At the same time, sub-Saharan Africa is preparing for a slight uptick in economic growth this year. How can African?economies?leverage?technology?and innovation to spur?growth?and address?issues such?as unemployment?and income?inequality??
Every African country that does not yet have one should immediately establish a National Science and Technology Fund to support at least 1% of GDP in research and development. That should be true in the poorest as well as the richest countries.
Africa needs an education renaissance. This starts with educational opportunity – at public expense – for every child.
The African Union should establish a fund at the union level also at the scale of at least $25bn per year at the start. Africa needs to undertake its own R&D on a wide range of topics: AI, disease, ecology, climate, agriculture, and more.
Given?the recent?experience with the Covid-19 pandemic, what?steps?should?African?nations take?to strengthen?their?healthcare?systems?and enhance?pandemic?preparedness??
Africa’s healthcare system should be based on community health delivery, with community health workers bolstered by AI and digital systems.
Telemedicine can greatly strengthen service delivery. Expatriate doctors in Europe and the Middle East should come back to Africa part of the year for public service.
Isn’t that rather idealistic?
I’d go even further: the taxes they pay in the US, Europe, and Middle East should be remitted to Africa to help cover healthcare costs.
What?role?does?education?play?in economic?transformation, and how can African?nations improve?their?education?systems?to meet?the demands?of a rapidly?changing?global economy??
Education is the single most important investment for Africa. The basic standard should be this: 100% of children should complete upper-secondary education. At least 30% of children finishing upper-secondary education should go on for a bachelor’s degree. Africa needs an education renaissance. This starts with educational opportunity – at public expense – for every child. African countries should take on new long-term debt if necessary to ensure universal secondary education.
Youth?unemployment?is?a significant?challenge in many?African?countries. What?strategies?do you?recommend?to create?meaningful?employment?opportunities?for the youth??
Education and skills and then a dynamic economy to hire well-educated and high-skilled youth in both public and private sectors. The key, though, is skilling.
The private sector should also participate in the continent’s economic development. What?policies?would?encourage responsible?business practices on the continent??
The private sector will expand rapidly and dynamically under four conditions: a well-trained labour force; good infrastructure, notably power, digital, water, rail, and roads; a single African market, in which goods can be shipped quickly and tariff-free across Africa; and open investment relations with China, India, Latin America, Turkey, and the Arab Nations and with the BRICS.
To what?extent?do you?believe?regional?integration?and cooperation?among?African?nations are critical?for sustainable?economic?development??
African unity is essential. Africa is 1.4 billion people, and will be around 2.5 billion people by 2050. This is an enormous, young, dynamic market. A single market will be a great – indeed vital – propellant of Africa’s development in the future.
In this context, how can African?economies?ensure?that?economic?growth?is?inclusive, benefiting?a broad?spectrum?of the population and reducing?income?inequality??
Here again, there are several key conditions: universal access to quality education; universal access to public healthcare; universal access to quality urban infrastructure; a robust pension system for retirement income; peace; an end to discrimination against women and against minority groups; and social protection for families with young children, disabled, indigent, and elderly populations.
Africa’s trajectory during 2023-2063 can be like China’s during 1980-2020. Africa has the makings of a fast-growth period.
All of this requires a robust budget and solid tax collections, as well as payments by the rich countries commensurate with their historical obligations.
Doesn’t the digital economy?also have a role to play?in fostering?financial?inclusion and economic?empowerment?in Africa? What?policies?can facilitate?this?transition??
The digital economy is the great equaliser in global development. India is booming as it deploys digital technologies – for payments, government services, education, healthcare and other activities.
Africa needs a solid fibre network, strong connectivity with the global backbone, 5G and an AU leadership that strongly supports the digital economy.
What?strategies?do you?recommend for African?nations to recover?economically?from?the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic?and build?resilience?against?future crises??
Africa needs a 40-year plan, 2023-2063 to become a high-income region by 2063, and a major part of the world economy. This is possible. Africa’s trajectory during 2023-2063 can be like China’s during 1980-2020. Africa has the makings of a fast-growth period. To achieve this, Africa needs to move to a high-investment mode along the six priority areas that I outlined earlier. Education and skills will be the most important engines of Africa’s economic dynamics.
Agriculture is?also an important sector?for many?African?economies. How can these?nations achieve?agricultural transformation to enhance?food?security?and contribute?to economic?growth??
Agriculture is now a high-skill, capital-intensive, information-intensive, sector. Africa needs to deploy mechanisation, artificial intelligence, big data, irrigation, new crop varieties, etc., to upgrade agriculture. The share of the workforce that is in agriculture will plummet as machines and AI replace low-skilled agricultural workers. That’s okay. The future of most jobs is in cities, not in rural areas. Africa will urbanise very rapidly in the future.
How can African?nations address?issues of corruption and improve?governance?to create?an environment?conducive?to sustainable?economic?development??
The key to corruption is transparency, online government systems, digital economy, and trained civil services. Also, the multinational companies need to pay their taxes honestly. Much of the corruption is in the mining and hydrocarbons sector. Special attention should be paid to these international sectors as they are very abusive and pay large bribes to government officials.
