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[Highlights]
慕尼黑安全會議：歐盟地緣政治議程的四個任務
25.02.2024 Josep Borrell，歐洲外交與安全政策高級代表
目前在我們的議程上的第三個戰略問題是關於我們與所謂的“全球南方”國家的關係。 我知道“全球南方”一詞涵蓋了非常不同的現實，但是它仍然引發了一個真正的問題。 如果當前的全球地緣政治緊張局勢繼續朝著“西方抗其他人”的方向發展，那麽歐洲的未來風險是黯淡的。 西方統治的時代確實已經明確結束了。 盡管從理論上理解了這一點，但我們並不總是從這個新現實中得出所有實際結論。
正如我們最近在薩赫勒（Sahel）和非洲其他地方看到的那樣，對烏克蘭戰爭的戰爭與加沙戰爭的結合大大增加了這一風險。 “全球南方”中的許多人指責我們“雙重標準”。 盡管俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略戰爭通常是帝國主義和殖民主義者，但俄羅斯設法利用了這種情況。 我們需要拒絕這種敘述，而且不僅要用言語解決這個問題：在接下來的幾個月中，我們必須付出巨大的努力來贏得合作夥伴的信任。
Munich Security Conference: the four tasks on the EU's geopolitical agenda
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/munich-security-conference-four-tasks-eu%E2%80%99s-geopolitical-agenda_en#top
25.02.2024 Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
The third strategic issue currently on our agenda is about our relations with the so-called “Global South” countries. I know that the term "Global South" encompasses very different realities, but it nevertheless raises a real issue. If the current global geopolitical tensions continue to evolve in the direction of "the West against the Rest", Europe’s future risks to be bleak. The era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended. While this has been theoretically understood, we have not always drawn all practical conclusions from this new reality.
The combination of the war of aggression against Ukraine and the war in Gaza has significantly increased this risk, as we have recently seen in the Sahel and elsewhere in Africa. Many in the “Global South” accuse us of “double standards”. Russia has managed to take advantage of the situation although its war of aggression against Ukraine is typically an imperialist and colonialist one. We need to push back on this narrative but also to address this issue not only with words: in the coming months, we must make a massive effort to win back the trust of our partners.
歐盟外交政策負責人承認"西方主導地位已經結束",並警告"西方對抗其他國家"地緣政治
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/02/26/western-dominance-ending-eu-josep-borrell/
作者：本·諾頓 2024年2月25日
歐盟最高外交官何塞普·博雷爾承認，"西方主導的時代確實已經徹底結束"。 他警告說，歐盟絕不能將世界分成“西方與其他國家”，因為“‘南半球’中的許多人指責我們‘雙重標準’”。
七國集團峰會2023年日廣島
2023 年七國集團領導人峰會在日本廣島舉行
歐洲最高外交官承認“西方主導的時代確實已經徹底結束”。
歐盟外交事務高級代表何塞普·博雷爾2月25日在歐盟外交部門官網發表博文表示。
他警告說：“如果當前的全球地緣政治緊張局勢繼續朝著‘西方對抗其他國家’的方向發展，歐洲的未來將麵臨黯淡的風險。”
博雷爾表示，烏克蘭和加沙的戰爭，以及非洲薩赫勒地區的反殖民起義，“大大增加了歐洲在地緣政治上變得無關緊要的風險”，並感歎“俄羅斯已經成功地利用了這一局勢”。
這位歐洲外交政策負責人透露，“改善我們與‘全球南方’的關係”是“歐盟地緣政治議程上的四項主要任務”之一。
“‘南半球’的許多人指責我們‘雙重標準’”，他承認。
何塞普·博雷爾 歐盟時代西方統治結束
博雷爾以偶爾發表坦率評論而聞名，他承認大多數歐洲外交官都沒有說出來的令人難以忽視的事實。
2022年，歐盟外交政策負責人坦言，“我們的繁榮基於中國和俄羅斯——能源和市場”，“來自俄羅斯的廉價能源”和“進入中國大市場”是歐洲經濟的基石 。
然而，博雷爾堅持認為歐洲不得將世界分為“西方與其他國家”，這與他在 2024 年 2 月的同一篇文章中堅持歐盟必須擴大“與主要夥伴，特別是美國的合作”相矛盾。
這位歐洲高級外交官寫道，“最近幾個月提醒我們，北約對我們的集體防禦仍然非常重要”，並呼籲加強以美國為首的軍事集團。
2023年，頗具影響力的智庫歐洲外交關係委員會發表了題為《附庸的藝術》的白皮書。 它警告“歐洲將成為美國的附庸”，並指出烏克蘭戰爭“暴露了歐洲人對美國的深刻依賴”。
歐盟外交政策負責人確實認識到“西方與其他國家對立”是錯誤的，但他同時呼籲深化美國和歐洲之間的跨大西洋聯盟，這隻會加劇地緣政治分歧。
西方與聯合國其他國家
在國際舞台上，歐洲頻頻與美國一道違背國際社會意願。
在聯合國，美國和歐洲經常一起投票，而絕大多數位於南半球的成員國則投反對票。
聯合國投票國家平均 美國 中國
資料來源：阿拉斯泰爾·伊恩·約翰斯頓，“秩序世界中的中國：重新思考北京國際關係中的合規與挑戰”，《國際安全》（2019 年）
從1983年到2012年，美國在聯合國大會上僅在32.7%的時間裏與世界上大多數國家一起投票。
1988年，隻有15.4%的聯大投票與美國的投票一致。
歐洲是世界上唯一一貫投票支持美國的地區。
聯合國投票同意美國
2023年11月，西方在聯合國大會有關民主、人權、文化多樣性、雇傭軍和單方麵強製措施（製裁）的決議中對世界絕大多數國家投了反對票。
2023年4月，西方在聯合國人權理事會上再次集體投票反對其他國家，捍衛違反國際法的單邊製裁。
2022年12月，西方在聯合國大會呼籲建立新的國際經濟秩序的投票中投票反對地球其他國家。
慕尼黑安全會議：歐盟地緣政治議程上的四項任務
2024年2月25日 何塞普·博雷爾，歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表/歐盟委員會副主席
HR/VP 博客 – 上周，在慕尼黑安全會議 (MSC) 上，我提出了歐盟地緣政治議程上的四項主要任務：更多、更快地支持烏克蘭； 結束加沙的人道主義災難並實施兩國解決方案； 改善我們與“全球南方”的關係並加強我們的國防和安全。 我還與來自世界各地的合作夥伴進行了大量雙邊會議。今年，慕尼黑的氣氛特別凝重。 正如我兩年前在介紹《戰略指南針》時所說，兩場戰爭近在眼前，世界各地還有許多其他火藥桶，每個人終於意識到歐洲正處於危險之中。
在會議的第一天，我們了解到阿列克謝·納瓦爾尼在西伯利亞的一個流放地疑似死亡，他在那裏被普京總統慢慢謀殺。 我見到了他的妻子，並邀請她參加上周一的外交事務委員會，我們向阿列克謝·納瓦爾尼致敬，她向我們介紹了俄羅斯政治局勢的最新情況。
在慕尼黑期間，我還與聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·古特雷斯、哥倫比亞總統古斯塔沃·佩特羅、中國外交部長王毅、印度外長尚卡爾、 土耳其外交部長哈坎·菲達姆和美國參議員克裏斯·範·霍倫。 我與塞爾維亞總統武契奇和科索沃總理庫爾蒂在單獨的會議上討論了如何緩和緊張局勢，但不幸的是沒有成功。
我多次會見黎巴嫩總理米卡提、沙特阿拉伯外長費薩爾親王、埃及外長舒克裏、海合會秘書長阿布代維、艾德等，討論中東局勢 ，挪威外交部長。 我們的重點是結束加沙戰鬥，釋放人質，緩解加沙地帶人道主義災難，避免衝突在該地區蔓延，並推動有效落實兩國解決方案。
我還在一次全體會議上就“歐盟下一個地緣政治議程”提出了自己的看法。 雖然我們的優先事項不斷因事件而改變，但目前我們的議程中占據主導地位的是四個項目：俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭的戰爭和加沙再次爆發的戰爭，這兩個問題都直接將歐盟的安全置於危險之中。 另外兩個結構性問題也需要采取緊急行動：改善我們與所謂的“全球南方”的關係以及加強我們的國防和安全能力。
更多更快地支持烏克蘭
關於烏克蘭，俄羅斯作為帝國主義和殖民主義列強對烏克蘭發動侵略戰爭已經過去了兩年多的時間。 烏克蘭正麵臨一場曠日持久、高強度的戰爭，雙方傷亡不斷增加。 我們決不能讓俄羅斯的侵略行為得到回報。 如果普京獲勝，這將向全球發出一個非常危險的信號，即強國可以單方麵改變邊界。
這場戰爭使我們處於一種需要采取與平常和平時期完全不同的做法的境地。 我們必須轉向更加敏捷、更加投入和更加專注。 如果我們在未來幾個月內不采取足夠迅速的行動，烏克蘭就有失去陣地的風險。 我們必須更多、更快地支持烏克蘭，特別是在火炮彈藥方麵。 現在就需要它們，而不是幾個月後。 目前的問題不再是真正缺乏彈藥生產能力；而是真正的彈藥生產能力不足。 相反，這是資金和訂單的短缺。
我們正在目睹一種新型戰爭：一場讓人想起第一次世界大戰的戰壕和星球大戰的機器人的戰爭。 技術，特別是無人機和人工智能正在塑造這場戰爭的結果。 我們需要想方設法為烏克蘭提供最新的技術發展。 我最近訪問烏克蘭期間，參觀的無人機工廠給我留下了深刻的印象。 我們還必須為自己汲取這種新戰爭方式的後果，並加大對國防創新的投資。
我們還必須向烏克蘭提供長期安全承諾。 歐盟成員國已經簽署了相應的雙邊協議，我們也將在歐盟層麵這樣做。 我們繼續努力在歐洲和平基金內設立一個新的專用烏克蘭援助基金，以保證對該國的長期軍事支持。 然而，歐盟可以給予烏克蘭的最重要的安全承諾是歐盟成員國身份。 去年 12 月，歐洲理事會為此開辟了道路，我們必須繼續充分致力於這一進程。
結束加沙戰鬥並實施兩國解決方案
在中東，歐盟的安全風險也非常高。 如果我們不能幫助結束加沙人為的人道主義災難並最終實施兩國解決方案，這場衝突就有可能點燃整個地區。 這對歐洲的影響將在許多方麵產生深遠的影響：移民、恐怖主義、內部緊張局勢、能源危機、海上航線中斷，正如我們在紅海所目睹的那樣……
鑒於正在發生的重大人道主義災難，結束加沙戰鬥顯然是最緊迫的任務。 不過，東耶路撒冷和約旦河西岸的局勢也非常令人擔憂。 升針對巴勒斯坦人的暴力程度此前已經非常高，自 10 月 7 日以來急劇升級。 約旦河西岸正在沸騰，如果近東救濟工程處必須停止支持巴勒斯坦人民，我們可能即將發生重大爆炸。 從實施兩國方案來看，西岸和東耶路撒冷實際上是主要障礙。 為了尋求第二天的政治解決方案，我們不能隻關注加沙，而應關注所有被占領的巴勒斯坦領土。
歐盟能否為地區和平發揮作用，最終落實我們30多年來一直倡導的兩國解決方案？ 我堅信我們可以。 這不僅是可能的，也是我們的責任和利益。 我們已經與許多重要的區域行為體進行了接觸，特別是通過 10 月 7 日之前發起的和平日倡議。 然而，為了取得成功，我們需要更加團結，就像我們一直支持烏克蘭一樣。 在中東問題上，我們看到了更加多樣化的做法，許多成員國似乎更願意推行自己的戰略。
阿拉伯國家正在準備一項新的和平倡議，我們最近與我們的阿拉伯夥伴進行了很多討論，包括在一月份的外交事務委員會和地中海安全會議上。 我們正在等待他們的正式建議，之後我們應該共同努力，有效落實兩國方案。 如果巴勒斯坦人沒有結束占領和建立自己國家的明確前景，中東就不會有和平，以色列也不會有真正的安全。 從長遠來看，僅靠軍事手段無法保證安全。
改善我們與“南半球”的聯係
目前我們議程上的第三個戰略問題是我們與所謂“全球南方”國家的關係。 我知道“全球南方”一詞包含了截然不同的現實，但它仍然提出了一個真正的問題。 如果當前全球地緣政治緊張局勢繼續朝著“西方對抗其他國家”的方向發展，歐洲的未來將麵臨暗淡的風險。 西方統治的時代確實已經徹底結束。 雖然這在理論上已經被理解，但我們並不總是從這個新現實中得出所有實際結論。
正如我們最近在薩赫勒地區和非洲其他地區所看到的那樣，侵略烏克蘭的戰爭和加沙戰爭的結合大大增加了這種風險。 “南半球”的許多人指責我們實行“雙重標準”。 盡管俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略戰爭是典型的帝國主義和殖民主義戰爭，但俄羅斯卻成功地利用了這一局勢。 我們需要反駁這種說法，而且不僅要用言語來解決這個問題：在接下來的幾個月裏，我們必須付出巨大的努力來贏回合作夥伴的信任。
加強我們的國防能力和國防工業
最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們需要大力加強我們的安全和國防能力。 顯然，我們尤其必須做好與俄羅斯長期緊張關係的準備，俄羅斯可能會在未來幾個月內升級對北約國家的政治和軍事挑釁。 這已經成為我過去四年工作的核心：作為高級代表，我不僅負責歐盟共同外交和安全政策，還負責共同安全和防務政策，自 2019 年以來，我專門負責歐盟共同外交和安全政策。 為了這個第二維度付出了很多努力。
在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，我們啟動了戰略指南針——新的歐盟安全和防務戰略——因為我確信“歐洲處於危險之中”。 當時，沒有人真正注意到或認識到事態的嚴重性。 現在，歐洲防務重新成為公眾辯論的中心，而不僅僅是在地中海安全會議上。 確實如此。
我近年來多次闡述，歐洲經曆了長期的無聲裁軍，軍事能力逐漸喪失，而我們的國防工業卻出現了危險的萎縮。 我們現在已經開始扭轉這一趨勢。 過去十年來，我們的國防預算再次增長。 自從俄羅斯侵略戰爭開始以來，我們已經開始重啟我們的國防工業：我們的火炮彈藥生產能力增長了40%。 雖然還有很長的路要走，但我們正朝著正確的方向前進。
我們必須與主要夥伴，特別是美國合作，維持這些努力。 最近幾個月提醒我們，北約對於我們的集體防禦仍然非常重要，但也需要像我們的美國朋友一直要求的那樣，加強其歐洲支柱。 美國未來參與歐洲安全的程度存在不確定性，我們必須為不同的情況做好準備。 無論美國大選結果如何，很明顯，我們未來將不得不越來越依賴我們自己的力量。
我知道這有多複雜在歐洲各地經濟和社會形勢困難之際，增加國防開支。 幾十年來，我們更喜歡黃油而不是大炮，這是可以理解的。 但如果我們無法保衛自己，我們不僅會失去黃油，還會失去自由和民主。
為了最大限度地提高我們努力的有效性，我們需要果斷地加強協調，以避免不必要的重複，填補我們防禦能力的空白並提高互操作性。 我們已經說了很久了，現在我們終於要做到了。
這還需要一個更強大、更有彈性的歐洲國防工業。 這就是為什麽，根據歐洲理事會的任務，我作為負責共同安全和防務政策的高級代表和歐洲防務局局長，將與委員會一起在未來幾天提出一項新的歐洲防務工業戰略，以促進 我們國防工業的工業和技術能力。
我們與負責我們工業生態係統（包括國防工業）的布雷頓專員進行了良好的合作。 對於未來，盡管與其他工業和技術部門存在很強的相互依賴性，但單獨為該工業部門設立專員可能是一種選擇。
然而，根據條約，國防政策本身仍然是成員國的專有權限，隻有歐盟成員國擁有軍隊和國防能力。 我們在歐盟層麵的責任，作為負責共同安全和防務政策的高級代表的責任，不是建立“一支歐洲軍隊”，而是以協調的方式動員我們各國的軍隊，以便更有效地應對共同的挑戰。
我們需要讓它們更好地協同工作，更具互操作性，避免重複，解決不足，並能夠在需要時啟動共同操作。 在我的任期內，我啟動了七次此類歐盟任務，上周一是最後一次，以維護紅海的航行自由。
加強我們的國防能力和國防工業的工作才剛剛開始。 我們必須加速並集中精力共同努力，以確保歐盟及其成員國擁有我們成為地緣政治參與者的雄心所需的手段。
慕尼黑安全會議 Pictoquote © EUROPEAN UNION, 2024
'Western dominance has ended', EU foreign-policy chief admits, warning of 'West against the Rest' geopolitics
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/02/26/western-dominance-ended-eu-josep-borrell/
By Ben Norton Feb 25, 2024
The European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, admitted that the “era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended”. He warned that the EU must not divide the world into “the West against the Rest”, as “many in the ‘Global South’ accuse us of ‘double standards’”.
The 2023 summit of G7 leaders in Hiroshima, Japan
Europe's top diplomat has acknowledged that the “era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended”.
Josep Borrell, the European Union's high representative for foreign affairs, wrote this in a blog post on the official website of the EU's diplomatic service on February 25.
“If the current global geopolitical tensions continue to evolve in the direction of ‘the West against the Rest’, Europe’s future risks to be bleak”, he warned.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza, along with the anti-colonial uprisings in Africa’s Sahel region, have “significantly increased this risk” of Europe becoming geopolitically irrelevant, Borrell said, lamenting that “Russia has managed to take advantage of the situation”.
The European foreign-policy chief revealed that “improving our relations with the ‘Global South'” is one of ” the four main tasks on EU’s geopolitical agenda”.
“Many in the ‘Global South’ accuse us of ‘double standards'”, he confessed.
Borrell is known for sporadically making frank comments, admitting inconvenient truths that most European diplomats leave unsaid.
In 2022, the EU foreign-policy chief confessed, “Our prosperity was based on China and Russia – energy and market”, with “cheap energy coming from Russia” and “access to the big China market” as the cornerstone of the European economy.
However, Borrell’s insistence that Europe must not divide the world into the “West against the Rest” was contradicted by his insistence in the same February 2024 article that the EU must expand its “cooperation with key partners, and in particular the US”.
The top European diplomat wrote that “recent months have reminded us how important NATO remains to our collective defence”, calling to strengthen the US-led military bloc.
In 2023, the influential think tank the European Council on Foreign Relations published a white paper titled “The art of vassalisation”. It warned of “Europe becoming an American vassal”, noting how the war in Ukraine had “revealed Europeans’ profound dependence on the US”.
The EU’s foreign-policy chief does recognize that it would be an error to pit “the West against the Rest”, yet he is simultaneously calling for deepening the trans-Atlantic alliance between the US and Europe, which only exacerbates that geopolitical division.
The West vs. the rest at the UN
On the global stage, Europe frequently joins the United States in violating the will of the international community.
At the United Nations, the US and Europe often vote together, while the vast majority of member states, which are located in the Global South, vote against them.
Source: Alastair Iain Johnston, “China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing’s International Relations”, International Security (2019)
The US only voted with the majority of the world at the UN General Assembly 32.7% of the time from 1983 to 2012.
In 1988, just 15.4% of overall UNGA votes coincided with the US vote.
Europe is the only region of the world that consistently votes with the US.
In November 2023, the West voted against the vast majority of the world in UN General Assembly resolutions concerning democracy, human rights, and cultural diversity, mercenaries and unilateral coercive measures (sanctions).
In April 2023, the West once again voted as a bloc against the other countries on the UN Human Rights Council, defending unilateral sanctions, which violate international law.
In December 2022, the West voted against the rest of the planet in UN General Assembly votes calling for a new international economic order.
Munich Security Conference: the four tasks on the EU's geopolitical agenda
HR/VP Blog – Last week, at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), I presented the four main tasks on EU’s geopolitical agenda: supporting Ukraine more and quicker; putting an end to the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and implementing the two-state solution; improving our relations with the “Global South” and strengthening our defence and security. I also had a large number of bilateral meetings with our partners from all over the world.
© EUROPEAN UNION, 2024
This year, the atmosphere in Munich was one of particular gravity. With two wars on its doorstep, and many other powder kegs all over the world, everyone was finally aware that Europe is in danger, as I said two years ago when presenting the Strategic Compass.
On the first day of the conference, we learned about the suspect death of Alexei Navalny in a penal colony in Siberia, who has been slowly murdered there by President Putin. I met his wife and invited her to attend the Foreign Affairs Council last Monday, where we paid tribute to Alexei Navalny and she updated us on the political situation in Russia.
During my stay in Munich, I exchanged also on the most pressing global and bilateral issues with Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, Gustavo Petro, President of Columbia, Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China, Subrahmanyam Shankar, Foreign Minister of India, Hakan Fidam, Foreign Minister of Türkyie, and Chris Van Hollen, US Senator. With Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti, I discussed, in separate meetings, how to deescalate the tensions, without success unfortunately.
In different meetings, I discussed the situation in the Middle East with Najib Mikati, Prime Minister of Lebanon, Prince Faisal, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Sameh Shoukry, Foreign Minister of Egypt, Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the GCC and Espen Eide, Foreign Minister of Norway. We focused on our efforts to put an end to the fighting in Gaza, free the hostages, alleviate the humanitarian catastrophe in the strip, avoid the conflict to spread in the region and go forward to implement effectively the two state solution.
I also presented my views in a plenary session on the “EU’s next geopolitical agenda”. While our priorities are constantly reshaped by events, four items currently dominate our agenda: the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the war that has flared up again in Gaza, both of which are directly putting the security of the EU at risk. Two more structural issues are also requiring urgent action: improving our relations with the so-called Global South and strengthening our defence and security capabilities.
Supporting Ukraine more and quicker
Regarding Ukraine, two long years have passed since Russia started waging its war of aggression against Ukraine, acting as an imperialist and colonialist power. Ukraine is facing a long and high-intensity war, where casualties are rising on both sides. We must not allow Russia to be rewarded for its aggression. If Putin prevails, this would send a very dangerous signal globally that powerful countries can change borders unilaterally.
This war put us in a situation that requires a completely different approach from that of ordinary peace times. We have to shift towards much greater agility, commitment, and focus. If we do not act swiftly enough in coming months, Ukraine risks losing ground. We have to support Ukraine more, and we have to do it quicker, in particular regarding artillery ammunition. They are needed now, not in a few months. The issue is not currently a real lack of ammunition production capacity any longer; rather, it is a shortfall in funding and orders.
We are witnessing a new kind of war: one that evokes both the trenches of the First World War and the robots of Star Wars. Technology, in particular drones and artificial intelligence are shaping the outcome of this war. We need to find ways to provide Ukraine with the latest technological developments. During my recent visit to Ukraine, I was very impressed by the drone factories I visited. We also have to draw the consequences of this new way of warfare for our self and invest more in defence innovation.
We have also to provide Ukraine with long-term security commitments. EU member states are already signing corresponding bilateral agreements and we will do the same at EU level. We continue working to create a new dedicated Ukraine Assistance Fund within the European Peace Facility in order to guarantee long term military support to the country. However, the most important security commitment the EU can give to Ukraine is EU membership. Last December the European Council opened the way to this and we have to remain fully committed to this process.
Putting an end to the fighting in Gaza and implementing the two-state solution
In the Middle East, the stakes are also very high for EU’s security. If we fail to help end the man made humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and finally implement the two-state solution, this conflict risks setting the whole region ablaze. The repercussions for Europe would be profound in many respects: migration, terrorism, internal tensions, energy crisis, interrupted sea routes as we are already witnessing in the Red Sea…
In light of the ongoing major humanitarian catastrophe, putting an end to the fighting in Gaza is obviously the most urgent task. However, the situation in East Jerusalem and the West Bank is also very worrying. The level of violence against Palestinians, already very high before, has escalated dramatically since the 7 October. The West Bank is boiling and if UNRWA has to stop supporting the Palestinian people, we may be approaching a major explosion. In view of implementing the two-state solution, the West Bank and East Jerusalem are in reality the main obstacles. In search for a political solution for the day after we must not look exclusively at Gaza, but to all occupied Palestinian territories.
Can the EU play a role in bringing peace to the region and finally implement the two-state solution that we have been advocating for more than 30 years? I am convinced we can. It is not only possible, it is also our duty and in our interest. We have already engaged with many important regional actors, notably through the Peace Day initiative launched before the 7 October. However, to be successful, we need to be more united, as we have been in support of Ukraine. On the Middle East, we have seen a greater diversity of approaches, and many member states seem to prefer pursuing their own strategies.
Arab countries are preparing a new peace initiative, and we have recently had a lot of discussion with our Arab partners, including at the Foreign Affairs Council in January and at the MSC. We are awaiting their formal proposal and after that, we should join efforts to effectively implement the two-state solution. Without a clear prospect for the Palestinians of an end of the occupation and the creation of their own state, there will be no peace in the Middle East and no real security for Israel. In the long term, security cannot be ensured only by military means.
Improving our links with the “Global South”
The third strategic issue currently on our agenda is about our relations with the so-called “Global South” countries. I know that the term "Global South" encompasses very different realities, but it nevertheless raises a real issue. If the current global geopolitical tensions continue to evolve in the direction of "the West against the Rest", Europe’s future risks to be bleak. The era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended. While this has been theoretically understood, we have not always drawn all practical conclusions from this new reality.
The combination of the war of aggression against Ukraine and the war in Gaza has significantly increased this risk, as we have recently seen in the Sahel and elsewhere in Africa. Many in the “Global South” accuse us of “double standards”. Russia has managed to take advantage of the situation although its war of aggression against Ukraine is typically an imperialist and colonialist one. We need to push back on this narrative but also to address this issue not only with words: in the coming months, we must make a massive effort to win back the trust of our partners.
Reinforcing our defence capacities and our defence industry
Last but not least, we need to massively reinforce our capacities in security and defence. We must obviously be prepared in particular for a prolonged period of tensions with Russia, which may be tempted to escalate its political and military provocations against NATO countries in the coming months. It has already been at the core of my work during the last four years: as High Representative, I am not only in charge of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy but also of the Common Security and Defence Policy and since 2019 I have devoted a lot of effort to this second dimension.
Before the Russian aggression against Ukraine, we launched the Strategic Compass - the new EU security and defence strategy - because I was convinced that “Europe was in danger”. At that time, nobody really noticed or realised the gravity of the situation. Now, European defence is back at the centre of the public debate, and not only at the MSC. Rightly so.
I have repeatedly explained in recent years that Europe has gone though a long period of silent disarmament, gradually losing military capacity while our defence industry has been shrinking dangerously. We have now started to reverse this trend. For the last ten years our defence budgets have been growing again. And since the start of the Russian war of aggression, we have begun to reboot our defence industry: our capacity to produce artillery ammunitions has grown by 40 %. It is still a long way to go but we are moving in the right direction.
We must sustain these efforts in cooperation with key partners, and in particular the US. The recent months have reminded us how important NATO remains to our collective defence, but also the need to strengthen its European pillar as our American friends have been asking for. There are uncertainties regarding the future level of US engagement in the European security and we must be prepared for different scenarios. Regardless of the outcome of the American elections, it is clear that we will have to rely more and more on our own forces in the future.
I know how complicated it is to spend more on defence at a time when the economic and social situation is difficult everywhere in Europe. For decades, we have, understandably, preferred butter to cannons. But it we are not able to defend ourselves, we risk losing not only our butter but also freedom and democracy.
To maximise the effectiveness of our efforts, we need to decisively step up our coordination to avoid unnecessary duplication, fill the gaps in our defence capacities and increase interoperability. We have said it for a long time, now we must finally do it.
This requires also a stronger and more resilient European defence industry. This is why, as tasked by the European Council, I, as High Representative responsible for our Common Security and Defence Policy and Head of the European Defence Agency, together with the Commission, will present in coming days a new European Defence Industrial Strategy to boost the industrial and technological capacity of our defence industry.
We had an excellent cooperation with Commissioner Breton, in charge of our industrial ecosystem, which includes the defence industry. For the future, a Commissioner for this industrial sector alone could be an option, although strong interdependencies exist with other industrial and technological sectors.
According to the Treaties, defence policy itself remains however an exclusive competence of the Member States and only EU member states have armies and defence capabilities. Our responsibility at EU level, my responsibility as High Representative in charge of the Common Security and Defence Policy, is not to build ‘one European army’, but to mobilize our national armies in a coordinated way in order to face common challenges more effectively.
We need to make them work together better, to be more interoperable, to avoid duplications, address shortfalls, and to be able to launch common operations when needed. During my mandate, I launched seven such EU missions with last Monday the last one in order to safeguard freedom of navigation in in the Red Sea.
The work has only started to strengthen our defence capacities and our defence industry. We must accelerate and focus on working together to make sure the EU and its member states have the means required by our ambition to be a geopolitical player.
