頂尖科學家拒絕上帝

頂尖科學家仍然拒絕上帝

愛德華·拉爾森和拉裏·威瑟姆，1998 年 7 月 23 日
《自然》第 394 卷，第 313 頁（1998）引用本文

自本世紀初以來，美國科學家的宗教信仰問題就一直存在爭議。 我們最新的調查發現，在頂級自然科學家中，人們的懷疑程度比以往任何時候都更大——幾乎是全部。

關於這一主題的研究始於美國著名心理學家詹姆斯·H·盧巴（James H. Leuba）和他在1914年進行的具有裏程碑意義的調查。他發現，在隨機挑選的1000名美國科學家中，有58%的人對上帝的存在表示不相信或懷疑，而這一數字上升到接近70%。 他的樣本中 400 名“更偉大”的科學家中的 %1。 20 年後，Leuba 以略有不同的形式重複了他的調查，發現這些百分比分別增加到 67 和 852。

1996 年，我們重複了 Leuba 1914 年的調查，並在 Nature3 上報告了我們的結果。 我們發現美國科學家總體上與 1914 年相比變化不大，60.7% 的人表示不相信或懷疑。 今年，我們密切模仿了 Leuba 1914 年調查的第二階段，以衡量“更偉大”科學家的信念，結果發現信念率比以往任何時候都要低——隻有 7% 的受訪者相信。

盧巴將“偉大”科學家的更高程度的懷疑和懷疑歸因於他們的“卓越的知識、理解和經驗”2。 同樣，牛津大學科學家彼得·阿特金斯 (Peter Atkins) 對我們 1996 年的調查評論道：“你顯然可以成為一名科學家，同時擁有宗教信仰。 但我不認為你能成為一名真正的科學家，因為它們是非常陌生的知識類別。”4這樣的評論導致我們重複 Leuba 研究的第二階段，以進行最新的比較 “偉大”和“小”科學家的宗教信仰。

我們選擇的“更偉大”科學家團隊是美國國家科學院 (NAS) 的成員。 我們的調查發現，NAS自然科學家幾乎普遍拒絕超驗。 NAS 生物科學家中不相信上帝和永生的比例分別為 65.2% 和 69.0%，NAS 物理科學家中則分別為 79.0% 和 76.3%。 其餘的大多數人對這兩個問題都是不可知論者，很少有人相信。 我們發現 NAS 數學家的信仰比例最高（14.3% 相信上帝，15.0% 相信不朽）。 生物科學家的信仰率最低（5.5%相信上帝，7.1%相信不朽），物理學家和天文學家的信仰率稍高（7.5%相信上帝，7.5%相信不朽）。 1914 年、1933 年和 1998 年調查的總體比較數據見表 1。

表1“更偉大”科學家的調查答案比較
全尺寸桌子
重複 Leuba 的方法帶來了挑戰。 在一般調查中，他對標準參考書《美國科學家》（AMS）中列出的科學家進行了隨機調查。 我們使用的是當前版本。 在 Leuba 的時代，AMS 編輯在他們的條目中指定了“偉大的科學家”，而 Leuba 用這些來識別他的“更偉大的”科學家1,2。 AMS 不再進行這些任命，因此我們選擇 NAS 成員作為我們的“更偉大”科學家，這一地位曾經確保在早期 AMS 中被指定為“偉大的科學家”。 我們的方法肯定比 Leuba 的方法產生了更精英的樣本，這（如果 Leuba 和阿特金斯引用的評論是正確的）可以解釋我們的受訪者中信念水平極低的原因。

在 1914 年的調查中，Leuba 將他的簡短調查問卷郵寄給了 400 名 AMS“偉大科學家”的隨機樣本。 它詢問了受訪者對“與人類進行智力和情感交流的上帝”和“個人不朽”的信仰。 對於每個問題，受訪者都可以選擇肯定相信、不相信或不可知論1。 我們的調查包含完全相同的問題，並且還要求匿名回答。

Leuba 將 1914 年的調查發送給了 400 名“生物和物理科學家”，後者包括數學家以及物理學家和天文學家1。 由於 NAS 會員規模相對較小，我們向這些核心學科的所有 517 名 NAS 會員發送了調查。 Leuba 在 1914 年獲得的回報率約為 70%，1933 年超過 75%，而我們的回報率在 1996 年的調查中約為 60%，來自 NAS 會員的回報率略高於 50%1,2。

當我們整理我們的發現時，國家科學院發行了一本小冊子，鼓勵在公立學校教授進化論，這是科學界和美國一些保守基督徒之間持續摩擦的根源。 這本小冊子向讀者保證，“上帝是否存在是一個科學中立的問題”5。 NAS院長布魯斯·艾伯茨說：“這個學院有很多非常傑出的成員，他們都是非常虔誠的人，相信進化論，其中很多人是生物學家。” 我們的調查表明情況並非如此。

Leading scientists still reject God

https://www.nature.com/articles/28478#:~:text=Our%20survey%20found%20near%20universal,both%20issues%2C%20with%20few%20believers.?

Edward J. Larson & Larry Witham ， 23 July 1998
Nature volume 394, page313 (1998)Cite this article

The question of religious belief among US scientists has been debated since early in the century. Our latest survey finds that, among the top natural scientists, disbelief is greater than ever — almost total.

Research on this topic began with the eminent US psychologist James H. Leuba and his landmark survey of 1914. He found that 58% of 1,000 randomly selected US scientists expressed disbelief or doubt in the existence of God, and that this figure rose to near 70% among the 400 “greater” scientists within his sample1. Leuba repeated his survey in somewhat different form 20 years later, and found that these percentages had increased to 67 and 85, respectively2.

In 1996, we repeated Leuba's 1914 survey and reported our results in Nature3. We found little change from 1914 for American scientists generally, with 60.7% expressing disbelief or doubt. This year, we closely imitated the second phase of Leuba's 1914 survey to gauge belief among “greater” scientists, and find the rate of belief lower than ever — a mere 7% of respondents.

Leuba attributed the higher level of disbelief and doubt among “greater” scientists to their “superior knowledge, understanding, and experience”2. Similarly, Oxford University scientist Peter Atkins commented on our 1996 survey, “You clearly can be a scientist and have religious beliefs. But I don't think you can be a real scientist in the deepest sense of the word because they are such alien categories of knowledge.”4 Such comments led us to repeat the second phase of Leuba's study for an up-to-date comparison of the religious beliefs of “greater” and “lesser” scientists.

Our chosen group of “greater” scientists were members of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS). Our survey found near universal rejection of the transcendent by NAS natural scientists. Disbelief in God and immortality among NAS biological scientists was 65.2% and 69.0%, respectively, and among NAS physical scientists it was 79.0% and 76.3%. Most of the rest were agnostics on both issues, with few believers. We found the highest percentage of belief among NAS mathematicians (14.3% in God, 15.0% in immortality). Biological scientists had the lowest rate of belief (5.5% in God, 7.1% in immortality), with physicists and astronomers slightly higher (7.5% in God, 7.5% in immortality). Overall comparison figures for the 1914, 1933 and 1998 surveys appear in Table 1.

Table 1 Comparison of survey answers among “greater” scientists
 

Repeating Leuba's methods presented challenges. For his general surveys, he randomly polled scientists listed in the standard reference work, American Men of Science (AMS). We used the current edition. In Leuba's day, AMS editors designated the “great scientists” among their entries, and Leuba used these to identify his “greater” scientists1,2. The AMS no longer makes these designations, so we chose as our “greater” scientists members of the NAS, a status that once assured designation as “great scientists” in the early AMS. Our method surely generated a more elite sample than Leuba's method, which (if the quoted comments by Leuba and Atkins are correct) may explain the extremely low level of belief among our respondents.

For the 1914 survey, Leuba mailed his brief questionnaire to a random sample of 400 AMS “great scientists”. It asked about the respondent's belief in “a God in intellectual and affective communication with humankind” and in “personal immortality”. Respondents had the options of affirming belief, disbelief or agnosticism on each question1. Our survey contained precisely the same questions and also asked for anonymous responses.

Leuba sent the 1914 survey to 400 “biological and physical scientists”, with the latter group including mathematicians as well as physicists and astronomers1. Because of the relatively small size of NAS membership, we sent our survey to all 517 NAS members in those core disciplines. Leuba obtained a return rate of about 70% in 1914 and more than 75% in 1933 whereas our returns stood at about 60% for the 1996 survey and slightly over 50% from NAS members1,2.

As we compiled our findings, the NAS issued a booklet encouraging the teaching of evolution in public schools, an ongoing source of friction between the scientific community and some conservative Christians in the United States. The booklet assures readers, “Whether God exists or not is a question about which science is neutral”5. NAS president Bruce Alberts said: “There are many very outstanding members of this academy who are very religious people, people who believe in evolution, many of them biologists.” Our survey suggests otherwise.

References

1. Leuba, J. H. The Belief in God and Immortality: A Psychological, Anthropological and Statistical Study (Sherman, French & Co., Boston, 1916).

2. Leuba, J. H. Harper's Magazine 169, 291–300 (1934).

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3. Larson, E. J. & Witham, L. Nature 386, 435–436 (1997).

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4. Highfield, R. The Daily Telegraph 3 April, p. 4 (1997).

5. National Academy of Sciences Teaching About Evolution and the Nature of Science (Natl Acad. Press, Washington DC, 1998).

Authors and Affiliations

1. Department of History, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602-6012, Georgia, USA

   Edward J. Larson

2. 3816 Lansdale Court, Burtonsville, 20866, Maryland, USA

   Larry Witham