風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
為何美國說脫鉤，但官員和企業家卻頻訪華？
年初以來，中國不僅迎來了一個接一個的外國元首，歐美企業界的大佬們更是接踵而至，成為中國對外交往的一道風景線。到訪中國的均是美國頂級的企業大佬，他們利用訪問中國的機會，表達對中國發展前景的信心，向美國政府發出了反對與中國脫鉤的一致聲音。白宮一心想切斷中國和西方的經濟、貿易和科技聯係，將中國排除出與西方的分工之外，但隨著時間的推移，其實現的難度越來越大。在美版知乎Quora上，美國網友提問道：為什麽美國大內宣說著對華脫鉤，實際上從官員到企業家卻頻頻訪華求合作？這引起各國網友的圍觀和熱議。
英國網友舒格•博世的回答
The propaganda and practical interests of the United States often run counter to each other.
美國方麵的宣傳和現實利益往往背道而馳。
The United States has imported nearly $560 billion in goods from China. Guess what the retail price of these goods is in the United States?
美國從中國進口了近5600億美元的商品，猜猜這些商品在美國國內的零售價是多少?
$1.567 trillion or close to $1.6 trillion, which means that US importers spend $27.5 to purchase a pair of jeans from China, with a retail price of $69.99; A laptop imported from China has an import price of $700 and a retail price of $1199; A polished ebony table factory produces 6 chairs imported from China, priced at $121 and retail at $249.
1.567萬億美元或接近1.6萬億美元，這意味著，美國進口商花27.5美元從中國購買一條牛仔褲，零售價為69.99美元；一台從中國進口的筆記本電腦進口價700美元，零售價為1199美元；一個拋光烏木桌工廠製造，從中國進口的6把椅子，售價121美元，零售價249美元。
因此，從中國進口的5640億美元給美國進口商帶來了約1.6萬億美元的收入，1.6萬億美元，約占美國GDP的6.5%。
Now let's turn around and think: The United States exports $165 billion to China, guess what their retail value is?
現在我們反過來想：美國向中國出口1650億美元，猜猜它們的零售價值有多少?
Only $255 billion to $260 billion
隻有2550億到2600億美元
Why is this happening?
為什麽會這樣?
From the perspective of market pricing, brand pricing, and technology pricing, China exports low-cost and continuously value-added products.
從市場定價、品牌定價和技術定價來看，中國出口的是低成本、持續增值的產品。
A $37 calf leather wallet with the Gucci brand printed on it, with a retail price of $360;
一個價值37美元的小牛皮錢包，上麵印著古馳品牌，零售價為360美元；
A T-shirt with Tommy Hilfiger brand printed on it for $3.10 is now selling for $43.99.
一件3.10美元的印有Tommy Hilfiger品牌的T恤，現在賣到43.99美元。
However, the products exported by the United States have little potential for value enhancement, such as soybeans, wheat, corn, semiconductors, and advanced machinery.
然而，美國出口的產品幾乎沒有價值提升潛力，大豆、小麥、玉米、半導體、先進機械等。
The value improvement brought by market pricing, brand pricing, or technology pricing is minimal. Even a Boeing aircraft, which earns up to several million dollars in commission to Chinese importers, has earned nearly 100 million dollars for the US economy.
市場定價、品牌定價或技術定價所帶來的價值提升微乎其微，即使是一架波音飛機，給中國進口商最多賺幾百萬美元的傭金，卻為美國經濟賺了近1億美元。
Do you understand?
明白了吧?
No country in the world can export goods worth $564 billion to the United States.
世界上沒有哪個國家能向美國出口價值5640億美元的商品。
It is estimated that the manufacturing potential of India, Vietnam, and Mexico in the next decade is three times that of today, and by 2030, they can collectively export goods worth $338 billion.
據估計，印度、越南和墨西哥的未來十年的製造業潛力是目前的三倍，到2030年，它們加起來可以出口價值3380億美元的商品。
Growing to $226 billion in exports in the 27th year, there are also approximately $700 billion in final retail goods.
增長到27年2260億美元的出口額，但也有大約7000億美元的最終零售商品。
If the United States completely decouples from China, even if industrial output in India, Vietnam, and Mexico doubles by 2030, American businesses and entities will significantly decline.
如果美國與中國完全脫鉤，即使到2030年印度、越南和墨西哥的工業產出增加兩倍，美國企業和實體也將大大下降。
The US economy and its participants will be deprived of $700 billion in value, and by 2030, considering inflation, this number may reach around $1 trillion.
美國經濟及其參與者將被剝奪7000億美元的價值，到2030年，考慮到通貨膨脹，這一數字可能會達到1萬億美元左右。
This means a lot of work and a lot of money is gone.
這意味著很多工作，很多錢都沒了。
Meanwhile, what about China?
與此同時中國呢?
During the decoupling process, China may lose approximately $564 billion in exports
在脫鉤過程中，中國可能損失約5640億美元的出口
Therefore, even in the worst-case scenario where the United States completely decouples from China and India, Mexico and Vietnam's industrial output has tripled today, China will lose $580 billion, while the United States will lose $1 trillion
因此，即使在最壞的情況下，美國完全與中國和印度脫鉤，墨西哥和越南今天的工業產出增加了兩倍，中國將損失5800億美元，而美國將損失1萬億美元
Based on the normal industrial output of these three countries, the United States will lose $2.4 trillion, almost 4.5 times the economic loss of China.
按這三個國家的正常工業產出計算，美國將損失2.4萬億美元，幾乎是中國經濟損失的4.5倍。
The same goes for the European Union.The same goes for ASEAN. The same goes for India
歐盟也一樣，東盟也是如此，甚至印度也一樣。
That's why Raymond visited China, and that's why 27 Chinese entities have been removed from the blacklist recently.
這就是雷蒙多訪問中國的原因，這就是為什麽最近會有27家中國實體被從黑名單中刪除。
So far, Western media has been fabricating lies and promoting, while China does not care.
到目前為止，西方媒體一直在編造謊言和宣傳，而中國並不在意。
Now, if China decides to retaliate by significantly reducing key exports by $100 billion, and the United States cannot even obtain exports exceeding $30 billion from other countries.
現在，如果中國決定通過大幅削減1000億美元的關鍵出口來進行報複，而美國甚至無法從其他國家獲得超過300億美元的出口。
China lost $100 billion, while the US economy lost about $210 billion.
中國損失1000億美元，而美國經濟損失約2100億美元。
The US economy is expected to grow by 1.8% this year, reaching $470 billion, of which this figure accounts for 44%.
美國經濟預計今年將增長1.8%，達到4700億美元，而這一數字占其中的44%。
雷蒙多
US Commerce Secretary Raymond said:
美國商務部長雷蒙多說：
Please maintain trade relations with China as usual and do not care about what we say in the media. The disputed industries between China and the United States are those worth billions of dollars in trade. Please take the overall situation into consideration and let us maintain a trade balance of the remaining 685 to 690 billion dollars.
請中國和往常一樣保持貿易往來，不要在乎我們在媒體上說的話。中美彼此有爭議的是那幾百億美元貿易額的產業，請中國顧全大局，讓我們保持其餘6850 - 6900億美元的貿易平衡。
That's why American business people frequently visit China and have recently lifted some of the sanctions, decoupling from China and causing much greater losses for everyone.
這就是為什麽美國商業和企業界人士頻繁拜訪中國，並且在最近解除部分製裁措施的原因，與中國脫鉤，每個人的損失都要大得多。
德國學者雷•科莫的回答
Simply put, political influence in the First World is purchased with cash.
很簡單，在第一世界的政治影響力是用現金購買的。
For example, the last US presidential election cost $15 billion, and this time it may exceed $20 billion to address the upcoming crisis.
例如，美國上次總統選舉花費了150億美元，這次為了解決即將到來的危機可能會超過200億美元。
Where does the money come from?
錢從哪裏來?
As another presidential election year approaches, politicians must begin to appease donors who are dissatisfied with destructive actions that harm their profits in China, whether in terms of direct trade or domestic business.
在又一個總統選舉年來臨之際，政界人士必須開始安撫那些因破壞性舉動而感到不滿的捐贈者，這些舉動損害了他們在中國的利潤，無論是在直接貿易方麵，還是在國內大陸業務方麵。
This is called lobbying, and petitions (some say demand) are aimed at preventing or reversing the deterioration of the business environment, which has been suppressed by the unprecedented interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, triggering global optimism and a downturn in spending amidst the wave of inflation.
這就是所謂的遊說，請願(有人說是需求)是為了阻止或扭轉商業環境的惡化，這種惡化已經被美聯儲史無前例的加息所抑製，在通脹浪潮中引發了全球樂觀情緒和支出的低迷。
Let's clarify the situation this year. The government's current fiscal deficit exceeds 30% to support an economy expected to grow by 1% this year. The debt of US treasury bond+municipal bonds has exceeded 37% of GDP, or 150% of GDP. The inflation rate remains at 5%, while consumer spending is shrinking amidst record breaking credit card debt.
讓我們把今年的情況講清楚。政府目前的財政赤字超過30%，以支撐今年預計增長1%的經濟。美國國債+市政債券的債務已經超過了GDP的37%，或者說超過了GDP的150%。通貨膨脹率仍維持在5%的水平，而消費者支出在創紀錄的信用卡債務中萎縮。
I would like to say that now too many economies are in recession, and the comprehensive outbreak of scientific and technological war, tariffs and sanctions are competing with China's influence, exacerbating the economic difficulties caused by the excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus of the COVID-19 epidemic.
我想說，現在有太多的經濟體陷入衰退，全麵爆發的科技戰、關稅和製裁與中國的影響力相抗衡，加劇了因新冠疫情過度貨幣和財政刺激帶來的經濟困境。
The United States kindly requests China to take a break while playing the game of selecting global leaders across the Pacific.
美國貌似善意地請求中國，讓我們在太平洋彼岸玩挑選全球領導者的遊戲時，暫時休息一下。
China stated that, of course, we welcome a pause. Speaking is always better than doing, but remember that you don't have all the cards, because most of the time we are parrying without counterattacking.
中國表示，當然，我們歡迎暫停。說話總比動手好，但記住你不是掌握了所有的牌，因為我們大多數時候都是招架而沒有反擊。
At the same time, Chinese sources emphasize that signal reconnaissance flights along the coast of China have been suspended, and Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching de was unable to receive even a meeting with a well-known political figure during his recent "visit" to the United States. At critical moments, Americans, whether Republican or Republican, can act according to the unspoken script of China and the United States.
與此同時，中國消息人士強調，中國沿海的信號偵察航班已經暫停，而台灣地區民進黨候選人賴清德最近在美國“竄訪”期間，未能獲得哪怕一位知名政治人物的會見。在緊要關頭，美國人無論是共和黨人還是共和黨人都能按照中美心照不宣的劇本行事。
So, while summer is still here, enjoy it to the fullest. It is expected that there will be drastic fluctuations in speech next year, which will become unpredictable and terrifying fluctuations within the United States. But pay special attention to the Chinese people. I think 2024 will be the year when rabbits are pulled out of their magic hats. China will bring some surprises or even scares to the United States, such as news about chips or bombers.
所以，趁著夏天還在，盡情享受吧。預計明年的言論將出現劇烈波動，這將成為美國國內不可預測的、令人毛骨悚然的波動。但要特別注意中國人，我認為2024年將是兔子從魔法帽中被拉出來的一年，中國將給美國帶來一些驚喜甚至是驚嚇，比如芯片或者轟炸機方麵的消息。
美國網友皮特•霍金斯的回答
No matter where you read 'China is collapsing', it's nonsense. I suggest you obtain news from more reputable channels, even Playboy is more accurate than this.
無論你在哪裏讀到“中國正在崩潰”，那都是胡說八道，我建議你從更有信譽的渠道獲取新聞，就連《花花公子》也比這個更準確。
Recently, US officials have visited China several times in a row: first Secretary of State Antony Antony Blinken, then Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen.
最近，美國官員連續多次訪問中國:首先是國務卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)，然後是財政部長耶倫(Janet Yellen)。
In addition, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has stated that she will use her four day visit to China this week to ensure the easing of tensions while maintaining a firm stance in the confrontation over technology restrictions and Chinese trade practices.
此外，美國商務部長吉娜•雷蒙多(Gina Raimondo)表示，她將利用本周對中國為期四天的訪問，確保緩和緊張關係，同時在圍繞技術限製和中國貿易做法的對抗中保持堅定立場。
However, this does not mean that "every leader" is visiting China.
不過，這並不能說明“每一位領導人”都在訪華。
Raymond, who arrived in Beijing on Sunday, stated that when discussing economic and commercial relations with her Chinese counterparts, she will seek to "protect what we must protect and promote what we can promote".
周日抵達北京的雷蒙多表示，在與中國同行討論經濟和商業關係時，她將尋求“保護我們必須保護的東西，促進我們所能促進的東西”。
The list of discussions includes US export controls that China opposes to restrict the transfer of advanced semiconductors, as well as Chinese regulations and other methods that US officials have described as "unfair" use by Beijing against US companies in recent months.
討論的清單包括中國反對的限製先進半導體轉讓的美國出口管製，以及美國官員稱中國近幾個月來對美國公司“不公平”使用的法規和其他方法。
Raymond will convey similar information to other government officials who have recently visited Beijing, as China describes technological restrictions as part of efforts to suppress China's rise.
雷蒙多將傳遞與最近訪問北京的其他政府官員類似的信息，中國方麵將技術限製描述為壓製中國崛起的努力的一部分。
Raymond stated that she will explain that these technological controls are aimed at targeting a small number of projects to protect the so-called national security of the United States.
雷蒙多表示，她將解釋說，這些技術控製旨在針對一小部分項目，以保護美國的所謂國家安全。
She said that the United States never seeks to break away from the Chinese economy, but rather hopes to maintain strong economic relations.
她說，美國絕不尋求脫離中國經濟，而是希望保持強勁的經濟關係。
Look, this is reality: the United States and China have a huge, dynamic, and constantly growing economic relationship, which is one of the largest trade relations in the world. Our two countries, in fact, the entire world, need us to manage this relationship responsibly, "Raymond told reporters before departing on Friday.
“看，這就是現實:美國和中國有著龐大、充滿活力、不斷增長的經濟關係，是世界上最大的貿易關係之一，我們兩國，事實上，整個世界，都需要我們負責任地管理這種關係，”雷蒙多周五在啟程前對記者說。
This is the first visit by the US Secretary of Commerce to China in 7 years. During this period, as the two countries compete for global dominance, their relations have deteriorated to historical lows.
這是美國商務部長7年來首次訪問中國。在此期間，隨著兩國爭奪全球主導地位，兩國關係已惡化至曆史低點。
After new tensions emerged this year due to suspected Chinese balloon incidents and the Ukrainian war, the two governments have been cautiously taking action to restore almost interrupted high-level communication.
在今年因疑似中國氣球事件和烏克蘭戰爭而出現新的緊張局勢之後，兩國政府一直在謹慎地采取行動，恢複幾乎中斷的高層溝通。
The recent developments in the Chinese economy have brought new impetus to the Chinese side, hoping to repair the relationship between the two countries and prevent a decline in trade and foreign investment. In the current situation, both countries have a need for communication.
中國經濟最近的動向，給中國方麵帶來了新的動力，希望修補兩國關係，以防止貿易和外國投資下降。在當前形勢下，兩國都有溝通的需求。
