2023 厄爾尼諾幹旱 亞洲稻米價格飆升至兩年高點

受厄爾尼諾幹旱風險影響，亞洲稻米價格飆升至兩年高點

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rice-soars-two-high-asia-051550639.html

納帕特·孔薩瓦德 2023 年 7 月 11 日

（彭博社）——亞洲大米價格飆升至兩年多來的最高水平，因為進口商擔心厄爾尼諾現象的出現會導致種植園幹涸並損害農作物，因此增加了庫存。
泰國大米出口商協會的數據顯示，該地區的基準等級泰國白米 5% 破碎在過去四個月內上漲了約 15%，至每噸 535 美元，為 2021 年 3 月初以來的最高水平。

據世界氣象組織稱，熱帶太平洋七年來首次出現厄爾尼諾現象，有可能給東南亞帶來幹旱。 與此同時，上周連續三天的全球氣溫創紀錄，加劇了人們對氣候變化速度的擔憂。

雖然季風降雨給最大出口國印度部分地區的稻田帶來了緩解，但幹燥天氣正在威脅第二大出口國泰國的作物，該國從 2024 年初開始將麵臨大範圍幹旱。政府已要求農民限製種植 今年隻種植一種作物。

泰國大米出口商協會名譽主席 Chookiat Ophaswongse 表示：“隨著厄爾尼諾現象的出現，我們將在 9 月和 10 月左右開始清楚地看到幹燥天氣的影響。” “話雖如此，隨著厄爾尼諾現象似乎將持續到明年，我們將看到庫存繼續增加。”

印尼采購

進口商已開始以激進的速度建立庫存。 越南預計今年大米出口量將攀升至約十年來的最高水平，向菲律賓、中國和印度尼西亞買家的出口量將激增。

研究公司 The Rice Trader 的創始人兼首席執行官傑裏米·茨溫格 (Jeremy Zwinger) 表示：“來自印度尼西亞和菲律賓的大量購買推動了市場走高。” 盡管如此，“除非政治或天氣改變方向，否則疲軟將在新的一年甚至第四季度再次出現。”

茨溫格說，全球大米供應量仍然異常龐大。 美國農業部的數據顯示，盡管全球年終庫存已連續兩年下降，但仍創下曆史新高。

據中國氣象局稱，未來幾天，中國南方許多地區可能會持續出現熱浪，其中水稻主產省份湖南和江西的部分地區氣溫將高達40攝氏度。 報告稱，高溫將迫使這些地區的一些水稻過早成熟，這是“高風險”。

——在顧荷莉的幫助下。

Rice Soars to Two-Year High in Asia on El Niño Drought Risks

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rice-soars-two-high-asia-051550639.html

Napat Kongsawad  July 11, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- Rice prices in Asia have surged to the highest level in more than two years as importers build up stockpiles on fears that the onset of El Niño will parch plantations and damage crops.

A benchmark grade in the region, Thai white rice 5% broken, has climbed about 15% in the past four months to $535 a ton, the strongest since early March 2021, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, according to the World Meteorological Organization, threatening to bring drought to Southeast Asia. That comes just as three days of record global temperatures last week increased concerns over the pace of climate change.

While monsoon rains have brought relief to rice fields in parts of India, the top exporter, dry weather is threatening crops in No. 2 shipper Thailand, with the country facing widespread drought conditions from early 2024. The government has already asked farmers to restrict their planting to just one crop this year.

“With El Niño, we’ll start to clearly see the effects of dry weather later around September and October,” said Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. “This being said, we’ll see stockpiling continue as El Niño looks set to drag on into next year.”

Indonesian Purchases

Importers have started building inventories at aggressive rates. Vietnam expects rice exports this year to climb to the highest in about a decade, with shipments surging to buyers in the Philippines, China and Indonesia.

“The large buying from Indonesia and Philippines has pushed the market higher,” said Jeremy Zwinger, founder and chief executive officer of research firm The Rice Trader. Still, “weakness will return in the new year or even the fourth quarter, unless politics or weather changes direction.”

Global rice supplies remain exceptionally large, Zwinger said. While the world’s year-ending stockpiles have dropped for two years, they are coming off a record high, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

Heat waves are likely to persist in many areas of southern China in the next few days, with temperatures rising as high as 40C in parts of Hunan and Jiangxi, top rice-growing provinces, according to the China Meteorological Administration. There’s a “high risk” that heat will force the premature ripening of some rice in these areas, it said.

--With assistance from Hallie Gu.