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中國正以令人窒息的速度向超級大國邁進

信源：美國之音｜編輯：2018-01-22

美媒稱，中國已經成為或接近成為一個科技超級大國。不僅技術在進步，而且中國的雄心也在增強。

美國《華盛頓郵報》1月21日在題為《中國邁向科技超級大國的驚人轉型》的文章中稱，

美國國家科學基金會和國家科學委員會剛公布的《科學與工程指標》得出結論：中國已經成為或接近成為一個科技超級大國。科學和技術構成了社會經濟發達和軍事實力強大的知識基礎，中國渴望在這兩個領域成為世界的領先者。

僅僅25年前，中國的經濟規模還很小，高科技產業幾乎不存在。如今，中國正以“令人窒息”的速度向科技超級大國邁進。這份報告指出：中國已經變成世界第二大研發經費支出國，2015年全球研發經費總額近2萬億美元，中國占了21%。隻有美國稍稍高一點，占到了26%。

如果當前的增長速度持續下去，中國將很快變成研發經費最大支出國。同時，中國已經大幅擴大了技術工人隊伍。從2000年到2014年，每年獲得理工科學士學位的大學畢業生人數從大約35.9萬人增長到了165萬人。而同期美國相應的畢業生人數則從大約48.3萬人增長到了74.2萬人。

不僅是中國的技術在進步，而且中國的雄心也在增強。中國的大部分高科技產品曾經包括組裝在其他地方生產的先進組件，而現在中國正進軍“諸如超級計算機和更小型的噴氣式客機”等要求更高的領域。

科技是流動的，在中國取得的進步在其他地方也會被分享，反之亦然。如果中國在關鍵技術——衛星、導彈、網絡戰、人工智能、電磁武器上取得突破，結果可能是戰略平衡發生重大轉變。正如美中經濟與安全審查委員會指出的那樣，中國的技術實力會構成潛在的威脅。

“我們正卷入一場獲取知識的全球競賽”，美國國家科學基金會主席稱，“我們今天可能是創新領導者，但其他國家正快速取得進展。”中國將其經濟馬車拴在先進技術上並不足為奇，重要的是我們是否有意願和能力認清這一點並做點什麽。

China's breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower

By Robert J. Samuelson  January 21, 2018 at 7:26 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/story.html

A Chinese LeEco uMax 85 TV is displayed in San Francisco in October 2016. (Jeff Chiu/AP)

The National Science Foundation and the National Science Board have just released their biennial "Science & Engineering Indicators," a voluminous document describing the state of American technology. There are facts and figures on research and development, innovation and engineers. But the report's main conclusion lies elsewhere: China has become — or is on the verge of becoming — a scientific and technical superpower.

 

We should have expected nothing less. After all, science and technology constitute the knowledge base for economically advanced societies and military powers, and China aspires to become the world leader in both. Still, the actual numbers are breathtaking for the speed with which they've been realized.

 

Remember that a quarter-century ago, China's economy was tiny and its high-tech sector barely existed. Since then, here's what's happened, according to the "Indicators" report:

● China has become the second- ­ largest R&D; spender, accounting for 21 percent of the world total of nearly $2 trillion in 2015. Only the United States, at 26 percent, ranks higher, but if present growth rates continue, China will soon become the biggest spender. From 2000 to 2015, Chinese R&D; outlays grew an average of 18 percent annually, more than four times faster than the U.S. rate of 4 percent.

● There has been an explosion of technical papers by Chinese teams. Although the United States and the European Union each produce more studies on biomedical subjects, China leads in engineering studies. American papers tend to be cited more often than the Chinese papers , suggesting that they involve more fundamental research questions, but China is catching up.

● China has dramatically expanded its technical workforce. From 2000 to 2014, the annual number of science and engineering bachelor's degree graduates went from about 359,000 to 1.65 million. Over the same period, the comparable number of U.S. graduates went from about 483,000 to 742,000.

Not only has Chinese technology expanded. It has also gotten more ambitious. Much of China's high-tech production once consisted of assembling sophisticated components made elsewhere. Now, says the report, it's venturing into demanding areas "such as supercomputers and smaller jetliners."

Of course, there are qualifications. China still lags in patents received. Over the past decade, American firms and inventors account for about half the U.S. patents annually, and most of the rest go to Europeans and Japanese. Recall also that China's population of 1.4 billion is more than four times ours; not surprisingly, it needs more scientists, engineers and technicians.

In a sane world — shorn of nationalistic, economic, racial and ethnic conflicts — none of this would be particularly alarming. Technology is mobile, and gains made in China could be enjoyed elsewhere, and vice versa. But in our contentious world, China's technological prowess is potentially threatening, as the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a congressional watchdog group, has often pointed out.

One danger is military. If China makes a breakthrough in a crucial technology — satellites, missiles, cyberwarfare, artificial intelligence, electromagnetic weapons — the result could be a major shift in the strategic balance and, possibly, war.

Even if this doesn't happen, warns the commission, China's determination to dominate new industries such as artificial intelligence, telecommunications and computers could lead to economic warfare if China maintains subsidies and discriminatory policies to sustain its firms' competitive advantage.

"Industries like computing, robotics, and biotechnology are pillars of U.S. economic competitiveness, sustaining and creating millions of high-paying jobs and high-value-added exports," the commission said in its latest annual report. "The loss of global leadership in these future drivers of global growth" would weaken the American economy. Chinese theft of U.S. industrial trade secrets compounds the danger.

The best response to this technological competition is to reinvigorate America's own technological base. For example: Overhaul immigration to favor high-skilled newcomers, not relatives of previous immigrants; raise defense spending on new technologies to counter China; increase other federal spending on "basic research." (Government provides most of the money for this research, which is the quest for knowledge for its own sake, and amazingly has cut spending in recent years).

"We are involved in a global race for knowledge," said France Córdova, head of the NSF. "We may be the innovation leader today, but other countries are rapidly gaining ground."

It is hardly surprising that China has hitched its economic wagon to advanced technologies. What is less clear and more momentous is our willingness and ability to recognize this and do something about it.