國務卿蒂勒森的亞洲行：中美關係多雲轉晴？

美國務卿蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)的首次亞洲行十分引人注目，蒂勒森不僅要麵對北朝鮮日益惡化的核危機，還要給中美關係定調。在北朝鮮問題上，蒂勒森一度表示以前的種種努力都是失敗的，因此解決北朝鮮核威脅，包括軍事手段在內的一切選擇都不能排除。但蒂勒森不久就淡化這一強硬態度，稱加大經濟製裁仍是首選政策。

在中美關係上，蒂勒森在接受獨家采訪時進行了深入闡述。原文揭露附後，中文大意為，“我認為兩國領導人需要更多對話，加深理解各自的重點和期望。中美關係處於一個重要的曆史時刻。這一關係以尼克鬆訪華以來的四十年間的發展為標誌。其間兩國求同存異，除了朝鮮半島，我們從來沒有軍事衝突。盡管中國經濟增長，在世界占據重要位置，我們總是設法共同相處，避免衝突。不是我們之間沒有分歧，而是我們要麽解決分歧，要麽接受現實。接受現實，向前看，符合兩國各自利益。但我認為由於全球化的進程，世界強國關係可能進入一個拐點。我也認為中美必須重新對話，以便確定未來五十年的關係。我們可以回頭看四十年的成功，但我們有日益增加的未解爭端，我們必須討論這些問題，設法尋求避免衝突的解決之道，進而奠定未來中美關係。中美之間不是沒有分歧，但我們將尋找如何共處下一個五十年。我想中國領導人也會考慮如何共處這一問題。

    EM: Going back to the relationship with China — just one question on that for now — which is, you referred in your confirmation hearing to them at one point as a partner on one issue, as an ally on another. Can you say whether or not China is a potential friend? Is it an adversary? Is it a global competitor, a regional competitor? How do you define it now? And what do you want to define it as in six months?

    RT: Well, again, I think that requires more conversations by the two leaders and a greater understanding from both sides as to their priorities, ours, their aspirations and ours. I do think we’re at somewhat of a historic moment in the U.S.-China relationship. It has been defined for the past 40 years by the opening of China, the Nixon-Kissinger visit. During that time, by and large, the U.S. and China have found a way to exist together in this world, to deal with our conflicts. We’ve never fought a war with each other, other than on the Korean peninsula. That’s the only time we’ve fought a war with each other. And even as China’s country and economy have grown, and now occupies its place in the global economy, we have always managed to exist with one another in a spirit of non-conflict. It doesn’t mean we don’t have differences, but we’ve always found ways to either resolve them or to live with them. Accept that we have differences and move on and still do what’s in the best interest of our people, and China in the best interest of theirs. But I do think because of what is happening globally with people in the world over — globalization itself — that we’re at perhaps at an inflection point in the relationship of global powers in general. And I do think that the Chinese and the U.S. need to have a fresh conversation about what will define the relationship between the United States and China for the next 50 years. We can look back and see how successful we’ve been, 40 years of what I would say has been a very successful relationship with two very powerful nations living with one another without conflict. But now we find that there are issues arising that have gone unresolved. And I think how we are able to talk about those and how we are able to chart our course forward is going to set, potentially, the relationship in a new era of existing together without conflict, in an era of non-conflict. Again, it doesn’t mean we won’t have differences, but we will find how are we going to live with one another for the next 50 years. Because I think there’s a question, perhaps even in the minds of the Chinese: How will the American people, the Chinese people, live with each other in this world for the next half century?

這一獨家采訪是在蒂勒森赴京訪問前進行的。蒂勒森在北京訪問兩天，並有媒體報道他的最新言論。有分析家認為蒂勒森過於溫和，對中美關係的態度甚至有如習近平新型大國關係的翻版。敏感人士講蒂勒森和習近平2014年講話進行對比，發現十分相似（見 鏈接）。講話對比見圖一和圖二。蒂勒森這一超級溫和的姿態和特朗普誓言建立強大海軍抗衡中國的政策形成鮮明對照（見《川普對亞太地區的理念：和平依靠力量》）。

盡管基於一兩次談話來推測外交政策過於草率，但蒂勒森反複強調中美關係中的非衝突性和共贏原則，無疑是個重要信號。如果這一原則當真，美國似乎很難對華過於強硬，在貿易和南海等主要爭議上，北京或可維持很多既得利益。當然蒂勒森也可能口蜜腹劍，但國務卿一般不會信口開河，因此蒂勒森的言論不可輕視。在中美關係非衝突性和共贏原則指導下，隻要中國不讓美國太難堪，中美關係預計不會有大風大浪。

圖一 蒂勒森訪華講話

 
圖二 習近平2014年講話

作者：藿香子
時間：2017年3月20日
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