中歐鐵路：中西認識何其遠

（文章內容見下）

中國：
馬德裏到義烏：一杯橙汁的中歐鐵路夢
2015.02.01 第一財經日報 陳周錫

美國：
Spain to China by rail: A 21st Century Silk Road riddled with obstacles
2014.12.24 幸運雜誌

雙方的認識真是站在完全相反的方向。在2015中國經濟預測一文裏，說到西方常常用以推斷中國經濟陷入困境的最大問題，債務。幸運雜誌還是這個想法，懷疑投資效益。

對此，我相信中國的投資是對的，簡單用資金回報率是無法正確衡量一條連接兩地帶來的總體經濟利益的。


【附錄】
馬德裏到義烏：一杯橙汁的中歐鐵路夢

義烏中遠國際貨代公司負責人林輝寰有一個習慣，他在西班牙馬德裏出差時，每天都要喝上一杯新鮮的橙汁。

“10個鮮紅的大橙子，零售價也隻要五六歐元（1歐元約合7元人民幣），如果能運到中國，那肯定會有很大市場。”林輝寰告訴《第一財經日報》記者。

伴隨著“義新歐”（義烏—馬德裏）鐵路貨運班列的啟動，林輝寰或許會在不久的將來，坐在浙江義烏的辦公室裏喝著馬德裏的橙汁。

1月27日，首趟“義新歐”將從馬德裏啟程返回，預計2月中旬到達義烏。60個標準集裝箱，裝載著西班牙特色紅酒、橄欖油、火腿等產品，給中國農曆春節拜年。與此同時，第二趟義新歐班列所有貨物裝載完畢，即將從義烏發車開往馬德裏。

在 我國已形成中歐鐵路貨運係列班列中，“義新歐”是首個縣級市開通的線路。這背後是“一帶一路”引擎啟動的轟鳴聲。10月份，浙江省省長李強在義烏座談 召開“義新歐”班列建設情況會議時稱，“義新歐”是實施“一帶一路”重大戰略的重要內容，是深化義烏國際貿易綜合改革的重要抓手，符合國家、浙江發展戰 略。

“義新歐”運營方表示，計劃今後每月開通一列。

5年的準備
作為“義新歐”的運營方、義烏天盟實業投資有限公司（下稱“天盟公司”）為開通這條線路準備了5年。早在2010年，該公司就啟動申報設立義烏鐵路海關監管場所，對中亞市場貨運進行了調研、境外鐵路運營商、物流商合作等。

天盟公司董事長馮旭斌在接受《第一財經日報》記者專訪時說，僅2011年~2013年間，義烏出口中亞、俄羅斯的貿易額，年增長率均在150%以上，這還不包括周邊港口報關出口的義烏貨物，“有這樣充足的貨源支撐，堅定了我們做下去的決心。”

去年1月份，首趟“義新歐”連接中亞的班列開通，打通了義烏和中亞、俄羅斯的鐵路運輸通道，如今已實現每周一班常態化運行。馮旭斌說，由於市場化程度高，綜合成本低，貨物運輸可持續，這趟班列還是有效益的。
在中亞班列貨源穩定下，天盟公司開始籌備“義新歐”通往歐洲的鐵路貨運班列。馮旭斌調研發現，馬德裏與義烏商貿最為緊密，是義烏小商品在歐洲的集散中心。比如，馬德裏有一個客戶，一個月在義烏的采購貨物量達到近400個標準箱。

“當前，中歐貨運班列發展勢頭良好，‘義新歐’鐵路計劃從浙江義烏出發，抵達終點馬德裏，中方歡迎西方積極參與建設和運營，共同提升兩國經貿合作水平。”去年9月26日，國家主席習近平會見西班牙首相拉霍伊時表達了以上看法。

去年11月18日，首趟“義新歐”鐵路貨運班列開通，經新疆進入哈薩克斯坦，再經俄羅斯、白俄羅斯、波蘭、德國、法國，最後到達西班牙馬德裏，穿越7個國家，全長13000多公裏。

“義新歐運輸成本，高出海運一倍左右，但運輸時間卻下降了一倍，在20天之內。”林輝寰對本報記者說，他們為首趟班列組織貨源時，做了不少遊說工作，一些老客戶更多憑著信任關係參與。在客戶得到良好反饋後，如今他們組織貨運隻要一份清單說明。

據杭州海關統計，去年浙江外貿出口額同比增長8.8%，對全國增長的貢獻率18.3%。其中，義烏小商品出口同比增長30.3%，高出全省20多個百分點，對全省出口增長的貢獻率高達19.7%。

“義新歐”的增收效應
“義新歐”首趟班列到馬德裏後，馮旭斌接到很多進口商的電話，包括西班牙的紅酒、橄欖油廠家，溫州、寧波的進口貿易商，上海的機械和紅酒進口商，以及西班牙著名服飾品牌等。

“依托中歐班列，加大對中國的出口，這也是西班牙官員期望的。”馮旭斌說，以前義烏隻注重商品輸出，輪船空倉返回，成本太高，不利於國際貿易的平衡， “義新歐”開通有望改善這種局麵。在馮旭斌看來，目前中歐班列整體處於“市場培育期”，但由此產生的中歐商貿“蝴蝶效應”已開始顯現。

“義新歐”是繼渝新歐（重慶）、漢新歐（武漢）、蓉歐（成都）、鄭歐（鄭州）、蘇滿歐（蘇州）和合新歐（合肥）之後，浙江開通直達歐洲的首個貨運班列。一名行業 知情人對《第一財經日報》記者說，如今鄭新歐每周三列，運輸補貼下降75%左右，帶動鐵路汽車整車口岸獲批，順豐、菜鳥、DHL、UPS在鄭州設立中原總 部，以及正在籌備的德國工業園，都與鄭新歐的開通有緊密關係。

同時，渝新歐開通後，富士康最近在重慶的投資，每年增加上億稅收和上百億出口額。蘇滿歐運行，為太倉的德國工業園注入新的運輸通道。這就是為什麽這麽多城市紛紛要開通“義新歐”的主要原因。


Spain to China by rail: A 21st Century Silk Road riddled with obstacles

The longest rail link in the world sent a cargo train from China to Spain in early December. Impressive, but does it make any economic sense?

When the cargo train from the Chinese manufacturing hub of Yiwu arrived in Madrid on December 9, it was welcomed with a celebration of superlatives.

This “21st-century Silk Road” was the “longest rail link in the world,” longer than the Trans-Siberian railway and the Orient Express combined. And after spending 21 days covering more than 8,000 miles through China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, France and Spain, it did set a distance record.

The question is, does a commercial cargo service from China to Spain – especially one whose maiden voyage to Madrid included a container filled with kids’ spinning tops – make economic sense?

While it may seem like a fanciful adventure, extreme long distance rail service is an important piece of the international shipping arsenal. Use of the so-called Eurasian Land Bridge between China and Europe is well established at least as far as Germany, which receives some five trains a week.

The recently arrived 30-container train of cutlery, toys, and other consumer goods will return to China after Christmas loaded with wine, ham, and olive oil. In the first half of 2014, international container traffic on the Trans-Siberian rail line rose 8%, to 865,600 teu (20-foot equivalent units).

Long distance rail cargo splits the difference between airplane and boat delivery in terms of price and speed. According to Miklós Kopp, director of freight at the International Union of Railways, sending a 10-ton 40-foot container from Chengdu, China, to Lodz, Poland, takes 12 to 14 days by train, compared to several days by plane (if you include customs and delivery on each end) and some six weeks or longer by boat. The price tag comes to some $40,000 by air, compared to $10,000 by train, and as low as $5,000 by boat, Kopp says.

“If you go from the center of China to the center of Europe, it’s [rail travel] a good decision, though not as cheap as by sea,” says Kopp.

Still, carrying rail freight across the Eurasian Land Bridge comes with many problems, says Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor of global studies and geography at Hofstra University and lead author of the textbook The Geography of Transport Systems.

For one, freight trains in Europe carry less than half the cargo of such trains in the U.S. because low bridges, tunnels, and other infrastructure problems prohibit the use of double-stack containers. Another problem, Rodrigue says, is that the trip from Germany to Spain adds another week to the journey, cutting out some of rail’s speed and cost advantages.

“Spain is the worst place in Europe to do a train trip. It’s as far as you can get in continental Europe from Asia,” he says. “I think it’s a bit for show, to demonstrate the technology and capability to put on these services. But I have some doubts that these services are commercially feasible.”

Added to these problems, notes Joan Jané, a lecturer in production, technology and operations at Barcelona’s IESE Business School, is that the average winter high temperature in Kazakhstan is 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Such cold temperatures require special containers for sensitive electronic goods, not to mention Spain’s big exports.

“The train can spend six to eight days in places with very low temperatures,” he says. “And you can’t have frozen wine or ham.”

The three operators of the Spain train – InterRail, DB Schenker Rail, and Transfesa – are still deciding whether to add twice monthly China-to-Spain service in spring 2015. If they do, the service will likely have to take a different form to be profitable.

Higher travel costs mean that this kind of train service will be best for high-value goods like electronics and medicines, not cheap toys, says Libor Lochman, executive director of the Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (CER) trade association.

The service could also offer more competitive prices if it were regular and direct to Spain (instead of dropping off and picking up goods along the way), says Jané of IESE. And, he adds, operators could further lower costs by finding high-value goods to sell back to China, making sure containers do not return empty. That will be difficult, as Spain ran a €13 billion trade deficit with China in 2013. (Right now, many containers are sent back from Europe empty; others are filled with cars, car parts, and manufacturing equipment.)

Despite the hurdles, China-Europe rail trade will most likely grow in the coming years. The CER’s Lochman notes that, in the future, a new tunnel opened from the Asian to the European sides of Istanbul could be used for a new Eurasian Land Bridge. And, he says, while it will continue to be impossible to double stack containers, European rail freight authorities are trying to make rail more competitive by upgrading infrastructure to allow for longer, 1,000- to 1,500-meter trains, compared to the 600-meter trains used today.

Still, while traversing a gaggle of countries on the 21st-Century Silk Road may seem romantic (and perhaps even profitable), the method comes with geopolitical problems that planes and boats don’t have to contend with, says Rodrigue of Hoftra.

“You have a lot of border issues,” he says. “You have to think entering Russia with the embargo, that’s going to be a lot of fun.”