正文
1. ES finished the week with an inside bar indicating lower volatility which agrees with the range action we have experience in daily and 3-hour charts. The overall technical parameters for weekly remain bullish. PL is near 1811.2 support hence a test of this support will not change the bullish outlook at all. In fact a decline to 1750 won't do it either. Just to show how strong the weekly chart is and how much work bears have to do to end the current bull market.
2. Daily has also improved its bullish outlook today by printing an up candle sort of confirming yesterday's spinning bottom/doji like reversal. However it was done rather tentatively since ES could not close above the important PL decisively. The daily close (1850) is 1 point shy of PL since it is so close I won't count it as a 3 closes in a row below PL. Daily candle body is straddled between PL and TBL and so we are one step closer to get either a crossover or bounce off. Somehow I think big boys know too and they intentionally close the week at a price level that creates uncertainty and gives hope for both bulls and bears to ponder over the weekend. Technically daily is as neutral as you can get.
3. 3-Hour chart is very interesting now and has left us with a lot of information to digest. I have marked the potential Head/Shoulder pattern that I talked about on Thursday. Of course it has not played out yet however bulls have not done enough today for me to disqualify it either. It still can play out next week as long as the right shoulder is not violated. Head/shoulder or not we got a dome (round top) formation on going with a very bearish implication on the 3-hour time frame. Although we got an up day the trading action is not very encouraging, the morning rally failed to take ES higher than 58 (see my yesterday's call) or the upper trading band/previous channel resistance. Indicators for 3-H are neutral however PL < TBL < TOL which is a rather bearish posture. In addition there is a valid bearish setup that I have named as 5-step down currently ongoing and it remains valid as long as ES stays under 1860. If this setup plays out its1st target will be 1802, the 2nd 1788.5, the 3rd 1766.5, the 4th 1731 and the 5th 1709. I don't want to scare you. However I would like you to know that if bears can break 44 decisively and 34 can't stop them, these targets will be on the table. 1st to 3rd targets are very high probability events (>80%). If panic selling starts we could see the 5th target. Remember even ES gets to the 3rd target the bullish weekly outlook remain valid here. So don't get carried away.
4. Short term RS Levels: 81, 75, 66-7, 62-3, 56.5, 51-2, 48, 44-5, 41-2, 34.5, 28, 23， 11.5
Weekly
Daily
3-Hour
2. Daily has also improved its bullish outlook today by printing an up candle sort of confirming yesterday's spinning bottom/doji like reversal. However it was done rather tentatively since ES could not close above the important PL decisively. The daily close (1850) is 1 point shy of PL since it is so close I won't count it as a 3 closes in a row below PL. Daily candle body is straddled between PL and TBL and so we are one step closer to get either a crossover or bounce off. Somehow I think big boys know too and they intentionally close the week at a price level that creates uncertainty and gives hope for both bulls and bears to ponder over the weekend. Technically daily is as neutral as you can get.
3. 3-Hour chart is very interesting now and has left us with a lot of information to digest. I have marked the potential Head/Shoulder pattern that I talked about on Thursday. Of course it has not played out yet however bulls have not done enough today for me to disqualify it either. It still can play out next week as long as the right shoulder is not violated. Head/shoulder or not we got a dome (round top) formation on going with a very bearish implication on the 3-hour time frame. Although we got an up day the trading action is not very encouraging, the morning rally failed to take ES higher than 58 (see my yesterday's call) or the upper trading band/previous channel resistance. Indicators for 3-H are neutral however PL < TBL < TOL which is a rather bearish posture. In addition there is a valid bearish setup that I have named as 5-step down currently ongoing and it remains valid as long as ES stays under 1860. If this setup plays out its1st target will be 1802, the 2nd 1788.5, the 3rd 1766.5, the 4th 1731 and the 5th 1709. I don't want to scare you. However I would like you to know that if bears can break 44 decisively and 34 can't stop them, these targets will be on the table. 1st to 3rd targets are very high probability events (>80%). If panic selling starts we could see the 5th target. Remember even ES gets to the 3rd target the bullish weekly outlook remain valid here. So don't get carried away.
4. Short term RS Levels: 81, 75, 66-7, 62-3, 56.5, 51-2, 48, 44-5, 41-2, 34.5, 28, 23， 11.5
Weekly
Daily
3-Hour
評論
CCCCCC2010
2014-03-30 11:08:39
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悄悄話
Thanks
Ophelia
2014-03-29 19:36:45
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悄悄話
謝謝！！！
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