個人資料
正文

主力做莊及其回報率

(2013-09-10 06:22:50) 下一個
主力做莊及其回報率

主力做莊的優勢是擁有定價權並控製了市場。其盈利極限是市場上所有的Prey資金。當大眾沒錢供輸時,主力資金有即使再大的優勢、再多的閑置可供調用的資金,也無法盈利!

大資金即使坐莊,由於持倉總數巨大,收集和派發也具消耗時間和價格空間的固有規律,從ROI來說,並非想象地那麽高:
1,長時間吸籌有時間成本;
2,利用盤外資源有隱性成本;
3,即使坐莊成功,真正的加權平均派發價格並不高,因為派發是分批的。比如,行情最低股價$10到最高$20,平均持籌成本可能在$12;拉升過程還有拉升成本,到$16可能就開始一邊買拉升股價,同時一邊派發賣,表現為Effective Selling=賣多於買。到頂點$20後,再一路More Effective Selling,停在前支撐線$16左右震蕩派發,主要派發價格區大致就是$16,所以,估算ROI不過是$4/$12=33%,而股價從最低到最高卻是翻倍!真正的原因在於,主力做莊的運作和盈利模式與跟隨資金的模式完全不同。

所以,大資金雖占盡一切優勢肯定賺,卻也辛苦!比較而言,在有意識地利用主力做盤過程的規律和特點前提下,聰明的小資金有取得高ROI的機會和可能性,因而,可對大資金的占盡除船小好掉頭之外的一切優勢也大可心平氣和(Martin S. Schwartz ROI非常高,成立Hedge Fund後,資金量相對於交易方法的市場容量顯得過大而ROI嚴重減低,後來毅然退還部分客戶資金,保持總資金量$80M時穩定地得心應手)。

主力資金或莊家,比如,Buffett, Soros, Rogers, Peter Lynch宣揚價值投資,宣揚市場整體是客觀的、機械運行的、隨機漫步的、混沌無序的、無生命的Entity,卻從不揭示市場人與人之間博弈的本質,且博弈類型是:專業運動員兼裁判員 vs 業餘兒童選手 之間的遊戲!

包括貨幣政策、股市“投資”和期貨操作在內的一整套金融運行和銀行體係,是最具蓄意欺騙性的。西方社會是金權天下,金錢操縱權力,進而統治全社會,經濟和金融上的欺騙性遠遠超過政治上的欺騙性(西方社會在經濟和金融上包裝神話、運作個人崇拜、鼓吹社會公平性和個人努力的重要性;東方社會在政治上包裝神話、運作個人崇拜、鼓吹血統高貴論和獨裁專製合理性:東方社會的政治欺騙性,遠遠超過經濟和金融上的欺騙性!)。

超級主力能把AAPL從$2做到$700,把BIDU從$25做到$1,600,把AMZN從$6做到$300,畢竟屬於極少數,動用的盤外資源和支付的隱性成本也必定巨大。

比如,Icahn與AAPL CEO Tim Cook談Buyback Program的消息在Tuesday, Aug 13, 2013見諸於媒體。當天,AAPL就利用該消息從$46x大陽線越過技術位200SMA $470直線上漲到$490,隨後幾個交易日續漲到$51x:

Tuesday, Aug 13, 2013

Icahn discloses Apple position, calls for bigger buyback; shares jump
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1218902

Had a nice conversation with Tim Cook today. Discussed my opinion that a larger buyback should be done now. We plan to speak again shortly.

Carl Icahn on Twitter: "We currently have a large position in APPLE. We believe the company to be extremely undervalued. Spoke to Tim Cook today."

More from Icahn: "Discussed my opinion that a larger buyback should be done now. We plan to speak again shortly."

Apple (AAPL +4.1%) shares have jumped on the disclosure. The company added $50B to its buyback authorization in April.

Update: Statement from Apple: "We appreciate the interest and investment of all our shareholders. Tim [Cook] had a very positive conversation with Mr. Icahn today."

BREAKING- Carl Icahn Has Large Position In Apple (AAPL)
AUGUST 13, 2013 2:28 PM
http://breakingfinancenews.com/breaking/breaking-carl-icahn-has-large-position-in-apple-aapl/2676/

"Yesterday, Icahn Enterprises (NYSE: IEP) announced that it would start using Twitter to share material information."

主動Release的信息 ,都是蓄意令大眾知道的信息!

同時,AAPL還有個著名的空頭主力Bill Ackman:

Ackman: Missed AAPL Below $100, And Still too Hard to Value
February 13, 2013, 6:31 P.M. ET
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/02/13/ackman-missed-aapl-below-100-and-still-too-hard-to-value/

價值投資者,尤其是業餘水平的價值投資者,就要好好想想Ackman的這句話:
" I think it’s a well-managed company, and one of the great brands of the world, and there’s a lot of affection for Apple, but I think it’s hard to know [how to value the business]."

Bill Ackman Won’t Buy Into Mysterious Apple
February 14, 2013
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/bill-ackman-wont-buy-into-mysterious-apple.html/?a=viewall

在AAPL從2012年9月的$700一路連續壓盤派發大跌,至2013年2月中旬,曆經5個月跌到$46x後,Ackman出麵支持空方、並遏阻多方在當時的波段局部低位購買。由於大資金的長線戰略和波段戰役都需要空間和時間,Ackman發表聲明後,AAPL繼續續跌了:在時間上是2個月,在空間上超過15%並且打穿了$400重要整數位、最低到達過經典技術數字位$389.xx.

這都是派發的操作形式並支付了隱性成本。

就如John Alfred Paulson是著名的黃金多頭主力,為什麽認為他在黃金大跌時就真的賠錢了呢?

Gold Bull Paulson Cuts SPDR Stake by Half in Bear Market
Aug 15, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html

"Paulson & Co., the largest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product for the metal, pared its stake to 10.2 million shares in the three months ended June 30 from 21.8 million at the end of the first quarter, according to a government filing yesterday. The New York-based firm, which manages $18 billion, cut its ownership for the first time since 2011 “due to a reduced need for hedging."

2013年6月28日星期五,是截止6月30日季度的最後交易日,黃金價格在當日創局部最低點!由此說來,這昔日的黃金多頭超人賣在了最低點!

這種過家家輿論操作手法高麽?

即使Paulson自身的Fund真的賠錢了,他收取的隱性收入也會Cover該成本。

多空都可以盈利,關鍵的是Timing。他們就是在盤麵需要的Timing時出來說話操縱大眾心理和思維!更可人為憑空創造理由達到盤麵需要的目的:

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Gets The Famous “Icahn Lift”
August 26th, 2013
http://etfdailynews.com/2013/08/26/apple-inc-aapl-gets-the-famous-icahn-lift/

If you owned Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock , you saw a 5% jump in shares on August 13, when Carl Icahn tweeted that he held “a large” position in Apple.

Same with Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), when shares spiked as much as 14%, back on October 31, 2012, when Icahn’s regulatory findings revealed he held a tidy 10% stake in the company.

So, what’s the secret to pocketing these double-digit gains?

Both came about thanks to the moves of one legendary investor, one “self-made man” worth about $20 billion today…

The good news: He’s not done, and you have a chance to profit from him, as we’ll see.

任何大規模行情都是精心策劃的有組織、有紀律、層次清晰、分工明確的集團資金大規模殲滅戰!
[ 打印 ]
閱讀 ()評論 (0)
評論
目前還沒有任何評論
登錄後才可評論.