反省交易：回顧2010

反省交易：回顧2010

2010年是以交易為生以來收益較好的一年。日常帳戶ROI+213%，累積帳戶ROI+88%。差別的原因在於日常帳戶用Margin，而累積帳戶不用Margin。

回顧整個2010年，最大亮點在於正確判斷出5月初的Fat Finger Flash Down是大洗盤，並且在發生的當時對判斷就有較大的把握。隨後在接近5月底時，勇於用Margin增倉。在6月下旬至7月初，指數連跌11交易日並擊穿當時1140鐵底時，堅持盤麵判斷，並堅信如此深幅的劇烈洗盤之後，將會更高。由於所有持倉都是強勢股，指數的深度調整使得賬麵利潤縮水並不大，也有利於保持了好的心態。並且在整個9月、整個10月和11月上旬，連續用新盈利產生的Margin Power增倉，最終使得Margin滿倉（3X）。

需要提高的地方在於，進入12月後，由於判斷指數將創新高，認為持倉的強勢股會繼續領漲。但事實證明，整個12月份的行情是大盤股行情，對於中小股，即使是一直持續強勢的中小股，12月份並沒有走出強於指數的行情。更由於有些持倉開始了深度調整，使得賬麵有些不必要的縮水。而實際上，在12月的第一周指數創新高時，中小股整體上沒有跟進，就已有了警覺。但警覺是不夠的，當時就應該調整倉位。

展望2011，貨幣供應的寬鬆將導致美股繼續強勢。

[毗古澹]

Thanks for quick response. to be honest, I am not convinced by your explanation.

what I think is that your 5/29 trade with margin should be closed on the 2nd or 3rd day of those 11 down days. this will enable you to get in again to trade the consolidation range or swing long in September when the consolidation is broken.

No one sure it is a trap or not, we have to wait for the market to confirm it as Livermore said in his book.

He also said:"I never buy on reactions or go short on rallies".

anyway, hope you would share more your actual trades and like to learn.

[FreeTrader]

For your questions below.

Chart-reading is just part of the Technical Analysis.

There was an on-the-fly post at the timing that the market was assumed terrible :

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201006&postID=31051

My reading was that it's a big bear trap because there was an 11 days' down-in-a-row while the down size was not much amid the fact that some down days started with high open.

These two newly written shall also be helpful:

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201103&postID=26437
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201103&postID=26808

So, what will follow after a big bear trap? Must be a sizzling bull trend! So, adding long position is quite comfortably certain!

[ayan]

I have the same question. Looks like your entry is based on key support. When it's broken, should you exit to protect capital? I had bloody lesson for not setting up stop loss.

Thanks for great articles. I am often thrilled when reading. Truly fantastic experience. I hope to figure out something more executable based on your insightful information.

[毗古澹]

http://i54.tinypic.com/el1728.gif
請看圖. 幾點問題如下,望有閑回複.

5/25日對應標記23是一個支撐,當日一長下影收陽,以MARGIN增倉,足見膽識,但不知隨後是否有短差交易行為?還是一直持有到標記31破位低點1011.37?

在1011.37,您是真的堅信嗎? 止損位設在了哪裏呢? 畢竟,以專業投機原理的趨勢定義,轉勢幾乎可以確立.

讚整個 9 10 11月增倉!

另外,唐能通係列,在下一直認為是垃圾,與陳江挺的書差太遠,詫異樓主會推崇.

[whzdf]

謝謝！祝新年好！