汪翔
隨便想想
美國房地產負資產最嚴重的十個州
一場金融危機，以追尋美國夢開始，以搞定安樂窩為目標，在一個全世界都狂熱的歲月，沒有人在乎人們的經濟承受能力。在美國學習經濟學的人都明白那個“可負擔得起”的廣告語，實際上，在多數情形，你最終得到的卻是“負擔不起”！
經濟學理論的忽悠，和商家為了各自利益的配合，造就了美國當前嚴重的房地產市場危機的持續。從直覺來看，既然在泡沫時代造了大量的房子，那麽，在今後很多年就會有大量的人們，無法承擔得起的房子在市場上像幽靈一樣徘徊，和吊人胃口。
不同的是，現在，即使利息率非常之低，房價也非常的有吸引力，而且還很容易殺個好價，但是，能夠獲得貸款的人卻還是為數極少。你隻能看，不能摸的日子，過起來自然不會很舒暢。特別是在銀行加強了貸款發放標準的審核之後。
信譽就是價值，是對每個人都價值巨大的無形資產。在享受了一次“便宜”的“免費午餐”，做了一場“白日夢”式的房主之後，很多人可能最終還是沒有搞明白，為什麽自己需要在乎那個看不見摸不著的“信譽”？！
下麵這些來自宏觀的數據，對於我們理解美國的房地產現狀具有很大的價值。比如說，即使是在名列第十名的弗吉尼亞，在印象中經濟應該非常發達的這個富裕州，總體看，4285億美元的地產市場市值，房貸占有3075億美元，占到71.8%。“資不抵債”的比例為23%，得益於中間房價的下跌隻有區區16.7%（從巔峰到現在的平均值）。
感覺上，這個州得益於就近華盛頓特區，和高科技的繁榮，對於房價的下跌，應該有很強的抗跌性。但是，即使如此，他們那裏的“負翁”也還是能夠被排在前十名！
最差的內華達州，值得自豪的，除了賭城拉斯維加斯之外，恐怕就隻有沙漠和那裏的毒蛇了。有一年，我曾經開車帶著來個國內的老朋友，在拉斯維加斯附近的沙漠上遊蕩了好幾個小時，想找點有趣的地方，結果卻發現了好幾個軍方的檢查站！
就是在那裏，在那個人人都很瘋狂的買房年代，很多自己認識的人，也居然帶著一袋袋的綠鈔票，趕去那裏，期望自己能夠成為淘金的幸運者。
結果，幾年下來，原本富裕的日子，成為打水漂漂。最終，很多人選擇放棄房子，留下鑰匙，一走了之。即使是從總體數據看，966億沒有的地產價值，也還是不及1099億美元的銀行貸款來的多。如果將地產價值理解為合理的，並且，理解這種價值的80%為安全的貸款額度，那麽，銀行在那裏的貸款虧損，將還有326億美元的苦果在等著。
再者，在美國賭場到處開花的今天，拉斯維加斯的日子，隻會越來越差，不會再有昔日的風光了。任何期待回光返照的人，最終收獲的，可能就是苦酸的白日夢。
所以說，銀行的苦日子，還遠沒有過去。而銀行都依然過的這麽苦，整個經濟的完全複蘇，也會跟隨著增加了很多的變數。
內華達州中間房價從最高峰到現在平均下跌了60%，61%的住戶是“負翁”，由此你能夠看出人們的愚昧和銀行的愚蠢，外加華爾街的貪婪。（具體的金融危機來源什麽的，有興趣看看我的《危機與敗局》（商務印書館，2010年版））。
當然，這裏給出的宏觀數據可能和你看到的微觀數據有點不一致。但是，我覺得，對於你理解房地產的大局，還是很有幫助的。
為了理解福羅裏達州的地產現狀，我曾經在電話裏和長期住在那裏的一位女士交談過：她說，30%的下跌還是有的，50%是有點太誇張了一點。
這種差別的存在，還是得看小區。同時，還和人們內心深處的希望有關係：很多人不願意麵對現實，希望實際上正在發生的，比自己眼睛看到的，要好些，借此來自我安慰。
繼續借花獻佛！
States Sunk by Underwater Mortgages
March 6, 2012
10. Virginia
> Pct. homes underwater: 23%
> Total property value: $428.46 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $307.48 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 16.7% (21st-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 4.1% (ninth-smallest percentage)
According to CoreLogic’s Q4 2011 report, 23% of Virginia’s mortgaged homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their property is worth. An additional 6% are on the verge of being underwater. Compared to many of the markets that have large numbers of upside-down homeowners, Virginia was not one of the worst-hit markets by the housing collapse. Despite the high percentage of underwater mortgages, the rate of mortgaged homes in delinquency or foreclosure is one of the lowest in the country. One of the reasons for this is the ability of homeowners to remain solvent. Virginia has an unemployment rate of just 6.2%, the 11th lowest in the country, as well as low poverty and high median income.
9. Ohio
> Pct. homes underwater: 23.9%
> Total property value: $310.62 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $238.20 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 14.4% (23rd-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 6.9% (14th-largest percentage)
Of the 2.2 million mortgages in the state of Ohio, more than 525 million have negative equity, and an additional 134 million are on the brink of being underwater. As of the end of 2011, 6.9% of homes in the state were either currently in foreclosure or have been delinquent for 90 days or more on payments. The total value of all mortgaged homes in the state is $310 billion, and outstanding mortgage debt for those homes is $238 billion. This loan-to-value ratio, 76.7%, is the sixth highest in the country.
8. Maryland
> Pct. homes underwater: 24.3%
> Total property value: $418.34 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $296.81 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 23.7% (12th-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 8.0% (tied for fifth-largest percentage)
Like those in Virginia, Maryland’s residents appear to be in good financial shape, despite the fact that nearly one in four mortgaged homes are underwater. Median income in the state is the highest in the country and the poverty rate is the third lowest. However, this has not been enough to save a large percentage of state residents from financial troubles. Some 8% of mortgaged homes are either in foreclosure or at least 90 days delinquent on their mortgages, tied for the fifth-highest rate in the country.
7. Idaho
> Pct. homes underwater: 25.0%
> Total property value: $49.76 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $36.58 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 29.3% (sixth-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 5.2% (20th-smallest percentage)
Like Maryland, nearly one in every four Idaho homes are underwater, although the financial situations of the two states could not be more different. Idaho has the 13th-lowest median income in the country, above-average unemployment and a poverty rate of 14.3% (compared to Maryland’s 9.1%). Since its peak in the first quarter of 2011, home prices in the state of Idaho have fallen nearly 30%. According to Gallup’s recent consumer confidence poll, Idaho residents had the third-lowest confidence in the national economy of any state.
6. California
> Pct. homes underwater: 29.9%
> Total property value: $2.73 trillion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $1.94 trillion
> Median home value drop from peak: 46.7% (third-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 7.0% (12th-largest percentage)
As of the fourth quarter of 2011, there was $8.7 trillion in mortgage debt nationwide — $1.94 trillion of that, or 22%, is located in California. Nearly 30% of California’s mortgages are underwater, and 16.1% of mortgages are worth less than 80% of their debt. From its prerecession peak in the first quarter of 2006, home values have fallen 46.7% and are projected to fall an additional 4.2% by the third quarter of this year.
5. Georgia
> Pct. homes underwater: 33.0%
> Total property value: $306.59 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $252.81 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 26% (10th-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 8.0% (tied for fifth-largest percentage)
One-third of mortgage owners in Georgia have more mortgage debt than their homes are worth. Since the home values peaked in the state in 2007, prices have declined 26%. The state has the ninth-most mortgaged homes in the country and even more homes underwater. At 540,000 it has the fourth-most underwater mortgages of any state. Georgia’s unemployment rate is the ninth-highest in the country.
4. Michigan
> Pct. homes underwater: 34.7%
> Total property value: $198.05 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $165.45 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 30.1% (fifth-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 6.5% (19th-largest percentage)
Michigan’s economy and housing market was already in bad shape leading up to the recession, and things have only gotten worse. The state experienced a net loss in population between 2000 and 2010, the only state that lost residents during the period. Unemployment has improved somewhat in the past few years, but it is still the tenth-highest rate in the U.S. Michigan home value began to decline before the recession hit, after peaking in 2005. Since that time, home prices have dropped by 33%.
3. Florida
> Pct. homes underwater: 44.2%
> Total property value: $809.95 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $706.00 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 44.8% (fourth-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 17.4% (the largest percentage)
No state has a larger gross vacancy rate than Florida, standing at more than 20%. When the housing market flourished, the state geared up for the impending retirement of millions of baby boomers by constructing tens of thousands of new homes. When the market collapsed, real estate investments in the state were hit hard. Florida’s home value has plummeted by more than 40% — the second largest drop in the country — and nearly one in two mortgaged homes are underwater.
2. Arizona
> Pct. homes underwater: 48.3%
> Total property value: $243.02 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $226.22 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 47.9% (second-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 7.1% (11th-largest percentage)
Through the first half of the decade, states like Nevada, Utah and Arizona experienced record growth in population, business and, as a result, new construction. Conditions reversed in 2008, and the states that once led in property value growth and employment, like Arizona, fell through the floor. In the third quarter of 2006, Arizona had median home value of $254,655. To date, that value has dropped by more than $100,000. Some 48.3% of all mortgaged homes are now underwater.
1. Nevada
> Pct. homes underwater: 61.1%
> Total property value: $96.57 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $109.94 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 60% (the biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 13.4% (second-largest percentage)
Like Arizona, Nevada’s property value has plummeted since the middle of the decade, losing more than $150,000 on average (more than 50%) in just five years. Nevada is also the only state in the country in which total homeowner debt is actually higher than the total property value of owned homes — nearly two in three mortgaged homes are underwater. As of the end of 2011, 13.4% of mortgages were either already in the foreclosure process or more than 90 days delinquent on their payments.
-Michael B. Sauter
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