高盛欺詐案跟蹤報道

高盛欺詐案跟蹤報道

 

            從今天開始，我專門開辟了一個高盛欺騙案專題跟蹤報道。我的主要動機還是收集和提供信息，那些我認為有些價值或者與眾不同的消息。這裏提供的許多觀點隻是作者自己的個人看法，並不一定代表我的意見。

對於高盛和鮑爾森“同流合汙”欺騙投資者的過程的深入理解，你恐怕得先好好讀讀我最近在商務印書館出版的那本《危機與敗局》了。在那裏，我對美國房市泡沫產生的曆史根源和現實必然性做了深入係統的分析，是基於非常嚴格的經濟數據給出的。這也是我第一次站在經濟學家的角度來觀察和思考問題。其它大多數時間，我都是站在投資者的角度來看問題的。

更為重要的是，我對CDO，CDS，ABS這些金融衍生品的概念也進行了係統全麵的介紹，並且還在這種解釋之後，係統地分析了這種種投資手段的致命弱點，和這些弱點之所以沒有被投資者注意到的內在原因。其中就包括投資銀行和信用評級機構為了一己之利對投資者的故意忽悠。對於鮑爾森大賺賣空次貸債券錢的過程、手段，也進行了詳細的分析和說明。在那種分析過程中，我已經意識到，在很多地方，鮑爾森似乎是在有意識地掩蓋什麽。因為，根據他所提供的信息，獲得那麽巨大的利潤，似乎不是那麽一回事。一方麵，風險應該比他自己所描述的要大很多，再者，他所說出來的手段似乎還遠遠不夠。作為一個投資者，我對此不是太能理解。而一般來說，基於普通的邏輯難以理解的投資手段，很可能就是忽悠的結果。不要相信在金融投資領域真的就有超天才。長期投資成功所基於的理念最後實際上是一樣的。如果誰在自吹自己的超天才，那麽，他（她）背後很可能就有不可告人的秘密存在。

在高盛事件暴露之後，我的這些疑問似乎也有合乎邏輯的答案了。

我的這本書估計是目前關於這一事件最係統和完整的分析著作了。

如果讀者發現什麽錯誤的地方，請及時指正。在此先謝謝了。

如果閱讀上有困難，請到我的新浪博客，那裏沒有亂碼：

http://blog.sina.com.cn/wangxiangusa

附錄：Bank Shares Under Pressure On Derivatives Deal, Goldman Hearing

 

 4/27/10 | Dow Jones

By Kerry Grace Benn

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Bank shares showed little reaction early Tuesday after key Senate Democrats reached a deal to regulate over-the-counter derivatives and ahead of the day's testimony from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) executives about the extent to which the investment bank benefited from the housing market's collapse.

The deal reached late Monday by Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and Senate Agriculture Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln (D., Ark), would require many products to be executed on trading platforms and force banks to spin off their swaps desks in order to receive federal assistance.

"I think this end version is a surprise to a lot of people," said Matthew Magidson, vice chairman of the Derivatives Practice Group at New York-based law firm Lowenstein Sandler. He said he thinks many people thought the provision that will likely force the big banks to eliminate their derivatives-trading desks was going to disappear from the bill, but it looks like it's now been accepted.

It's not quite clear what the proposed bill will mean--whether banks could spin off their swaps desk into a subsidiary that's not guaranteed, or whether they're going to have to divest themselves of the desks entirely, he said.

In recent trading, shares of Goldman Sachs edged up 1% to $153.56. The stock is down about 35% since the SEC filed the fraud lawsuit on April 16. Morgan Stanley (MS) fell 0.2% to $30.85. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) increased 0.8% to $44.22, while Citigroup Inc. (C) fell 1.7% to $4.53 and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) rose 0.6% to $18.16.

"If they have to divest, it's going to be a big deal," because derivatives are a very profitable area for the banks, Magidson said. Many banks loan money at a floating Libor-based rate, and offer the ability to swap that rate back to being fixed. If that isn't allowed at the banks, someone else will have to step in and offer that service, he said, adding he's not sure who the right people would be to do that job.

Banks could also face more competition from the bill. European banks such as Credit Suisse Group (CS, CSGN.VX), Deutsche Bank AG (DB, DBK.XE) and HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC, HSBA.LN, 0005.HK) would continue to operate on an integrated model, because they don't have insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Magidson said.

In recent trading, Deutsche Bank fell 2.2% to $71.57, while American depositary shares of Credit Suisse and HSBC slid 0.8% to $47.20 and 2.2% to $51.80, respectively.

Derivatives are contracts between two parties that can be used both by investors speculating on future prices or by companies seeking to hedge against risks such as interest-rate fluctuations or price moves in commodities. Banks and large financial firms are the biggest sellers of swaps, but the near collapse of American International Group Inc. (AIG) tied to its sale of credit-default swaps has raised concern about the risks they can spread to the system.

But even the new plan in Congress has its risks, Magidson said. Central clearinghouses could face the same woes that banks did two years ago if there's another event like the housing market decline that hurts the value of the swaps.

"There's going to be a clear need to bail out a clearinghouse," he said. "Where you could potentially let one dealer fail," you can't do that with a clearinghouse.

Meanwhile, investors were also jittery ahead of Tuesday afternoon's spotlight on Goldman, when Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein and Fabrice Tourre, a vice president at the center of the controversy, will testify before a Senate committee just days after the Securities and Exchange Commission accused the investment bank and Tourre of securities fraud related to the sale of collateralized debt obligations.

The SEC charges against Goldman sparked talk of heftier financial reform and have provided Congress with extra impetus to get a deal done.

Although the derivatives bill has received some support from two key Republicans, including Sen. Olympia Snowe (R., Maine) and Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), Senate Democrats were still unable to garner enough support on a procedural vote Monday that would advance the broader financial bill forward.

-By Kerry Grace Benn, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2353; [e-mail]