從巴菲特持倉看分散投資

從巴菲特持倉看分散投資

牛經滄海

2/4/2017

分散投資是華爾街唯一的免費午餐。假如遇上一支股票季報不好下跌20％，能否承受這個衝擊？如果占倉位5％，那麽持倉價值縮水1％，問題應該不大；如果占總倉10％，下跌2％，有點微傷；如果占總倉20％，下跌4％，至少算輕傷；如果占50％，則下降10％，無疑是重創。

分散持倉不止看股票個數，占比，波動率，與大市相關性（貝他），內部相關性，市值大小，行業波動率，投資人風險承受能力等多項截麵。以下看看巴菲特是如何擺平這些因素的，應該不無禆益。

1.       數據說話By Numbers （As of 9/30/2016, latest published data available）

 

19,000: Number of all U.S. stock

4,000:    Number of actively traded stocks

500:        Number of S&P 500 component stocks, representing over 70% of total U.S. equities

52:          Number of Warren Buffet’s Portfolio stocks

8:            Number of top stocks in Warren Buffet’s Portfolio, representing 80% of his holdings

3:            Number of top sectors in Warren Buffet’s Portfolio, representing 80% of his holdings

2:            Number of keywords in Warren Buffet’s Portfolio: Consumers and Services

1:            Number of stock needed to simulate Warren Buffet’s Portfolio: ？

巴菲特8支重倉占據80%的權重. 由此可見，持多少股是一回事，但核心持倉應該不要太多。短期交易除外，滄海目前核心重倉10支約占70%，一般倉位10支約占25%. 倉位相對分散的原因主要有二：一是持股及行業相對波動較大，二是對持股的遠景預期把握較不確定，承受短期（一個經濟周期以內）波動的承受力較脆弱。大白話就是錢不夠。

2.       巴菲特重倉一覽Top Positions

 

Symbol	Company	Sector	Industry
KHC	The Kraft Heinz Co	Consumer Defensive	Consumer Packaged Goods
WFC	Wells Fargo & Co	Financial Services	Banks
KO	Coca-Cola Co	Consumer Defensive	Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
IBM	International Business Machines Corp	Technology	Application Software
AXP	American Express Co	Financial Services	Credit Services
PSX	Phillips 66	Energy	Oil & Gas - Refining & Marketing
USB	US Bancorp	Financial Services	Banks
MCO	Moody's Corporation	Industrials	Business Services

 

Symbol	Company	Price ($)	Market Cap ($M)	Value ($1000)	Percentage (%)	% of Company
KHC	The Kraft Heinz Co	87.37	107,039	29,147,573	22.6	26.8
WFC	Wells Fargo & Co	54.22	272,309	21,241,306	16.5	9.6
KO	Coca-Cola Co	40.94	178,336	16,928,001	13.1	9.3
IBM	International Business Machines Corp	166.09	157,927	12,903,752	10.0	8.5
AXP	American Express Co	76.16	69,706	9,709,150	7.5	16.6
PSX	Phillips 66	83.72	43,606	6,499,571	5.1	15.5
USB	US Bancorp	51.25	87,108	3,648,359	2.8	5.0
MCO	Moody's Corporation	94.00	17,973	2,671,244	2.1	12.9

 

3.       Sector Diversification or Concentration

 

請閱讀更多我的博客文章>>>

Disclaim： For general information exchange only, not for investment recommendations Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by牛經滄海@2017. This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. 牛經滄海shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas.